Winnipeg Jets select F Nikolaj Ehlers (1/9) (signs 3-year ELC)

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Evil Little

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If we looked at him now with our homerism dialed back just a bit just how good is he really? I keep getting the sense here that people are deliberately restraining themselves a little. Comparisons to Bure and Mogilny aren't very restrained but then I will see projections of him on our 2nd or even 3rd line when he arrives. I guess I am contradicting myself in a way but I do get a strange vibe of people not wanting to get carried away. It is like they are saying he will be like Bure, Selanne or Mogilny in style but at a lower level. Most here seem to agree that he was a steal at 9th and we should have finished 6th and drafted him there. Any 'realistic' chance that he should have been higher than 6th? I'm not asking what people might think is his low probability ceiling. That is obviously very high. I am asking what is his likely level? PPG? Higher? Calder? Hart? Ross? None of those?

I think there's a notion--true or not--that he never made it to the top five in part because of:

-size, which is, as Garret has dubbed it, a market inefficiency
-he's not "from Ontaria and he doesn't use Dougie Gilmore's number...you kids out there....!" :thumbu:

Further, and more specifically to Ehlers:

-the fact that he'd only played one CHL season
-since-debunked perceptions of his point totals being inflated (or just sheltered) by Drouin
-the fact that he was a sharp riser; would he have gone even higher in the rankings had the draft not taken place when it did, even on the same body of work?

Would he be a top-five pick if the draft were held tomorrow? Not sure (frankly, I don't think any of them have done anything to fall out). I'm confident that he wouldn't be ninth, though.

(Thanks Benning.)
 

razorsedge

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Another Bure-esque thing he does is handle the puck at top speed,

This is the true definition of the term "he can dangle". Irritates me how much people misuse that word.

I'm pretty excited to see the type of player he can become. Evander Kane speed but can finish.
 

ps241

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If we looked at him now with our homerism dialed back just a bit just how good is he really? I keep getting the sense here that people are deliberately restraining themselves a little. Comparisons to Bure and Mogilny aren't very restrained but then I will see projections of him on our 2nd or even 3rd line when he arrives. I guess I am contradicting myself in a way but I do get a strange vibe of people not wanting to get carried away. It is like they are saying he will be like Bure, Selanne or Mogilny in style but at a lower level. Most here seem to agree that he was a steal at 9th and we should have finished 6th and drafted him there. Any 'realistic' chance that he should have been higher than 6th? I'm not asking what people might think is his low probability ceiling. That is obviously very high. I am asking what is his likely level? PPG? Higher? Calder? Hart? Ross? None of those?

That was the quirky thing about this last draft (2014) going in the top end picks were "good" but not projected to be be special by most years standards......what was so odd this year is that I heard rumblings from quite a few "experts" that the top player this year could come from anywhere in the top 10 to 12. I Believe it was because of the high ceilings on kids like Nylander, Ehlers, Fiala, and Ritchie (to a lesser extent). These are kids that perhaps carrried more risk but also had really high reward levels.

I don't know yet on Nik and I will keep level on him but from a style perspective I do see Bure. I have only felt this excited about one other prospect and that was Trouba in his draft +1 season. Still needs to adapt his game a bit but the raw talent appears to be pretty special.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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That was the quirky thing about this last draft (2014) going in the top end picks were "good" but not projected to be be special by most years standards......what was so odd this year is that I heard rumblings from quite a few "experts" that the top player this year could come from anywhere in the top 10 to 12. I Believe it was because of the high ceilings on kids like Nylander, Ehlers, Fiala, and Ritchie (to a lesser extent). These are kids that perhaps carrried more risk but also had really high reward levels.

I don't know yet on Nik and I will keep level on him but from a style perspective I do see Bure. I have only felt this excited about one other prospect and that was Trouba in his draft +1 season. Still needs to adapt his game a bit but the raw talent appears to be pretty special.

Well that's what I think but a part of me wants to believe that he is close to that 'generational talent' level. Not quite but as close as Drouin and MacKinnon. When I am not restraining myself because I know I have a tendency to overreact from time to time I'm thinking Drouin and MacKinnon. Them all coming from the Mooseheads is not what suggests that to me it is some of the video I saw of those 2 compared to what I have seen of Ehlers. But of course there is always the unknown. I have seen enough gold-plated, can't miss prospects come and go that I maintain a little skepticism right to the end.
 

ps241

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Well that's what I think but a part of me wants to believe that he is close to that 'generational talent' level. Not quite but as close as Drouin and MacKinnon. When I am not restraining myself because I know I have a tendency to overreact from time to time I'm thinking Drouin and MacKinnon. Them all coming from the Mooseheads is not what suggests that to me it is some of the video I saw of those 2 compared to what I have seen of Ehlers. But of course there is always the unknown. I have seen enough gold-plated, can't miss prospects come and go that I maintain a little skepticism right to the end.

I guess my question is if Ehlers had played 2 seasons in the CHL and if he was 15 pounds heavier where would he have been drafted? We absolutley may have backed into a great one but I will need to see him at the next level playing a two way NHL game.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I guess my question is if Ehlers had played 2 seasons in the CHL and if he was 15 pounds heavier where would he have been drafted? We absolutley may have backed into a great one but I will need to see him at the next level playing a two way NHL game.

In TC he looked special but he also looked like he was playing a kids game. Just an impression I came away with once I calmed down. Will he be learning to play a smarter team game this season carrying the Mooseheads on his back? Maybe, he is pretty smart. Hard to say. The 2 way game might be a concern or he might just play D by scoring goals.
 

allan5oh

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In TC he looked special but he also looked like he was playing a kids game. Just an impression I came away with once I calmed down. Will he be learning to play a smarter team game this season carrying the Mooseheads on his back? Maybe, he is pretty smart. Hard to say. The 2 way game might be a concern or he might just play D by scoring goals.

That's what I felt too. He made some sick plays, tape to tape backhand saucer type plays. But then he wouldn't even come in our zone to support the puck. Sometimes he would float right on the blue line.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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That's what I felt too. He made some sick plays, tape to tape backhand saucer type plays. But then he wouldn't even come in our zone to support the puck. Sometimes he would float right on the blue line.

By the end of pre-season I was just a little disappointed but realistically ready to accept that he wasn't ready. Next year I am expecting him to be able to play in the NHL but Chevy will (probably rightly) judge that he will be better served by yet another year in junior. That could very easily change of course but it is what I am preparing myself for.
 

ps241

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In TC he looked special but he also looked like he was playing a kids game. Just an impression I came away with once I calmed down. Will he be learning to play a smarter team game this season carrying the Mooseheads on his back? Maybe, he is pretty smart. Hard to say. The 2 way game might be a concern or he might just play D by scoring goals.

That's what I felt too. He made some sick plays, tape to tape backhand saucer type plays. But then he wouldn't even come in our zone to support the puck. Sometimes he would float right on the blue line.

By the end of pre-season I was just a little disappointed but realistically ready to accept that he wasn't ready. Next year I am expecting him to be able to play in the NHL but Chevy will (probably rightly) judge that he will be better served by yet another year in junior. That could very easily change of course but it is what I am preparing myself for.

Yea he was tantalizing but he was playing a junior game still which makes some sense since he just finished his rookie CHL season.

What makes me feel great is I have zero doubt he will be very coachable and adapt. Honestly he might have been able to do it on the fly this season but another year in juniors was probably the right call. He has had to adjust to being the man and being the nightly target in Halifax.

The tools he possesses should lend themselves to a two way game and they definatley fit the Jets speed style.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Yea he was tantalizing but he was playing a junior game still which makes some sense since he just finished his rookie CHL season.

What makes me feel great is I have zero doubt he will be very coachable and adapt. Honestly he might have been able to do it on the fly this season but another year in juniors was probably the right call. He has had to adjust to being the man and being the nightly target in Halifax.

The tools he possesses should lend themselves to a two way game and they definatley fit the Jets speed style.

Yup. :)
 

Bob E

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I really hope Ehlers makes the big team next year. Another year in Jr doesn't seem to make much sense to me.
 

Huffer

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I really hope Ehlers makes the big team next year. Another year in Jr doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

Agreed. Adding some size and how fast he can pick up his responsibilities in both ends of the ice to me will be the key.
 

Bob E

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Agreed, realistic expectations will be required.

For me, that's why a Kane-Burmi-Ehlers line, a 3rd line which is sheltered, makes a lot of sense.

Going up against other 3rd or 4th lines, that's a match up they would likely win, most often. Speed, skill and scoring. Burmi provides solid d play, and their possession numbers would likely be pretty good. Kane gets more pp time, Burmi more pk time, so their minutes creep into the 17+/gm, while Ehlers is around 14+ as he transitions to pro hockey.

Edit: there's no expectation Ehlers has to put up points in a scoring role on the 3rd line. Learn to play a more complete game, first. But the match ups mean you likely won't be slaughtered against the other teams best. And the threat to score will cause some problems for many teams.
 

Whileee

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I think Ehlers will need to improve a lot of aspects of his play before he's a top-end NHLer, and he will have struggles in his first couple of years in the NHL. However, I can't see how he will develop if he goes back to the QMJHL again next year. It won't be that much of a challenge for him. Having said that, the Jets sent Scheifele back for a couple of years in junior after drafting him, and they sent Petan back to the WHL for another year this year, so they have shown that they won't rush a prospect, even if they have high end skills.
 

robertocarlos

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Sep 19, 2014
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He's good but not Conner McDavid good. Except for his goal I did not like his game against the USHL All stars.
 
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