Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospects 2017-18

[Joe Hallenback]

Nogier is kind of doing what he always did. Playing solid defensive hockey and projecting to be a guy who gets his 15-20 points a year. Strong suspicion that is what we are going to see with the Moose this year is that guy. That same unspectacular low event player that he has always been. There is nothing wrong with that and it probably bodes well for him to gain NHL employment

Green needs to have good offensive year to have a shot at the NHL. Even then he will be a long shot because he will have to replicate that at some point as a pro.

That is the main difference between players like Nogier and Green. I am almost certain Nogier will have at some point a bit of an NHL career because he can and will play the game in a certain type of way. I am not sure Green can and is capable of doing that.

Green though has a chance at becoming the more prolific player though by far. But his chances at being a 1/2 point producer are pretty slim and his place in the NHL seems more likely to be a PP specialist number 4 guy but that will depend on his numbers in the minors.

 

[surixon]

Nogier is kind of doing what he always did. Playing solid defensive hockey and projecting to be a guy who gets his 15-20 points a year. Strong suspicion that is what we are going to see with the Moose this year is that guy. That same unspectacular low event player that he has always been. There is nothing wrong with that and it probably bodes well for him to gain NHL employment

Green needs to have good offensive year to have a shot at the NHL. Even then he will be a long shot because he will have to replicate that at some point as a pro.

That is the main difference between players like Nogier and Green. I am almost certain Nogier will have at some point a bit of an NHL career because he can and will play the game in a certain type of way. I am not sure Green can and is capable of doing that.

Green though has a chance at becoming the more prolific player though by far. But his chances at being a 1/2 point producer are pretty slim and his place in the NHL seems more likely to be a PP specialist number 4 guy but that will depend on his numbers in the minors.

It's this kind of thinking that gets teams into trouble by playing the supposed safe player (Chariot) over the more impacful but perceived flawed player (Postma)

Not saying Green will make it as he has a lot of development ahead of him with regards to his defensive play but he has very desirable tools that if honed properly will lead to him being a plus transition dmen in the new NHL.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

It's this kind of thinking that gets teams into trouble by playing the supposed safe player (Chariot) over the more impacful but perceived flawed player (Postma)

Not saying Green will make it as he has a lot of development ahead of him with regards to his defensive play but he has very desirable tools that if honed properly will lead to him being a plus transition dmen in the new NHL.

I am talking about prospect development and what you have to do for your organization. Not about player usage once the get to the NHL.

If you blind yourself to numbers especially once they get to the Pro game you are going to miss out on a lot of very good players.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Oh look! The number 5 prospect pool with Chase de leo being top 6 or so.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...op-10-nhl-prospect-pools-after-the-2017-draft

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Another tremendous article with Stan the Man as #4. Great Connor video of all his pro goals.

http://thehockeywriters.com/winnipeg-jets-top-4-prospects-2017/

 

[Daximus]

Another tremendous article with Stan the Man as #4. Great Connor video of all his pro goals.

http://thehockeywriters.com/winnipeg-jets-top-4-prospects-2017/

THW are easily the worst and most clueless hockey media site on the internet. Some of the **** they write is just gag worthy.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

Another tremendous article with Stan the Man as #4. Great Connor video of all his pro goals.

http://thehockeywriters.com/winnipeg-jets-top-4-prospects-2017/

They should've used my videos for the other three as well.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Another tremendous article with Stan the Man as #4. Great Connor video of all his pro goals.

http://thehockeywriters.com/winnipeg-jets-top-4-prospects-2017/

The list looked pretty easy until they got to 4, then looked like they just phoned it in. Yeah, ok. Stanley is our 4th best prospect. Ok, buddy.

 

[GJF]

The list looked pretty easy until they got to 4, then looked like they just phoned it in. Yeah, ok. Stanley is our 4th best prospect. Ok, buddy.

come on man, Stanley wasn't a sure thing. He also gave consideration to Brendan Lemieux

 

[CorgisPer60]

Heh. That topic about the 2015 draft on the Prospects board really made me appreciate how good that draft looks for the Jets. It's a safe bet that we could see 4 NHLers out of it. That's insanely good. Hell, even the depth forward picks (Foley, Appleton) stand a reasonable chance of becoming NHL regulars.

 

[garret9]

I am talking about prospect development and what you have to do for your organization. Not about player usage once the get to the NHL.

If you blind yourself to numbers especially once they get to the Pro game you are going to miss out on a lot of very good players.

Nogier did have elite numbers in the WHL... not in scoring but in relative shot differentials, zone exits, and such.

That said, we still have no idea how well these things translate or even signal competency as a prospect without more study and understanding... aside from the fact that being a better junior player overall is necessary to being able to make the next step.

Some company should track these type of things, start building a database, and look into this stuff.

 

[Whileee]

Nogier did have elite numbers in the WHL... not in scoring but in relative shot differentials, zone exits, and such.

That said, we still have no idea how well these things translate or even signal competency as a prospect without more study and understanding... aside from the fact that being a better junior player overall is necessary to being able to make the next step.

Some company should track these type of things, start building a database, and look into this stuff.

Hmmmm... something doesn't add up.

Your own PCS% has Nogier at 20%, well above a lot of other prospects. You note above that he was elite in facets that tend to be important for a D's contribution. But you rank him at #20 among Jets' prospects.

Is it just his junior scoring that drags him down in your estimation?

I actually like Nogier. I think he could blossom into a useful NHLer.

 

[garret9]

Hmmmm... something doesn't add up.

Your own PCS% has Nogier at 20%, well above a lot of other prospects. You note above that he was elite in facets that tend to be important for a D's contribution. But you rank him at #20 among Jets' prospects.

Is it just his junior scoring that drags him down in your estimation?

I actually like Nogier. I think he could blossom into a useful NHLer.

What doesn't add up?

I was talking about Nogier's shot differential numbers in junior perhaps signally some sort of value. He may never become better than a random call up but the fact that he did well in shot differentials in junior may be a signal of why he was at least able to move to the AHL while others do not.

I "don't like Nogier" because I haven't seen him do well in the non-scoring components of the game in the AHL (whether by numbers or eye test) to make me feel he's better than his low scoring history. I don't like how he handles the puck, how he transitions, and I don't like what I've seen in the numbers with him.

I view Nogier more like the 80% similar players that have missed than the 20% that have made it.

His PCS development curve has been no better, in fact worse, than DeLeo, Kosmachuk, and Lipon. All players that have gotten a taste of the NHL but will probably never be a regular roster member. I've talked about this before that most everyone gets a bump moving from junior to the AHL, simply because by being in the AHL you have that much better of a shot being a NHL player.

For example: I expect Stanley to jump into the double digits just like Nogier did in his rookie AHL season, even if he does not do very well either this or next season.

 

[Whileee]

What doesn't add up?

I was talking about Nogier's shot differential numbers in junior perhaps signally some sort of value. He may never become better than a random call up but the fact that he did well in shot differentials in junior may be a signal of why he was at least able to move to the AHL while others do not.

I "don't like Nogier" because I haven't seen him do well in the non-scoring components of the game in the AHL (whether by numbers or eye test) to make me feel he's better than his low scoring history. I don't like how he handles the puck, how he transitions, and I don't like what I've seen in the numbers with him.

I view Nogier more like the 80% similar players that have missed than the 20% that have made it.

His PCS development curve has been no better, in fact worse, than DeLeo, Kosmachuk, and Lipon. All players that have gotten a taste of the NHL but will probably never be a regular roster member. I've talked about this before that most everyone gets a bump moving from junior to the AHL, simply because by being in the AHL you have that much better of a shot being a NHL player.

For example: I expect Stanley to jump into the double digits just like Nogier did in his rookie AHL season, even if he does not do very well either this or next season.

Why would shot differentials not matter in junior when they matter so much in the pros?

 

[garret9]

Why would shot differentials not matter in junior when they matter so much in the pros?

Where did I say that? Where did I even allude to that?

What's more impressive for a young prospect: leading your team in scoring in junior or leading your team in scoring in the AHL?

For Nogier:
He did not produce offensively in junior, but he at least had value doing well in some areas.
He did not produce offensively in the AHL, and he has not excelled in the non-scoring areas of the game in the AHL like he did in junior.

That's not to say things are static, he is unable to change/improve, and do well in the AHL that he did in junior... but pro is another tier higher test.

My whole point to Joe's post was simply that better players will provide better results somewhere in the numbers.

 

[Whileee]

Where did I say that? Where did I even allude to that?

What's more impressive for a young prospect: leading your team in scoring in junior or leading your team in scoring in the AHL?

For Nogier:
He did not produce offensively in junior, but he at least had value doing well in some areas.
He did not produce offensively in the AHL, and he has not excelled in the non-scoring areas of the game in the AHL like he did in junior.

That's not to say things are static, he is unable to change/improve, and do well in the AHL that he did in junior... but pro is another tier higher test.

My whole point to Joe's post was simply that better players will provide better results somewhere in the numbers.

What relative value would you place for scoring and shot metrics for D in the NHL?

I'm not trying to be provocative, I'm genuinely interested in your view as to whether shot metrics and zone exits in junior have any value in projecting a prospect. It seems that at this point you are giving them little weight. Is that pending further testing of those parameters?

 

[garret9]

What relative value would you place for scoring and shot metrics for D in the NHL?

I'm not trying to be provocative, I'm genuinely interested in your view as to whether shot metrics and zone exits in junior have any value in projecting a prospect. It seems that at this point you are giving them little weight. Is that pending further testing of those parameters?

What weighting have I given them? What weighting have I not?

I just said that Nogier had good Corsi numbers cos I once heard that from a guy that used to work for the Blades. So, if Nogier is a success, which I doubt, it's not like Nogier is a player that had bad numbers everywhere.

 

[Whileee]

What weighting have I given them? What weighting have I not?

I just said that Nogier had good Corsi numbers cos I once heard that from a guy that used to work for the Blades. So, if Nogier is a success, which I doubt, it's not like Nogier is a player that had bad numbers everywhere.

He's ranked #20 by you, though you informed us that he had elite shot metrics and zone exit numbers in the W. I'm assuming therefore that you are weighting those junior stats less than you are weighting the scoring stats. That's all I am trying to understand.

 

[garret9]

He's ranked #20 by you, though you informed us that he had elite shot metrics and zone exit numbers in the W. I'm assuming therefore that you are weighting those junior stats less than you are weighting the scoring stats. That's all I am trying to understand.

I don't count for much something that I have no idea whether or not that matters.

I'm not assuming anything until I actually know what to assume.

What I know is what I know until I learn something new.

 

[Whileee]

I don't count for much something that I have no idea whether or not that matters.

I'm not assuming anything until I actually know what to assume.

What I know is what I know until I learn something new.

So, until you have evidence that shot metrics and zone exit/entry data in junior are predictive of pro success you don't give those data much weight. Is that a fair assumption?

 

[Evil Little]

Oh look! The number 5 prospect pool with Chase de leo being top 6 or so.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...op-10-nhl-prospect-pools-after-the-2017-draft

Interesting quote from that article:

For an organization to send an impact rookie like Patrik Laine to the NHL and still have one of the best prospect pools is an accomplishment. For a team to do it without going through a massive rebuild should be breaking news, but the Jets aren't a famous hockey team.

Funny how the bolded doesn't get mentioned more often, even among Jets fans.

 

[GJF]

I don't count for much something that I ihave no idea whether or not that matters.

I'm not assuming anything until I actually know what to assume.

What I know is what I know until I learn something new.

You really tend to be cryptic sometimes

 

[ps241]

Interesting quote from that article:



Funny how the bolded doesn't get mentioned more often, even among Jets fans.

If you look back it's almost like a full rebuild due to skill and a sprinkle of luck.


2011 Scheifele picked 7 adjusted to #1 in a redraft (Kucherov is close Gaudreau is #3)
2012 Trouba picked # 9 adjusted to #2 or #3 in a redraft (Lindholm being #1 but this is close now)
2014 Ehlers picked #9 adjusted to top 4 in the redraft (IMO)
2016 Laine picked #2 franchise changing talent.


That pretty much simulates full tank level rebuild results without bottoming out. In some ways we stole Edmontons first half of their full tank rebuild and only on their second half attempt did they get it right.

 

[puck stoppa]

I don't count for much something that I have no idea whether or not that matters.

I'm not assuming anything until I actually know what to assume.

What I know is what I know until I learn something new.

Way to dance around the question
Im with Whileee, it just sounds like you don't value it as much as scoring. That's the way I saw the convo going.

 

[Rheged]

I think the thing is we can see based on data currently available that scoring has high value. There isn't a big enough data set available yet (to my knowledge anyways) to really say one way or the other when it comes to shot based metrics.

So the presumption would be that having good shot differentials in junior would mean you're more likely to be a good NHLer but it can't really be verified at this time.