Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospects 2017-18

Status
Not open for further replies.

mcpw

WPG
Jan 13, 2015
10,024
2,072
the hendricks effect:
zvox9HO.png
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I don't know why some people think that a person can join a team and have a positive effect on it. Why is that random? What makes that argument even worse is the Oilers without Hendricks around burned this year

I am not saying he is the only reason the Jets were successful there were 5 things in my mind that made us the team we are and Veteran leadership is one of those reasons

Straw man: an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

No one argued against the possibility of having nice coworkers makes working nicer, which potentially may have some sort of unknown degree of positive impact.

What did happen:
Person A: Jets wouldn't have made it past Nashville without Hendricks.
Person B: That's ridiculous.
Person C: But we have Hendricks and we beat them.
Person D: Evidence provided by Person C in no way proves in any shape or form the hypothesis provided by Person A... but said in a more funny way.

I also don't see how Edmonton slumping in net, and moving out better players for slower alternatives, provides any real evidence that Hendricks -- a player who has not once carried a positive EV goal differential in his pro-hockey career -- is worth his placement on the team.
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,357
21,337
Not arguing but what do you base those 2 things on?

Early on the season there was the infamous picture of him and buff fishing. The other one is just comments that players and coaches have said all season. How much of an effect it has had is a matter of debate but I think its been fairly positive
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Intangibles are real, but no one, not even the players, coaches, or GMs -let alone here- knows the actual value they provide.*


For fun:

We know that not one pro-hockey team has carried a single season where they outscored their opponents with Hendricks on the ice at evens.

That has a negative effect. You can even estimate, based on performance and evidence, how many points in the standings that impact has been. These methods have been reviewed and tested. They are not precise, but are reasonably accurate.

Now, we also can guess that Hendricks has some sort of positive impact on the team because the players like him and <insert random shouts of intangibles here>. How much is that worth? 10 goals? unlikely but possibly. 1/100000000000th of a goal? Possibly, but unlikely.


I do find it interesting that a social scientist I really respect says that NHL managements do care about things that matter (leadership, perseverance, etc.) but really don't seem to know how to combine this qualitative inferences with quantitative information.


*Note: You can actually empirically look at things like the effect of leadership. This is done in businesses and social sciences. I can tell you it is *not* being done in hockey. This is what the person I respect wanted to push for but unfortunately life and family has prevented him from getting a lot done there. He was great at VanHAC though.
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,357
21,337
Straw man: an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

No one argued against the possibility of having nice coworkers makes working nicer, which potentially may have some sort of unknown degree of positive impact.

What did happen:
Person A: Jets wouldn't have made it past Nashville without Hendricks.
Person B: That's ridiculous.
Person C: But we have Hendricks and we beat them.
Person D: Evidence provided by Person C in no way proves in any shape or form the hypothesis provided by Person A... but said in a more funny way.

I also don't see how Edmonton slumping in net, and moving out better players for slower alternatives, provides any real evidence that Hendricks -- a player who has not once carried a positive EV goal differential in his pro-hockey career -- is worth his placement on the team.


Of course it would be seen as inconsequential to someone who buries himself in numbers without the benefit of real experience. How can you equate the effects of comradeship or leadership or anything that is based in emotion? You can take your equations and numbers but without adding those parts of it to it you don't have the full picture.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Of course it would be seen as inconsequential to someone who buries himself in numbers without the benefit of real experience. How can you equate the effects of comradeship or leadership or anything that is based in emotion? You can take your equations and numbers but without adding those parts of it to it you don't have the full picture.

Again, strong man. Where did I say intangibles are inconsequential?

If you wish to argue what my point of view on intangibles are, you should properly get a handle what I view them as.

You can get a start is with stuff like this.

If you want in short, and in general: No one has argued against intangibles having potential value. People have argued against the ways they are employed and evaluated.

If you want in short, and in specific: No one has argued Hendricks has potential positive value with his intangibles. People have argued that saying Jets would not win without him is asinine as a Hendricksless Jets win probability doesn't become 0.
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,357
21,337
Again, strong man. Where did I say intangibles are inconsequential?

If you wish to argue what my point of view on intangibles are, you should properly get a handle what I view them as.

You can get a start is with stuff like this.

If you want in short, and in general: No one has argued against intangibles having potential value. People have argued against the ways they are employed and evaluated.

If you want in short, and in specific: No one has argued Hendricks has potential positive value with his intangibles. People have argued that saying Jets would not win without him is asinine as a Hendricksless Jets win probability doesn't become 0.


I get what you are saying but what I am saying why can't we say Hendricks role on this team helped them get to this point?

I am going to assume he isn't here next year at least as a player and we will get a good idea of his impact or lack of impact next year.

I still believe his part in this teams maturation is undersold around here.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I get what you are saying but what I am saying why can't we say Hendricks role on this team helped them get to this point?

I am going to assume he isn't here next year at least as a player and we will get a good idea of his impact or lack of impact next year.

I still believe his part in this teams maturation is undersold around here.

We can't say Hendricks' intangibles helped more than it hurt.
We also can't say it didn't hurt more than it helped.
Neither one of these statements has more evidence than the other.

I can say his play arguably cost the Jets a game against Nashville.

I would say that the number of confounding variables makes the Jets performance next year irrelevant in assessing Hendricks impact.

I would say his part is unknown, to those around here, you, and those that would give reporter a quote on his role on the Jets.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Luc Labelle

boydkc

Registered User
Aug 2, 2015
633
244
Early on the season there was the infamous picture of him and buff fishing. The other one is just comments that players and coaches have said all season. How much of an effect it has had is a matter of debate but I think its been fairly positive
This was one of the most impactful decision that I have ever seen in the nhl. Talk about thinking outside of the box.
 
  • Like
Reactions: YoyiBear

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,767
Early on the season there was the infamous picture of him and buff fishing. The other one is just comments that players and coaches have said all season. How much of an effect it has had is a matter of debate but I think its been fairly positive

There have been comments about the example he sets in practice.

I don't know about Buff though. Buffs minutes are down a little and there are enough other scorers on the team that he doesn't appear to feel that he needs to score as much. Neither of those things have anything to do with Hendricks - but if he has played a part in Buff having his best season in Wpg, I'm not about to complain.
 

mcpw

WPG
Jan 13, 2015
10,024
2,072
okay, we definitely need a fishing themed GDT now

we also need to talk about prospects again or a mod will get mad...
*pulls out trivia sheet*
did you know that Michael Spacek scored 17 5v5 points in 70 games, while Jansen Harkins scored 12 5v5 points in 46 games?
Spacek also had 21 power play points.
Interesting statlines...
 

Jets4Life

Registered User
Dec 25, 2003
7,191
4,119
Westward Ho, Alberta
okay, we definitely need a fishing themed GDT now

we also need to talk about prospects again or a mod will get mad...
*pulls out trivia sheet*
did you know that Michael Spacek scored 17 5v5 points in 70 games, while Jansen Harkins scored 12 5v5 points in 46 games?
Spacek also had 21 power play points.
Interesting statlines...
I never understood why many were high on Jansen Harkins. He is a bottom 6 Moose player, and has not looked like anything special since turning pro.
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
48,709
69,032
Winnipeg
I never understood why many were high on Jansen Harkins. He is a bottom 6 Moose player, and has not looked like anything special since turning pro.

He was over a PPG in his draft year in the dub. He possessd a nice package of size, skill and smarts. There was nothing wrong with the pick at the time, his game just never really grew that much from there which happens at times with prospects. The biggest issue is his skating remains mediocre, if he can fix that he has a chance.
 

FonRiesen

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
2,926
6,332
Vancouver Island
Of course it would be seen as inconsequential to someone who buries himself in numbers without the benefit of real experience. How can you equate the effects of comradeship or leadership or anything that is based in emotion? You can take your equations and numbers but without adding those parts of it to it you don't have the full picture.
The biggest problem with this argument is that it's suggesting that Hendricks provides something that a hockey player that at least has a chance of outscoring the opponent while actually on the ice cannot. This is the red herring. The leadership/comradeship that Hendricks provides could be replaced by someone who is also a better player.

I haven't seen the numbers, but my eye test suggests that he is actually an improvement over Thorburn, who was lauded for similar things, so maybe we're going in the right direction.

Wheeler is the ultimate in "lead by example" and pushing the pace in practice. He is also a real net positive while on the ice. Schief is similar, but in a geekier way. Buff is an example of someone who keeps the room loose and more relaxed, and he is also a real net positive while on the ice. Stastny is an example of a "one on one" leader who talks to individual players quietly, calmly and boosts confidence, and he is also a net positive while on the ice. We have leaders that play good hockey.

The only thing that I've heard Maurice say that Hendricks MIGHT provide better than the others is that "he says the right things on the bench." So let's make him a coach if he's so valuable. We should have played a younger player with potential instead of Hendricks during injury, who may develop veteran experience, leadership skills, and at least have a slight chance at being a real net positive on the ice. And a team will never all be leaders, but every player on the ice could contribute positively. Dano might never be a leader, but he could be a follower with a net positive effect while on the ice. Same with Roslovic, Petan, & Appleton. (This is how I'm tying my post to this particular thread) :)
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,187
28,767

Holden Caulfield

Eternal Skeptic
Feb 15, 2006
22,807
5,397
Winnipeg
Thanks. Didn't we sign Suess already or was that just an ATO.

Both Suess and Ustaski signed ATO's. I couldn't remember if Suess signed an ELC so I listed him as well. Apparently they did. Where I was looking had it formatted oddly so I saw the 18-19 expiry and figured that was the ATO they were refferring to. In fact it was a Tanev situation where Suess is an RFA this off-season. I'll edit.
 

Hammer Slammer

Registered User
Mar 26, 2010
12,716
1,210
Winnipeg
Stallard is the only maybe there. I asked someone in the org about Glover and they said he's another Serville so I figured that was pretty damning. Maybe they sign with the Moose if they're lucky.
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
48,709
69,032
Winnipeg
Stallard is the only maybe there. I asked someone in the org about Glover and they said he's another Serville so I figured that was pretty damning. Maybe they sign with the Moose if they're lucky.

Any info on if the sign Skyler this season? He got some game in in the class cup playoffs
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->