Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread (Part XVIII)

[Holden Caulfield]

Add me to the list of people who felt a long while back that Poolman has potential, even when others laughed it off. I happen to thing the same about Karlstrom - there is something very intriguing about his game too.

This post nicely sums up why judging players based on summer development camps is a really poor way to assess talent. Sure maybe Poolman (who you have to remember was 2 years older than everyone else at first dev camp) stood out and has developed to be a potential prospect. Then you have all the Karlstrom's who bust after that nice dev camp.

Drills are really really bad ways to judge players. Scrimmages with no systems are really really bad way to judge players. Off-season form is a really really bad way to judge players. It's just not a useful tool for judging players. It's a useful tool for players to get NHL coaching and help their game though which is why Jets do it, not for fans to judge potential of players.

I can pick names out of hat for a favourite darkhorse prospect and maybe that prospect becomes a player for the Jets. Doesn't change the fact that picking the name out of the hat was a bad strategy for me to basis my "pick" of who would be good.

 

[csk]

This post nicely sums up why judging players based on summer development camps is a really poor way to assess talent. Sure maybe Poolman (who you have to remember was 2 years older than everyone else at first dev camp) stood out and has developed to be a potential prospect. Then you have all the Karlstrom's who bust after that nice dev camp.

Drills are really really bad ways to judge players. Scrimmages with no systems are really really bad way to judge players. Off-season form is a really really bad way to judge players. It's just not a useful tool for judging players. It's a useful tool for players to get NHL coaching and help their game though which is why Jets do it, not for fans to judge potential of players.

I can pick names out of hat for a favourite darkhorse prospect and maybe that prospect becomes a player for the Jets. Doesn't change the fact that picking the name out of the hat was a bad strategy for me to basis my "pick" of who would be good.

Some people watch more than just dev camp

 

[Mud Turtle]

Really disliked the following picks when we made them: Glover, Harkins, Nogier and Morrissey.
Morrissey I've obviously warmed up to a bit but still not 100% sold that he should have gone that high.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Regarding Poolman, when do we have to have him signed by?

At the end of next season he has a choice to make.

If after his junior year Tucker Poolman declares that he will turn pro, he becomes UFA 30 days after that. Since it will be 4 years since his draft year he has that option. So he could be UFA by July 1, 2017.

If Poolman decides to stay in school for his senior year, the Jets will retain his rights until August 15th, 2018.

 

[wpgallday1960]

His transition to college has been a lot rockier than people (like me for example) expected. He has started to have his game come around but it's still a long way off. 2 more years in college to even earn a contract. He is ahead of say a Brendan Serville or Aaron Harstad at the same age by a fair margin, but that's not much of a measure. He is still a project player (much as he was on draft day).

He hits hard, good skater, can make a nice pass, but he hasn't really found consistency or maybe doesn't have the hockey IQ I thought he did. We'll see he still has the skills to be a player and is still quite young (for example a Tucker Poolman at the same age wasn't even in college yet).

Good to know. Noticed he got 2 goals in his last game and is now a +8 for the season so maybe he's making progress.

 

[10Ducky10]

Really disliked the following picks when we made them: Glover, Harkins, Nogier and Morrissey.
Morrissey I've obviously warmed up to a bit but still not 100% sold that he should have gone that high.

Which D man should they have taken instead of Morrissey if you don't mind me asking?

 

[JC Numminen]

Which D man should they have taken instead of Morrissey if you don't mind me asking?

An argument could be made for Pulock.

(Note that I'm not suggesting they should of taken him over Jmo, just was another solid Defence option)

 

[bustamente]

Chances that either Poolman or Connor sign after the collegiate season is done, and would it be in time to play a game or two with the Jets.

 

[JetsHomer]

Which D man should they have taken instead of Morrissey if you don't mind me asking?

I wanted Zadorov or Wennberg, but I think the jury is still out on Morrissey. He has very interesting tools.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Which D man should they have taken instead of Morrissey if you don't mind me asking?

The truth is I was thoroughly disappointed that we didn't get Domi and didn't care as much at that point. That was the drop off point for me but I felt the best of the next group was Wennberg at that point.

 

[lablite47]

Which D man should they have taken instead of Morrissey if you don't mind me asking?

I think that even looking down the list to Shae Theodore and even to the second round, to Madison Bowey, both of these are looking to me as having more upside than Morrissey right now, let alone Pulock..

 

[Duke749]

Not even three full years since that draft. This year guys are just starting to emerge. We can't come to a conclusion yet.

 

[Whileee]

The suspense is killing me.

Parayko.

 

[Mud Turtle]

This post nicely sums up why judging players based on summer development camps is a really poor way to assess talent. Sure maybe Poolman (who you have to remember was 2 years older than everyone else at first dev camp) stood out and has developed to be a potential prospect. Then you have all the Karlstrom's who bust after that nice dev camp.

Drills are really really bad ways to judge players. Scrimmages with no systems are really really bad way to judge players. Off-season form is a really really bad way to judge players. It's just not a useful tool for judging players. It's a useful tool for players to get NHL coaching and help their game though which is why Jets do it, not for fans to judge potential of players.

I can pick names out of hat for a favourite darkhorse prospect and maybe that prospect becomes a player for the Jets. Doesn't change the fact that picking the name out of the hat was a bad strategy for me to basis my "pick" of who would be good.

Well I would have signed Austin Czarnik right out of development camp 3 years ago. That kid had amazing skill but was a touch smaller than Petan. I thought he was the best player at camp that year. Boston took a shot with him a couple years later and they are probably pretty happy as he's having a very good rookie year in the AHL. Nice to see him succeed. It will be very interesting to see if he can make the leap eventually.

 

[garret9]

Just noticed Harkins is on a 7 game point streak, FYI.

 

[csk]

Really disliked the following picks when we made them: Glover, Harkins, Nogier and Morrissey.
Morrissey I've obviously warmed up to a bit but still not 100% sold that he should have gone that high.

What didn't you like about Harkins.. wasn't he projected to go in the 1st round?

Edit: or did you just prefer one of the many good Dmen still on the board?

 

[Whileee]

What didn't you like about Harkins.. wasn't he projected to go in the 1st round?

Edit: or did you just prefer one of the many good Dmen still on the board?

Harkins doesn't seem to have much "pop" to his game. He'll need to get quicker in all facets to make the NHL.

 

[Daximus]

What didn't you like about Harkins.. wasn't he projected to go in the 1st round?

Edit: or did you just prefer one of the many good Dmen still on the board?

I was bummed we grabbed Harkins. I was bummed about Roslovic a bit too. I've warmed up to Roslo but I'm still not a big fan of the Harkins pick. I was hoping we'd take Kylington there. But c'est la vie.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think that even looking down the list to Shae Theodore and even to the second round, to Madison Bowey, both of these are looking to me as having more upside than Morrissey right now, let alone Pulock..

Why do you think Pulock, Bowey and Theodore have more upside?

 

[HannuJ]

Really disliked the following picks when we made them: Glover, Harkins, Nogier and Morrissey.
Morrissey I've obviously warmed up to a bit but still not 100% sold that he should have gone that high.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

just wondering who should have gone at 13? Mantha?
His AHL #s are pretty good (almost a point a game) but you're probably looking at a top 2, maybe 3 D-man in Morrissey. Mantha's ceiling is...second line?
looking back at that draft and that's actually a pretty nice top 13 picks. Lots of A, A- and B+ players there. compare it to 2012's draft. ugg, that top 10's pretty ungreat. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html. you have a do-over and you're looking at a top 3 of Forsberg, Trouba and...Reilly?

 

[HannuJ]

Harkins doesn't seem to have much "pop" to his game. He'll need to get quicker in all facets to make the NHL.

Let's take a step back and be realistic.
what % of a club's draft picks should either:
-make the NHL for 1-2 seasons (role player)
-make the NHL as bottom 6 players
-make the NHL as top 6 players

I'd argue that above average success equals 2 players per year fitting 2 out of the 3 above categories.

so a team screws up a 2nd rnd pick every now and then. eh.

2011 - Scheif and Lowry. 2/3. so, that's pretty good.
2012 - Trouba, Hellebuyck and, now, Kosmachuk. That's excellent, considering that it's likely that Trouba and Helle will be studs.
2013 - holy smokes. Petan, Morrissey, Lipon all made it, albeit briefly for all. Copp played bottom 6 for the year. Comrie is on the trajectory to make the NHL in the next 2 years. Realistically, you will have Petan, Morrissey, Copp and Comrie as regulars. that's bonkers.
2014 - for the success 2013 brought, 2014 will likely be an unsuccessful year. Ehlers is a stud. and then....maybe De Leo. maybe Kraskovsky. but there's a good chance Ehlers is the only NHL player in that class. a below-average year.
2015 - too early to tell, natch, but Connor, Roslovic, Spacek have legit chances to make the NHL in one role or another. Harkins is a dark horse and i wouldn't be shocked if he was Lowry-esque guy who needs some AHL seasoning and gets a chance to work on his game.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

So I'm very curious as I follow the Jets closely... What's the plan going forward in goal? Hellebuyck has been a complete stud, and hopefully Pavelec is gone after the season. But what about Comrie? He's looked like he's been solid in net and shaping up to be an NHL goaltender down the line. What would be the plan with Hellebuyck and Comrie?

 

[CorgisPer60]

So I'm very curious as I follow the Jets closely... What's the plan going forward in goal? Hellebuyck has been a complete stud, and hopefully Pavelec is gone after the season. But what about Comrie? He's looked like he's been solid in net and shaping up to be an NHL goaltender down the line. What would be the plan with Hellebuyck and Comrie?

Hellebuyck has had loads more pro experience than Comrie right now, and while there's no set in stone plan as of yet, common perception amongst the fanbase reads it as Hutchinson gets traded for a pick at the draft and we roll with Pavelec and Helle for the next year until Pavelec's contract is out. Then _I hope_ that Pavelec is loaded into the nearest cannon and shot back to the Czech Republic. Comrie can have the AHL reins next year, where he'll likely share crease duties with Phillips if he turns pro.

 

[Gm0ney]

I always thought Tucker Poolman was a good pick just based on his name alone...

I do recall either an article or maybe a post on here where someone who was familiar with him saying to never count him out - he's been underestimated at every level and turned into a fine player in each. A good sign of character and perseverance at least.

 

[ps241]

The truth is I was thoroughly disappointed that we didn't get Domi and didn't care as much at that point. That was the drop off point for me but I felt the best of the next group was Wennberg at that point.

You and allot of other people. I will never forget the Jets draft party at the Shark Club when Domi was picked one before us there was a full on groan fest in the bar and you could clearly tell Max was the golden boy choice. Then drum roll and Morrissey gets picked and there was confusion (who....what......), then disappointment, literally draft list papers thrown in the air in frustration and then half the bar cleared out pissed off.

My hopes that year was the Ristolainen would fall to us (in a Connor like shocker) and if not I liked Wennberg in our tier. I am happy with Josh and am willing to let it play out. I think he is the modern NHL puck mover and the choice will stand the test of time as far as draft value goes.