Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread (Part X)

[pucka lucka]

When did the NCAA become better than the CHL? Really.

Umm you serious? NCAA is grown assed men.

 

[BigZ65]

His SV% was his.

Sure was. You don't think playing in a league with teams that are structured in a much more defensively minded fashion would affect save percentage? Hellebucyk would have put up a .950 behind the Tri-City Americans just as he did behind the UMass-Lowell Riverhawks?

Just glancing through the league stats, 6-7-8 goal games in Hockey East are rare, while those types of games are pretty normal in the WHL.

I'm excited about both guys, but I can't really rank or sort them based on their NCAA/Junior careers. Both were/are among the best at their position in their respective leagues, but those leagues are very different, and I'd venture that playing goalie in the WHL is somewhat more difficult.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Umm you serious? NCAA is grown assed men.

I didn't pay any attention after the Jets 1.0 left Winnipeg. Really. None at all.

I remember 20-25 years ago the NCAA was not an awful lot better than Junior B. In fact I knew a couple of Junior B players who got full scholarships and successfully completed their degrees. They were not Junior B stars either. The best NCAA players were above that but the range was pretty wide. A few really good players at the top but the overall competition level was not that great. The fact that they are typically 2 years older does not make them better. If it is the same players 2 years older it does but if it is a lot of players who could not make it in the CHL then being older is not very significant.

A few things changed while I wasn't watching. Players today are bigger, faster, stronger, fitter than they were. There are more European players and especially more American players. A lot more NCAA players are succeeding in the NHL so something has happened there. IIRC they weren't even drafted at one point. I don't remember when that changed. They would leave school anytime after junior age as free agents. Maybe I'm misremembering that part. I'm not sure. The thing is that NCAA players were considered handicapped by having played against inferior opponents.

All that has apparently changed. What happened? Was it the growth of the sport in the US? American born players seem more inclined to go the NCAA route instead of junior and the balance between US and Canadian born players being drafted appears to be getting pretty close in both quantity and quality. Even so I am surprised at the statement that the NCAA is superior to the CHL. That is a huge change and I think entirely unforeseen 20 years ago.

 

[truck]

The other Kossy picked up an apple today. Jan remains mad underrated.

 

[garret9]

NCAA is higher level competition, but that's because the guys are older.
The ceiling of the top players in CHL is higher.

 

[ps241]

Sure was. You don't think playing in a league with teams that are structured in a much more defensively minded fashion would affect save percentage? Hellebucyk would have put up a .950 behind the Tri-City Americans just as he did behind the UMass-Lowell Riverhawks?

Just glancing through the league stats, 6-7-8 goal games in Hockey East are rare, while those types of games are pretty normal in the WHL.

I'm excited about both guys, but I can't really rank or sort them based on their NCAA/Junior careers. Both were/are among the best at their position in their respective leagues, but those leagues are very different, and I'd venture that playing goalie in the WHL is somewhat more difficult.

Garret can do a better job explaining and referencing this but from what I have read systems can suppress shots and lead to lower GAA but it appears save % does not fluctuate much by goalies playing in better or worse defensive systems.


Garret......truck.......don't leave a brother hanging

 

[Hobby Bull]

I think it would be pretty interesting to pit top NCAA and CHL teams against each other.

I'd definitely want to watch.

 

[truck]

Garret can do a better job explaining and referencing this but from what I have read systems can suppress shots and lead to lower GAA but it appears save % does not fluctuate much by goalies playing in better or worse defensive systems.


Garret......truck.......don't leave a brother hanging

I suspect this is less true when looking at other leagues, but even with that I don’t think it is all about systems.

 

[Sweech]

De Leo scored again.

It seems like he's had a point in every game since he's been back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Garret can do a better job explaining and referencing this but from what I have read systems can suppress shots and lead to lower GAA but it appears save % does not fluctuate much by goalies playing in better or worse defensive systems.


Garret......truck.......don't leave a brother hanging

I don't remember the numbers exactly but in the 80's and 90's NHL league avg SV% was more like .885. The whole league was much more offensive then. We won't see a rookie score 76 goals or anybody score 92 goals again in the near future. So at some point systems must have an effect. A goalie going from one team to another in the same league at the same time should have close to the same sv% even if the teams vary widely in defensive ability.

 

[Sweech]

Also forgot to mention.

Jack Glover played an exhibition game with U of Minnesota and he scored the opening goal as his team won 5-0 against NAIT. He was also named the second star of the game.

His season starts on the 10th against Minnesota Duluth.

Glover is going to be fun to follow. I really liked him heading into the draft and I think he's a great prospect plus he's playing on what could be one of the best teams in the NCAA.

 

[garret9]

I don't remember the numbers exactly but in the 80's and 90's NHL league avg SV% was more like .885. The whole league was much more offensive then. We won't see a rookie score 76 goals or anybody score 92 goals again in the near future. So at some point systems must have an effect. A goalie going from one team to another in the same league at the same time should have close to the same sv% even if the teams vary widely in defensive ability.

That has more to do with goaltending than anything else.
Bigger.
Bigger gear.
Butterfly style.
Playing the angles.
Etc.

 

[garret9]

I suspect this is less true when looking at other leagues, but even with that I don’t think it is all about systems.

Yup.

effects in the NHL are he way they are due to the way the NHL is...
Other leagues are not the same necessarily .

 

[Aavco Cup]

Also forgot to mention.

Jack Glover played an exhibition game with U of Minnesota and he scored the opening goal as his team won 5-0 against NAIT. He was also named the second star of the game.

His season starts on the 10th against Minnesota Duluth.

Glover is going to be fun to follow. I really liked him heading into the draft and I think he's a great prospect plus he's playing on what could be one of the best teams in the NCAA.

Minnesota is preseason #1
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/icehockey-men/d1

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

NCAA is higher level competition, but that's because the guys are older.
The ceiling of the top players in CHL is higher.

OK but how does merely being older make for higher level competition? If the players with the higher ceiling play in the CHL and if some (many, most?) of the best NCAA players turn pro after 1, 2, 3 years in the NCAA (roughly the same age to enter the NHL) then NCAA players are developing by playing against weaker competition. That is not the best way to develop. Those 21 & 22 year old NCAA players are largely of a lower calibre who are not going to play pro.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

OK but how does merely being older make for higher level competition? If the players with the higher ceiling play in the CHL and if some (many, most?) of the best NCAA players turn pro after 1, 2, 3 years in the NCAA (roughly the same age to enter the NHL) then NCAA players are developing by playing against weaker competition. That is not the best way to develop. Those 21 & 22 year old NCAA players are largely of a lower calibre who are not going to play pro.

1 maybe 2 players per CHL team are top end draft calibre. The large portions of the 2nd half of rosters is filled out with 16-17 years old who spend a year or two getting dominated then are out of league.

The difference is that the NCAA doesn't have those lower end guys. They have much deeper rosters. Their lower end guys are 21/22 year olds with long junior A career already done. Not too mention that top end advantage is being eliminated each and every year as many players start to go for NCAA rather than Major Junior.

Really the middle of rosters are guys who are basically split both ways (either going NCAA or CHL) pretty evenly but in the NCAA situation they are 19-24 rather than 16-19.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That has more to do with goaltending than anything else.
Bigger.
Bigger gear.
Butterfly style.
Playing the angles.
Etc.

I had wondered about that. The goalies are bigger but much more obviously the gear has grown in size and I think they have also become much lighter. All that leather and padding could be heavy so there was a trade-off in making them bigger. Old time goalies certainly played the angles and there are pros and cons to the butterfly style.

That said scoring was lower in the 50's, 60's than it was in the 80's, 90's. The 70's I'm not sure of, probably a transition time. I don't have any idea of what a typical sv% might have been in the 50's. Was the scoring difference because of goaltending difference or the offensive vs defensive system balance or some other factor? Perhaps the change was because of league expansion.

 

[Sweech]

Minnesota is preseason #1
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/icehockey-men/d1

Yeah, I saw that I just don't put any stock in those rankings.

 

[Romang67]

I know we're not gonna pick up McEichel barring us winning the lottery or us losing pretty much our top 5 players to injuries, but where in this upcoming draft would you guys say is the cutoff between potential franchise player and very good player?

 

[Bob E]

Eichel with 5 assists in his first game.

McDavid with 12 pts (5g,7a) in 4 games.

Strome with 13 pts (12a) in 4 games.

This year has started off with a bang for those prospects.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

1 maybe 2 players per CHL team are top end draft calibre. The large portions of the 2nd half of rosters is filled out with 16-17 years old who spend a year or two getting dominated then are out of league.

The difference is that the NCAA doesn't have those lower end guys. They have much deeper rosters. Their lower end guys are 21/22 year olds with long junior A career already done. Not too mention that top end advantage is being eliminated each and every year as many players start to go for NCAA rather than Major Junior.

Really the middle of rosters are guys who are basically split both ways (either going NCAA or CHL) pretty evenly but in the NCAA situation they are 19-24 rather than 16-19.

OK, I see your point about the lower half of the CHL rosters. I'm not sure I agree with your 1st sentence though. Without checking in detail it seems to me that most CHL teams have 2-3 players already drafted in the early rounds and 2-3 eligible for the coming draft who are fairly highly rated. I may be a little optimistic here from looking at the better teams (Portland, Barrie, Halifax) but even so I think you are underrating them. Still I think your point about the bottom half of their rosters carries a lot of weight.

Ok, just for a little perspective I checked out a few drafts. I've noticed that a lot of players from the USHL and the USNTDP seem to go on to the NCAA for at least a year or two before turning pro (like Trouba for example) so I've included players drafted from there even though they don't all go that route. This is just quick and dirty. Looking at the 1st round only:
'09 - 6 players drafted starting with #16
'12 - 6 players drafted starting with #9 (Trouba)
'13 - 1 player drafted #25
'14 - 4 players drafted starting with #15

In those 4 years (BTW I chose '09 just because I happened to have it on screen) there were a total of 17 NCAA/USHL/USNTDP players taken out of 120 total. The highest being Trouba at #9. Then there were 1 each at 14, 15 and 2 at 16 the rest later. I don't know how many top level teams are in the NCAA. I assume it is significantly fewer than the CHL's 60 teams. If there are 20 strong hockey programs and similar talent pools you would expect them to produce 1/3 the number. The other 103 draftees included 24 from Europe 79 from the CHL. With none in the top 5, only 1 top 10 and 3 top 15 plus outnumbered 79 to 17 I don't see any support there for an argument that the NCAA is superior to the CHL. I can see where it is much closer than it used to be but look at all the top offensive players Hellebuyck was not facing. Yakupov, Galchenyuk, MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan, Horvat, Reinhart, Bennet, Draisaitl, Dal Colle and a lot more.

 

[pucka lucka]

OK, I see your point about the lower half of the CHL rosters. I'm not sure I agree with your 1st sentence though. Without checking in detail it seems to me that most CHL teams have 2-3 players already drafted in the early rounds and 2-3 eligible for the coming draft who are fairly highly rated. I may be a little optimistic here from looking at the better teams (Portland, Barrie, Halifax) but even so I think you are underrating them. Still I think your point about the bottom half of their rosters carries a lot of weight.

Ok, just for a little perspective I checked out a few drafts. I've noticed that a lot of players from the USHL and the USNTDP seem to go on to the NCAA for at least a year or two before turning pro (like Trouba for example) so I've included players drafted from there even though they don't all go that route. This is just quick and dirty. Looking at the 1st round only:
'09 - 6 players drafted starting with #16
'12 - 6 players drafted starting with #9 (Trouba)
'13 - 1 player drafted #25
'14 - 4 players drafted starting with #15

In those 4 years (BTW I chose '09 just because I happened to have it on screen) there were a total of 17 NCAA/USHL/USNTDP players taken out of 120 total. The highest being Trouba at #9. Then there were 1 each at 14, 15 and 2 at 16 the rest later. I don't know how many top level teams are in the NCAA. I assume it is significantly fewer than the CHL's 60 teams. If there are 20 strong hockey programs and similar talent pools you would expect them to produce 1/3 the number. The other 103 draftees included 24 from Europe 79 from the CHL. With none in the top 5, only 1 top 10 and 3 top 15 plus outnumbered 79 to 17 I don't see any support there for an argument that the NCAA is superior to the CHL. I can see where it is much closer than it used to be but look at all the top offensive players Hellebuyck was not facing. Yakupov, Galchenyuk, MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan, Horvat, Reinhart, Bennet, Draisaitl, Dal Colle and a lot more.

You are severely underestimating the effect of age. Look at how many 19+ players dominate the CHL. Guys that might never play pro dominate the CHL as overagers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You are severely underestimating the effect of age. Look at how many 19+ players dominate the CHL. Guys that might never play pro dominate the CHL as overagers.

Really? A lot of top picks, like Ehlers & Petan dominate as 19 & 20 year olds certainly and some of them never make it in the NHL but I think most of those who 'dominate' in the CHL succeed in the NHL to one degree or another. Instead of 16-20 the NCAA players are 18-23. I get that and I don't think I am discounting the value of that extra maturity but if the player just doesn't have the same talent an extra couple of years doesn't matter. My draft class was 47 years ago. I promise you I have a solid appreciation for the value of experience.

 

[pucka lucka]

Really? A lot of top picks, like Ehlers & Petan dominate as 19 & 20 year olds certainly and some of them never make it in the NHL but I think most of those who 'dominate' in the CHL succeed in the NHL to one degree or another. Instead of 16-20 the NCAA players are 18-23. I get that and I don't think I am discounting the value of that extra maturity but if the player just doesn't have the same talent an extra couple of years doesn't matter. My draft class was 47 years ago. I promise you I have a solid appreciation for the value of experience.

Dude, I am talking about players that aren't top prospects. Top prospects aren't overagers. 20 years olds that are prospects are in the NHL or AHL.

 

[Atoyot]

Kraskovsky had 4 assists last game, has 1G 11A in 12GP now.