Speculation: Will Eric Staal be a Hurricane next season?

[DaveG]

I wish I knew what ********** said.

I've said it before but I'm kind of blown away at what some are willing to pay for Staal to return. If he'd take between $4 and $5 million, I'd swallow hard and sign him. But it's best for the culture if he just goes to another team IMO. Give the team to the kids and sign a quality UFA for $6 or $7 million.

Watch My Cousin Vinny.


Anyway I think he'd be worth it at about 6-6.5 per/3-4 years to bring him back/keep him here.

 

[Joe McGrath]

In no way am I saying they are the same player. They are only separated by three years and Kopitar's contract takes him until he's 36. But both are still 1Cs and whoever wants one is going to pay out the ass to get one. Especially on the open market.

You're right. You know more than Bob McKenzie does.

 

[NotOpie]

For me, it's not just money, it's term. Personally, I don't want to be paying Eric that much money when he's in his mid 30s (he'll be 32 to start next season).

I think he fancies that he'll get Spezza type money and term (4 years @$30 million). I used to think that's what he'd get here. Not so much anymore.

Right now I'm of the mind that I'd sign him to a 3 year $19 million deal with a modified NMC for the 1st two years or I might hold my nose and sign him to a 4 year $25 million deal with similar modified NMC terms. That way he makes a shade more than little brother to stroke his ego and the Canes retain a #1 center, still the most expensive position to find and replace in both pure dollar terms and ability to replace terms.

I think Ronnie sees that the team remains a better one with Eric, in the short term, and still could use Staal for at least 2 more years, but doesn't want to overpay for that privilege. Think it is as simple as that.

 

[Novacane]

You're right. You know more than Bob McKenzie does.

Obviously that's what I'm saying and Bob McKenzie is right 100% of the time.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

You're right. You know more than Bob McKenzie does.

I've done a simple statistical analysis of Bob McKenzie's tweets over the past 5 seasons earlier this season, and (6.8±0.3)% of his "insights", "insider informations", "speculations", etc. have turned out to be true.

 

[bleedgreen]

We have a young team that has taken the reins a bit. It's their team, not his. Time to move on and change the identity of the team. If Jordan doesn't like it, too bad. He's got plenty of money and the move only further allows him to play a larger role. Move Lindy to 3C and ride this season out.


I think Estaal has had little to do with our recent success. I'm not convinced we're notably worse without him. Turn the page.

If he's cheaper than suspected than it's hard not to look at, but he'd be a fool to take less.

 

[Chan790]

Canes retain a #1 center, still the most expensive position to find and replace in both pure dollar terms and ability to replace terms.

a.) I'm pretty sure that's legit 1D at this point in time...even if we're blessed with potentially more than 1 or 2.

b.) I'm exceedingly skeptical that Eric Staal is a 1C (if he is, it's just barely) at this point in his career, let alone 2-3 years from now. He's no longer an "all-situations player", he's been trending down on offense for years and is currently 80th in the league in scoring.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I've done a simple statistical analysis of Bob McKenzie's tweets over the past 5 seasons earlier this season, and (6.8±0.3)% of his "insights", "insider informations", "speculations", etc. have turned out to be true.

How did you possibly quantify something as "true" or not?

For example, Bob McKenzie reported that the 'Canes were offered a 2nd + Teubert for Ray Whitney at the 2010 trade deadline, which Whitney vetoed with his NTC. How did you rate this information, it seems difficult to tell whether this was true or not: other sources reported that the prospect was Voynov; still others reported that Whitney did accept the deal, but the Kings backed out after Whitney refused to negotiate until the free agency, etc.

How would you have registered the above? What was your methodology? What is an example of something that you deemed "true" and something that was "false"?

As for Eric: trade him at the deadline, put in a bid in FA, if he comes back, great, if not, well they tried. I actually think he'll come back, the signs that they're righting the ship are numerous this year (everyone buying into the system, advanced stats, the play of the young guys).

 

[Finnish Jerk Train]

This will be the toughest decision of RF's young GM career, and it will come down to information that we're not privy to at this point in time. I think he has the stones to not give him a sweetheart contract and probably knows better than to match whatever some desperate GM would give him on the open market. The (multi)million-dollar question is how that affects the mood of the negotiations and how much Eric wants to concede in order to keep his comfortable life intact. None of us really knows that for sure, but my guess is Eric really doesn't want to leave, especially now that we're starting to have a reason to believe in this team.

Personally, I'd give him $6-7mm per for no more than 3. I think even that is an overpayment, but there's no way we can talk him into taking less money than Jordan when he's producing more points. As for term, as others have said, the writing is on the wall with regard to the future of this team. He can still be useful, but this is quickly becoming the kids' team. Signing him into his late 30s would be contrary to the rebuild as well as stupid. Ronnie hasn't given me any reason to believe he'd do something like that.

 

[Unsustainable]

I think we need to trade picks for players we once wanted to get a winger for Eric.

 

[Incubajerks]

Bonafide 1C in the next free agency?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If Eric wants 6-7M for 4 years, RF has to let him walk IMO. Yeah, I know he's probably the best forward on the team right now and short term, they won't be able to replace him with a UFA, but personally, I think Eric will continue to decline and if we sign him to 4 years (maybe even 3), we'll regret it.

Going to be a tough call for RF. You can't go all "Edmonton" and only have a bunch of young guys, but Francis seems to have a longer leash in following a long term plan. It will likely hurt in the short term (next year) though as there is no way to replace him via UFA. If he'll do what Wesley did late in his career, that would be ideal (sign 1-2 year deals). I don't see that happening though.

 

[NotOpie]

If Eric wants 6-7M for 4 years, RF has to let him walk IMO. Yeah, I know he's probably the best forward on the team right now and short term, they won't be able to replace him with a UFA, but personally, I think Eric will continue to decline and if we sign him to 4 years (maybe even 3), we'll regret it.

Going to be a tough call for RF. You can't go all "Edmonton" and only have a bunch of young guys, but Francis seems to have a longer leash in following a long term plan. It will likely hurt in the short term (next year) though as there is no way to replace him via UFA. If he'll do what Wesley did late in his career, that would be ideal (sign 1-2 year deals). I don't see that happening though.

The difference between $6 million and $6.5 million isn't that great in the grand scheme of things. 4 years vs. 3 years isn't either (although I'd prefer the lower end of both scales). I wouldn't got to 5 years and I wouldn't go to $7 million.

But take a look at next year's free agent market. It's okay, but not earth shattering. If you take Stamkos and Staal out of that picture, it looks downright pedestrian, with many of the guys at or above Staal's age. The only other guy who comes close to qualifying would be David Backes, and he plays 3C in St. Louis this year. And we all know Ronnie's not going after Stamkos.

To me, that leaves resigning Staal as a bridge to one of the youngsters or some future asset we don't currently have.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I get that Opie and acknowledge that there isn't a good short term solution, without a trade. To me, you don't make a long term problem to solve a short term issue. Signing Staal for 4+ years is one that I think the team would regret (again, depends on the money).

2 Years, yes, I'd be fine with that.
3 Years, I'm on the fence
4+ Years, no way I'd touch that.

Maybe I'm wrong and Eric's decline over the past few years will cease as that's completely possible, but I'm not betting on a guy that will be 36 years old when a 4 years old in the last year of his deal.

 

[Chan790]

The difference between $6 million and $6.5 million isn't that great in the grand scheme of things. 4 years vs. 3 years isn't either (although I'd prefer the lower end of both scales). I wouldn't got to 5 years and I wouldn't go to $7 million.

...

To me, that leaves resigning Staal as a bridge to one of the youngsters or some future asset we don't currently have.

I get that Opie and acknowledge that there isn't a good short term solution, without a trade. To me, you don't make a long term problem to solve a short term issue. Signing Staal for 4+ years is one that I think the team would regret (again, depends on the money).

2 Years, yes, I'd be fine with that.
3 Years, I'm on the fence
4+ Years, no way I'd touch that.

Maybe I'm wrong and Eric's decline over the past few years will cease as that's completely possible, but I'm not betting on a guy that will be 36 years old when a 4 years old in the last year of his deal.

If we're going to resign him, either before the TDL or after the start of FA, and it's likely that both term and AAV will exceed what we would consider ideal...how much can we mitigate that under the current CBA by front-loading the contract?

If we're going to end up signing him to something like 4y/$7M AAV then I'd much rather pay him $8M or $8.5M for next season if it means we can get the last years of his deal down closer to $5.5M or $5.75M when his performance is likely to be lower, we might have desire to move him and we would potentially need the extra money (and cap-space as a result of moving him) to resign our then-core younger players.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Another thing is you don't have to look at just 1 C's available via UFA. Take the money from Staal, Ward, Gerbe, Liles, and go out and sign a couple guys like Ladd, Eriksson, Versteeg, Hudler, etc... Yeah, I know the Canes haven't done well in in free agency, but in fairness, they haven't had this much money to work with in a while either.

For example:

Eriksson/Ladd-Rask-Lindholm
Versteeg-Staal-Nestrasil
Skinner-Aho/Helm/Hudler-PDG
Nordstrom - McClement -Nash/McGinn/Malone/some AHL guy

Yeah, not all of those will happen by any means and I just did that off the top of my head so there wasn't a lot of thought going into it, but my point being that there are other options out there than just signing Eric or overpaying for some other 1C.

 

[CalUK]

I think he will end up signing withe team, he appears to want to stay.

Personally, I would like him to stay. Why not? He wants to be at the Canes, and he can help the younger skaters develop over the next few years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think he will end up signing withe team, he appears to want to stay.

Personally, I would like him to stay. Why not? He wants to be at the Canes, and he can help the younger skaters develop over the next few years.

The answer to that will depend on price and length of contract.

 

[Ole Gil]

Another thing is you don't have to look at just 1 C's available via UFA. Take the money from Staal, Ward, Gerbe, Liles, and go out and sign a couple guys like Ladd, Eriksson, Versteeg, Hudler, etc... Yeah, I know the Canes haven't done well in in free agency, but in fairness, they haven't had this much money to work with in a while either.

For example:

Eriksson/Ladd-Rask-Lindholm
Versteeg-Staal-Nestrasil
Skinner-Aho/Helm/Hudler-PDG
Nordstrom - McClement -Nash/McGinn/Malone/some AHL guy

Yeah, not all of those will happen by any means and I just did that off the top of my head so there wasn't a lot of thought going into it, but my point being that there are other options out there than just signing Eric or overpaying for some other 1C.

Ladd has 1 less point than Eric. Eriksson had 47 points last year, but thanks to a good contract year, should get paid this offseason. Both are going to make big money for a long time. Both are 30.

This is the free agency conundrum. You're going to get a guy of Eric Staal's ability and Eric Staal's age for probably more than you'd want to pay Eric Staal and longer than you'd pay Eric Staal.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ladd has 1 less point than Eric. Eriksson had 47 points last year, but thanks to a good contract year, should get paid this offseason. Both are going to make big money for a long time. Both are 30.

This is the free agency conundrum. You're going to get a guy of Eric Staal's ability and Eric Staal's age for probably more than you'd want to pay Eric Staal and longer than you'd pay Eric Staal.

I just used those two as examples off of the top of my head to illustrate that it's not either Eric or another 1C, there are winger options as well. I think Eric will command more than both of those guys, Eriksson in particular, but that wasn't the point.

I'm not against signing Eric, and I'm not against letting him go either. It all comes down to term and price. I'm against signing him for 4 years at $7M+ for sure. I'm not against a 2 year, stop gap deal though. 3 years? I'm on the fence and it will depend on price. But I digress, this thread was meant to be what we think will happen, not what we want. I still think that Eric wants to stay, but won't give a big discount to do it so RF will have to pass. Maybe if there are no better options (for either) in UFA, it will be re-visited. Just a guess though.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I just used those two as examples off of the top of my head to illustrate that it's not either Eric or another 1C, there are winger options as well. I think Eric will command more than both of those guys, Eriksson in particular, but that wasn't the point.

I'm not against signing Eric, and I'm not against letting him go either. It all comes down to term and price. I'm against signing him for 4 years at $7M+ for sure. I'm not against a 2 year, stop gap deal though. 3 years? I'm on the fence and it will depend on price. But I digress, this thread was meant to be what we think will happen, not what we want. I still think that Eric wants to stay, but won't give a big discount to do it so RF will have to pass. Maybe if there are no better options (for either) in UFA, it will be re-visited. Just a guess though.

He needs to sign a "stop gap" contract to ensure he just doesn't coast his way through the end of his career. But he won't, so RF should have the balls to say cya.

 

[Cane mutiny]

I think he'll be traded to a playoff team for picks/prospect and return at ~6 Cap hit x 6 yrs. Structured to decrease 7-7-6-6-5-5, or something, to finish out his career here. I think he wants that. Don't really think he wants to play anywhere else at all, but he'll take one for the team to get better (returns on him).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think he'll be traded to a playoff team for picks/prospect and return at ~6 Cap hit x 6 yrs. Structured to decrease 7-7-6-6-5-5, or something, to finish out his career here. I think he wants that. Don't really think he wants to play anywhere else at all, but he'll take one for the team to get better (returns on him).

Please RF, no.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Obviously that's what I'm saying and Bob McKenzie is right 100% of the time.

I was being obtuse because I was tired and cranky.

Nevertheless, Eric Staal isn't in the same ballpark as Kopitar. **** SG's good buddy Lambert thinks Kopitar is the best player in the league. While I don't go that far I would say Kopitar is much closer to being the best player in the league than he is to being at Eric Staal's level.

 

[Cane mutiny]

Please RF, no.

it's just a guess, maybe RF won't bite, but it is less than Staal could get somewhere else, and probably less than CAR would have to pay to get a comparable guy to fill his spot. I wouldn't have a fit except for the 6yrs, but I think that would be the sticking point for Staal, even more than the dollars he will be looking for the length of contract. He won't want to be scrambling for a job at the end of his career. Maybe RF can get him even cheaper for the 6yrs...7-6-6-5-3-3 @5M cap? Anyway, I think they will work out a deal to come back...hope it's not too painful.