Why the Swiss won't win their pool

[misterchainsaw]

So I've seen a bunch of posters mentioning how if the Swiss win out they will finish 4-1 and possibly win their pool. Here is why I think that winning the pool, even at 4-1, is a near impossibility.

STANDINGS:

Finland 2-0 (4 points, +11 goal differential)
Canada 2-1 (4 points, +7 GD)
Swiss 2-1 (4 points, -2 GD)
Czech Republic 1-1 (2 points, +2 GD)

The first tiebreaker (I believe, anyway) is goal differential, which, to be blunt, the Swiss have almost no chance to win against any team in the pool. So, for them to take 1st, they must finish in 1st outright. So, Finland will have to lose a game and tie one, Canada lose or tie one, and Czechs lose or tie one.

A very specific set of results will have to occur for that to happen (barring any more major upsets from Italy or Germany)

a) Finland must not beat either Canada or the Czech Republic

b1) If Finland LOSES both games to Canada and the Czechs, than the Canada-Czech matchup MUST end in a tie, or the team that wins will win the group.

b2) If Finland goes 0-1-1 against Canada and the Czechs, than the team that TIES Finland must either WIN OR TIE in the CZE-CAN game.

Frankly...I don't see it happening.

Of course, if I'm wrong and head to head results are the first decider, then all the Swiss have to hope for is result (a)

Click to read more...

 

[Habsruleen]

I thought it came down to goal differential as well, yet:

http://www.nhl.com/olympics/2006/standings.html

has the Swiss ahead of Canada.

 

[Jazz]

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head matchup - so this puts Swiss ahead.

 

[MXD]

Well, if they're tying Canada or Czech, they're gonna be ahead of them on the basis of head-to-head games.

 

[Namso]

head to head is first.

 

[naihlflames]

Wow, just imagine the thought of this thread pre-Olympics

 

[#37]

Isn't the fact that someone had to start a thread with this title victory enough...

 

[misterchainsaw]

head to head is first.

*shrug* oh well...I've heard nothing all tournament about how important goal differential is...when in reality its only important if you tie the team that you might end up tied with overall (US/Latvia) or if you end up in a multiple team tie.

I still don't see Finland losing to the Czechs though....

 

[Kaizer]

I want to see why the swiss won't win Olympics thread

 

[misterchainsaw]

Isn't the fact that someone had to start a thread with this title victory enough...

Don't get me wrong, I love that the Swiss won, I just saw a lot of people in the GDT and alos in the NHL.com recap saying that the Swiss have a great chance to win their pool...even if head to head is first tiebreaker, I'd put them at no better than 30% or so...

 

[Namso]

*shrug* oh well...I've heard nothing all tournament about how important goal differential is...when in reality its only important if you tie the team that you might end up tied with overall (US/Latvia) or if you end up in a multiple team tie.

I still don't see Finland losing to the Czechs though....

the only place goal differential was important was in women's where canada and us don't play till the final (well not anymore but...) so head to head didn't count.

 

[Jazz]

Isn't the fact that someone had to start a thread with this title victory enough...

Agreed!

 

[#37]

Don't get me wrong, I love that the Swiss won, I just saw a lot of people in the GDT and alos in the NHL.com recap saying that the Swiss have a great chance to win their pool...even if head to head is first tiebreaker, I'd put them at no better than 30% or so...

I just love the fact that, so far, it isn't playing out as scripted. Its anybodys tournament.

 

[Jazz]

I just love the fact that, so far, it isn't playing out as scripted. Its anybodys tournament.

Well, except Kazakhstan's....

How they won their qualifying pool while only scoring 3 goals in 3 games is still beyond belief.....

That and Austria choking on home ice.....

 

[Leo Naphta]

If the Finns lose three points ín their remaining games, and Switzerland wins their remaining games, it's a fact. I'd say it's a fifty-fifty situation.

On a sidenote, the Czechs will probably end up 4th in the group, assuming they lose against Canada. Imagine the reward for winning the second group - facing a presumably well-rested Czech team in the qf.

 

[Dogbert*]

Well, if an NHL team can ride a hot goalie to the Cup, then an Olympic team can ride one to the gold...

 

[Mules]

Well, if an NHL team can ride a hot goalie to the Cup, then an Olympic team can ride one to the gold...

Agreed..but the Swiss has two hot goalies.

 

[sabresrat]

Well, if an NHL team can ride a hot goalie to the Cup, then an Olympic team can ride one to the gold...

see Hasek, 1998

 

[Big Phil]

Canada has to grow up and play like men. This is very unacceptable to lose to Switzerland. But my kind of talk is too politically incorrect. You cant yell at a bunch of millionaires - oh I mean players - and tell them how terrible they played today. Sure we lost to Switzerland a team we beat 33-0 in 1924, but as Canadians we cant be mean to our players.

Okay my turn. If any Canadian player is reading this listen up. you guys were a joke today. A disgrace and have brought shame to a lot of people. IMO stop thinking about the Porsche that you own back in Tampa Bay (did I say that out loud?) and play like you want to win. No matter who tries to pat you on the back and encourage you just remember you were horrible today, no matter what!

 

[Force]

There is no way Switzerland will beat Germany.
Germany has to win that one else they'd be in so much trouble back home, heads would roll like crazy.