Why retooling is the best option for the Habs

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by Phozzwald, Feb 22, 2018.

  1. Milhouse40

    Milhouse40 Registered User

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    Drouin is a 3rd overall. Even if we didn't draft him, he's still a 3rd overall pick from 2013

    As for the rest... management crap the bed big time.....but thinking that drafting a tons of top 10 pick would change anything for the Habs is dreaming also. There's tons of example that doesn't work. You pretty much have to win the lottery to make it work.
     
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  2. Miller Time

    Miller Time Registered User

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    with the nightmare unfolding year over year in front of us, delusional dreaming is the only way to stay sane
     
  3. NotProkofievian

    NotProkofievian Registered User

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    Other than the fact that they declined steeply, you mean?

    What evidence do you have that Drouin is a ''legit top line winger''?

    There was even less reason to assume that something would go wrong coming into this year, and look how far that reasoning got us. Teams have injuries to their top players all the time, and don't always fold like cheap suits. The issues of our team is that our top players are not all that good, on a league wide basis, and what's backing them up is a total dumpster fire.

    If Weber and Price returns to form, we might qualify for the playoffs and be completely unable to score on our opponents again. Hooray!
     
  4. Sorinth

    Sorinth Registered User

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    Well the team has been damaged/destroyed, so we are rebuilding it.

    Adding Tavares/Dahlin isn't replacing some tools, it's getting a new toolbox.
     
  5. G0bias

    G0bias Registered User

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    Tampa scouting team missing the boat in 2013 and then us trading for that mistake isn't an argument.

    Is Drouin as good as Barkov or Seth Jones? He's not even a top 10 player in his draft year. If we trade for Griffin Reinhart, does he also count as a top 5 pick?

    But nevermind Drouin, the point was had management simply done what was mentioned in the previous post. We'd already be in a much much different situation. We'd atleast be able to put up a fight against Boston, before making any major trades or signings.

    Like you said, Boston hasn't won the lottery, they made it work. So did Vegas. But they're very much the exception to the rule.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 2:04 PM
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  6. NotProkofievian

    NotProkofievian Registered User

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    So in other words, earlier picks tend to connect much more often than later picks. In every single year you've posted except for 2012, a majority of the best players were selected in the top 10. And of course, the fact that good players were selected after a certain rank doesn't lower the value of the pick: it increases the value of good scouting.

    QED, high picks are more valuable, thanks for doing the leg work.

    Oh, now he wants to talk about Florida, a team with multiple top picks who are playing huge roles for their team. Strange that you'd mention Borgström but not Barkov.

    You can cry about Pittsburgh being lucky all you want, they made a decision to rebuild at the right time. They chose a strategy, and it paid off. You can't begrudge Edmonton McDavid, or Toronto Matthews because their strategies paid off. Boston is the single counter example in almost a decade of a team that didn't have high picks playing a major role in their success. I define success only as winning a cup.
     
  7. cactusjack

    cactusjack Registered User

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    Sure that could be a contender lineup with a great season from Price. But the odds of winning the lottery is 10%. Let's be optimistic and say we have a 25% chance signing Tavares. That adds up to 2,5% of getting Tavares and Dahlin. As for Pac vs O'Reilly we would need a top5 picks to get him and we don't have it. Or maybe we have to send AG27 with Pac, anyway i don't see Buffalo going for Pac with one year away from being an UFA.
     
  8. Milhouse40

    Milhouse40 Registered User

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    My point is that getting top pick doesn't equal successful player....even 1st overall (Yakupov)
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 2:14 PM
  9. LaP

    LaP Registered User

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    There's absolutely no reality where ROR is worth Patch+top 5 or Patch+AG. Absolutely none except maybe for Pierre Dorion's reality. Even Houle and Milsbury would not be dumb enouh to trade a top 5 pick and a high quality winger for a deluxe 2nd line center.

    The overrating of ROR is crazy. If anyone does a trade like that they'll regret it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 2:23 PM
  10. Milhouse40

    Milhouse40 Registered User

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    Did Pittsburgh tank the year they drafted Crosby....cause without him, not sure they are where they are now.
    McDavid, Crosby, Matthews are all 1st overall. Those are the pick needed in order to make a succesfull rebuild.


    As for Borgstrom, it was an example. But how the rebuild of Florida is going?
    From 2010 to 2014 they drafted top 3 in 4 years out of 5.....and they didn't even get into the PO again this years....3 years later
     
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  11. G0bias

    G0bias Registered User

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    If the management/scouting department is bad enough that it can't even come out with a top 5-10 best player in his draft year out of their top 3 ov. picks, then they'll never get the alternative right either. That's not much of an argument, it goes without saying.

    If you're implying you don't win with bad managers, then yes I agree.
     
  12. NotProkofievian

    NotProkofievian Registered User

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    They sure as **** tanked when they got Malkin. You know, the Hart, Lindsay, Ross, and Smythe winner Malkin? And the balls in that lottery were assigned on the basis of the average finishes of the previous years, so yes, in a sense they did tank for Crosby.

    It was an example of what? Something we should emulate, or something we should avoid because they didn't make the playoffs? You can't pick and choose. But I would say that their rebuild is coming along well enough. Barkov is one of the very best centers in the game who took a big step forward this year, and their prospect cup runneth over at the moment. IMO, they just need a couple good wingers to put them over the top.

    Honestly, would you not change rosters and prospect pools with Florida at the moment?
     
  13. LaP

    LaP Registered User

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    They were dead last in the league.

    We were actually the team that was lucky as we drafted 5th overall while making the playoffs that year.
     
  14. Captain Wolverine

    Captain Wolverine Registered User

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    Rebuilding is mostly tearing down the old core and building a new one (mostly with the assumption that the new core is from drafting/developing). Retooling is making aggressive changes to the roster but sticking with the core that was already there.

    Boston for instance retooled. They still have the core of Bergeron, Marchand ,Krejci, Chara and Rask that made the finals in 2013.

    Unless Montreal is taking more than a couple of pieces from the core (Pacioretty, Gallagher, Weber, Price, Galchenyuk, Drouin) then it isn't a rebuild.
     
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  15. BLONG7

    BLONG7 Registered User

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    You forgot, go to the store, and buy a 649 ticket!!
     
  16. sharknado

    sharknado Registered User

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    They has someone competent to retool. We have MB and his relatives.
     
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  17. Runner77

    Runner77 **********************************************

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    You must be joking, using votes for trophies as an indicator of performance? What's next, you're going to trot out plus/minus stats? Win stats for goalies?
     
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  18. NotProkofievian

    NotProkofievian Registered User

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    I don't think you really need to tear the whole thing down. Just enough to ensure that you finish as low as possible. If you get rid of more than that you just have to replace it with your picks anyways. I think getting rid of Patches alone would be pretty much enough to do that.
     
  19. Habs Icing

    Habs Icing Formerly Onice

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    How about a reset cause that's what The Idiot said when he announced to the world he didn't believe in windows.
     
  20. G0bias

    G0bias Registered User

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    But then you will have to replace Weber as the 1D in give or take 3 years anyways. Will we have the piece to replace him while also having filled the 1LD spot by then? Trading him now gives us a better chance at replacing him down the road. Trading him in 3-4 years, not so much.
     
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  21. Runner77

    Runner77 **********************************************

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    Bottom line: you can't rebuild, reset, retool, re-anything by relying upon the same individuals that got you to the place we're at and that have not been able to fix anything in 6 off seasons, but have actually made things worse.

    The team will only be as good as its decision-makers. Handing more draft picks to incompetents or more cap room, only provides them with a bigger margin for error but doesn't change their proven propensity to burn the team's resources while other teams are stealing players right under their noses or doing so much more with a lot less latitude, staff, budget, etc.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 3:08 PM
  22. Captain Wolverine

    Captain Wolverine Registered User

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    I'm not even sure that's the case. Sweeney traded Hamilton for a 1st and two 2nds. Which seems fine, but not great for a D-man like Hamilton. They drafted Shenyshyn (passing on some great players to take him), Forsbacka-Karlsson (who is solid, but not a great prospect) and Lauzon (who is a decent prospect, but seems to have stagnated in the AHL). He did a great job turning Lucic into Colin Miller, Kuraly and two 1st rounders. Colin Miller is great D-man, but guess what, he's in Vegas now because Boston protected Kevan Miller for some weird reason. The 1sts became Zboril (not looking great) and Trent Frederic (who has some nice upside).

    To get Savard's hit off the books and clear cap he swapped R Smith for J Hayes which is understandable but not great (plus he overpaid for Hayes almost immediately).

    He paid a 2nd and 4th for a Stempnaik rental. He paid a 3rd and a 5th for a Liles rental. He dumped Vatrano for a 3rd and probably overpaid a bit for a rental Nash.

    Sweeney seriously overpaid Beleksey and Backes in free agency.

    That doesn't look all that competent to me. What Boston had was a great core in place already (Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci, Chara, Rask). They already had Pastrnak in the system (went one spot before Montreal took Scherbak). And they were able to hit on some of their plethora of picks (McAvoy, Carlo, etc.)

    Montreal can conceivably do that too (although their starting core is much less than Boston's was). Even with the Bergevin in charge. If Vegas has taught us anything its that there's probably plenty of room to exploit inefficiencies in pro-scouting and valuations of younger NHLers. But it'll take some luck and some skill for Bergevin to build around the core he built. And I'm not sure Bergevin can actually see the type of moves he needs to make if he's so preoccupied with "attitude" and "character". Luck's pretty much what Montreal needs this point to rebuild, because Bergevin isn't some great mind.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 3:29 PM
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  23. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    Ya I guess. I actually think there is a better chance of the Habs winning the draft lottery and drafting 1st overall than there is of them even coming close to signing Tavares.
     
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  24. Runner77

    Runner77 **********************************************

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    Isn't it what this thread is? Someone's fantasy about how the Habs have a high probability of landing Dahlin, beating out 30 teams to sign Tavares, trading for ROR, how Mete is "phenomenal", how McCarron is going to crack the 4th line next year, how we apparently have some pretty good players in the pipeline (while other teams have better ones but since we're not fans of other teams we don't need to worry about their players), how just adding two top 6 centers fixes the team and how Weber and Price are not declining based on how they've both earned votes for NHL trophies.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018 at 3:28 PM
  25. sharknado

    sharknado Registered User

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    I agree. I think Vegas has made a lot of so called pro scouts look foolish. Either that or Gallant is a genius.

    There's no science to scouting and it really is mostly guessing and hoping that the kid works out. My argument is and always will be, why does a pro scout think that kid A has more potential than kid B? Does kid A have more $$ in order to get more development than kid B? Why not raise the draft age to 22 so that you will get mostly what you are seeing thus eliminating most of the guess work.
     

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