Why do the leafs give up so many shots against?

[firstemperor]

It's partly systemic, we don't run that 5-man fore-check blitz anymore because we were blowing leads too much late last year.
Our defensive system relies mainly on a zone coverage in our own end, like many teams, except we don't clog the neutral zone or blue line as much as other teams do. Other teams will run variations of a 1-1-3 or a 1-3-1 We pretty much allow the entry most of the time until we can get puck support, mostly up the middle and it's apparent that this presence dissipates mostly once the Moore, Bozak line get on the ice (and sometimes Kadri).

I'm not a huge fan of it but I'm optimistic it will pay dividends down the road. To run the type of style we do, you generally need high-end personnel at the back-end and this presence generally dissipates once Rielly-Hainsey get off the ice. I think in theory it should suit Gardiner well but he's become allergic to moving his feet lately....to the point that Zaitsev seems to be the trigger man more now, which is probably a good thing, he simplified his game far too much to one extreme earlier on in the year.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Because we have the lead most of the time

 

[Menzinger]

Because we have the lead most of the time

Yep, Score Effects.

 

[White Shadow]

5v5 Score-Adjusted

49.75ca/60 (#18)
39.08fa/60 (#24)
28.61sa/60 (#24)
27.64sca/60 (#17)
10.22hdsca/60 (#10)
2.50xga/60 (#28)
2.34ga/60 (#18)

This shows exactly what we already know about the Babcock defensive structure. Protect against the down low and back door all you can. Be willing to give up a point shot, but give the goalie full view of it.

The key stats to me - and I'm assuming the coach - is the scoring chances and high danger scoring chances, where we rank top ten and middle of the road. Not bad for a high scoring team.

 

[bbgobie]

I really liked the way Calgary was preventing zone entries with their sticks last night. Every player was reaching and poking with their stick. Hard to get around defenders that can skate with good reaches.

I'm not too worried about the number of shots, a lot are from outside. I'm concerned at the number of point blank chances where guys are wide open.

 

[jaric1862]

I think the answer is quite simple. We simply don't have good enough D-men to stop the other team from getting shots. I find they will often lose contested battles for loose pucks in the D zone. This means that what should be one shot, turns into 2/3/4 shots.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[al secord]

If you haven't learned by now that a one-handed clearance up the middle in your own end is a no- no, you don't belong in the league.

You learn at 5 years old that as a winger, you should be on the wall to help your d get the puck out of the zone.

 

[Narow]

I don't think Babcock really cares too much about how many shots they give up but more how many grade A scoring chances they give up. He has said in the past. I will give up harmless shots all day from the side boards or point where the goalie can make a save vs giving up slot shots.

I would be looking at where the shots are coming from vs the quantity. They may give up 40 but if 30 of them were harmless easy saves then who cares.

Seems as if the opposite is happening...

 

[PromisedLand]

Shots forced per game Leafs rank 20th with 31 SF on avg
NHL.com - Stats

Shots against per game Leafs rank 3rd with 34 SA on averaged
NHL.com - Stats

No prices for guessing who is the first team in allowing most SA/GP. All the toasters are broken in California as well

 

[PromisedLand]

Shots Against appears to mean nothing:

Top 10 most shots against:
5 teams above .500 (Wins/Losses(including OT/SO losses))

Top 10 least shots against:
5 teams above .500

NHL.com - Stats

You are gonna tire Freddie out; and then he would not have a lot a juice left in the playoffs, if leafs make it

 

[PromisedLand]

The Drew Doughty of coaches.

But Doughy has two cups with his name on it

 

[Slyfox]

Having Polak in the lineup doesn't help. Also, Zaitsev loves giving up the blueline and hes not the only one. Our team loves to allow teams free zone entries with the puck. No need to dump and chase against the leafs.

 

[PromisedLand]

Having Polak in the lineup doesn't help. Also, Zaitsev loves giving up the blueline and hes not the only one. Our team loves to allow teams free zone entries with the puck. No need to dump and chase against the leafs.

yup!!!

While Leafs are checked tightly in the neutral zone. I haven't seen anyone apart from Matthews, Nylander, Marner or Kadri actually make a zone entry with puck possession

 

[White Shadow]

Seems as if the opposite is happening...

You're reading that wrong. This shows exactly what ryno23 and others posted. The closer to the net you get, the better the Leafs rank when compared to the other teams.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

We might give up a lot of shots but aren't most them not high danger scoring chances? In games were shelled aren't we often leading or damn close with high danger chances? I don't entirely agree with the strategy but we seem to give other teams more opportunities for low danger shots to negate their dangerous scoring chances.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You're reading that wrong. This shows exactly what ryno23 and others posted. The closer to the net you get, the better the Leafs rank when compared to the other teams.

We clean up the front of the net well, but those shots from the slot look ugly. That's where Matthews gets most of his shots from on the other end of the rink, it's not a low scoring area.

 

[White Shadow]

We clean up the front of the net well, but those shots from the slot look ugly. That's where Matthews gets most of his shots from on the other end of the rink, it's not a low scoring area.

It's definitely the next area to clean up.

 

[dubplatepressure]

With out reading the last 4 pages, I hope someone has already pointed out that as of last week 3 of our D were in the top 10 in the league in giveaways. That kind of leads to more shots against.

 

[Rogie]

We might give up a lot of shots but aren't most them not high danger scoring chances? In games were shelled aren't we often leading or damn close with high danger chances? I don't entirely agree with the strategy but we seem to give other teams more opportunities for low danger shots to negate their dangerous scoring chances.

Well, just to add to your observations which I agree with, the advanced stats movements has brought a lot of this to light.

Corsi's includes ANY SHOT ATTEMPT, and then, Fenwicks - are Corsis but exclude the blocked shots, and then there are SHOTS, and I"m not entirely certain any longer just how the NHL or some of the stats sites define these shots or, rather how they are measured and collected.

In any event, then, there is a further subdividing (for lack of a better word) of the shots into smaller and more specific categories. So, we get to High Danger and Low Danger shots. I like is the Scoring Chance Category, which is obviously a subset of Corsis. I don't know if it's a subset of Fenwicks, because if someone (shooter) is in close or whatever and fires the puck from a good location and then it's blocked, I don't know if that's a Scoring chance or not. And, I assume it's the Scoring Chance (larger category) that is further divided to High Danger, Low Danger etc etc Scoring Chances, but, not sure of how they ALL measured.

But, in any event, I wanted to make the point that while our Corsi and Shot numbers aren't so great - when looking at 5v5 scoring and venue adjusted - our Scoring Chances/60 ranks 4th, our Scoring Chances Against/60 ranks around 15th and the ratio SCF% ranks a fairly respectable 6th at 53.2%.

The numbers - for those interested are for 5v5 score and venue adjusted:
31.4 SCF/60 (4th behind Canes/Lightning/Hawks)
27.6 SCA/60 (15th so middle of the league)
53.2 SCF% (6th behind Cane/Bolts/Blues/Bruins/jackets) calculated by [31.4 / (31.4+27.6)]

edit: stats from naturalstattrick.com

 

[613Leafer]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

It's been happening here for YEARS.

Ron Wilson, Randy Carlyle and now Mike Babcock.

I don't have an answer, but it has to be a combination of several things. It's become very frustrating.

The last time we were in the top 15 for GAA was 2003-2004. TOP 15!!?!? We literally haven't even met the threshold of "average" team defensively in 14 years, and even from 2000-2004, the highest we ranked was 10th.

So we haven't been a legitimately good defensive team in decades. Even during the Gilmour years, wasn't that the main weakness of the team? (I couldn't find NHL team goals against stats from before 2000-2001).

Leafs have literally never had a Norris trophy winner, haven't won a Vezina since 1965, and only have one Selke trophy in their history (Gilmour in the early 1990s).

 

[realgoodleafs]

Too many small and/or soft players.

 

[Mugzy97]

Bad roster choices and bad line choices make us play bad, which leads to lots of shots against.

There are a lot of good opinions and perspectives in here, but this isn’t one of them.

 

[Pookie]

Set aside some of the questions about Corsi, Score Effects and the rest.

Let's assume that the Leafs get outshot.

1. Given that games are independent events, each one is not connected to the last one, why is this a problem?

2. Assume they "fix" it, and play the remaining 50ish games and reduce shot attempts.... how does this benefit them while in a 7 game series against a yet unnamed opponent that will invariably have scouts, video analysis and a game plan... that will vary game by game... ?

If the goal of the phase 1 of the Cup run is to collect points to get into the playoffs... they are doing it. If they want to sit back and not lose the single point... trap... or 1-1-3 or 1-3-1... or simply line 5 guys up in the crease and absorb shots... so be it. Whatever gets the point(s).

Seems much ado about nothing.

 

[Coachcorner]

We have eh uh, offensively minded and oriented linup and system. We do think scoring a lot. We got some cool and collective D, but our main focus is that speedy gonzalez offense. And that there cool as moon. We gon get ours. Our D getting better too, we have some young fools playing for us. Polak is pushing other people around so we could breath. He also ices that cake and does his on the PK. That's the real icing on the cake y'all. We could be making sort of an real move on D, like getting some real dirt back and giving one of the offensively talented young dorks to some fool team. Some dumb gm will always give away some cool D do get some dirt on offense. We surely have the puzzles on offense so we can spare some. We got square to spare like they says it seinfeld.