Why do the leafs give up so many shots against?

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,662
Lots of good teams with high end coaches give up a lot of shots.
  • Chicago
  • Caps
  • Pens
  • kings
  • Preds
 

Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
12,642
4,119
GTA or the UK
Last year after February 2017, the Leafs were good defensively. I thought they had adjusted to Babcock's system and the new players were playing with continuity.
This season, despite having a relatively stable lineup, their defensively has been worse than last year. Puzzling.

Yep.

Something that went relatively unmentioned here last year, was that in the back half of the season Polak-Hunwick partnership started to pull their weight a lot more than they did in the first half of the season.

That helped a lot - not having a pairing that was as big an anchor as the first half of the season
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,532
Ottawa
the Leafs are getting more shot attempts, more scoring chances, more high danger scoring chances, more expected goals, and more actual goals than their opponents.
That's because we have an elite offense and have the talent to outscore our problems. All of our defensive metrics are in the toilet. Our total corsi and fenwick attempts against are both third last, but our elite offense means we're positive. Scoring chances against are bottom five, high danger chances against 10th worst but our elite offense means we're positive. We're winning games because we're positive in these metrics, but according to those stats it just means we're playing firewagon hockey. I agree with your general premise that the Leafs defense is underrated. I think we have the players and the coach to be far, far better. I think that these numbers are more the results of our poor team play than, "omg leafs d sux lol". If the Leafs want to be an elite team, they need to be better. The fix can be as simple as starting on time. 10 more minutes of effort per game sees those numbers go from bad to average. Fixing the breakout and getting hemmed in less sees those numbers go from bad to average. With our elite offense and good/great goaltending, average defensive metrics and make us an extremely good team.
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
26,647
32,951
You guus do realize we create a lot more chances then the opposition right? Yesterday was just the exception. The Leafs started playing their best hockey starting around January last season so it might take some time. Plus I dont buy Babcock's system is to get outshot every game. Im pretty sure Leafs will improve in this area so I am not too worried about it, but the breakout is wierd. That needs to get fixed just dont know if thats a system issue or players not executing
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
That's because we have an elite offense and have the talent to outscore our problems. All of our defensive metrics are in the toilet. Our total corsi and fenwick attempts against are both third last, but our elite offense means we're positive. Scoring chances against are bottom five, high danger chances against 10th worst but our elite offense means we're positive. We're winning games because we're positive in these metrics, but according to those stats it just means we're playing firewagon hockey. I agree with your general premise that the Leafs defense is underrated. I think we have the players and the coach to be far, far better. I think that these numbers are more the results of our poor team play than, "omg leafs d sux lol". If the Leafs want to be an elite team, they need to be better. The fix can be as simple as starting on time. 10 more minutes of effort per game sees those numbers go from bad to average. Fixing the breakout and getting hemmed in less sees those numbers go from bad to average. With our elite offense and good/great goaltending, average defensive metrics and make us an extremely good team.


5v5 Score-Adjusted

49.75ca/60 (#18)
39.08fa/60 (#24)
28.61sa/60 (#24)
27.64sca/60 (#17)
10.22hdsca/60 (#10)
2.50xga/60 (#28)
2.34ga/60 (#18)
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,532
Ottawa
5v5 Score-Adjusted

49.75ca/60 (#18) -> 18th is bad.
39.08fa/60 (#24) -> 24th is really bad
28.61sa/60 (#24) -> 24th is really bad
27.64sca/60 (#17) -> 17th is bad
10.22hdsca/60 (#10) -> 10th is actually okay
2.50xga/60 (#28) -> terrible
2.34ga/60 (#18) -> 18th is bad

All of the numbers you just posted, with the exception of HDSCA/60, are terrible or at best below average.
 

Mr Hockey

Toronto
May 11, 2017
11,156
3,662
All of the numbers you just posted, with the exception of HDSCA/60, are terrible or at best below average.

They are only bad because there is no context :)

"adjusted"
  • 2nd in XGF/60
  • 28'th in XGA/60
 
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Ziggdiezan

Registered User
Apr 10, 2015
10,847
5,676
Lots of the shots the Leafs give up are from very low scoring percenage zones I feel like.

Obviously certain games are exceptions but I feel like the Leafs style allows shots from far out and bad angles but tries to stop the shots/tips in the slot.
 

Damisoph

Registered User
Jun 29, 2010
8,986
2,312
Maybe it's just me but I think the harping on shots against is a little much. Yes there are some games that we give up far too many high danger shots, last night is one example. Most games though a high % of the shots come from the point, half boards, bad angles, etc. It's almost like the players are all too aware of their corsi rating and fire it from everywhere.

Saying that, there are major issues with our breakouts, the system is ok but the players seem to think too much, the horrific ice at the ACC is also a problem.
 

Erndog

Registered User
Jul 17, 2007
4,092
1,525
5v5 Score-Adjusted

49.75ca/60 (#18)
39.08fa/60 (#24)
28.61sa/60 (#24)
27.64sca/60 (#17)
10.22hdsca/60 (#10)
2.50xga/60 (#28)
2.34ga/60 (#18)


oufff, this doesn't make me feel any better.

That's pretty bad overall
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,532
Ottawa
They are only bad because there is no context :)

"adjusted"
  • 2nd in XGF/60
  • 28'th in XGA/60

That adds the context that explains why we're able to win games, which I have totally understand. But it still says we're struggling defensively, which matches what we're seeing on the ice and the results we're having. Our offense is better than our deffense is bad, so it's a net positive, but our defense has still been bad.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
All of the numbers you just posted, with the exception of HDSCA/60, are terrible or at best below average.

they are mostly "below average".

but that's just a starting point - because i never like looking at those numbers alone.

the leafs could lower those numbers substantially, by sacrificing offensive chances via say trapping like other teams with "better" numbers do, but not actually be better off for it.
 

MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,376
2,233
Toronto
Defensive lapses and the slow starts and letting opponents control the game are the reasons
 

DarkKnight

Professional Amateur
Jan 17, 2017
32,092
49,362
upgrade the D all you want, but last night's 40-odd shots against were mostly because our forwards were unable to maintain offensive zone possession.
My point isn't referencing one game, so that's kind of whatever to general reality....we need an upgrade on D if we can swing it.
 

Brobust

Registered User
Sep 29, 2017
6,869
6,300
They still mostly out-chance the opposition. Corsi is getting less and less valuable.
 

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