Why do the leafs give up so many shots against?

Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
12,623
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GTA or the UK
Our zone exit strategy is to toss the puck up the boards and pray a forward is uncontested there to retrieve it. Leads to a lot of turnovers and icings, just giving the other team another chance at possession.

I think Babcock is a really good coach, but this part of his system baffles me.

Just a small defense of this - the zone exit strategy seems to have been tweaked lately, as a result of many teams cluing into what New Jersey did to the Leafs a few weeks ago : playing their F3 very deep in the neutral zone, almost like a third blueliner. Calgary employed the exact same strategy last night, to great success.

It means the Leafs have no speed through the neutral zone and no transition game, which is one of the biggest strengths of this team.
 
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LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
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Except it's not just fake logic games this time - it's fact.

according to naturalstattrick:

33.47 shots against per 60min (29th)
28.78 scoring chances against per 60min (26th)
10.77 high-danger scoring chances per 60min (14th)

Last year's Senators gave up 10.37 high danger chances per 60 minutes (13th best)
27.47 scoring chances against per 60 (22nd)
29.64 shots against (16th)

So we're actually giving up even more chances and shots than the Senators. I agree that keeping shots to the outside is better and a few more shots here and there from the point is fine. But we're not giving up 40+ a game because of a strategy. We're giving up 40+ when we're getting outworked and hemmed in our own zone. We shouldn't be looking at our shots against numbers and thinking, "everything is fine", we should be thinking "The boys are playing badly". 14th in the league in HDCA is not good for a team looking for contender status. 26th in scoring chances against is an absolute nightmare.
 

Tall Morty

Visualize the action to actualize the vision
Apr 18, 2017
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Do you think that the improvement over last year is just progression from a few players? Matthews was ridiculous to start. Marner and Nylander are shy on goals but post up assists. Hainsey has stabilized Rielly. Marleau has added 40-50 points for just cap hit...positive impact on the roster.

McBackUp better than Enroth.

It's a lot of things really. No Matthews slump this year. Nylander, Marner are putting up similar points to last year despite being in "slumps". Hainsey > Hunwick. Rielly > Last year's Rielly. November-December Andersen > Any goalie ever :sarcasm:. And like you said, just having Marleau makes a difference. It helps that we're winning shootouts too.

McElhinney is definitely better than Enroth was last year, but the difference is 0-3-1 (Enroth) vs. 2-2-0 (McElhinney), which is only 3 points.
 

WTFMAN99

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
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It's a lot of things really. No Matthews slump this year. Nylander, Marner are putting up similar points to last year despite being in "slumps". Hainsey > Hunwick. Rielly > Last year's Rielly. November-December Andersen > Any goalie ever :sarcasm:. And like you said, just having Marleau makes a difference. It helps that we're winning shootouts too.

McElhinney is definitely better than Enroth was last year, but the difference is 0-3-1 (Enroth) vs. 2-2-0 (McElhinney), which is only 3 points.

A bunch of little things...hoping we can clamp down on shots against, turns overs, and even goals against.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
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There's a few factors that come into play here:

1) We focus on clearing eyesight for goalie rather than block shots.
2) We give up a lot of shots from the point.

These two lead to a lot of shots on goal for their shot attempts, and a discrepancy between shot attempts and expected goals. Meaning, counting SOG makes us look much worse than we are when more things get taken into consideration.

3) We have two good puck-movers on our defense, and one of them has had a rough start to the season.
4) Our breakout system doesn't work well, and that's mostly on forwards. But the remedy is to have defense skate it up more, which we for some reason won't do.
5) We still struggle to find consistently effective lines, and quite a bit of that is on Babcock.
 

Wafflewhipper

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Jan 18, 2014
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This team is young but they are good. Other teams figure out ways to shut them down and they believe that they are good still.

They need to grow and learn alot still. We don't have a top six bottom six way of operating either. All four lines are playing offensively with trust they will be heads up defensively also.

They just don't have it all together yet. I think the defense is the most agressive offensive defense in the league aren't they????

Its a very young team that knows how to score but is learning defense on the fly.

The last game they played the flames on the road was a complete gem. Calgary regrouped and out played us this time.

Our game management is young!
 

White Shadow

Registered User
Jan 7, 2016
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There's a few factors that come into play here:

1) We focus on clearing eyesight for goalie rather than block shots.
2) We give up a lot of shots from the point.


These two lead to a lot of shots on goal for their shot attempts, and a discrepancy between shot attempts and expected goals. Meaning, counting SOG makes us look much worse than we are when more things get taken into consideration.

3) We have two good puck-movers on our defense, and one of them has had a rough start to the season.
4) Our breakout system doesn't work well, and that's mostly on forwards. But the remedy is to have defense skate it up more, which we for some reason won't do.
5) We still struggle to find consistently effective lines, and quite a bit of that is on Babcock.

As an example, we gave up more shots from the point last night than we did down low.
 

meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
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Bangkok
1) We are but two years removed from being the last placed team in the NHL.
2) No matter how good AM is he cannot overcome the deficiencies this team has.
3) We are a team that was rebuilding on an Offensive mandate moreso than a Defensive mandate, and this shows.
4) Our D players are essentially the same as they were two years ago. I say essentially, because while those who have been changed may have better skills than those who were here two years ago, they are younger and have been unable to adjust to the demands of the league at this time and those who are veterans tend to be older and losing a step or two in the race to adequacy.
5) We are saddled with some of the most inept forwards in the league when it comes to D responsibilities.
6) Whether by choice or response, we have not been able to trade/rid ourselves of those forwards who habitually display terrible defensive play.
7) We have a young team. Many think we are contenders for the Cup. Yes, magic can happen, but really, if we were to continue at our current pace, would anyone, could anyone, complain? I think not. However, our weakness may not stand up to the scrutiny of the playoffs. A round or two, maybe, might be achievable, but we are not a sound defensive team. We've not had enough time to grown as a unit, and our weaknesses are apparent to all. Those weaknesses will be exploited.
8) As a fan base we demand so much more of this team than it can realistically offer. Whether it is Bozak, JVR, Polak, Carrick, Hyman, what have you, our base expects the best from this team every single night! Sheer lunacy. And then they complain about the coach who has more experience and success with teams than any coach we've had in years. It boggles the mind. In essence, chill! Today's team isn't tomorrow's, or next year's, we don't know what management desires or who they see as fitting into the organizational philosophy. It's tough, we all want to enjoy the drive, but sometimes, if you don't know the roads you just have to go along for the ride as opposed to criticizing the route and the driver.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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Last year's Senators gave up 10.37 high danger chances per 60 minutes (13th best)
27.47 scoring chances against per 60 (22nd)
29.64 shots against (16th)

So we're actually giving up even more chances and shots than the Senators.

There was nothing wrong or unsustainable about the Sens' defensive play last year.
 

ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
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Vancouver
Our dmen are on the weak side defensively, and the only forward line we have that’s really great at puck possession is the Hyman/Matthews/Nylander line, who haven’t even been together recently.

Winning the shots battle is largely about puck possession, both keeping the puck when you have it and getting it back quickly when you don’t. Other than the Hyman/Matthews/Nylander line, our roster isn’t great at this.

I do think our breakouts and general neutral zone play could improve, but I think a larger issue is us not quickly winning the puck back in our own zone, or not keeping extended pressure in the O-zone. Also, we often resort to weak icings and flip outs because we’re exhausted, late in a shift where we’ve been chasing the puck in our own zone for way too long. Winning possession is the main issue here IMO, if we could do so quicker we’d have more energy for legit breakouts, vs just trying to flip it out and get off the ice.
 

Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
11,529
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T.O.
For the most part, we have generated more quality scoring chances than the opposition. Last night's game was more of an exception than the norm if you look at our season as a whole.
 

IPS

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
15,461
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The first thing that needs to be fixed is our very crappy transition game. Despite having mobile D-men who are adept at moving the puck (atleast from what I've seen in the past) and a speedy and skilled forward group, our transition game is absolute garbage. I believe we lead the league in icings per game. I don't know how many times I've seen those massive stretch passes go nowhere and lead to an icing, which leads to us getting stuck in our own zone.
 

deletethis

Registered User
Mar 17, 2015
7,910
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Toronto
Shots Against appears to mean nothing:

Top 10 most shots against:
5 teams above .500 (Wins/Losses(including OT/SO losses))

Top 10 least shots against:
5 teams above .500

NHL.com - Stats
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
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Ottawa
There was nothing wrong or unsustainable about the Sens' defensive play last year.

I can't tell what point you're making. Are you saying the Senators were good defensively last year? Does that mean that our defense this year is fine and being outshot is totally fine?

It's good that the Leafs have positive differentials in their SCF and HDCF, but we're getting outshot because we're getting outworked. 40+ shots against and 25 for is not a game plan.
 

deletethis

Registered User
Mar 17, 2015
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Toronto
Specifically about last night's game against Calgary: Calgary is a hard working team struggling with finish outside of its first line. It really isn't surprising when a team like this throws a high volume of shots at goal and jams the crease all night.
 

Blanche Blanche

Torontoooooo
Dec 2, 2017
3,448
3,454
Toronto
i'm seeing slight improvements from their transitions then from 2 weeks ago, more tape to tape passing, a bit less fumbling.
On a very aggressive good D from Calgary too.

We'll see how they do vs the pens!
 

Knies iT

Registered User
Mar 6, 2015
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The lines are too one dimensional; maximizes their deficiencies.

JVR/Bozak/Marner: terrible defensively, bleed chances against, poor possession, get out shot
Naz/Leo/Marleau: slow line, lacking a line driver ala Nylander, spend little time in the O zone because of this
Hyman/AM/Brown: spend half of their shifts chasing the puck, stone hands lead to turnovers, render Matthews useless
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,912
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Leafs Home Board
Good defensive teams sacrifice offense to play defense which in the process reduces shots and scoring chances against.

Leafs tend to sacrifice defense with and desire to play offense and it results in increased work for their goalie.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

Registered User
Dec 18, 2015
6,283
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Lake Huron
Last year after February 2017, the Leafs were good defensively. I thought they had adjusted to Babcock's system and the new players were playing with continuity.
This season, despite having a relatively stable lineup, their defensively has been worse than last year. Puzzling.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Leafs Home Board
Leafs are missing that big minute munching #1Dman that plays 25+ minutes a night in all situations.

Defense by committee has its drawbacks as quantity is not as good as quality.
 

HoweHullOrr

Registered User
Oct 3, 2013
11,585
2,196
It's simply not a strong defensive roster we've got right now.

I'll play "devils advocate" here. Maybe the strategy of outscoring our opponents is the main strategy. Perhaps this suits the collection of players that we have and plays to their strengths. As long as it results in wins, we are OK.

Just throwing the concept out for discussion.

The downside would be is this sustainable in the playoffs and down the stretch when things tighten up and get harder?
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
I can't tell what point you're making. Are you saying the Senators were good defensively last year? Does that mean that our defense this year is fine and being outshot is totally fine?

It's good that the Leafs have positive differentials in their SCF and HDCF, but we're getting outshot because we're getting outworked. 40+ shots against and 25 for is not a game plan.

the Leafs are getting more shot attempts, more scoring chances, more high danger scoring chances, more expected goals, and more actual goals than their opponents.
 

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