Why do the leafs give up so many shots against?

[A1LeafNation]

Is it Babcocks system?

The defence?

The forwards not back checking enough?

The team can't clear the zone well?

We have the lead a lot, so other teams are consistently chasing us?

Probably a little of everything and more.

What's the solution? What are other factors?

Click to read more...

 

[Nizdizzle]

Our zone exit strategy is to toss the puck up the boards and pray a forward is uncontested there to retrieve it. Leads to a lot of turnovers and icings, just giving the other team another chance at possession.

I think Babcock is a really good coach, but this part of his system baffles me.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The forwards not back checking enough?

The team can't clear the zone well?

I think it's a combination of those two things
They definitely have to work on it

And many times they're quality, walk-right-in shots

 

[Erndog]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

It's been happening here for YEARS.

Ron Wilson, Randy Carlyle and now Mike Babcock.

I don't have an answer, but it has to be a combination of several things. It's become very frustrating.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Our zone exit strategy is to toss the puck up the boards and pray a forward is uncontested there to retrieve it. Leads to a lot of turnovers and icings, just giving the other team another chance at possession.

I think Babcock is a really good coach, but this part of his system baffles me.

Babcock’s system is short passes and support from the forwards for a controlled zone exit. Or at least it was. Teams have adapted.

We play a variety of set plays and systems and it’s a constant game of cat and mouse adapting to changes from the opponent.

We also have a young group and time will lead to improvement.

Liljegren will be a force.

We have a highly mobile defensive corps and it’s just a matter of time before the skills are honed and we really start showing teams what we can do.

Another thing is that we’re playing a very aggressive system, almost a 4-0-1 but I guess more of a 2-1-1-1 system.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Freddy has made 33 or more saves in 8 of his last 11 games. He's made 40 or more saves in 4 of his last 6. This has got to change

 

[PuckMagi]

Bad roster choices and bad line choices make us play bad, which leads to lots of shots against.

 

[Morgs]

If you looked at yesterday's shot attempts, you'd see that both Rielly and Gardiner were positive 5v5. What does that tell you?

Also, Matthews with Brown instead of Nylander is much worse.

 

[Sypher04]

One thing I don't understand is why our defense are continually trying to fling the puck up the ice to the furthest possible winger when the rest of our group is still down low from defending. I mean, I get the idea of wanting to catch the opposition defense flat, or quickly get behind them, but more often than not this doesn't seem to be what happens. What instead happens is say for example Hyman receives the puck (if the pass makes contact at all), he tries to move into the zone along the boards and is either stripped or tries to dump it, but Matthews/winger of the week aren't far enough along to support him yet, so inevitably we lose control of the puck before Matthews makes it to the offensive zone, and we get turned back to play defense. Insert any line in example.

It's infuriating to watch.

 

[Mess]

Leafs give up the most shots against in the league because they're not strong defensively, do not have a lot of players willing to sacrifice by blocking shots and have too many players focused on offense and blowing the zone (as opposed to providing support) and constantly thinking scoring and not defending.

This personnel flaw that has the Leafs more of a figure skating team than hockey team.

Giving up the most shots against is a flaw in team build and playing with fire because it forces your goalie to be on his game night after night and that doesn't happen even for the best in the World.

Case in point last night where Andersen was forced to make 47 saves and record a .979 SV% for Leafs to win this game.. That isn't a sustainable SV% long-term.

If a team surrenders 45 shots against with the average NHL shooting % = 10% then the math says on average that's 4.5 GAA/g as the potential goals against result, forcing a team to score 5 themselves to win. The bigger the sample size becomes the bigger the problem is as winning isn't sustainable by defying the odds.

 

[Sypher04]

Leafs give up the most shots against in the league because they're not strong defensively, do not have a lot of players willing to sacrifice by blocking shots and have too many players focused on offense and blowing the zone (as opposed to providing support) and constantly thinking scoring and not defending.

This personnel flaw that has the Leafs more of a figure skating team than hockey team.

Giving up the most shots against is a flaw in team build and playing with fire because it forces your goalie to be on his game night after night and that doesn't happen even for the best in the World.

If a team surrenders 45 shots against with the average NHL shooting % = 10% then the math says on average that's 4.5 GAA/g as the potential goals against result, forcing a team to score 5 themselves to win. The bigger the sample size becomes the bigger the problem is as winning isn't sustainable by defying the odds.

While you're not wrong, I do think this is an oversimplification. There are systemic problems here that I think our putting us back on our toes too often, as well as contributing to those players being out of position to provide support.

 

[LeafGrief]

Our breakouts are an absolute travesty and cost us possession with maddening frequency. The whole thing is set up for stretch passes that nobody other than Gardiner has the vision to complete. We flip the puck up the ice to their defensemen. We shoot the puck up the boards to their defensemen. We try stretch passes that miss and go for icings. We spend entire shifts in our zone, chip the puck in, change and repeat. Fix the breakout and this team probably looks elite.

 

[Sypher04]

Our breakouts are an absolute travesty and cost us possession with maddening frequency. The whole thing is set up for stretch passes that nobody other than Gardiner has the vision to complete. We flip the puck up the ice to their defensemen. We shoot the puck up the boards to their defensemen. We try stretch passes that miss and go for icings. We spend entire shifts in our zone, chip the puck in, change and repeat. Fix the breakout and this team probably looks elite.

I actually think Rielly is better at it than Gardiner, but none of them are great. The problem is they're forcing it instead of taking it when it's given. And at this point it's been happening for so long that it can't be against the coaches wishes imo.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Our zone exit strategy is to toss the puck up the boards and pray a forward is uncontested there to retrieve it. Leads to a lot of turnovers and icings, just giving the other team another chance at possession.

I think Babcock is a really good coach, but this part of his system baffles me.

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

It's been happening here for YEARS.

Ron Wilson, Randy Carlyle and now Mike Babcock.

I don't have an answer, but it has to be a combination of several things. It's become very frustrating.

Freddy has made 33 or more saves in 8 of his last 11 games. He's made 40 or more saves in 4 of his last 6. This has got to change

All of this. No team with cup aspirations does this.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Leafs give up the most shots against in the league because they're not strong defensively, do not have a lot of players willing to sacrifice by blocking shots and have too many players focused on offense and blowing the zone (as opposed to providing support) and constantly thinking scoring and not defending.

This personnel flaw that has the Leafs more of a figure skating team than hockey team.

Giving up the most shots against is a flaw in team build and playing with fire because it forces your goalie to be on his game night after night and that doesn't happen even for the best in the World.

Case in point last night where Andersen was forced to make 47 saves and record a .979 SV% for Leafs to win this game.. That isn't a sustainable SV% long-term.

If a team surrenders 45 shots against with the average NHL shooting % = 10% then the math says on average that's 4.5 GAA/g as the potential goals against result, forcing a team to score 5 themselves to win. The bigger the sample size becomes the bigger the problem is as winning isn't sustainable by defying the odds.

It doesn’t matter what forward line we have out there or what defense pairng we have our there. The forwards are gonna skate to the opposing teams blue line while our dmen pass back and forth looking for the stretch pass before ultimately icing the puck. This isn’t a personnel flaw, it’s a system flaw. If it was a couple forwards I’d understand, but literally everyone is doing it.

 

[ryno23]

I don't think Babcock really cares too much about how many shots they give up but more how many grade A scoring chances they give up. He has said in the past. I will give up harmless shots all day from the side boards or point where the goalie can make a save vs giving up slot shots.

I would be looking at where the shots are coming from vs the quantity. They may give up 40 but if 30 of them were harmless easy saves then who cares.

 

[Smif]

I think it's by design. Our forwards are playing very low - collapsing toward the net, leaving the points wide open. My guess is our advanced statisticians have come to the conclusion that giving up a point shot is considered a low percentage shot so our system forces teams to take lots of shots but not good ones.

I noticed this as more of a weakness when we played St Louis because they have quite a few big shooters on the point.

 

[Tall Morty]

Last year after 29 games they were 11-11-7 with 83 GF (18 less than we have this year) and 90 GA (5 more than this year). They were 14th in the Eastern conference. This year they are 2nd (for now at least).

I know they haven't looked pretty a lot of the time, but they are considerably better than they were last year. If they start losing, then I'll be worried, but if they can keep stringing wins together, I could not care less how many shots they allow. And before anyone asks, yes, I am aware of the correlation between shots allowed and goals against.

That said, @Sypher04's comment about the hail mary passes that end up being turnovers or icings was spot on, as it is incredibly frustrating to watch at times. Are outlet passes not a thing anymore?

 

[TheProspector]

The answer is line matching.

Babcock's obsession with line matching really costs this team effective neutral zone structure.

The effect is less pronounced at home, where our CF% is 51.18%, relative to 49.51% away. Trying to change on the fly, and making your players paranoid about when to change on the fly, makes them them play poorly. At home, we are 12th best in the league at shot attempts against (55.51/60), and away, we are 25th in the league (59.94/60).

The impact of line matching can also be observed in CF% in score effects -- when ahead, our CF% is a horrifying 46.95%; when the game is close, we are 24th in the league at 47.97%. But, when we are behind, Babcock abandons linematching to go for the goal, and 3rd in the league at 57.23%.

It's linematching, and it's killing this team defensively.

 

[ToneDog]

Our zone exit strategy is to toss the puck up the boards and pray a forward is uncontested there to retrieve it. Leads to a lot of turnovers and icings, just giving the other team another chance at possession.

I think Babcock is a really good coach, but this part of his system baffles me.

Agreed. I don't get why it has taken so long to fix this.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Its all on the players and they seem to play better defensively on the road.

Still not a good defensive team and get caught thinking offense to much. It needs to be cleaned up particularly between the faceoff dots. Perimeter shots are fine. Freddie can handle the workload apparently and doesn't seem bothered.

They do try keeping play to the outside but Babcock knows well and tells them the right way.

Its the players fault.

 

[LeafGrief]

I actually think Rielly is better at it than Gardiner, but none of them are great. The problem is they're forcing it instead of taking it when it's given. And at this point it's been happening for so long that it can't be against the coaches wishes imo.

I don't think Rielly is that great of a passer. He's okay but he really shines when he skates it out and leads or joins rushes. It solves the problem, just in a different way.

I don't think Babcock really cares too much about how many shots they give up but more how many grade A scoring chances they give up. He has said in the past. I will give up harmless shots all day from the side boards or point where the goalie can make a save vs giving up slot shots.

I think it's by design. Our forwards are playing very low - collapsing toward the net, leaving the points wide open. My guess is our advanced statisticians have come to the conclusion that giving up a point shot is considered a low percentage shot so our system forces teams to take lots of shots but not good ones.

This is the exact logic that we had with the Carlyle Leafs and that the Senators had last year. Shots get tipped in, shots bounce off the glass funny, shots are always a good play in hockey and every coach ever tells their players that. It is true that we're often the better team in terms of scoring chances and high danger chances, but the simple problem is that we're getting outshot because we're getting outplayed. Teams are able to dictate play against us for large portions of the hockey game and that is a bad thing. When we wake up and play our game, we steamroll opponents and have huge numbers of chances, but great goaltending is saving our butts when the team falls asleep. Teams that are outplaying their opponents don't get outshot. We've been getting outplayed lately, fortunately we do more with less, so we still get the wins.

 

[zeke]

This is the exact logic that we had with the Carlyle Leafs and that the Senators had last year.

Except it's not just fake logic games this time - it's fact.

according to naturalstattrick:

33.47 shots against per 60min (29th)
28.78 scoring chances against per 60min (26th)
10.77 high-danger scoring chances per 60min (14th)

 

[Macman]

The Leafs get in trouble when they don't move their feet, which is a lot lately. There's nothing wrong with the team's breakouts when they're skating. I have to think they're being told "defence first," so the instinct is to sit back a bit. The speed that other teams feared last year isn't being displayed as much. I miss it.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Last year after 29 games they were 11-11-7 with 83 GF (18 less than we have this year) and 90 GA (5 more than this year). They were 14th in the Eastern conference. This year they are 2nd (for now at least).

I know they haven't looked pretty a lot of the time, but they are considerably better than they were last year. If they start losing, then I'll be worried, but if they can keep stringing wins together, I could not care less how many shots they allow. And before anyone asks, yes, I am aware of the correlation between shots allowed and goals against.

That said, @Sypher04's comment about the hail mary passes that end up being turnovers or icings was spot on, as it is incredibly frustrating to watch at times. Are outlet passes not a thing anymore?

Do you think that the improvement over last year is just progression from a few players? Matthews was ridiculous to start. Marner and Nylander are shy on goals but post up assists. Hainsey has stabilized Rielly. Marleau has added 40-50 points for just cap hit...positive impact on the roster.

McBackUp better than Enroth.