Speculation: Who will not be back on the roster for 2018/19

Gil Fisher

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Mar 18, 2012
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We'd likely have to part with Myers and Perreault to sign both Stastny and Trouba. That would leave you with a bit of flexibility for bonuses. Have to assume Laine hits his Schedule A bonuses again in the final year of his ELC - that's another $2m or so, I believe. I have us about $3m over the cap next year before bonuses (22 players), including Myers, Perreault, Stastny and new contracts for Helly, Trouba, JMo, ALowsy, and the rest of the RFAs.

I think a lot of teams would be all over an addition like Perreault; he's a corsi darling. The remaining teams (eye testers) will be all over Myers. Advantage Chevy.
 

The Ugly Truth

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May 23, 2018
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Some people here are overreacting.

Guys we finished 2nd in the NHL, we had a fabulous playoff run where we beat the Wild and the Presidents trophy winning Predators in a 7 game series that was an all out war, and lost to a Vegas team that was being carried by Flower and had more resting time than us. We went from having 1 playoff appearance to going to the WCF for crying out loud!! We will be fine guys, our future is brighter than ever, theres no need to clean house and end up like Chicago over an unlucky series loss.

First of all, the Jets probably should have won the Cup this year. Dumb moves by Maurice and inconsistent goaltending by Hellebuyck resulted in the loss to Vegas.

Secondly, it's not a matter of cleaning house - it's about continually optimizing your roster in a league constrained by team caps. If you don't get the mix of cheap young and older expensive players right you'll quickly find yourself near the bottom of the standings.

Through a combination of luck and good drafting the Jets roster is probably in the top five of the league and they have a three or four year window where they should be strong Stanley Cup contenders. That window could be extended for several more years and the likelihood of winning may be improved further with smart roster changes.

Nashville adding Turris and Hartman is a good example of a very good team still making big changes to try to become an even more serious contender. Of course, sometimes those changes don't work out. But had those players even slightly contributed and had Rinne not crapped the bed (for the second year in a row) Nashville probably would have won the Cup this year.

If you're not trying to constantly tweak your team in this league you'll never win consistently.
 
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ERYX

'Pegger in Exile
Oct 25, 2014
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I think a lot of teams would be all over an addition like Perreault; he's a corsi darling. The remaining teams (eye testers) will be all over Myers. Advantage Chevy.

Leafs just named Kyle Dubas a big time "fancy stats" guy as their GM. Seems like someone who would look at Perrault's Corsi and be all over such a deal. I guess there are others out there but that's the first option that comes to mind. Not that Perrault is a bad player but Dubas might be more inclined to overlook his injuries given his corsi numbers. What would we want in trade from Toronto though?
 

John Agar

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This is what I think happens...

Dano is staying... they wouldn't have done the gymnastics with Enstrom otherwise...

Enstrom will stay only if he accepts a pay cut and even then probably only one year contract....

Russell will be given a 1 year two way contract...

Going for sure:

- Hendricks, hire him as an assistant for Jets or Farm...
- Stastny, we can't afford him and Roslovic should replace him as 3rd line centre...
- Matthias as he can't help this lineup given his inability to finish...

I can see a possible buy out or medical retirement of Kulikov a la Joffery Lupul...

I could see Purr' Oh' being traded as a cap move...

I could see a long term deal extension for Captain man that fits into Chevy's cap plans...

I don't think they will trade Myers unless at the draft they get too good of an offer of a very high draft pick for him from the usual suspects Edmonton or Toronto...
 
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Board Bard

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Anybody hear anyone on the team mention Thorburn this past year? He was a debit glue guy, completely expendable with no reason to give him a job anywhere on the team, including coach. Hendricks is the same.
 

voyageur

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Jul 10, 2011
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So much hinges on Stastny.

You know Enstrom, Matthias, and Hendricks won't be back. Dano is unlikely. I think DeLeo deserves a role on the team at league minimum. Skating over grit.

If Stastny goes elsewhere I think the team stays together

Maybe
Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Little-Wheeler
Perreault-Copp/Petan/DeLeo-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Armia

Maybe Lemieux beats out Tanev.
Or Armia. As I think Roslovic will be a good penalty killer, giving us Lowry-Tanev/Armia, Copp-Roslovic, Scheifele-Wheeler and Little to boot.


Substitute Morrow for Enstrom on d.

And dump one of Kulikov or Mason to get under the Cap.

Stastny staying shuffles the deck more.
 

Board Bard

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Don't know how they could pay Wheeler less than Buff. Probably try for something similar, but will Wheeler want it?
 
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The Ugly Truth

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May 23, 2018
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Don't know how they could pay Wheeler less than Buff. Probably try for something similar, but will Wheeler want it?


Buff gave the Jets a hometown (Minnesota) discount. Wheeler is another Minnesota guy and will probably do the same for 2 reasons:

The team has ridiculous talent and will be a serious Cup contender for several years. Players want to win.

True North is loyal (almost to a fault) to its players and staff, but that loyalty tends to get repaid: Enström waiving his no-trade clause for the expansion draft, Buff giving them a $500,000 - $$1,000,000 discount, Scheifele's contract, Ehlers' contract, etc. Wheeler extending for $7-7.5 million will be seen as showing the type of old-skool "leadership" that Ladd didn't.
 
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KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
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This is what I think happens...

Dano is staying... they wouldn't have done the gymnastics with Enstrom otherwise...

Enstrom will stay only if he accepts a pay cut and even then probably only one year contract....

Russell will be given a 1 year two way contract...

Going for sure:

- Hendricks, hire him as an assistant for Jets or Farm...
- Stastny, we can't afford him and Roslovic should replace him as 3rd line centre...
- Matthias as he can't help this lineup given his inability to finish...

I can see a possible buy out or medical retirement of Kulikov a la Joffery Lupul...

I could see Purr' Oh' being traded as a cap move...

I could see a long term deal extension for Captain man that fits into Chevy's cap plans...

I don't think they will trade Myers unless at the draft they get too good of an offer of a very high draft pick for him from the usual suspects Edmonton or Toronto...
I think Dano was the player the Jets were really hoping LV would take. They set everything up to make him the best player available and LV wouldn't bite and instead GMGM extracted a move to improve his draft position. Getty Toby to waive was to protect the forwards they really wanted to keep, not the ones they ultimately left exposed.
 

StatisticsAddict99

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Feb 24, 2017
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Buff gave the Jets a hometown (Minnesota) discount. Wheeler is another Minnesota guy and will probably do the same for 2 reasons:

The team has ridiculous talent and will be a serious Cup contender for several years. Players want to win.

True North is loyal (almost to a fault) to its players and staff, but that loyalty tends to get repaid: Enström waiving his no-trade clause for the expansion draft, Buff giving them a $500,000 - $$1,000,000 discount, Scheifele's contract, Ehlers' contract, etc. Wheeler extending for $7-7.5 million will be seen as showing the type of old-skool "leadership" that Ladd didn't.

Uh... Don’t know about that 7.6m is about what he was worth when he got it...
 
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The Ugly Truth

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Uh... Don’t know about that 7.6m is about what he was worth when he got it...

No, Byfuglien could have easily gotten $8 million to $8.5 million. The first two playoff rounds (before fatigue set in because he was being overplayed) this year showed exactly why he's worth every penny of that.

If Maurice resists the temptation to overplay him, Buff can be utterly dominant and take over games single-handedly. Not many players in the league can do that.

LA wanted him for the playoffs that year, though they would've been in cap hell if they tried to re-sign him. Edmonton, NY Islanders and others would've gladly paid whatever it took to get Buff.

True North's reputation for loyalty and fair treatment of its players has paid off in many of them (with the exception of Ladd) giving hometown discounts. And the occasional fishing trip may have helped sway Buff as well!

Prior to the success of Vegas this year it's always been felt that to win the Cup you need elite talent. Elite talent is rare and it's even less common for GMs to allow these players to get to the open market, so when they do they command high prices. If Vegas wins the Cup this year every team is going to have to rethink that philosophy. Maybe it is possible to win without expensive, elite players as long as the team has structure and buys in to that structure completely. The jury is still out on Chayka, but I think "Moneypuck" and good coaching is the future.

On a separate note, why is it that casual fans *always* underestimate a player's value? Every time a contract is discussed we see posts saying the player should've received $1 million and two or three years less than they got.
 

StatisticsAddict99

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No, Byfuglien could have easily gotten $8 million to $8.5 million. The first two playoff rounds (before fatigue set in because he was being overplayed) this year showed exactly why he's worth every penny of that.

If Maurice resists the temptation to overplay him, Buff can be utterly dominant and take over games single-handedly. Not many players in the league can do that.

LA wanted him for the playoffs that year, though they would've been in cap hell if they tried to re-sign him. Edmonton, NY Islanders and others would've gladly paid whatever it took to get Buff.

True North's reputation for loyalty and fair treatment of its players has paid off in many of them (with the exception of Ladd) giving hometown discounts. And the occasional fishing trip may have helped sway Buff as well!

Prior to the success of Vegas this year it's always been felt that to win the Cup you need elite talent. Elite talent is rare and it's even less common for GMs to allow these players to get to the open market, so when they do they command high prices. If Vegas wins the Cup this year every team is going to have to rethink that philosophy. Maybe it is possible to win without expensive, elite players as long as the team has structure and buys in to that structure completely. The jury is still out on Chayka, but I think "Moneypuck" and good coaching is the future.

On a separate note, why is it that casual fans *always* underestimate a player's value? Every time a contract is discussed we see posts saying the player should've received $1 million and two or three years less than they got.

At 7.6m that is the 5th highest paid defensemen in the league and no defensemen in the league other than Subban has a salary of over 8m, like I said it’s pretty much what he was worth(maybe even a bit more), yes he’s a top 10(and was) defensemen but that doesn’t mean he needs to be paid extremely high.
 
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The Ugly Truth

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At 7.6m that is the 5th highest paid defensemen in the league and no defensemen in the league other than Subban has a salary of over 8m, like I said it’s pretty much what he was worth(maybe even a bit more), yes he’s a top 10(and was) defensemen but that doesn’t mean he needs to be paid extremely high.

Inflation. It's all about where the cap is the year that you sign and how many other free agents who play the same position are available at the same time. Supply and demand for UFAs.

(team in control) ELC -> RFA -> UFA (player in control)

I think you're going to be shocked over the next two years at how much players that get to free agency are making.

Soon: Doughty, Karlsson, OEL

Now: Tavares, JVR, Kane

Smart teams are either going to have to figure out how to make Moneypuck work or else will create an environment like the Jets that encourages their potential UFAs to sign for a hometown discount before they reach the open market. I'm betting on Moneypuck.

Arizona picking up players like Petan or Josh Ho-Sang and adding to previous deals like Stepan/Raanta + making the playoffs next year might just change how a lot of teams think about the value of high priced free agents, though.
 

Oilpeg

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At 7.6m that is the 5th highest paid defensemen in the league and no defensemen in the league other than Subban has a salary of over 8m, like I said it’s pretty much what he was worth(maybe even a bit more), yes he’s a top 10(and was) defensemen but that doesn’t mean he needs to be paid extremely high.

How many of those top salaried D were signed on the open market as a UFA though? By my count based on cap hit, only four of the top 20 D were signed as a UFA. All the rest were signed as RFAs or resigned by their current team.

7Ryan Sutermin from nsh7.538
13Kevin Shattenkirknyr from wsh6.65
16Keith Yandlefla from nyr6.35
17Mike Greendet from wsh6.00
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Had Buff hit the market, there would be a lineup of over-bidders. $8.5 would not be hard to see at all.
 

surixon

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Jul 12, 2003
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Buff gave the Jets a hometown (Minnesota) discount. Wheeler is another Minnesota guy and will probably do the same for 2 reasons:

The team has ridiculous talent and will be a serious Cup contender for several years. Players want to win.

True North is loyal (almost to a fault) to its players and staff, but that loyalty tends to get repaid: Enström waiving his no-trade clause for the expansion draft, Buff giving them a $500,000 - $$1,000,000 discount, Scheifele's contract, Ehlers' contract, etc. Wheeler extending for $7-7.5 million will be seen as showing the type of old-skool "leadership" that Ladd didn't.

I don't think the Vegas model is easily replicated. They had a unique opportunity to grab solid players who where undervalued by their orgs or at the point right before they became expensive. If you look at the players Vegas will have to resign they all of a sudden won't have many value contracts. Karlsson will get crazy money for one good year for instance

That is the problem with this philosophy, every other team will have to develop this talent in house or try to sign undervalued players in FA. It won't be easy to build such a team. Plus I don't think Vegas riding a crazy high PDO of 105 most of the year is a recipe for long term success.

I do agree with your thoughts on moneypuck. Teams need to be smarter in how and who they pay. The biggest first step would be to stop paying aging players crazy money for past performances. The second would be to lock up your promising kids long term early through their primes. The three year ELC in most instances should give you enough info on the individual player in order to make a projection. More Scheifele deals means being able to afford more good young players. Money puck is the biggest reason I want Morrissey locked up long term. He already is very good but doesn't yet have the counting numbers to demand big bucks. If you can get him locked up long term at 4.8 to 5.25 million you have another bargain contract in a couple of years time.
 

The Ugly Truth

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I don't think the Vegas model is easily replicated. They had a unique opportunity to grab solid players who where undervalued by their orgs or at the point right before they became expensive. If you look at the players Vegas will have to resign they all of a sudden won't have many value contracts. Karlsson will get crazy money for one good year for instance

That is the problem with this philosophy, every other team will have to develop this talent in house or try to sign undervalued players in FA. It won't be easy to build such a team. Plus I don't think Vegas riding a crazy high PDO of 105 most of the year is a recipe for long term success.

I do agree with your thoughts on moneypuck. Teams need to be smarter in how and who they pay. The biggest first step would be to stop paying aging players crazy money for past performances. The second would be to lock up your promising kids long term early through their primes. The three year ELC in most instances should give you enough info on the individual player in order to make a projection. More Scheifele deals means being able to afford more good young players. Money puck is the biggest reason I want Morrissey locked up long term. He already is very good but doesn't yet have the counting numbers to demand big bucks. If you can get him locked up long term at 4.8 to 5.25 million you have another bargain contract in a couple of years time.

To be honest, I am still not sure there was much of a "model" for building Vegas into an instant contender this year other than having a ton of luck with all the selected players having career years and getting Fleury as a starting goalie. Looking back on the moves that McPhee made I think most "experts" would say at the time that he made some really stupid choices if he was hoping to build a team that was competitive from Day 1.

At the time the only good moves I thought he made were with taking advantage of Minnesota + Florida and picking up Fleury, Neal, Schmidt, Pickard, Miller, Eakin and Perron. Some of his selections were bizarre like taking Emelin for free or not taking Manson or Vatanen in return for Theodore. I think anyone who says they think Karlsson would break out like he did this year is flat out lying. Vegas succeded in the regular season because of good goaltending and team structure. They are succeeding in the playoffs because of unbelievable goaltending on their side, structure and inconsistent goaltending from their opponents.

If I was building a team now I would look at these in order of importance:
1) best goalie available + solid back up
2) players coach who can enforce structure
3) "Moneypuck" to identify diamonds in the rough and players getting blacklisted by their teams
4) draft well and internal development
5) lock up promising homegrown players to long-term deals after their ELC
6) avoid overpriced free agents at all cost

Arizona seems to be following that blueprint so far.

Seattle might want to hire Hunter now.

I admit I was completely wrong about Morrissey and thought he was too small to succeed. But this is the New NHL™ and smart, smaller defenceman with good stickwork can compensate for their lack of size. I agree that the Jets should focus on getting him locked up to a team-friendly longer-term contract. I still have my doubts though about small defenceman after seeing Enström repeatedly getting rocked in games.
 
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Say What

Building a Legacy 4/28/96 Never again!!
Jan 18, 2015
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If 2017/18 taught anything, it's clearly that....the 'youth movement' is over. Fortunately for fans of the Winnipeg Jets, TNSE has undoubtedly shown that it doesn't have any interest in weakening the current team; with hopes of duplicating the ascend to the top of the league standings. The current roster was 2nd overall, and were full marks in achieving it.

What do people think a 'better' Bryan Little will cost (not less than $5.2M, plus the assets to acquire). How about a 'better' Mathieu Perreault (not less than $4.1M, in today's NHL). Part of being a good player & great professional, is maintaining team concepts away from the puck; possibly sacrificing personal numbers/points for the betterment of the group (team first mentality). This collection of players get it. They live it.They embrace it. Unnecessarily injecting additional young players, that may or may not score more, whilst being prey to the occasional or routinely made blunder, isn't the next phase in maximizing the talent already present.

My opinion emphatically states, TNSE won't be selling more 'growing pains' to the loyal & dedicated members of this team; as a reward for their unwavering faith in the process, their hard work, and their tireless efforts. 'Growing pains' will eagerly be supplanted by 'growing together' (the next/current phase for this franchise). Like any roster, facets will always be looked at, and considered (systems, structure, roles, deployment, contracts, etc.), in the vein of maintaining continued growth. However, replacing solid, quality, NHL caliber players; with raw, unproven, inexperienced youth, is ultimately going against the original plan set out from the beginning (push from within/over-ripen). This was a concept discussed in TNSE offices long before the NHL or the Feeder Team(s) (AHL/ECHL etc.) had any noteworthy prospects banging down the doors (not to slight any previous/current members of the Organization).

It's my belief that unseating members from the current roster will become increasingly harder as the years pass by. Building a 'foundation', is arguably the hardest part of establishing the 'culture' within the Franchise (setting firm expectations of each other). Having exceptional leaders, mentors, and teachers play a vital role in the overall process, is a key component. Young players/prospects will now need to earn their spot on the roster, against much stiffer competition; meaning they'll need to earn the trust of their teammates, line-mates, coaches and management. It's never easy to 'break in' (enter the NHL) to a tight locker room.

So in moving forward; gaining knowledge, gaining acceptance, and showing one's worth, will rightfully be conducted at the AHL level. That's where TNSE will continue to accept 'some' growing pains. As always, some great young talent (Roslovic, Dano, Petan, Lemieux, Appleton, Vesalainen; among others) will be given every opportunity to become full-time Jets (NHL players). Expecting any more than two, to be impactful (in 2018/19), would be purely unforeseen, IMO. The veterans of this team have earned the right to battle, night in and night out, unimpeded. Time will tell.
 
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surixon

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Jul 12, 2003
48,988
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Winnipeg
If 2017/18 taught anything, it's clearly that....the 'youth movement' is over. Fortunately for fans of the Winnipeg Jets, TNSE has undoubtedly shown that it doesn't have any interest in weakening the current team; with hopes of duplicating the ascend to the top of the league standings. The current roster was 2nd overall, and were full marks in achieving it.

What do people think a 'better' Bryan Little will cost (not less than $5.2M, plus the assets to acquire). How about a 'better' Mathieu Perreault (not less than $4.1M, in today's NHL). Part of being a good player & great professional, is maintaining team concepts away from the puck; possibly sacrificing personal numbers/points for the betterment of the group (team first mentality). This collection of players get it. They live it.They embrace it. Unnecessarily injecting additional young players, that may or may not score more, whilst being prey to the occasional or routinely made blunder, isn't the next phase in maximizing the talent already present.

My opinion emphatically states, TNSE won't be selling more 'growing pains' to the loyal & dedicated members of this team; as a reward for their unwavering faith in the process, their hard work, and their tireless efforts. 'Growing pains' will eagerly be supplanted by 'growing together' (the next/current phase for this franchise). Like any roster, facets will always be looked at, and considered (systems, structure, roles, deployment, contracts, etc.), in the vein of maintaining continued growth. However, replacing solid, quality, NHL caliber players; with raw, unproven, inexperienced youth, is ultimately going against the original plan set out from the beginning (push from within/over-ripen). This was a concept discussed in TNSE offices long before the NHL or the Feeder Team(s) (AHL/ECHL etc.) had any noteworthy prospects banging down the doors (not to slight any previous/current members of the Organization).

It's my belief that unseating members from the current roster will become increasingly harder as the years pass by. Building a 'foundation', is arguably the hardest part of establishing the 'culture' within the Franchise (setting firm expectations of each other). Having exceptional leaders, mentors, and teachers play a vital role in the overall process, is a key component. Young players/prospects will now need to earn their spot on the roster, against much stiffer competition; meaning they'll need to earn the trust of their teammates, line-mates, coaches and management. It's never easy to 'break in' (enter the NHL) to a tight locker room.

So in moving forward; gaining knowledge, gaining acceptance, and showing one's worth, will rightfully be conducted at the AHL level. That's where TNSE will continue to accept 'some' growing pains. As always, some great young talent (Roslovic, Dano, Petan, Lemieux, Appleton, Vesalainen; as forwards) will be given every opportunity to become full-time Jets (NHL players). Expecting any more than two, to be impactful (in 2018/19), would be purely unforeseen, IMO. The veterans of this team have earned the right to battle, night in and night out, unimpeded. Time will tell.

While I agree with the general premise of your post the salary cap will necessitate the moving in of young cheap players as we will not be able to keep older vets that are making big dollars to play depth roles. Moving forward we will not be able to afford a dmen taking up 5.5 million of the cap to play on the third pair or a forward making $4.1 million to play 3rd/4th lines.

I do agree that we are likely only to see 1 to 2 break in on the team in a prominent role at any one time.
 

Say What

Building a Legacy 4/28/96 Never again!!
Jan 18, 2015
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While I agree with the general premise of your post the salary cap will necessitate the moving in of young cheap players as we will not be able to keep older vets that are making big dollars to play depth roles. Moving forward we will not be able to afford a dmen taking up 5.5 million of the cap to play on the third pair or a forward making $4.1 million to play 3rd/4th lines.

I do agree that we are likely only to see 1 to 2 break in on the team in a prominent role at any one time.

That's a fair point. However, the decisions are never as simple as trade Player X for asset value. Some key pieces to the organization may become 'own rentals' for playoff runs. At which time you re-evaluate what's best for both parties. Yes, it comes with risk for both sides.
 

Say What

Building a Legacy 4/28/96 Never again!!
Jan 18, 2015
817
78
Does Chevy look at this gang and see a conference final and 2nd best record in the regular season and keep them together thinking that another year for the young guys is the answer? Or does he see how top heavy our scoring is and a need for more secondary scoring in the bottom 6?

You can make the case to keep the team as is or close to. But guys like Niku, Vesalainen, Appleton and even Petan and Lemieux should be given a chance to crack the club. Vesalainen and Appleton definitely have offense to their games. I think we know how much offense guys like Copp and Tanev bring. Good players at what they do. But limited upside.

Dano and Matthias were never threats to get into the lineup over someone else. Maybe we need a press box of guys that will push to play in the lineup every single week. Constant competition. Graduating a couple of our young guys could provide this. Those Appleton and Vesalainen videos are impressive.

The youth movement is essentially done (regarding the bolded). Yes, any player can push/force their way onto the roster; however, doing so will be increasingly difficult. Now barely a week removed from the 'pressure cooker', these most recent Playoffs again showed just how much effort, skill, luck, and game experience it takes to advance; round after round through that marathon. Being a great, young, up & coming talent throughout the regular season, doesn't guarantee any amount of success in the much more congested, competitive 'second season'.
I don't see TNSE integrating more youth with the hopes of 'that' being the missing ingredient to the ultimate goal. Continued development and dedication from the current roster, with some adjustments to certain areas, and possibly more optimal role assignments for some players; is in my opinion the next step in the process. Sitting here today, I personally don't believe you'd find many within TNSE that feel the players/organization lost to a better team. "Sometimes a 'bitter pill' is required to get better". Time will tell.
 

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