Prospect Info: Who is the most overrated/underrated Jets prospect?

[kittiecarlyle]

My point was if he's not a solid third pairing dman this year... He's not really adding value as a draft selection.

That's really not at all true. So if the top six play very well and he doesn't get a lot of time playing for the Jets this year but has a strong year and he produces as a 4/5 D in the years ahead he's not a draft selection that is adding value?

Again the age thing has over clouded some peoples opinion of him negatively.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Over? Petan and Dano altho not prospects but those are the 2 who have done the least but get talked About the Most.

Under? Judging by this thread... Poolman. Hes nhl ready.. 3rd pairing would be a fine place for him and if that means saving cap by moving 1 of Buff Trouba or Myers... Thats fine.

Spacek is the other. Ton of skill.. Hes almost like what ppl think Dano is... Built similar but... Has more hustle than Dano.

 

[ps241]

Over? Petan and Dano altho not prospects but those are the 2 who have done the least but get talked About the Most.

Under? Judging by this thread... Poolman. Hes nhl ready.. 3rd pairing would be a fine place for him and if that means saving cap by moving 1 of Buff Trouba or Myers... Thats fine.

Spacek is the other. Ton of skill.. Hes almost like what ppl think Dano is... Built similar but... Has more hustle than Dano.

Talked about the most is not the same as overrated. These guys are controversial and spark discussion and debate but for every Petan and Dano fan there appear to be as many if not more detractors.

 

[Whileee]

For those saying Connor is overrated, consider this...

In his final 20 AHL games last season (more than a quarter of the season), he scored 17 goals and 26 points. That would translate to 65 goals and 99 points over a full AHL season. He started last season as a 19 year old.

I think the reason some are rating Petan high relative to Connor is that Petan has been fed a lot of PP time in pre-season, relative to Connor. He's had more than 2.5x as much PP time as Connor, and about 33% of Petan's pre-season icetime has been on the power play, compared to about 12% of Connor's icetime. Connor has had almost as much PK time as PP time. It's easier to look good on the PP than in the PK or at even strength.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

For those saying Connor is overrated, consider this...

In his final 20 AHL games last season (more than a quarter of the season), he scored 17 goals and 26 points. That would translate to 65 goals and 99 points over a full AHL season. He started last season as a 19 year old.

I think the reason some are rating Petan high relative to Connor is that Petan has been fed a lot of PP time in pre-season, relative to Connor. He's had more than 2.5x as much PP time as Connor, and about 33% of Petan's pre-season icetime has been on the power play, compared to about 12% of Connor's icetime. Connor has had almost as much PK time as PP time. It's easier to look good on the PP than in the PK or at even strength.

Just look at the 5v5 shifts. It is everything, on every shift. Petan has been going to the right places and doing the right things. No criticism of Connor. He has been better than last year, more engaged, more involved, less on the perimeter. But Petan has been better.

If we keep both and give them similar usage Connor probably outscores Petan. Overall value would be closer. Connor might win that too. But if we base it on what the 2 have shown in pre-season play it is Petan, easily.

Edit: That is just my eye-test. I have no data to back if up but I thought it was clear enough that no one would argue.

 

[voyageur]

Overrated: Petan. Smallest winger, shies away from contact on the boards, passing is good, but the Jets don't need his half wall PP strength with Perreault and Ehlers being good at it too, and better 5 vs. 5 players.

Dano is also overrated, his physicality is generally behind the play, and his neutral zone skating (conditioning) need improvement.

Underrated: Lipon . Small player who is a sparkplug. A guy who makes his linemates better.

Poolman. Great size and poise for a rookie defenseman. Going to be a force with the Jets as he develops.

 

[Saintb]

Lipon plays with great courage. I am pulling for him.

 

[Grind]

That's really not at all true. So if the top six play very well and he doesn't get a lot of time playing for the Jets this year but has a strong year and he produces as a 4/5 D in the years ahead he's not a draft selection that is adding value?

Again the age thing has over clouded some peoples opinion of him negatively.

???

If he's a top four ever it's damn good value, I already said that. But I don't know why we'd be discussing I'd ny opinions changed on a player about a hypothetical 2 years from now?

 

[Grind]

You realize he was picked in the 5th round right? Doesn't matter how many years you have to wait for a guy picked that late, if they become a dependable NHL player, thats far from a wasted pick.

And you can't just go out & reliably find a dependable UFA to put on your 3rd pairing, especially one having higher upside down the road. How can you compare him to Hendricks or Sgarbossa for instance; not the same position, nowhere near the same caliber of player.

Lastly, his age doesn't bother me. Yes, peak years have often been reached by the time you're 26, but D-man often stay very dependable or even improve well into their 30s

there's two separate points being construed as one(if he becomes a third pairing dman vs if he becomes a third pairing dman and then a fourth ).

1. Yes you can get reliable third pair dmen (depending what you consider reliable) on UFA for a song. Just because we've been completely incapable of it doesn't mean they aren't there (we've let two of them go in the last 2 years - postma and Redmond)


2. How doesn't matter. UFA, draft pick, etc. If it's a player who's playing as a reliable third pairing dmen at 26 next year he's no more valuable then Redmond was when he was signed as a UFA to the avs the other year. Additionally, the avs didn't spend a fifth round pick. Opportunity cost.(please don't misconstrue this, im not saying it's "bad" and sure it's nice to have those guys in the stable, but your not getting additional value. He's not cost controlled for additional years. That's the primary benefit of self drafted players.)

3 . Im not concerned about age in regards to upside either. If he's a third pairing dmen that becomes a four he absolutely is good value. And sure there might be a slight edge if he truly is a late bloomer, but age is an issue only in it's ties to RFA/contract years.

4. Comparison to sgarbossa was accurate, not in their role but in their general availability each year in UFA.

 

[Whileee]

there's two separate points being construed as one(if he becomes a third pairing dman vs if he becomes a third pairing dman and then a fourth ).

1. Yes you can get reliable third pair dmen (depending what you consider reliable) on UFA for a song. Just because we've been completely incapable of it doesn't mean they aren't there (we've let two of them go in the last 2 years - postma and Redmond)


2. How doesn't matter. UFA, draft pick, etc. If it's a player who's playing as a reliable third pairing dmen at 26 next year he's no more valuable then Redmond was when he was signed as a UFA to the avs the other year. Additionally, the avs didn't spend a fifth round pick. Opportunity cost.(please don't misconstrue this, im not saying it's "bad" and sure it's nice to have those guys in the stable, but your not getting additional value. He's not cost controlled for additional years. That's the primary benefit of self drafted players.)

3 . Im not concerned about age in regards to upside either. If he's a third pairing dmen that becomes a four he absolutely is good value. And sure there might be a slight edge if he truly is a late bloomer, but age is an issue only in it's ties to RFA/contract years.

4. Comparison to sgarbossa was accurate, not in their role but in their general availability each year in UFA.

I think there's considerable difference between a 3rd pairing depth player, and someone who is a bona fide candidate for a top-4 (to the point you might consider replacing a top-4 like Myers).

I happen to think Poolman might fit into that category, and is on an ELC so there's the possibility of locking in longer term.

Sure, you can get a Redmond for <$1M, but if you want a player at the level of Kulikov as a UFA, you are paying $4M+. If Poolman can play the same role as Kulikov on an ELC, that is huge value, regardless of age.

It all depends on how good you think Poolman is, and how soon. I am thinking maybe 2nd pairing quality quite soon. The main issue for him will be the Jets depth chart, which won't give him that role any time soon.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Aren't the most overrated & underrated prospect the same person?

Clearly this is Dano.

 

[sipowicz]

Lipon plays with great courage. I am pulling for him.

All the other teams in the league including the teams that go deep into the playoff's have "charlie hustle" guys like Lipon, for some reason the Jets never have, Kane came close.

Some in here seem to be getting a little ahead of themselves on Poolman, give him some games against all NHL rosters to see how he shakes out, my guess he does half a season in the AHL at least.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

???

If he's a top four ever it's damn good value, I already said that. But I don't know why we'd be discussing I'd ny opinions changed on a player about a hypothetical 2 years from now?

???

You stated " Originally Posted by Grind
My point was if he's not a solid third pairing dman this year... He's not really adding value as a draft selection. "

So presume for whatever reason he is not a solid 3rd pairing dman this year, you believe he's not adding value as a draft pick. This takes out what may be and is becoming more and more likely that he has substantial value in the very near future ( if not now ). He's adding real value right now and that is very likely increasing.

That's value for any pick and for a 5th it's tremendous value. It's where he is now AND where he will be.

Confusing position and incorrect imo.

 

[White Out 902]

Overrated is easily Dano for me
Underrated I couldn't say. I'll go with Stanley since he was a wasted 1st round pick and people think he's literally a pylon.

 

[ps241]

Aren't the most overrated & underrated prospect the same person?

Clearly this is Dano.

Agreed

I think Petan and Dano fall into that category. They are polarizing like them or don't like them types.

I look at them both as quality depth pieces on a team that maybe wants to construct a checking 3rd line and throw away glue 4th line. If that is how we are rolling again this year then they will both need to wait their turn for injuries to occur on the top 3 lines.

 

[snowkiddin]

Overrated: I'm gonna say Niku. A lot of the folks on here see him as a gem, but I still see a late round pick.

Underrated: Skyler McKenzie. Speaking of late round picks, I think this guy has some nice potential. Very Gallagher like. Most of the prospects we have had for a while are at least noticed, but not this guy which is why I choose him.

 

[TorJet]

Overrated by the average Jets fan: Tanev (“he’s so fast and plays hard”)

Overrated on this board: Petan - has to produce in the regular season to live up to the HF hype. Unfortunately is limited by physical stature and others that are better in the top 9.

Underrated: Connor. He tore up the A last year terrible tearing up college but a slow start as a 19 yr old in the NHL has people questioning his talent. Two years younger than Petan with a year’s less pro experience and a superior debut year - having heard suggestions that Petan is the superior player means that Connor has become materially underrated. If he somehow ends up in the top 6 for a portion of the year (through injury or strong play) he is a ROTY contender.

 

[Channelcat]

Overrated: I'm gonna say Niku. A lot of the folks on here see him as a gem, but I still see a late round pick.

Underrated: Skyler McKenzie. Speaking of late round picks, I think this guy has some nice potential. Very Gallagher like. Most of the prospects we have had for a while are at least noticed, but not this guy which is why I choose him.

I'll go with that, I think we might have something there. Certainly a steal in the 7th! And he's off to a great start in Portland!

 

[Whileee]

To reiterate, underrated = Poolman.

I don't think many, including me, thought he was as good as he's shown in pre-season. He looks like he's good enough to step seamlessly into the line-up and perform at a high level. It's a big deal for a team that has had too little depth on D.

 

[GNP]

2 underrated Jet's forwards-as follows.

1) Nic Petan - great playmaker, can control the play, and set up goals. His Junior numbers were very high, and that scoring touch does not go away. He just needs some confidence. If I was the coach, I'd play Nic as a 3-rd line center, along with Connor, and Copp, or Perrault. If this kind of line was to connect, we'd have 3 potent scoring lines.

2) Copp - this guy is fairly big, a good skater, and has nice soft hands, as I've seen him score some really nice goals. This guy is underrated, and will come of age.

I think both of these "above" guys are underrated !!!

Overrated as follows : ( below)

1) Dano - I just don't think he's very good at all, other than to run into guys etc. That's why the Hawks got rid of him.

2) Lowry - is a good mucker, with hands of stone, and cannot score unless it's a scramble in front of the net.(rebound etc) Good 4-th line center though, and good with defence. I would replace Lowry with Petan, and have a "high octane" 3-rd line. Lowry to 4-th line Center. Also Lowry is very big and tough, so good guy to have around -"but overrated".

 

[DK59]

To reiterate, underrated = Poolman.

I don't think many, including me, thought he was as good as he's shown in pre-season. He looks like he's good enough to step seamlessly into the line-up and perform at a high level. It's a big deal for a team that has had too little depth on D.

I think I was higher on Poolman than most people here but I have also been pleasantly surprised how well he has adjusted to the pro game. I never agreed with what I observed to be the general consensus on this board that he was a relatively safe prospect that possessed very little upside beyond an average bottom pairing or depth d-man. I thought a lot of people were selling him short because of his advanced age and the unconventional way he has chosen to develop his game. The hardest thing to assess in a prospect is how a player's game will translate to the pro level and the early indications are that his game does translate well and that is great news for the Jets because they really could use this very nice injection of quality depth into their d-corp.