Speculation: Who is the most likely Bust this draft (top 10)

[BinCookin]

Of all the soon to be drafted players ranked in the top 10...
Which is most likely to Bust?

Should we avoid that pick?

Click to read more...

 

[Martinez]

I don’t think that will be the mindset of the front office. We draft at 6, so we will pick the player that we think will become a star, not the safest player because we are scared to screw it up.

 

[lilidk]

Boqvist and Svechnikovs overvalued

 

[Claypool]

Any of them have a chance of busting.

 

[kliq]

With Buffalo's luck it will be Dahlin lol (I don't actually think this).

 

[Ulysses31]

Boqvist because of concussions?

Hughes because too small?

Svechnikov will be a yakapov?

Tkackuk will lack scoring touch and be a 3rd-4th liner.
Just speculating and quite hard to say.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

Boqvist is my best guess.
Hughes I think will be a second or third pairing because of his size, but could still put up decent numbers potentially. So sort of bust or not live up to expectations.

Of the forwards I think zadina is the most likely one to be a bust, in that he wont be a top line winger like svech and tkachuk.

 

[Hen Kolland]

It will sound weird to say, but for me the answer is easily Dahlin. I don't believe you have to completely whiff to be the biggest bust, it's all about expectations and living up to them. I'll put it like this:

Every single player slated to go in the top 10 have people playing the role of devil's advocate, pointing out the holes and deficiencies in a respective player's game. Boqvist's lack of D and concussion history; Bouchard's skating; Dobson's lack of an elite skill set; Hughes' lack of size; Tkachuk's lack of true game breaking skill; the list goes on. It creates dialogue of why a player might not be as good as others hope. That dialogue exists for every consensus top 10 player...except Dahlin. His upside is so high and he is such a lock for #1 that there's no reason for people to debate, or even acknowledge, his negatives. I've read so much about him, and I still can't remember anything people have used as a knock against him. He has risen to this level of being treated as a soon-to-be perennial Norris candidate. The hype is so incredibly high, that it will be so easy for him to be a bust. If he ends up being anything other than a premier number one defenseman, he will have disappointed based on nearly every single expert's opinion.

All that said, and he's still the #1 pick by a longshot.

 

[jkutswings]

While every player has elements to be questioned, this feels like an overall safer top ten than the last several draft classes.

But if I had to pick one guy, I guess it's Boqvist. I still really like him as a player, and I wouldn't mind if Detroit picks him, but the combination of a smaller sample size than most of the other players, and the questions about concussions, seem like the factors that could drop a guy's stock the most.

 

[FMichael]

If a kid has concussion issues prior to entering the NHL - not sure if I'd take that risk drafting him.

 

[ricky0034]

It will sound weird to say, but for me the answer is easily Dahlin. I don't believe you have to completely whiff to be the biggest bust, it's all about expectations and living up to them. I'll put it like this:

Every single player slated to go in the top 10 have people playing the role of devil's advocate, pointing out the holes and deficiencies in a respective player's game. Boqvist's lack of D and concussion history; Bouchard's skating; Dobson's lack of an elite skill set; Hughes' lack of size; Tkachuk's lack of true game breaking skill; the list goes on. It creates dialogue of why a player might not be as good as others hope. That dialogue exists for every consensus top 10 player...except Dahlin. His upside is so high and he is such a lock for #1 that there's no reason for people to debate, or even acknowledge, his negatives. I've read so much about him, and I still can't remember anything people have used as a knock against him. He has risen to this level of being treated as a soon-to-be perennial Norris candidate. The hype is so incredibly high, that it will be so easy for him to be a bust. If he ends up being anything other than a premier number one defenseman, he will have disappointed based on nearly every single expert's opinion.

All that said, and he's still the #1 pick by a longshot.

yeah those are pretty much my thoughts as well,dmen are tougher to project and the hype for him is out of control

does he deserve that hype? probably,but even if he turns out to be "just" a low end top pairing guy he'll be viewed as a massive disappointment



outside of that I guess Boqvist? i'm not too worried about it and i'd still take him because of his ceiling but this top 10 seems like a relatively safe bet in general to be solid NHL players and concussions are no joke

 

[newfy]

Boqvist based on the concussion tuff. Not sure getting injured makes you a bust though. I think if you expect Hughes to be a top pairing guy then hes the best bet. You might get more of a Jake Gardiner as a decent projection for him. Lots of points but barely a top 4 guy because hes too small to defend well. Racks up PP points though and is valuable.

If he figures out the defensive side though he could be a stud, I think he has the most risk though

 

[golffuul]

I think Zadina will fall somewhere around the Ehlers or Timo Meier category and not so much in the MacKinnon, Hischier, or Voracek category. So taking him top 3 would be risky. Boqvist, with his concussions is a tough ask. And Brady Tkachuk, off the strength of one tournament, is stretch for a top 5.

This is a weird draft, because the expectations are massive for anyone who is a first rounder to make an impact either immediately or within 2 years as either a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man. So the bust potential is quite high for just about everyone in the top 20 or so. This is definitely going to be one of those drafts that if you scouted it correctly, and not just pick the best player available, you could get some really great return. I'm thinking Scheifele-esque kind of mentality, since he wasn't really seen as a top 15-20 guy and Winnipeg scouted him correctly and got arguably one of the top 3 players in that draft.

 

[TheMule93]

Boqvist or Hughes. However they both have some of the highest potentials in the draft.

 

[njx9]

I think Hughes has the highest ceiling and lowest floor, so I guess him.

Dahlin (and probably Svechnikov), I think, is a good bet for 'disappointment' (just because of high expectations), but it's hard to imagine him outright busting.

 

[NickH8]

I couldn't tell you, but there will most likely be a bust or two in the top 10. If one of those busts happen to be our picks I can't wait for the hindsight gm's, who will be extra cancerous because a good defenseman will likely go after we pick. A lot of "why did Ken Holland pick X when Y was available?' BS may be in the future.

 

[Frk It]

I couldn't tell you, but there will most likely be a bust or two in the top 10. If one of those busts happen to be our picks I can't wait for the hindsight gm's, who will be extra cancerous because a good defenseman will likely go after we pick. A lot of "why did Ken Holland pick X when Y was available?' BS may be in the future.

If you draft a bust you will get criticized for it... yup, comes with the territory.

Not too worried about it this year, I think top to bottom the top 10 this year has relatively less flags than usual. Should be an easier top 10 to navigate, kind of like the 2015 class.

 

[Ezekial]

Hopefully whoever the Blackhawks pick.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Hopefully whoever the Blackhawks pick.

And Montreal. Honestly I'm fine with everyone busting other than whoever gets picked #6OA

 

[PelagicJoe]

Whoever we pick knowing our luck.

 

[Bench]

If a kid has concussion issues prior to entering the NHL - not sure if I'd take that risk drafting him.

A fair assessment. Concussions have an exponential curve where they get worse with each subsequent one. Having one puts you at more risk for another. And so on. Now obviously you have players who have had concussions and still had mostly full careers, but we don't have to look hard to find the Franzen's of the NHL either.

Crosby has bounced back (after missing significant time) and is still an incredible player, but make no mistake, his career could be over with one more bad hit.

 

[Dotter]

I think everyone in this thread made a good case for why a projected player could bust. I think the safest dman (behind Dahlin) to draft is Dobson. Dahlin won't bust, but could not live up to his massive hype... which in many people's minds will be a bust. But I think if DRWs want to draft safe, they need to pick Dobson. I want Bouchard.

 

[HisNoodliness]

My order of likelihood to outright bust:

1. Boqvist is most likely, but it's purely because of concussions which is a little unfair. He's also a little undersized and has an underdeveloped defensive game so that could keep him from reaching his 1D potential, but I don't think he'll outright bust unless it's because of injuries.

2. Tkachuk: his numbers are genuinely unimpressive to me. I think he'll be a top line winger, but you are projecting his skills and using his brother as a "well this guy had really similar critiques and was immediatley great in the NHL so his little bro should do that too."

3.Hughes: He's a small D that loves to gamble and skate around the offensive zone with the puck. If the team he's drafted by tries to take the risk out of his game, I could see his offense failing to translate. I actually think his defensive game is very good for a player of his size, and is safe to translate. When he's in a good position he closes the gap well, forces his man to the outside etc. On top of that he's the best D-man in the draft at covering his mistakes. If he causes an odd-man break against, he's skating at full speed to backcheck and usually catches his guy.

4.Bouchard: If he's not mobile enough to find good shooting lanes and keep up with other teams' transition, he could struggle. Because his straight-line speed is good and many of the concerns with his skating can be explained by fatigue, I'm not too worried.

Everyone else I think is a very safe bet to be at least second line players. To be completely honest I'm actually with Frk It in that I think everyone in the top 10 is a safe bet to be at least a second liner. IMO the only reason any of the top 10 would outright bust would be injuries or a team developing them very stupidly ("hey offensive D, you're benched if you ever take risks and D is all that matters. Don't you ever leave the point again."). All of them have strengths and weaknesses, but when you consider the full packages, they all look very strong to me. I think their weaknesses would more likely contribute to them ending up as complimentary players than outright busts.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Boqvist because of concussions?

Hughes because too small?

Svechnikov will be a yakapov?

Tkackuk will lack scoring touch and be a 3rd-4th liner.
Just speculating and quite hard to say.

How about ”Svechnikov will be a Svechnikov”

 

[Run the Jewels]

Most likely to bust is Boqvist. He has concussion issues and he's not all that great playing defense. Upside is he could end up being a John Michael Liles type of defenseman. Nothing wrong with that, 800+ games and 370 points. Or he could be a Justin Schultz level player who has one great season mixed in with a bunch of meh.

It's really tough to see him being more than a specialist. That can work, it ultimately depends on the team.