Prospect Info: Who is the Blues #22 Prospect - 2023

[Stupendous Yappi]

Blues Prospects by Forum Ranking
1) Dalibor Dvorsky - 82%
2) Jimmy Snuggerud - 93%
3) Joel Hofer - 39%
4) Zachary Bolduc - 59%
5) Otto Stenberg - 42%
6) Jake Neighbors - 45.5%
7) Zach Dean - 64%
8) Theo Lindstein - 82%
9) Nikita Alexandrov - 39%
10) Michael Buchinger - 60%
11) Juraj Pekarcik - 37%
12) Tyler Tucker - 30%
13) Vadim Zherenko - 46%
14) Leo Loof - 25%
15) Quinton Burns - 36%
16) Matthew Kessel - 39%
17) Simon Robertsson - 41%
18) Aleksanteri Kaskimäki - 34%
19) Arseni Koromyslov - 51%
20) Tanner Dickinson - 32%
21) Marc-Andre Gaudet - 62%

Click to read more...

 

[Blueston]

Stancl. He is far away, but he and Fischer probably my next 2 as both clearly have some projectible skills.

 

[STL fan in MN]

The last of this tier I see is Vorobyov, Stancl, Malmstrom, Fischer, Peterson and Beck. I value them all about equally but will go with Vorobyov as he has some skill that could potentially pop.

 

[joe galiba]

I voted for the guy with the most letters in his name and I hope he makes it so everyone has to type his name over and over

 

[Blueston]

The last of this tier I see is Vorobyov, Stancl, Malmstrom, Fischer, Peterson and Beck. I value them all about equally but will go with Vorobyov as he has some skill that could potentially pop.

I really don’t see it with him. I wouldn’t have him at all in a top 25. Not even sure he would make top 30 over guys who look like career minor leaguers. His statistical profile doesn’t suggest nhl future in the least. His size and background don’t either. 2 years post draft and he isn’t even a good vhl player, let alone a khl player. He flashes a bit of skill at development camp and folks think he has real shot?

 

[stl76]

All these guys are long shots, but I like Fischer's tools and development route. Think he has a legit shot at making the NHL as a bottom pairing dman.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I really don’t see it with him. I wouldn’t have him at all in a top 25. Not even sure he would make top 30 over guys who look like career minor leaguers. His statistical profile doesn’t suggest nhl future in the least. His size and background don’t either. 2 years post draft and he isn’t even a good vhl player, let alone a khl player. He flashes a bit of skill at development camp and folks think he has real shot?

This was my exact argument the last few polls.

But now that we’ve gotten this low, yes, he’s who I value the most. But it’s super slim margins here.

 

[Memento]

Taking a shot in the dark and going with Nikita Susuyev. His offensive skill translates far more than Vorobyov's, and he was considered a third round talent, were it not for him signing long-term in Russia. Honestly, there's a few players I think are potentially projectable to the NHL: Peterson, Stancl, Vorobyov, Fischer, and Beck, but Susuyev has the most potential, even though he's a huge boom-bust prospect.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

When I organized the polls, I was restricted by the maximum number of options you can have. So I organized the prospects this way:
By draft round, older years before most recent.

My thinking was that guys of the same draft pedigree become more valuable as they gain development time.

However, I realize now that the later round players may be exactly the opposite. They were longshots at the time they were drafted, and for most of them the additional development time usually shows that they aren't going to hit the unlikely projections that would land them in the NHL. So a more recent 7th rounder is probably more valuable than an older one.

Anyway, its an interesting dichotomy about how likely players in a given draft round are to hit their marks.

Finally, I was thinking of some of the Blues late round picks who ended up becoming real players:
Tyler Tucker - 2018 7th
Nikko Mikkola - 2015 5th
Sammy Blais - 2014 6th
Jani Hakanpaa - 2010 4th (though too late for us).

In our prospect discussions I really don't remember any of these guys getting touted as much until they were already making a play for a roster spot. Did anyone see Blais amounting to much in the couple years post-draft? Are there any Sammy Blais on the list now?

 

[Blueston]

When I organized the polls, I was restricted by the maximum number of options you can have. So I organized the prospects this way:
By draft round, older years before most recent.

My thinking was that guys of the same draft pedigree become more valuable as they gain development time.

However, I realize now that the later round players may be exactly the opposite. They were longshots at the time they were drafted, and for most of them the additional development time usually shows that they aren't going to hit the unlikely projections that would land them in the NHL. So a more recent 7th rounder is probably more valuable than an older one.

Anyway, its an interesting dichotomy about how likely players in a given draft round are to hit their marks.

Finally, I was thinking of some of the Blues late round picks who ended up becoming real players:
Tyler Tucker - 2018 7th
Nikko Mikkola - 2015 5th
Sammy Blais - 2014 6th
Jani Hakanpaa - 2010 4th (though too late for us).

In our prospect discussions I really don't remember any of these guys getting touted as much until they were already making a play for a roster spot. Did anyone see Blais amounting to much in the couple years post-draft? Are there any Sammy Blais on the list now?

Gaudet, Kessel, Tucker, Fischer, and zherenko are all 5th ot later that I think can be nhl players. Interesting that they (and your list) are weighted towards big d.

 

[STL fan in MN]

When I organized the polls, I was restricted by the maximum number of options you can have. So I organized the prospects this way:
By draft round, older years before most recent.

My thinking was that guys of the same draft pedigree become more valuable as they gain development time.

However, I realize now that the later round players may be exactly the opposite. They were longshots at the time they were drafted, and for most of them the additional development time usually shows that they aren't going to hit the unlikely projections that would land them in the NHL. So a more recent 7th rounder is probably more valuable than an older one.

Anyway, its an interesting dichotomy about how likely players in a given draft round are to hit their marks.

Finally, I was thinking of some of the Blues late round picks who ended up becoming real players:
Tyler Tucker - 2018 7th
Nikko Mikkola - 2015 5th
Sammy Blais - 2014 6th
Jani Hakanpaa - 2010 4th (though too late for us).

In our prospect discussions I really don't remember any of these guys getting touted as much until they were already making a play for a roster spot. Did anyone see Blais amounting to much in the couple years post-draft? Are there any Sammy Blais on the list now?

It’s a fair question. I can give you a solid I don’t know.

I recall really disliking Blais’ game in Jrs and then coming around on him. When he was drafted, Blais was 5’10”. Showed some good skill in the Q but was very timid and avoided contact. I recall preferring Ryan Tesink, who was a similar player at the time. Then Blais grew to 6’2” and became a wrecking ball. Completely revolutionized his game.

Growing 4 inches post draft is super rare but it is worth noting that a lot can happen in a player’s development between ages 18 and 24ish.

 

[stl76]

Haven't been around as long as some, but I don't remember Blais getting much hype until he scored 20 (26) in his first AHL season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

It’s a fair question. I can give you a solid I don’t know.

I recall really disliking Blais’ game in Jrs and then coming around on him. When he was drafted, Blais was 5’10”. Showed some good skill in the Q but was very timid and avoided contact. I recall preferring Ryan Tesink, who was a similar player at the time. Then Blais grew to 6’2” and became a wrecking ball. Completely revolutionized his game.

Growing 4 inches post draft is super rare but it is worth noting that a lot can happen in a player’s development between ages 18 and 24ish.

Sammy Blais could have a Hallmark movie made about his ability to overcome the odds. The way he completely transformed his game is incredible. I wonder who was really responsible for that? Of course Blais himself deserves a hell of a lot of credit, but what coaches and advisers helped him understand the need to do it, and gave him the feedback needed to make it happen?

The minor leagues are littered with guys that had his junior career and never became anything. I love that a guy like that has his name on the Cup under St Louis Blues.

 

[Majorityof1]

When I organized the polls, I was restricted by the maximum number of options you can have. So I organized the prospects this way:
By draft round, older years before most recent.

My thinking was that guys of the same draft pedigree become more valuable as they gain development time.

However, I realize now that the later round players may be exactly the opposite. They were longshots at the time they were drafted, and for most of them the additional development time usually shows that they aren't going to hit the unlikely projections that would land them in the NHL. So a more recent 7th rounder is probably more valuable than an older one.

Anyway, its an interesting dichotomy about how likely players in a given draft round are to hit their marks.

Finally, I was thinking of some of the Blues late round picks who ended up becoming real players:
Tyler Tucker - 2018 7th
Nikko Mikkola - 2015 5th
Sammy Blais - 2014 6th
Jani Hakanpaa - 2010 4th (though too late for us).

In our prospect discussions I really don't remember any of these guys getting touted as much until they were already making a play for a roster spot. Did anyone see Blais amounting to much in the couple years post-draft? Are there any Sammy Blais on the list now?

I was on the Blais train earlier than almost anyone. I remember being the only one to vote for him in polls for like 10 polls straight. I didn't have him top 5 or anything, but top 8ish. I went back and searched for posts by me with where I wrote his name. The earliest one only goes back to 2018. So someone hyping him prior to that, I don't think anyone did.

 

[Celtic Note]

This was my exact argument the last few polls.

But now that we’ve gotten this low, yes, he’s who I value the most. But it’s super slim margins here.

I am in the same boat.

My rationale being that I believe people from this tier will need to not quite “strike lightning” to make any meaningful contribution, but it’s not far off either. Vorobynov is the only one to date that showed some possibly of having some diamond in the coal potential. It may be misguided. The sample size (training camp) and the environment might not be right, but it’s more than I see from the rest of the tier so far.

…but we are really talking about guys I don’t expect to be contributors. I am hopeful they surpass expections though. But, at this point I wouldn’t even wager $5 that these rankings will be anywhere close to right in 5 years when we can apply some hindsight. I also think that by mid-year my rankings could change fairly dramatically.

 

[Celtic Note]

When I organized the polls, I was restricted by the maximum number of options you can have. So I organized the prospects this way:
By draft round, older years before most recent.

My thinking was that guys of the same draft pedigree become more valuable as they gain development time.

However, I realize now that the later round players may be exactly the opposite. They were longshots at the time they were drafted, and for most of them the additional development time usually shows that they aren't going to hit the unlikely projections that would land them in the NHL. So a more recent 7th rounder is probably more valuable than an older one.

Anyway, its an interesting dichotomy about how likely players in a given draft round are to hit their marks.

Finally, I was thinking of some of the Blues late round picks who ended up becoming real players:
Tyler Tucker - 2018 7th
Nikko Mikkola - 2015 5th
Sammy Blais - 2014 6th
Jani Hakanpaa - 2010 4th (though too late for us).

In our prospect discussions I really don't remember any of these guys getting touted as much until they were already making a play for a roster spot. Did anyone see Blais amounting to much in the couple years post-draft? Are there any Sammy Blais on the list now?

It’s interesting how you perceive the recency and draft position. It seems most accurate in the post 4th round picks. The 3rd round seems to be a cutoff both in terms of community assessment, but also success rate of becoming an NHLer.

 

[BleedBlueForever]

Vorobyov, he impressed at camp