Prospect Info: Who is the Blues #10 Prospect - 2023

[Stupendous Yappi]

Blues Prospects by Forum Ranking
1) Dalibor Dvorsky - 82%
2) Jimmy Snuggerud - 93%
3) Joel Hofer - 39%
4) Zachary Bolduc - 59%
5) Otto Stenberg - 42%
6) Jake Neighbors - 45.5%
7) Zach Dean - 64%
8) Theo Lindstein - 82%
9) Nikita Alexandrov - 39%

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[Linkens Mastery]

Buchinger again

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I have a half-baked idea about rating prospect pools generally. It would be interesting to look back at historical data and place a number for each year for how many of a team's prospects became legit NHL players. You could set a definition (and I'm open-minded about this):
Number of games played (x=20?) or maybe there are two numbers, one for a minimum number of games played and one for the equivalent of 1 full-time starter season.

How many guys in the Blues' current group will ultimately become players who play at LEAST one full NHL season? I think its more than 10, maybe several higher. I don't have a good sense for what a common number is for a team's pool, but it wouldn't be really hard to look back at data from 20 years ago and counting.

I'm just impressed by the depth of the current pool.

 

[ToastedRavioli]

How many guys in the Blues' current group will ultimately become players who play at LEAST one full NHL season? I think its more than 10, maybe several higher. I don't have a good sense for what a common number is for a team's pool, but it wouldn't be really hard to look back at data from 20 years ago and counting.

I think our floor is probably around 10. Tucker, Alexandrov, Neighbours, and Hofer all seem like locks. We have six other first rounders. It's actually pretty rare for first rounders to not play at least around a season worth of games. The 2014, 2015, and 2016 first rounds all produced 26 players each who played over 80 games (87%). This would give the Blues a 43% chance that all of our six first rounders (excluded Neighbours as I view him as a lock already) reach that mark. However, I think our pool is deep enough where we will have a handful of players from the rest of the pool make it, covering for any firsts that miss and getting us to 10+. I think this pool most likely finishes with 10-14, which seems like an insanely good number. It would be interesting to look at some of our previous pools and see what our turnouts were.

 

[542365]

This was the easiest choice so far for me. Buchinger.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Buchinger again. He has top-4 upside. Definitely the best offensive d-man prospect.

 

[Robb_K]

I had to go with Buchinger again. There's no one left to challenge him.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think we have determined a big tier in our prospect pool….

 

[Blueston]

Burns. has legit top 4 upside. I just don’t see as much upside in Buchinger that many of y‘all do. He skates well but not sure how much beyond that.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I didn't realize that Burns was the leading point producer of the dmen on his junior team, and Kingston really struggle to score last season.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Burns. has legit top 4 upside. I just don’t see as much upside in Buchinger that many of y‘all do. He skates well but not sure how much beyond that.

I like Burns but kind of like Loof…maybe would’ve helped if I saw him in prospect camp. Buchinger shined this year and last year especially.

 

[Blueston]

I like Burns but kind of like Loof…maybe would’ve helped if I saw him in prospect camp. Buchinger shined this year and last year especially.

Buchinger shined in camp bc it’s wide open and spotlights what we does well (skating and puck handling). Physical play and defensive positioning aren’t really put under microscope in that context. guy like Buchinger is always gonna shine in camp like that.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I didn't realize that Burns was the leading point producer on his junior team, and Kingston really struggle to score last season.

You mean among defensemen? Because if you include forwards, Burns was 8th in scoring for Kingston last season.

I like Burns alright but think Buchinger has a chance to be more of an impact player. Blueston is right in that prospect camp is set up to really display Buchinger’s strengths but he was also good in the OHL.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Buchinger leads the OHL in scoring among d-men this season. He was 4th last season and 2 of the guys above him are going pro. Ty Nelson was right there with him. And honestly, I could see those two battling for one of the final spots on Canada’s WJC team.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You mean among defensemen? Because if you include forwards, Burns was 8th in scoring for Kingston last season.

I like Burns alright but think Buchinger has a chance to be more of an impact player. Blueston is right in that prospect camp is set up to really display Buchinger’s strengths but he was also good in the OHL.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Buchinger leads the OHL in scoring among d-men this season. He was 4th last season and 3 of the guys above him are going pro. Ty Nelson was right there with him. And honestly, I could see those two battling for one of the final spots on Canada’s WJC team.

Yes, meant to include that qualifer, but must've forgot to add it.

And yeah, Buchinger is the one with true, genuine, offensive upside.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Went Buchinger, it's awesome he's "only" 10th. That means im legitimately excited about no less than 10 prospects the Blues have in their system. Its been 15-20 years since i've said that. Hell yes.

 

[Reality Czech]

Buchinger shined in camp bc it’s wide open and spotlights what we does well (skating and puck handling). Physical play and defensive positioning aren’t really put under microscope in that context. guy like Buchinger is always gonna dine in camp like that.

That's a fair point. The prospect camp seems a lot closer to an all-star game than actual in-season NHL competition, so makes sense it would favor the guys whose strength is offense. It's really tough to know who will be able to cut it defensively at the NHL level until they actually have a chance to prove it at the pro level.

Similar to the discussions we had on Alexandrov, I wonder if Tucker is in a similar position. He may have a low ceiling, but he seems like a good bet to be a solid 3rd pair guy at least. Seems like he's already way ahead of projections considering he already has NHL games as a 7th rounder. I guess time will tell if Tucker, or guys like Loof, Buchinger, Burns, and even Perunovich, Lindstein can adapt to the NHL game on the defensive side.