Which Teams Would Fold First?

[Weary]

Maybe you should do some research before you post such things. Link

Sellout is 19,500

Hmmm..that link shows attendance at 22,000+ during the Cup finals. How is 19,500 a sell-out? The link you provided makes it look like doc5hole was correct.

 

[MikeS]

I don't see any franchises folding, but relocation of one or two likely. Portland, Oregon seems ready, and there have been articles in the paper about what would happen to the US division of the Western Hockey League where the Portland Winterhawks are a fixture.

Cities that didn't live through the heartbreak of this non-season would likely embrace a relocating team....

As far as Florida having two teams, the cities are 4 hours apart and totally different markets, not like two in Los Angeles area. I think they can survive. There are enough northern transplants that can't live without hockey. I used to be one of them!

 

[Hockeyfan02]

Hmmm..that link shows attendance at 22,000+ during the Cup finals. How is 19,500 a sell-out? The link you provided makes it look like doc5hole was correct.

19,500 is the number of seats in the arena. SRO tickets were sold later in the playoffs to go with the increasing demand, which is why they started to have 21-22,000 later in the playoffs. I honestly have no idea how they fit 22,000 in to that arena, but they did.

 

[Hockeyfan02]

What real estate boom in downtown?

I don't think it's necessarily a boom like Rwilson puts it, but there have been some new apartment complexes going up near the downtown area. I know of one complex going up near a family friend's restaurant which is a few minutes from the arena. Trump is going to be building an expensive apartment building in the area some time in the near future. I don't know if anything else will be going up around the new Trump apartments when they are being built.

 

[rwilson99]

i dont think any team is that dire of straights. for every arguement you make for a team being weak, someone with knowledge of that team can give you 5 why they are strong. ive always wondered if florida should have 2 teams - on a philisophical angle, not to pick on either team. same arguement could go for CA i suppose. i dont want the ducks to go anywhere, but i wouldnt mind a name change (i know, its a beat up horse already). i wouldnt be surprised to see in the end a team or two not making it even with the new cba - but i bet its a team or two we wouldnt expect. you know the league would just move them - so its an issue that will never truly be settled. always fun to speculate i suppose.

The same argument can be made for Ontario.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Hmmm..that link shows attendance at 22,000+ during the Cup finals. How is 19,500 a sell-out? The link you provided makes it look like doc5hole was correct.

Standing room only, for one thing. Those tickets, BTW, went for $150 each for the conference finals and $200 in the finals and sold out in less than 5 minutes or so for each game.

Also, there are a huge number of suites which can hold more people than the number of chairs (they circle the arena on 2 levels). There is the XO club which also houses far more bodies that the number of actual seats.

Be that as it may, attendance for games 2 and 5 of the first round was 19,982 and 20,927, respectively. The notion we did not sell out until the Conference Finals is simply incorrect.

I know it is a bitter pill to swallow for some, but the Lightning have very good attendance. We are ranked 12th in the league right now for regular season attendance (wow, better than lots of teams where it snows!! and three from Canada ), which I would think would be more of a guideline than playoff attendance.

1 Montreal
2 Detroit
3 Toronto
4 Philadelphia
5 Vancouver
6 St. Louis
7 Minnesota
8 Dallas
9 NY Rangers
10 Colorado
11 Los Angeles
12 Tampa Bay
13 Ottawa
14 Edmonton
15 Columbus
16 Calgary
17 Florida
18 San Jose
19 Phoenix
20 Buffalo
21 Atlanta
22 Boston
23 Anaheim
24 New Jersey
25 Washington
26 NY Islanders
27 Chicago
28 Nashville
29 Carolina
30 Pittsburgh

Our total playoff attendance was 273,196, for an average of 21,015. How many teams averaged better? Anyone know?

In all seriousness, this thread is supposedly about which teams will fold, not which teams some fans hope will be contracted. Ranking 12th in the league in regular season attendance, which has been pointed out numerous times has continued to increase even through the bad, bad years, and having one of the most stable, wealthiest owners around, would be a strong indication that the team will not "fold."

 

[rwilson99]

I don't think it's necessarily a boom like Rwilson puts it, but there have been some new apartment complexes going up near the downtown area. I know of one complex going up near a family friend's restaurant which is a few minutes from the arena. Trump is going to be building an expensive apartment building in the area some time in the near future. I don't know if anything else will be going up around the new Trump apartments when they are being built.

It's not apartments. It's condos, and the first projects are going up in the Channelside District.

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t9048.html

 

[rwilson99]

Our total playoff attendance was 273,196, for an average of 21,015. How many teams averaged better? Anyone know?

The attendence arguement against the Lightning is the weakest in the history of sports.

The team holds the record for 9 of the 10 largest regular season games of all time.
(#1 was held in a football stadium)

The team also has the highest single playoff game (1996) and playoff series attendence (SCF 2004) in the history of the league.

 

[Ismellofhockey]

Maybe those figures are bloated maybe they aren't, I know that sometimes the Sens would announce 17000 people and you'd look around the arena and see a lot of empty and wonder if that number was right.

I only get to see TB games against Montreal and Ottawa and I swear that they announce 14000 sometimes and it looks like there are maybe 7000-9000 people. Maybe it's different against teams TB has a bigger rivalry with, maybe season ticket holders take nights off when Ottawa and Montreal come to play but it certainly looks like TB inflates their numbers.
Not doubting TB's ability to draw fans, they've done so enough in the past, just doubting the actual average they announce.

 

[Hasbro]

I don't see any franchises folding, but relocation of one or two likely. Portland, Oregon seems ready, and there have been articles in the paper about what would happen to the US division of the Western Hockey League where the Portland Winterhawks are a fixture.

I don't think that would necissarily be the case. When we got the Avs there were predictions about how it would ruin college hockey here, ten years later our programs have done nothing, but benifit from their presence. If it were a minor league team the probl;em would be more pronounced.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I know it is a bitter pill to swallow for some, but the Lightning have very good attendance. We are ranked 12th in the league right now for regular season attendance (wow, better than lots of teams where it snows!! and three from Canada ), which I would think would be more of a guideline than playoff attendance.

I don't like attendance figures cause it all depends on how big your building is...Edmonton will never be number 1 because we can only hold 17,100 people (3rd lowest in the league in front of Pittsburgh and NY Islanders)

Montreal will always be number 1 because they can hold 21,500 fans

I think we should look at the number of sell-outs during the season

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Maybe those figures are bloated maybe they aren't, I know that sometimes the Sens would announce 17000 people and you'd look around the arena and see a lot of empty and wonder if that number was right.

Well, take it from someone who was there for every single playoff game -- those figures aren't bloated. You could hardly move in the concourse between periods.

As for regular season, I'm sure the Lightning, like probably every other team, goes by tickets sold. There are always no-shows, but I doubt many teams care about that as long as the tickets are paid for. (There may have possibly been days when we had only 9,000 people in the stands, but that was years ago.)

 

[missK]

Maybe those figures are bloated maybe they aren't, I know that sometimes the Sens would announce 17000 people and you'd look around the arena and see a lot of empty and wonder if that number was right.

I only get to see TB games against Montreal and Ottawa and I swear that they announce 14000 sometimes and it looks like there are maybe 7000-9000 people. Maybe it's different against teams TB has a bigger rivalry with, maybe season ticket holders take nights off when Ottawa and Montreal come to play but it certainly looks like TB inflates their numbers.
Not doubting TB's ability to draw fans, they've done so enough in the past, just doubting the actual average they announce.

So you base your opinion on 4 whole games per season? That's fair The Devils draw less fans than the Lightning do per game and per season and have not at times sold out the playoffs until the Conference Finals so I expect you think they should be contracted too? That's why using attendance and sellout numbers to base your opinion of who is in danger of being contracted or folding doesn't mean squat.

 

[Hockeyfan02]

It's not apartments. It's condos, and the first projects are going up in the Channelside District.

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t9048.html

I don't follow the area's real estate developments that closely so it's probably an easy mistake for me to make.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

The Lighting failed to sell out a playoff game until the Conf. final, then they drew 30K to their celebration. Maybe they should be on this list, too.

OK, the first part of your statement has been proven to be inaccurate.

But could you expound on exactly how the number of people who attended a celebration impacts on a team folding? I'd really like to know the logic behind using that as a reason a team is in danger of going out of business.

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Hmmm..that link shows attendance at 22,000+ during the Cup finals. How is 19,500 a sell-out? The link you provided makes it look like doc5hole was correct.

Also, as an addendum: keep in mind that hockey capacity is considered 19,500. That is not to be confused with *building* capacity, which is different for different events. There's room for bodies in areas that aren't normally available for hockey games, and those areas were packed like sardine cans during the playoffs.

 

[PDO]

I'll never understand the hate for the Bolts - exciting team to watch that was supported better than many teams in the league.

If I had to pick SIX teams to say goodbye too..

Anahiem, Dallas, Carolina, Nashville, Washington, Buffalo

Anahiem and Buffalo have too many teams geographically close to each other and have faced money problems. Dallas, Nashville and Carolina simply don't care and Washington is a horrible sports city excluding the Red Skins.

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

Standing room only, for one thing. Those tickets, BTW, went for $150 each for the conference finals and $200 in the finals and sold out in less than 5 minutes or so for each game.

Also, there are a huge number of suites which can hold more people than the number of chairs (they circle the arena on 2 levels). There is the XO club which also houses far more bodies that the number of actual seats.

Be that as it may, attendance for games 2 and 5 of the first round was 19,982 and 20,927, respectively. The notion we did not sell out until the Conference Finals is simply incorrect.

I know it is a bitter pill to swallow for some, but the Lightning have very good attendance. We are ranked 12th in the league right now for regular season attendance (wow, better than lots of teams where it snows!! and three from Canada ), which I would think would be more of a guideline than playoff attendance.

Okay, I am a fan of the Lightning, primarily because I lived in Tampa and knew the coaches and a few of the players. I will also say that Tampa is pretty safe for the time being, but I will say that a realist would acknowledge the facts that face the Lightning. The Lightning are NOT the first pick in town for spending money on and corporate support is close to nill (way behind Bucs football, Yankees baseball, golf, etc.). The local economy is not strong and will not see an increase in corporate support any time soon either. Florida just doesn't have the economy to sustain a long term competitive NHL team (under the old system) and allow for the salary structure needed to compete with the big spenders.

I'll also speak on my personal experience in Tampa and with going to a hockey game. I NEVER had a problem getting tickets to any game in Tampa, so when someone says that they had great support, that just ain't true. Great support makes tickets scarce and that was never the case in Tampa, even during the past playoffs. When you can walk up to the ticket office 20 minutes before a game and have your pick of sections you would like to sit in that isn't as good as you like. And that is without bringing in the multiple promotions they had going on to get butts in seats, which even ran durng the playoffs. I really like Tampa and the Bolts organization, but I also recognize when a team is a second class citizen in their own town and never will be anything but that, no matter how much they win. I hope they get an economic system that will make it possible for a team to be competitive long term in bay area, but at this point I think it is a 50/50 proposition and puts Tampa near the top third for teams not making it if push comes to shove. I wouldn't be concerned for the time being, but as soon as another series of lean years comes along it could be sketchy.

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

I'll never understand the hate for the Bolts - exciting team to watch that was supported better than many teams in the league.

If I had to pick SIX teams to say goodbye too..

Anahiem, Dallas, Carolina, Nashville, Washington, Buffalo

Anahiem and Buffalo have too many teams geographically close to each other and have faced money problems. Dallas, Nashville and Carolina simply don't care and Washington is a horrible sports city excluding the Red Skins.

Dallas? WTF? You wouldn't be targeting them because they have traditionally taken the Oilers out would you? You are aware that the Stars have outdrawn the Oilers consisently since their arrival in Dallas? Why would Dallas be earmarked for contraction?

 

[Boltsfan2029]

Great support makes tickets scarce and that was never the case in Tampa, even during the past playoffs. When you can walk up to the ticket office 20 minutes before a game and have your pick of sections you would like to sit in that isn't as good as you like.

Forgive me, but it's clear you used to live in Tampa and were not here for the playoffs this year. They had people camping out for 3 days at a time to buy the last 200 tickets, which went on sale at 9:00 a.m. on game days and were already assigned to buyers days before the games (the first in line in the campout extravaganza were given ID bracelets and those folks got the tickets). At least for the conference finals and finals the tickets were gone before game day. Games 1 and 2 of the finals basically sold out within approximately 30 minutes after the end of game 7 against the Flyers.

I tried to get my boss tickets on game days in the finals, for example, and the only way to get there 20 minutes before gametime and get your pick of sections was to visit every scalper around the arena.

You are correct that hockey won't ever be the #1 sport here, but I can assure you we are a much bigger draw than the Tampa Yankees, the Storm and the Devil Rays. We don't look to be the *most* successful -- we are successful enough for hockey to last here, and our ownership is more than successful enough to keep the team competitive should it desire to do so.

Perhaps I'm just misunderstanding the thread, which I thought was which teams are in imminent danger of folding. If that's what this was supposed to be about, then the Bolts do not qualify.

And that is without bringing in the multiple promotions they had going on to get butts in seats, which even ran durng the playoffs.

Could you enlighten me on this? I honestly don't recall any ticket promotions during the playoffs...

 

[nomorekids]

Dallas? WTF? You wouldn't be targeting them because they have traditionally taken the Oilers out would you? You are aware that the Stars have outdrawn the Oilers consisently since their arrival in Dallas? Why would Dallas be earmarked for contraction?

he also said that nashville and carolina "don't care." apparently he didn't see these teams in the playoffs, so i'm guessing he's going on cliches and knowledge gleaned from NHL 2005.

 

[katodelder]

Hopefully no team gets contracted and relocation happens only if absolutely necessary.

If I had guess which six teams Eklund is referring to (that would threaten the PA by jointly announcing they would fold should the lockout extend into 05-06):

1) Pittsburgh
2) Anaheim
3) Edmonton: have already came right out in the media and threatened to fold if they don't like the new economic system
4) Florida
5) Nashville
6) Columbus

other possibilities
7) Atlanta
8) Carolina
9) Calgary
10) Phoenix
11) Ottawa
12) Buffalo

 

[Hockeyfan02]

Okay, I am a fan of the Lightning, primarily because I lived in Tampa and knew the coaches and a few of the players. I will also say that Tampa is pretty safe for the time being, but I will say that a realist would acknowledge the facts that face the Lightning. The Lightning are NOT the first pick in town for spending money on and corporate support is close to nill (way behind Bucs football, Yankees baseball, golf, etc.). The local economy is not strong and will not see an increase in corporate support any time soon either. Florida just doesn't have the economy to sustain a long term competitive NHL team (under the old system) and allow for the salary structure needed to compete with the big spenders.

I'll also speak on my personal experience in Tampa and with going to a hockey game. I NEVER had a problem getting tickets to any game in Tampa, so when someone says that they had great support, that just ain't true. Great support makes tickets scarce and that was never the case in Tampa, even during the past playoffs. When you can walk up to the ticket office 20 minutes before a game and have your pick of sections you would like to sit in that isn't as good as you like. And that is without bringing in the multiple promotions they had going on to get butts in seats, which even ran durng the playoffs. I really like Tampa and the Bolts organization, but I also recognize when a team is a second class citizen in their own town and never will be anything but that, no matter how much they win. I hope they get an economic system that will make it possible for a team to be competitive long term in bay area, but at this point I think it is a 50/50 proposition and puts Tampa near the top third for teams not making it if push comes to shove. I wouldn't be concerned for the time being, but as soon as another series of lean years comes along it could be sketchy.

I agree with them being 2nd behind the Bucs, that will probably never change unless the Bucs really tank like they did in the 70s-80s when, like the Lightning in the late 90s, were an easy ticket in town. My dad is from Michigan and a big Lions fan and until the last 4 or 5 years it was pretty easy to score a ticket to a Lions-Bucs game. I dont think they are behind the Yankees spring training in corporate sponsorship. And I do think that had there been a season corporate sponsors would have increased spending in a team that is the best in it's sport. The worst thing to happen to this franchise is a work stoppage after all the momentum they gained with a cup win over the summer. People stopped calling in to sports radio shows to ask about the Bucs 2nd string TE in mini camp to talk about the Lightning during their playoff run. Fans will come back here since its a winner now, but this town was Lightning crazy last spring and they most likely would built on that momentum with a sold out arena almost every night. I'm not sure if that will happen, but I do expect the building to have around the same attendance it did during the 03-04 season.

The question is: when did you live in Tampa and were you here during the playoffs (where the attendance first came in to question)? In the bad years, it was pretty damn easy to get a ticket. During the conference finals and finals, it was pretty hard to find a ticket (had a guy at work offer me $1,000 on the day of game 7 because he couldn't find a ticket on line or from ticket brokers). The only promotions running during the playoffs were the 200 $8 seats (which has me finding your quote about promotions running during the playoffs false and doubting your credability in talking about the current state of the Lightning). Let's face it, Tampa is and always will be a bandwagon town. During the Bucs lean years, there were numerous opposing fans in old Tampa Stadium rooting on the Packers, Vikings, etc. Today? There aren't very many. DRays are in last place and the bandwagons would rather come out and support the Yankees/Red Sox instead of the local team. During the Lightning lean years, the Flyer fans would have the mjaority in the arena. In the conference finals, there were about 100-200. I think Tampa is a lot safer than you think. The other team in Florida would be in much more trouble if contraction were to come about, but I think the lockout will end with a much better financial system that benefits the Lightning before there is serious talk of contraction.

 

[McDonald19]

Hopefully no team gets contracted and relocation happens only if absolutely necessary.

If I had guess which six teams Eklund is referring to (that would threaten the PA by jointly announcing they would fold should the lockout extend into 05-06):


2) Anaheim

If Disney still owned them yeah, but why would the Orange County Billionaire buy a team and fold them a couple months later?

 

[katodelder]

If Disney still owned them yeah, but why would the Orange County Billionaire buy a team and fold them a couple months later?

Good point. I edited my list after realising Karmanos probably wouldn't threaten contraction either.

I replaced Carolina with Edmonton after remembering their threat through the media a couple of months back.

I would replace as well

perhaps the six mystery teams are

1) Pittsburgh
2) Edmonton
3) Florida
4) Nashville
5) columbus
6) Calgary

???