Speculation: Which players are gone next year?

[Boom Boom Apathy]

With Dundon saying that the team needs a major shake-up and with his comments about moving players in trades, which players from the "full time roster" do you think will be moved next year? I'm excluding UFAs to be in this. You can vote for more than one.

Aho
Teravainen
Williams
Skinner
Staal
Lindholm (RFA)
Hanifin (RFA)
Rask
Faulk
McGinn
Slavin
Pesce
TVR (RFA)
PDG (RFA)
Fleury
Nordstrom (RFA)
Dhalbeck (RFA)
Kruger
Darling

Click to read more...

 

[Unsustainable]

Dundon said that Aho was the only one safe.

 

[geehaad]

Dundon said that Aho was the only one safe.

Kiss of death, right there.

 

[Unsustainable]

Kiss of death, right there.

“Noooooooooooooo”

— Lord Vader

 

[A Star is Burns]

Tried to think about it, but I don't have confidence in most of the picks I was making. Not sure we have enough info yet.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

We HAVE to trade Aho.

 

[Novacane]

I feel like someone "big" has to be moved. I mean, how can you not after 9 years of no playoffs? I think Darling stays in the organization, much to my dismay. I chose Hanifin as the "big" piece, but I'm comfortable with feeling like it could be Skinner or Faulk in addition to Lindholm. Hopefully they go outside the organization for the new GM to remove any emotion from the decision making

 

[Chan790]

I don't think it matters if we don't fire Peters. I know we're going to make more moves, but I feel like we only need to make two...buying out Darling and kicking Bill Peters to the curb.

My fear is that we do too much more than that, like trading our youth for someone like ROR, who I am skeptical outperforms Staal by much here. (Being that I think the problem here is Peters' coaching, philosophy and systems...not player talent.)

 

[Brock Anton]

I think Lindholm is the 'big' piece that's not here next year. I have no idea how or for what, I just don't see him here for some reason. Most think it's going to be a defenseman who goes, but I think it's going to be a forward (either Lindholm or Skinner being most likely IMO).

Other than him, the obvious ones like Nordstrom, Dahlbeck, Kruger etc. won't be back.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Confident Will Return
Aho - Obvious.
Teravainen – Strong performance to salary ratio.
Slavin - Obvious.
Pesce - Don't see a trade out there that would make it worth it to deal him.
McGinn – “Toughness.” Seriously, I don’t think he’s worth enough in a trade to justify a move, particularly at his salary.
Williams – He didn’t sign to get moved after one season.
Staal – I imagine he’s probably getting tired of the losing, but given his value to the team and then age and term for suitors, I think he’ll be back.

Lean Will Return
Rask – A swap for a comparable forward would be nice, but the shoulder injury combined with skating issues makes him a hard move.
Faulk – If he was a player of a different type, I could see him going. Offensive RHDs aren’t plentiful, however.
Skinner – The same goes for Skinner. Where do they get those goals from? I could see a trade at the deadline if the team is out of it.
Hanifin – Unless he asks for huge money, I think he’ll be back.
Fleury – I’m not sure he has the value to be a centerpiece for a good forward.

Lean Won't Return
van Riemsdyk – With McKeown in the system, TvR getting close to UFA age and the need for some additional punch on the blueline. I can see the Canes looking to avoid making a decent commitment to him.
Lindholm – 17-18 was disappointing relative to what appeared to be a breakout 2nd half in 16-17. He’s a useful player for the team, but the raise he’s in line for lands him here.
Darling - I just don't see the justification in bringing him back. Managerial hubris may prevent the organization from moving on, though.

Confident Won't Return
Dahlbeck – More versatility is needed from that slot. He ends up not being qualified.
Di Giuseppe – He was okay down the stretch, but the body of work results in him not being qualified.
Kruger – Negative value. Cheap buyout.
Nordstrom – He’s a solid 4th liner, but he can’t produce away from Staal. He ends up not being qualified.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

My “big” one is Skinner. I have no doubt wherever he goes he will score 40 that next year, but this year he took “I don’t need linemates” to the next level. And apparently no one ever told him that giant windup slapshot while you’re entering the zone doesn’t work. (Did he score on it once this year?)

The man can’t make a pass to the tape, he can’t receive a pass on the tape. He’s one of our worst players through the neutral zone, and even if he’s good one-on-one he uses that stupid slapper so much he never shows it. He lost “it” last year, and with the way he plays I don’t think it’s new linemates that help him find it. He’s always been streaky, both game by game and season by season, but I get the sense that if someone is going as a “culture change” move, it’s the guy that hasn’t made the playoffs in his 8 seasons.

 

[My Special Purpose]

At what point do we pin some of the blame for Skinner's failures on coaching and management? There's simply *got* to be a way to get 35-30-65 out of his skillset fairly regularly. And for him to be basically a non-factor on the power play is bewildering. A guy like Skinner should compete for the league lead in PPGs every season.

To answer the question, here are the people I most want to see continue their careers elsewhere (in order of pure hatred):

1. Scott Darling
2. Joakim Nordstrom
3. Lee Stempniak
4. Elias Lindholm
5. Derek Ryan

 

[Lempo]

Confident Will Return
Teravainen – Strong performance to salary ratio.

Only one year left with $2.86M though, allowed to sign extension July 1st this summer. Could the performance to salary ratio be a tempting selling point in a potential off-season trade for a big center piece coming the other way? His trade value is high now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I put them into these buckets:

Will be shocked if they are moved: Aho, Slavin, Williams
Will be surprised if they are moved: TT, Staal, Pesce, TVR, McGinn
Probably not moved because of contracts/low value: Rask, Darling, Dhalbeck
Can see a chance of one or more of them being moved in the right deal: Faulk, Hanifin, Fleury
Think they have a good chance of being moved in a trade: Lindholm, Skinner
Likely won't be back: Nordstrom, PDG, Kruger,

So I see Nordstrom, PDG, Kruger being gone, one of Lindholm or Skinner likely, and possible one of Faulk, Hanifin, Fleury. I'm sure they'd move Darling, and to a lesser extent Rask if they could, but the value/contract likely prevents it. Dhalbeck I think will be back. He's a decent safety net and will be cheap.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was looking at Derek Ryan and Brock McGinn's numbers. I'm wondering what it is about McGinn that everyone loves, but with Ryan, everybody hates. Ryan's deployment was only slightly easier than McGinn's this season, but he was pretty much better in almost every metric except hits and GVAs and maybe a bit "luckier" in terms of OISH%. Is it just because McGinn plays a more physical game (which has value)?

I'm not advocating that Ryan be brought back, as I'd like the Canes to improve on the center position over him, but what makes us think McGinn will be anything more than a 4th liner?

	Ryan	McGinn
Goals	15	16
Points	38	30
+/-	-15	-12
5v5 Goals	12	10
5v5 G/60	0.72	0.6
5v5 Points	27	22
5v5 P/60	1.61	1.33
CF%	57.05	54.36
CF% Rel	3.29	-0.33
PDO	0.957	0.968
OISH%	7.08	5.93
OA SH%	11.10%	10.10%
Hits	52	137
GVA	48	34
TKA	54	38
Blks	27	17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[GoldiFox]

If there was a “toughness to play against” metric from 1-10 (1 being a sculpture of melting butter and 10 being Brad Marchand) then I feel like Derek Ryan is close to a 2 while McGinn is closer to a 7.

Ryan is great at capitalizing on gimmes that present before him. He’s got a lot of skill. I think his effectiveness in a Playoff game would be close to 0%. Once the game starts getting heavy Ryan is absolutely worthless. McGinn feels more like the opposite, more of a mini-Hulk vibe.

 

[AD Skinner]

Plus McGinn is only 24, Ryan is 31. McGinn may yet see some improvement, Ryan is much more likely to regress

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If there was a “toughness to play against” metric from 1-10 (1 being a sculpture of melting butter and 10 being Brad Marchand) then I feel like Derek Ryan is close to a 2 while McGinn is closer to a 7.

Yeah, there's no disagreement there. I've just seen most people have him firmly in the top 9 and some even top 6. I think "toughness to play against" aside, in order for him to be in that role, he needs to be more productive offensively. Don't get me wrong, I like McGinn and he's one of the few guys that throws hits and he's improved every year, so I'm not suggesting that we move him, nor do I think we will. I just think he'll need to take another step forward offensively in order to be entrenched in the top 9.

 

[Primetime8]

Yeah, there's no disagreement there. I've just seen most people have him firmly in the top 9 and some even top 6. I think "toughness to play against" aside, in order for him to be in that role, he needs to be more productive offensively. Don't get me wrong, I like McGinn and he's one of the few guys that throws hits and he's improved every year, so I'm not suggesting that we move him, nor do I think we will. I just think he'll need to take another step forward offensively in order to be entrenched in the top 9.

McGinn was also leading the league in goal posts hit about 3/4 of the way through the year. I think some people (including myself) saw that as bad luck.

I feel like he can be a great 15 goal / 25 assist guy playing as a somewhat grinding 3rd liner.

 

[sheriff bart]

Aho, Slavin, Williams, Turbo, and Staal should be confident in their spots on the team. Lindholm is a guy I see a bit different than most. He hasn't lit it up, but it seems like the corner is about to be turned. The problem is that the corner always seems like it's ready to be turned with him. I don't know if his trade value makes it feasible to shop him.

I wonder if Rask was playing with one shoulder all year and that was the reason for the regression. If so, we should fire RF again for letting him grind that out with help in Charlotte a phone call away. If he was dealing with a broken wing, I wouldn't sell low on him now.

McGinn plays a game that this team is sorely lacking and it would take a bigger return than he'd bring back in order for me to part with him.

I'd like to see Skinner and Faulk moved, not because they are useless, but because they have been part of the problem for too long and have too much of the stink of the losing culture on them.

I would listen to trade proposals on Hanifin, Fluery, and Pesce. It would have to be a good return that would address the forward issue. I see Dahlbeck and TVR as having more value to the Canes at their pay grade than any return could bring.

Nordy and PDG? One can stay and one can go. I don't have a lot of reason to say keep either, but we need to ice a 4th line.

Kruger, bye bye.

Darling. Buyout ASAP. He's a sunk cost and the sooner they accept that and move on, the sooner we can all exhale. Any guy that gets his big break, signs the big deal to be a starter, and comes to camp fat and out of shape doesn't have the drive this team needs.


UFA's

Ward - I'd be okay with him being the backup. I thought he did okay in that role until he had to shoulder the starter's load again. I also would be fine with another backup if the new GM can find a starter and a backup.

Stemp and Ryan - it's been real, and it's been fun, but it hasn't been real fun. I see them as easily replaced. Ryan is the softest of soft.

Needs

Starting goaltender. Goes without saying. Maybe a trade that can be made at the draft. Not much in the UFA pool. It must be addressed.

A top 6 forward, preferably a 1C, but those don't grow on trees. That is going to take some kind of trade moving a piece or two that is going to cause some heartburn, but is needed to make this team get over the hump.

A defensive gray beard. Somebody that has seen a thing or two about a thing or two. I'm assuming a Dman will be traded, so this opens up a slot. This team misses the stability that Hainsey brought and that influence is sorely needed.

Toughness. A couple of guys that are sore losers and who have anger management issues. I'm tired of the blandest of bland.

You just can't address all these needs and bring everybody back that is currently on the roster. Moves must be made, or we'll be right back here next April.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I feel like he can be a great 15 goal / 25 assist guy playing as a somewhat grinding 3rd liner.

If we can get 40 points, physical defensively responsible play and also some PK out of him, that would be great, but I think that is very optimistic if he's not on the PP.

The only 2 players this year on Carolina with 40+ points 5v5 are Aho (44) and TT (40). If I add all Even Strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3), then we add Skinner to that list. Last year, only Skinner (47 points) had more than 40 points at ES. I just don't see McGinn having the offensive chops to hit that number unless either (a) he gets PP time or (b) the Canes become a much higher scoring team overall.

 

[AD Skinner]

Any guy that gets his big break, signs the big deal to be a starter, and comes to camp fat and out of shape doesn't have the drive this team needs.

This pretty much says it all. I remember telling myself over the summer "we're all reading too much into a few pictures on the internet" and that it would be fine. Clearly that wasn't the case. When higher ups on your team are comfortable telling the media that this happened, then this likely wasn't just some miscommunication of expectations.

 

[Canes]

Not sure but unless players Skinner and/or Lindholm are going in packages for clear upgrades, I have a feeling it's just re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Ideally I would like to keep players like them and trade futures to add more talent around them so they can be slotted down and not have to be relied on so heavily, but that's easier said than done. Either way, the talent needs to be upgraded and depth has to be improved. Not sure just swapping out a few players will do much.

 

[Primetime8]

If we can get 40 points, physical defensively responsible play and also some PK out of him, that would be great, but I think that is very optimistic if he's not on the PP.

The only 2 players this year on Carolina with 40+ points 5v5 are Aho (44) and TT (40). If I add all Even Strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3), then we add Skinner to that list. Last year, only Skinner (47 points) had more than 40 points at ES. I just don't see McGinn having the offensive chops to hit that number unless either (a) he gets PP time or (b) the Canes become a much higher scoring team overall.

Good point. I guess 30 points with no PP time is really what I see.

 

[Stickpucker]

I feel like someone "big" has to be moved. I mean, how can you not after 9 years of no playoffs? I think Darling stays in the organization, much to my dismay. I chose Hanifin as the "big" piece, but I'm comfortable with feeling like it could be Skinner or Faulk in addition to Lindholm. Hopefully they go outside the organization for the new GM to remove any emotion from the decision making

The pattern with new GMs seems to be let me get my own coach in place and spend a year getting a feel for the org.