I spent the day doing a team-by-team goalie "deep dive." I looked through all the goalies who have played in the NHL this season and at prospect lists. I've resigned myself to the fact that the goalie solution we seek is not currently in our organization. Or does anybody think more of Darling, Ward, Nedeljkovic, Booth and/or Smith than I do? I was thinking we need to rebuild the entire position from the ground up, including maybe trading for a prospect, so I thought it would be best to get an idea of each team's individual situation.
I'm dealing with this from an "as is" point-of-view, so contracts count. The worst part is that most teams with young goalies coming up are in our division, so I'm not sure how that will shake out.
[There's a theory/joke in MLB scouting that "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." It's even got a fun acronym, TINSTAPP. It's really just a realization of how many things have to go right for an 18-year-old high school kid to go from drafted to being established in MLB, as well as how many undrafted guys come out of nowhere and succeed.
I suspect it's similar for goalies in the NHL. You really just don't know if a guy is a good prospect until he establishes himself in the league, thus determining that he was, in fact, a good prospect. Goalies are far more inconsistent than forwards or defencemen, and their performance often rides heavily on their team’s success. And goalies regularly come out of nowhere (Dominik Hasek was 199th overall, Henrik Lundqvist was 205th, and Tim Thomas was 96-years-old when he broke through.)]
First, a couple of neat notes:
- The only goalies to play for Anaheim this season -- John Gibson (52GP), Ryan Miller (24GP), Reto Berra (5GP) -- individually each have a save pct. of .926.
- The only goalies to play for Colorado this season -- Varlamov (43GP), Bernier (31GP) -- individually each have a save pct. of .914.
- I think we thought these guys were younger, but Antti Raanta is 28-years-old. Carter Hutton is 32.
Team-by-team:
Boston Bruins: Anton Khudobin (31, 26GP, .918, UFA), Tuukka Rask (31, 45GP, .917)
No real fit here. I suspect Khudobin will be back. This is basically a perfect goalie combo.
Buffalo Sabres: Linus Ullmark (24, 1GP, .978), Robin Lehner (26, 50GP, .911, RFA), Chad Johnson (31, 27GP, .896, UFA), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (prospect)
What a mess. Lehner is younger than I thought at 26, but is in a Darling-like position, which I don't like. I'd love to sign him as a backup and hope he develops into a No. 1, but I think he's going to want No. 1 money now. Don't know much about Ullmark, but if he's a real prospect, maybe we could make a pitch?
Detroit Red Wings: Jimmy Howard (33, 52GP, .910), Jared Coreau (26, 2GP, .865, UFA)
How does Ken Holland still have a job?
Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo (38, 26GP, .926), Harri Sateri (28, 9GP, .911, UFA), James Reimer (30, 36GP, .907)
No fits here.
Montreal Canadiens: Antti Niemi (34, 19GP, .909, UFA), Charlie Lindgren (24, 13GP, .907), Carey Price (30, 43GP, .904)
Obviously, the interesting guy here is Price. At only age 30, he's a good bet to bounce back and have at least 4-5 more elite seasons, but he's signed for eight more seasons at $10.5 million AAV, which is obviously huge. But, if he's not coming off a nightmare season, there's no chance a guy like this is even semi-available, so you've got to at least look at it. He's also got a NMC, so none of this may matter.
Ottawa Senators: Mike Condon (27, 26GP, .904), Craig Anderson (36, 50GP, .902)
Ick. Somehow better than our tandem, but ick.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (23, 57GP, .923), Louis Domingue (26, 15GP, .884, RFA), Peter Budaj (35, 8GP, .876)
One untouchable and two dogs. This team is really good, but I can't help but think they're going to wish they had *any* kind of backup at some point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Curtis McElhinney (34, 14GP, .929), Frederik Andersen (28, 58GP, .919), Calvin Pickard (25, 1GP, .857, RFA)
Another great setup. No help for us.
Carolina Hurricanes: Cam Ward (34, 37GP, .905, UFA), Scott Darling (29, 37GP, .888)
Hard to imagine a worse situation. Maybe if Ward's contract *wasn't* expiring.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Sergei Bobrovsky (29, 56GP, .921), Joonas Korpisalo (23, 15GP, .902)
Solid combo. No help.
New Jersey Devils: Ken Appleby (22, 3GP, .945, RFA), Cory Schneider (31, 38GP, .912), Keith Kinkaid (28, 30GP, .906), Eddie Lack (30, 8GP, .870, UFA)
Anybody know anything about Appleby? Good size, right age. Do they like him to be the guy eventually? Otherwise, not a lot here.
New York Islanders: Christopher Gibson (25, 3GP, .957, UFA), Jaroslav Halak (32, 47GP, .908, UFA), Thomas Greiss (32, 24GP, .891), Ilya Sorokin (prospect), Linus Soderstrom(prospect)
Two solid prospects coming. No help at the NHL level. Keep an eye on this situation.
New York Rangers: Alexandar Georgiev (22, 6GP, .929), Henrik Lundqvist (36, 58GP, .916), Ondrej Pavelec (30, 16GP, .910, UFA), Brandon Halverson (21, 1GP, .833), Igor Shestyorkin(prospect)
Similar to the Islanders, they have two young guys coming and not much help at the NHL level. Monitor the situation.
Philadelphia Flyers: Michal Neuvirth (29, 21GP, .915), Brian Elliott (32, 41GP, .908), Peter Mrazek (26, 31GP, .906, RFA), Alex Lyon (25, 6GP, .900, RFA), Carter Hart(prospect)
Another similar situation. Prospect Hart is probably the guy long term, and nobody at the NHL level moves the needle much. Neuvirth has been a solid goalie for a long time, however, and could make one half of a solid 1A/1B situation.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Casey DeSmith (26, 12GP, .916), Tristan Jarry (22, 25GP, .910, RFA), Matt Murray (23, 41GP, .909)
Worth a call. I'm pretty sure they don't want to pay Murray and Jarry long-term. I'd love to have Jarry, but after moving Filip Gustavsson in the Brassard trade, they probably feel thinner than they actually are at the position.
Washington Capitals: Philipp Grubauer (26, 28GP, .926, RFA), Braden Holtby (28, 48GP, .907), Ilya Samsonov (prospect)
Obviously the team with the greatest strength at the position, but I don't know how "within the division" affects the possibility of us getting involved. Any one of the three would be a huge improvement for us.
Chicago Blackhawks: Corey Crawford (33, 28GP, .929), Anton Forsberg (25, 30GP, .908), J.F. Berube (26, 7GP, .899), Jeff Glass (32, 14GP, .898, UFA)
Another GM with some work to do.
Colorado Avalanche: Jonathan Bernier (29, 31GP, .914, UFA), Semyon Varlamov (29, 43GP, .914)
No help, although -- similar to Neuvirth -- Bernier could be part of a solid tandem, but I wouldn't want to rely on him over any extended period of time.
Dallas Stars: Ben Bishop (31, 51GP, .917), Kari Lehtonen (34, 28GP, .915, UFA), Jake Oettinger (prospect)
Nice setup. No help for us.
Minnesota Wild: Devan Dubnyk (31, 51GP, .915), Alex Stalock (30, 25GP, .912)
No reason to change anything here.
Nashville Predators: Pekka Rinne (35, 51GP, .929), Juuse Saros (22, 19GP, .924, RFA)
As usual, a blueprint on how to do this. Elite veteran aging gracefully, elite youngster developing perfectly.
St. Louis: Carter Hutton (32, 30GP, .934, UFA), Jake Allen (27, 47GP, .907), Ville Husso (prospect)
I dunno about Hutton. He's 32. Maybe he's Tim Thomas, but probably not. Probably will get overpaid as a UFA, right?
Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck (24, 58GP, .925, RFA), Michael Hutchinson (28, 3GP, .907, UFA), Steve Mason (29, 12GP, .906), Eric Comrie (22, 1GP, .857, RFA)
Hit the jackpot with Hellebuyck. Hutchinson should be a perfect backup, but hasn't gotten a shot for one reason or another.
Anaheim Ducks: John Gibson (24, 52GP, .926), Ryan Miller (37, 24GP, .926), Reto Berra (31, 5GP, .926, UFA)
Another textbook situation. Imagine Nashville flashed forward two years. Elite youngster backed up by a solid veteran.
Arizona Coyotes: Marek Langhamer (23, 1GP, 1.000, RFA), Darcy Kuemper (27, 24GP, .927), Antti Raanta (28, 39GP, .924, UFA), Adin Hill (21, 4GP, .891)
I'd love to toss money at Raanta, but I really think he resigns here. The situation is just too good. He and Kuemper are a nice tandem. If Raanta somehow gets to free agency, we'd have to consider buying out Darling and making a competitive offer.
Calgary Flames: Mike Smith (35, 49GP, .922), David Rittich (25, 18GP, .908, RFA), Jon Gillies (24, 7GP, .904, RFA), Tyler Parsons (prospect)
I'm not a huge Smith fan, but you can't argue with those numbers. And the Flames have a handful of youngsters in the pipeline. Good situation, but nothing poachable, I don't think.
Edmonton Oilers: Cam Talbot (30, 56GP, .907), Laurent Brossoit (24, 13GP, .886, RFA), Al Montoya (33, 11GP, .884)
I like Talbot, and I'd call about trading for him. But given what else Edmonton has, I can't imagine they'd even consider dealing him, even coming off a shaky season.
Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick (32, 54GP, .922), Jack Campbell (26, 3GP, .918), Scott Wedgewood (25, 20GP, .893, RFA)
Quick is my favorite goalie. He's not going anywhere.
San Jose Sharks: Martin Jones (28, 50GP, .917), Aaron Dell (28, 26GP, .914)
Another textbook situation.
Vancouver Canucks: Jacob Markstrom (28, 52GP, .911), Anders Nilsson (27, 25GP, .902), Thatcher Demko (prospect)
I'd consider Markstrom for us, but they're set up to bring Demko along slowly and I can't imagine they'd mess with that. Another decent situation that doesn't help us.
Vegas Golden Knights: Oscar Dansk (24, 4GP, .946, RFA), Marc-Andre Fleury (33, 38GP, .927), Malcolm Subban (24, 16GP, .912), Maxime Legace (25, 16GP, .867, RFA), Dylan Ferguson (19, 1GP, .500)
In a perfect world, I think Vegas would like to go with Fleury-Subban for several seasons, then Subban-Fleury for several more. That makes Dansk a nice target, if you ask me. As an RFA with a very limited resume, he'd probably be happy with half of what we gave Darling.
My conclusion:
Plan A: Sell out for Grubauer. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan B: Sign Raanta as a UFA. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan C: Cobble together two goalies from among: Jarry, Dansk, Neuvirth, Bernier and Appleby/Ullmark, invite Darling to camp, but stash in Charlotte.
Plan D: Trade for Price, maybe Pacioretty, too, working Darling into the deal.
Lean on the Islanders and Rangers regularly to try to pop free one of their prospects.
Bring it ...