What's your Goaltending for next year?

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DaveG

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Sure, but it would depend on what else it costs. If it's 50% retention and a 7th round pick (unlikely) it's one thing. If it's 50% retention and a 2nd round pick then I'm not sure it's worth saving the $1.8M over a buyout to do that.

Again, all this assumes the Canes thinks Darling isn't salvageable. I don't think he is, but could be wrong.

I get the feeling it'll be more along the lines of "we'll take Darling at 50% if you take a shit contract back". Depending on the shit contract and the duration will determine if that's a good or bad idea.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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I get the feeling it'll be more along the lines of "we'll take Darling at 50% if you take a **** contract back". Depending on the **** contract and the duration will determine if that's a good or bad idea.

Maybe. I just have bad memories of JR basically trading a 2nd round pick (Alt) to get rid of 1 year of Boucher's contract, or a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick to get rid of Anthony Stewart (and still took Westgarth back).
 

My Special Purpose

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I spent the day doing a team-by-team goalie "deep dive." I looked through all the goalies who have played in the NHL this season and at prospect lists. I've resigned myself to the fact that the goalie solution we seek is not currently in our organization. Or does anybody think more of Darling, Ward, Nedeljkovic, Booth and/or Smith than I do? I was thinking we need to rebuild the entire position from the ground up, including maybe trading for a prospect, so I thought it would be best to get an idea of each team's individual situation.

I'm dealing with this from an "as is" point-of-view, so contracts count. The worst part is that most teams with young goalies coming up are in our division, so I'm not sure how that will shake out.

[There's a theory/joke in MLB scouting that "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." It's even got a fun acronym, TINSTAPP. It's really just a realization of how many things have to go right for an 18-year-old high school kid to go from drafted to being established in MLB, as well as how many undrafted guys come out of nowhere and succeed.

I suspect it's similar for goalies in the NHL. You really just don't know if a guy is a good prospect until he establishes himself in the league, thus determining that he was, in fact, a good prospect. Goalies are far more inconsistent than forwards or defencemen, and their performance often rides heavily on their team’s success. And goalies regularly come out of nowhere (Dominik Hasek was 199th overall, Henrik Lundqvist was 205th, and Tim Thomas was 96-years-old when he broke through.)]

First, a couple of neat notes:
  • The only goalies to play for Anaheim this season -- John Gibson (52GP), Ryan Miller (24GP), Reto Berra (5GP) -- individually each have a save pct. of .926.
  • The only goalies to play for Colorado this season -- Varlamov (43GP), Bernier (31GP) -- individually each have a save pct. of .914.
  • I think we thought these guys were younger, but Antti Raanta is 28-years-old. Carter Hutton is 32.
Team-by-team:

Boston Bruins: Anton Khudobin (31, 26GP, .918, UFA), Tuukka Rask (31, 45GP, .917)
No real fit here. I suspect Khudobin will be back. This is basically a perfect goalie combo.

Buffalo Sabres: Linus Ullmark (24, 1GP, .978), Robin Lehner (26, 50GP, .911, RFA), Chad Johnson (31, 27GP, .896, UFA), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (prospect)
What a mess. Lehner is younger than I thought at 26, but is in a Darling-like position, which I don't like. I'd love to sign him as a backup and hope he develops into a No. 1, but I think he's going to want No. 1 money now. Don't know much about Ullmark, but if he's a real prospect, maybe we could make a pitch?

Detroit Red Wings: Jimmy Howard (33, 52GP, .910), Jared Coreau (26, 2GP, .865, UFA)
How does Ken Holland still have a job?

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo (38, 26GP, .926), Harri Sateri (28, 9GP, .911, UFA), James Reimer (30, 36GP, .907)
No fits here.

Montreal Canadiens: Antti Niemi (34, 19GP, .909, UFA), Charlie Lindgren (24, 13GP, .907), Carey Price (30, 43GP, .904)
Obviously, the interesting guy here is Price. At only age 30, he's a good bet to bounce back and have at least 4-5 more elite seasons, but he's signed for eight more seasons at $10.5 million AAV, which is obviously huge. But, if he's not coming off a nightmare season, there's no chance a guy like this is even semi-available, so you've got to at least look at it. He's also got a NMC, so none of this may matter.

Ottawa Senators: Mike Condon (27, 26GP, .904), Craig Anderson (36, 50GP, .902)
Ick. Somehow better than our tandem, but ick.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (23, 57GP, .923), Louis Domingue (26, 15GP, .884, RFA), Peter Budaj (35, 8GP, .876)
One untouchable and two dogs. This team is really good, but I can't help but think they're going to wish they had *any* kind of backup at some point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Curtis McElhinney (34, 14GP, .929), Frederik Andersen (28, 58GP, .919), Calvin Pickard (25, 1GP, .857, RFA)
Another great setup. No help for us.

Carolina Hurricanes: Cam Ward (34, 37GP, .905, UFA), Scott Darling (29, 37GP, .888)
Hard to imagine a worse situation. Maybe if Ward's contract *wasn't* expiring.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Sergei Bobrovsky (29, 56GP, .921), Joonas Korpisalo (23, 15GP, .902)
Solid combo. No help.

New Jersey Devils: Ken Appleby (22, 3GP, .945, RFA), Cory Schneider (31, 38GP, .912), Keith Kinkaid (28, 30GP, .906), Eddie Lack (30, 8GP, .870, UFA)
Anybody know anything about Appleby? Good size, right age. Do they like him to be the guy eventually? Otherwise, not a lot here.

New York Islanders: Christopher Gibson (25, 3GP, .957, UFA), Jaroslav Halak (32, 47GP, .908, UFA), Thomas Greiss (32, 24GP, .891), Ilya Sorokin (prospect), Linus Soderstrom(prospect)
Two solid prospects coming. No help at the NHL level. Keep an eye on this situation.

New York Rangers: Alexandar Georgiev (22, 6GP, .929), Henrik Lundqvist (36, 58GP, .916), Ondrej Pavelec (30, 16GP, .910, UFA), Brandon Halverson (21, 1GP, .833), Igor Shestyorkin(prospect)
Similar to the Islanders, they have two young guys coming and not much help at the NHL level. Monitor the situation.

Philadelphia Flyers: Michal Neuvirth (29, 21GP, .915), Brian Elliott (32, 41GP, .908), Peter Mrazek (26, 31GP, .906, RFA), Alex Lyon (25, 6GP, .900, RFA), Carter Hart(prospect)
Another similar situation. Prospect Hart is probably the guy long term, and nobody at the NHL level moves the needle much. Neuvirth has been a solid goalie for a long time, however, and could make one half of a solid 1A/1B situation.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Casey DeSmith (26, 12GP, .916), Tristan Jarry (22, 25GP, .910, RFA), Matt Murray (23, 41GP, .909)
Worth a call. I'm pretty sure they don't want to pay Murray and Jarry long-term. I'd love to have Jarry, but after moving Filip Gustavsson in the Brassard trade, they probably feel thinner than they actually are at the position.

Washington Capitals: Philipp Grubauer (26, 28GP, .926, RFA), Braden Holtby (28, 48GP, .907), Ilya Samsonov (prospect)
Obviously the team with the greatest strength at the position, but I don't know how "within the division" affects the possibility of us getting involved. Any one of the three would be a huge improvement for us.

Chicago Blackhawks: Corey Crawford (33, 28GP, .929), Anton Forsberg (25, 30GP, .908), J.F. Berube (26, 7GP, .899), Jeff Glass (32, 14GP, .898, UFA)
Another GM with some work to do.

Colorado Avalanche: Jonathan Bernier (29, 31GP, .914, UFA), Semyon Varlamov (29, 43GP, .914)
No help, although -- similar to Neuvirth -- Bernier could be part of a solid tandem, but I wouldn't want to rely on him over any extended period of time.

Dallas Stars: Ben Bishop (31, 51GP, .917), Kari Lehtonen (34, 28GP, .915, UFA), Jake Oettinger (prospect)
Nice setup. No help for us.

Minnesota Wild: Devan Dubnyk (31, 51GP, .915), Alex Stalock (30, 25GP, .912)
No reason to change anything here.

Nashville Predators: Pekka Rinne (35, 51GP, .929), Juuse Saros (22, 19GP, .924, RFA)
As usual, a blueprint on how to do this. Elite veteran aging gracefully, elite youngster developing perfectly.

St. Louis: Carter Hutton (32, 30GP, .934, UFA), Jake Allen (27, 47GP, .907), Ville Husso (prospect)
I dunno about Hutton. He's 32. Maybe he's Tim Thomas, but probably not. Probably will get overpaid as a UFA, right?

Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck (24, 58GP, .925, RFA), Michael Hutchinson (28, 3GP, .907, UFA), Steve Mason (29, 12GP, .906), Eric Comrie (22, 1GP, .857, RFA)
Hit the jackpot with Hellebuyck. Hutchinson should be a perfect backup, but hasn't gotten a shot for one reason or another.

Anaheim Ducks: John Gibson (24, 52GP, .926), Ryan Miller (37, 24GP, .926), Reto Berra (31, 5GP, .926, UFA)
Another textbook situation. Imagine Nashville flashed forward two years. Elite youngster backed up by a solid veteran.

Arizona Coyotes: Marek Langhamer (23, 1GP, 1.000, RFA), Darcy Kuemper (27, 24GP, .927), Antti Raanta (28, 39GP, .924, UFA), Adin Hill (21, 4GP, .891)
I'd love to toss money at Raanta, but I really think he resigns here. The situation is just too good. He and Kuemper are a nice tandem. If Raanta somehow gets to free agency, we'd have to consider buying out Darling and making a competitive offer.

Calgary Flames: Mike Smith (35, 49GP, .922), David Rittich (25, 18GP, .908, RFA), Jon Gillies (24, 7GP, .904, RFA), Tyler Parsons (prospect)
I'm not a huge Smith fan, but you can't argue with those numbers. And the Flames have a handful of youngsters in the pipeline. Good situation, but nothing poachable, I don't think.

Edmonton Oilers: Cam Talbot (30, 56GP, .907), Laurent Brossoit (24, 13GP, .886, RFA), Al Montoya (33, 11GP, .884)
I like Talbot, and I'd call about trading for him. But given what else Edmonton has, I can't imagine they'd even consider dealing him, even coming off a shaky season.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick (32, 54GP, .922), Jack Campbell (26, 3GP, .918), Scott Wedgewood (25, 20GP, .893, RFA)
Quick is my favorite goalie. He's not going anywhere.

San Jose Sharks: Martin Jones (28, 50GP, .917), Aaron Dell (28, 26GP, .914)
Another textbook situation.

Vancouver Canucks: Jacob Markstrom (28, 52GP, .911), Anders Nilsson (27, 25GP, .902), Thatcher Demko (prospect)
I'd consider Markstrom for us, but they're set up to bring Demko along slowly and I can't imagine they'd mess with that. Another decent situation that doesn't help us.

Vegas Golden Knights: Oscar Dansk (24, 4GP, .946, RFA), Marc-Andre Fleury (33, 38GP, .927), Malcolm Subban (24, 16GP, .912), Maxime Legace (25, 16GP, .867, RFA), Dylan Ferguson (19, 1GP, .500)
In a perfect world, I think Vegas would like to go with Fleury-Subban for several seasons, then Subban-Fleury for several more. That makes Dansk a nice target, if you ask me. As an RFA with a very limited resume, he'd probably be happy with half of what we gave Darling.

My conclusion:

Plan A: Sell out for Grubauer. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan B: Sign Raanta as a UFA. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan C: Cobble together two goalies from among: Jarry, Dansk, Neuvirth, Bernier and Appleby/Ullmark, invite Darling to camp, but stash in Charlotte.
Plan D: Trade for Price, maybe Pacioretty, too, working Darling into the deal.

Lean on the Islanders and Rangers regularly to try to pop free one of their prospects.

Bring it ...
 
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bleedgreen

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Well done on the chart, and it just shows how there is not many good options out there for us. Even worse, we may have difficulty getting Ward back if he wants to cash in. It’s a good summer for him to get some cash.

I agree Grubauer is one of the few options. I’m kinda meh on Raanta. There’s no one that’s absolutely going to solidly our team, only be better than Darling has been.
 

A Star is Burns

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Buying Darling out is the only option for me, unless we somehow find a sucker to take him Kaberle style. At this point, I don't want him at any level of the organization and the buyout math is perfectly acceptable to me. We'll see what happens.
 

A Star is Burns

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Sure, but that's still how I'd do it if I was paying it. I hope he puts his money where his mouth is when he said he's willing to spend to win. I think that's a perfectly acceptable amount that we need to win, and not clog up the lower levels of our organization.

Of course, as much as he wants to win I'm sure and/or hates losing, he hasn't been through the same 9 years we have as fans. So I understand that figures into my thinking as well.
 
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Darling should not be here next season.

Hutton seems like another Darling situation, someone will overpay him when he has played only backup his whole career.

What about Sparks from Leafs farm? He is one of the best if not the best AHL goalie at the moment.
 
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bluedevil58

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Darling should not be here next season.

Hutton seems like another Darling situation, someone will overpay him when he has played only backup his whole career.

What about Sparks from Leafs farm? He is one of the best if not the best AHL goalie at the moment.

Which means nothing.
 

Buenos Necas

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Raanta and Grubauer would probably be my top choices, maybe Lehner if not either of those two. I'd been thinking about Jarry as an option, but the Pens dealing Gustavsson and Ronnie getting the boot might lessen the chances on that one. If the Caps really did make Holtby available I'd be all in him, but that seems doubtful. His NTC and being in the division also hurt.

Hopefully Ned gets a couple games at least, seeing what we have there is probably the best thing we can do with the remaining games.
 

DaveG

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I'll disagree with you on Markstrom Kev. He's in a perfect situation for himself and got to where he is because he had an elite goaltending coach in Rollie Melanson. The fear there to me is that he's another Eddie Lack. A guy that's in a comfortable situation for himself that would absolutely implode upon coming here. Frankly I don't think he'd be an upgrade at all on Ward, he had the pre-draft pedigree but he was dog shit everywhere else he went until he got to Vancouver. To me both his play and his stats scream Al Montoya circa 2014-16 to me. Is that something you'd REALLY be OK with bringing in as a starter? Like at all? As I said he reads like Eddie Lack to me... but worse. And like Darling and Lack he's yet another big goalie that's slow laterally and terrible when it comes to both covering up loose pucks and handling the puck. Not at all interested.
 
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StormCast

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Buying Darling out is the only option for me, unless we somehow find a sucker to take him Kaberle style. At this point, I don't want him at any level of the organization and the buyout math is perfectly acceptable to me. We'll see what happens.
I think the only realistic way to deal Darling is to send him back to Chicago with a 50% retention. His utter incompetence this year as a starter will make most teams wary that he is "broken" but Chicago is the only place (professionally and personally) where he might regain his confidence as a back-up. Not saying the Hawks would be interested but as armchair GM, that's where I'd start.
 

DaveG

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I think the only realistic way to deal Darling is to send him back to Chicago with a 50% retention. His utter incompetence this year as a starter will make most teams wary that he is "broken" but Chicago is the only place (professionally and personally) where he might regain his confidence as a back-up. Not saying the Hawks would be interested but as armchair GM, that's where I'd start.
We'd probably have to take Hossa's dead contract space off their hands in order to make the deal. I'd still be in favor of the move though.
 

geehaad

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Lehner's my guy. He's a bit crazy, and that's what this team needs more of. You want to stop the complacency? Go get a guy who lays into his team for f***ing up. No skater would survive being on a team with a #1 goaltender who hates losing as much as Lehner does.

No contract. Doesn't want to stay in BUF, a team not going anywhere at the moment, so they can afford to restart their rebuild. Not expensive ($4M), proven NHL quality.

EDIT: Now, having said that, I know nothing about his goaltending style, which seems to be a key factor in how well a guy plays here in CAR. MAKE SURE THE NEXT GUY CAN ACTUALLY BACKSTOP THIS TEAM!
 
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MinJaBen

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If we have to trade to get a guy, I'm calling about Grubauer before I call about Lehner. I'd be fine trying Lehner, but Grubauer has looked better, also an RFA this year and the Caps goaltending situation and cap situation make him more likely to be moved than Lehner in Buffalo if going by team needs. I wonder if the Caps would do a straight up Fleury for Grubauer trade? They need defense and cheap contracts. We need a goalie. Seems like it would be a win-win for both teams.
 

DaveG

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Grubauer was the #1 target for me last offseason, would remain that way for me this offseason, but again not sure the Caps are going to move him in-division. We'd have to Billy Beane the crap out of getting either him or Holtby by having to get a 3rd team to act as an intermediary. I'd go after something around Rask + Fleury + pick for O'Reilly and Lehner in a second, assuming we don't pick in the top 10.
 

MinJaBen

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If we were trying to two for one, then maybe ROR and Lehner is better than Grubauer only, but that seems much more unlikely as there is no reason for Buffalo to be trading ROR. On the other hand, Grubauer is an RFA with arbitration, so he is going to need a new contract and it won't be a bargain. The Caps have a fantastic goalie prospect that is waiting to make the jump who would be cheap. They also need picks and defensive depth after letting Schmidt be taken by Vegas. Even though it is in the division (and that was shown not to be a big deal given they moved Johansson to the Devils last summer), I think they would jump at a Fleury (maybe plus a 2nd or 3rd) for Grubauer trade.
 

AD Skinner

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I think they would jump at a Fleury (maybe plus a 2nd or 3rd) for Grubauer trade.

I'd do that in heartbeat if I'm the new GM. Fleury may end up being a solid #2 defenseman but I think that's probably his ceiling. That's worth a starting goalie every day of the week. The contract situation could be a hiccup though. He only made 1.5 million this year so even with a nice raise he wouldn't be super expensive, but I'd be very leery about giving him any more than 2 years as we've seen over and over how committing to a goalie you've never seen play for you can completely blow up in your face
 

MinJaBen

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I'd do that in heartbeat if I'm the new GM. Fleury may end up being a solid #2 defenseman but I think that's probably his ceiling. That's worth a starting goalie every day of the week. The contract situation could be a hiccup though. He only made 1.5 million this year so even with a nice raise he wouldn't be super expensive, but I'd be very leery about giving him any more than 2 years as we've seen over and over how committing to a goalie you've never seen play for you can completely blow up in your face

That's the advantage to getting an RFA, even if he is arbitration eligible. We probably have to pay him market value due to arbitration, but we can keep the term shorter (if we want to) as a show me contract. A two year $4.5M contract is probably the sweet spot...gives him his salary, allows us to renegotiate at the 1 year mark if both sides are happy, and is not too long should we ruin another goalie.
 

NotOpie

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I don’t know that I see them buying him out. Maybe Rask because he’s an easier buy out, but I would also think Rask may have value for some sort of trade.

Unless you’re made of money buyouts are painful, and just because this guy acts like he’s got tons of cash doesn’t mean he wants to deal with buyouts.

Ward/Darling is a distinct possibility. I could also see them trying a third guy who’s cheap and could go to the minors, and rotate him with Darling going back and forth.

The issue, as I see it, is much more about managing the Canes cap in 19-20 and 20-21. Burying Darling in Charlotte in 18-19 does cost his full salary (but saves $1 million in cap). It then saves a tiny bit of cap in those two crucial seasons. Should they still be on the team, that's when Skinner's, Faulks, Aho's, and Teravainen's new contracts would likely kick in. You'd also have the 2nd year of any deal you did w/Lindy and Hanifin reflected. By burying Darling you not only give him the very unlikely chance to redeem himself, you could then buy him out in the subsequent year and save $1.2 million in cap on the back end.

I don't think Rask gets bought out. I think he's part of a trade or given a chance to play his way back into the organization's good graces.

We'd probably have to take Hossa's dead contract space off their hands in order to make the deal. I'd still be in favor of the move though.

If we did that then I can't imagine retaining a dime on Darling.

I'd go after something around Rask + Fleury + pick for O'Reilly and Lehner in a second, assuming we don't pick in the top 10.

I really like the idea of trying to get ROR (who I think will be a tough get) and Lehner, but it's going to cost more than what most would want to pay. I proposed a deal on the main board a while back that was something like:

To Buffalo
Rask
Bean (or Fleury)
2019 1st
One of Kuokkanen/Gauthier

To Carolina
ROR
2019 3rd

Most thought that was a pretty fair deal.

I think you could substitute Lehner for Buffalo's 3rd and it might still be fair.
 

Yoshidas Island

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Montreal Canadiens: Antti Niemi (34, 19GP, .909, UFA), Charlie Lindgren (24, 13GP, .907), Carey Price (30, 43GP, .904)
Obviously, the interesting guy here is Price. At only age 30, he's a good bet to bounce back and have at least 4-5 more elite seasons, but he's signed for eight more seasons at $10.5 million AAV, which is obviously huge. But, if he's not coming off a nightmare season, there's no chance a guy like this is even semi-available, so you've got to at least look at it. He's also got a NMC, so none of this may matter.


My conclusion:

Plan A: Sell out for Grubauer. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan B: Sign Raanta as a UFA. Darling/Ned backup.
Plan C: Cobble together two goalies from among: Jarry, Dansk, Neuvirth, Bernier and Appleby/Ullmark, invite Darling to camp, but stash in Charlotte.
Plan D: Trade for Price, maybe Pacioretty, too, working Darling into the deal.

Lean on the Islanders and Rangers regularly to try to pop free one of their prospects.

Bring it ...

As the Habs forum is pretty uh... negative, I've been ghosting the Canes forum a lot recently, as I was hoping they'd be the team I would support in the playoffs... :ha::(

That being said, I think your 4 plans are both solid and ordered correctly.
There's a lot of productive conversation going on in this forum, it's quite awesome.

Just for completion sake, I could help with trying to find a reasonable deal for plan D if you want, I enjoy discussing deals :)
 
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