What's considered a good draft pick? (A look back)

[Leadzedder]

Just from reading threads about our draft history and draft info in general I'm left with the question... What is a good draft pick? I often see things typed like "bad pick when we could have picked star player X". Out of a 100 picks afterward you can't cherry pick the best one. That doesn't make sense does it?

Example, it's 2005 and you have the 42nd pick. You pick Abdelkader. There's another 150 or so picks afterwards. Within those 150 there's gonna be some players equal to or better than Abdelkader. Having some great players picked afterwards doesn't really downgrade the quality of the pick.

So what makes a good pick?

• Draft position / round / expectation
• Games played / Points
• Players chosen afterward / The amount of good players afterwards
• Circumstances / potential of payout

I got all the years written down, I'll start with 2005. Wings picks and other notable picks. Probably missed some. Just did a quick scan. I'll throw up a 1-5 score for each. Not gonna put much thought into it, just for discussion sake.


2005

19. Kindl - 1 star? - We all know Kindl wasn't the player we hoped he was, but he made the show. I'd rank him 2 stars but we just needed this 1st round defenseman dude to hit. We didn't miss out on any superstar guys close to / after 19.
21. Tuuka Rask
24. Oshie
25. Cogliano
28. Niskanen
29. Downie
33. Neal
35. Vlasic
41. Pavelec
42. Abdelkader - 5 stars? It's a solid pick. Getting a core piece at 42 seems like a success.
44. Stastny
55. McQuaid
57. Kassian
62. Letang
67. Russel
72. Quick
80. Lofberg - 3 stars. Weird rating for a guy that didn't hit at all, but looking further down the board we didn't miss on much. Hakan loved him. It was worth the swing.
85. Bishop
88. Hensick
101. Boll
103. Ritola - 3 stars? - He got a cup of coffee from the 103 spot. Seems decent.
105. Yandle
106. Sobotka
108. Hjalmarsson
132. Helm - 5 stars all day. Great pick.
137. Ryno - 2 stars. Already have HAkan a pass on Lofberg. But at 137 really there's no expectation. Nothing good below us.
142. Gerbe
151. May - 2 stars. Can't really complain about a late pick, not doing anything. They rarely do.
155. Fayne
175. Meilonen - 2 stars. Can't really complain about a late pick, not doing anything. They rarely do. (I don't even remember this dude)
200. Kostisyn
204. Greening
214. Stamler - Stamler's mom has got it doing on. Regardless. 1 star. Just because there's some 7th round homeruns listed below.
216. Stralman
230. Hornquist

Overall, Kindl hurts but getting Abby and Helm out of what looks like a shit draft is decent.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Leadzedder]

2006

41. Emmerton - 3 stars? I don't know. Made the show.
44. Kulemin
45. Petry
46. Enroth
47. Matthias - same? 3 stars
50. Lucic
53. Carle
54. Anisimov
62. Hat Trick Dick - I'm going 3 stars again. I remember pencilling this guy into line ups for years. Big potential.
71. Marchand
72. Clutterbuck
85. Sestito
92. Larsson #1 - 4 stars. Although he didn't end up putting much time in GR he was a quality pick. Played internationally there for a bit.
99. Reimer
106. Berra
112. Beleskey
161. Stalberg
180. Komarov
182. Mursak - 4 stars. He was an injury away from making the team. Not bad for 182.
189. Dorsett
191. Oslund - 2 stars
211. Condra
212. Pyett - sure, 2 stars for everyone.

Odd, I'm giving decent grades but we got 0 core pieces out of this draft.

 

[Leadzedder]

2007

27. Smith - 4 star?? he's no Subban but it's not a bad return at all for 27th.
31. TJ Brennan
43. Subban
55. Gilardi
61. Simmonds
77. Killorn
79. Palmeiri
88. Andersson - 2 star?
95. Martinez
99. Frattin
112. Sceviour
129. Jamie Benn
141. Muzzin
148. Cameron - 2?
161. Maroon
168. Hagelin
173. Bonino
178. Torquato - 2?
194. Gunarsson
208. Rufenach - 2? - I believe Rufenach passed away. If so, RIP.


There's a few players listed that would have been nice to have but not much came out of that draft after 27.

 

[Leadzedder]

2008

30. McCollum - Brutal. 1 star. Lots of good players came after this. Bad pick all around. Shouldn't have been used on a goalie.
31. Markstrom
32. Voynov
34. Allen
38. Josi
42. Weircoch
43. Schultz
51. Stepan
53. Hamonic
55. Scandella
82. Henrique
91. Nicastro - 2 star. Can't expect a hit at 91 but this guy didn't do much for a prospect at all.
93. Holtby
114. Brodie
121. Nyquist - 5 star. Excellent pick.
148. Matt Martin
151. Cayer - 3 star?. he was big and fast. that's all i remember.
156. Spurgeon
157. Atkinson
160. Witkowski
178. Rinaldo
181. Johnston - 2 star. just another dart for the board
186. Demers
207. Lindback
211. Samuelsson - 2 star, whatever.


Nyquist was a great addition but we could have got much more out of rounds 1-3. It would have been a good year to have a 2nd rounder.

 

[Leadzedder]

2009

32. Ferraro - 1 star. This was a miss with nice (hindsight) options on board. Picks at 32 can't be throwaway picks.
33. Ryan O'Reilly
34. Klingberg
35. Clifford
38. Chaisson
39. Silverberg
45. Morin
46. Lehner
55. Orlov
60. Tatar - 5 star. There's certainly other good options below but when you can get a top 6 winger with the 60 pick, that's a win.
64. Barrie
69. Reilly Smith
75. Nestrasil - 3 star, decent.
85. Eakin
90. Fournier - 1 star, fournier didn't do anything and there's some nice d available.
92. Cizikas
102. Ekholm
104. Foligno
106. Vatanen
130. Hoffman
149. Kruger
150. Jensen - 5 star, nice pick.
152. Lee
180. Callahan - 3 star, decent
198. Dowd
210. Almquist - 4 star, came close. good pick for 7th rounder


We got 2 players out of this draft which is decent. Hitting on the 32 would have made this a great draft.

 

[Leadzedder]

2010

21. Sheahan - gotta be 1 star. Need an impact player at 21. He's decent with Pitts, but he was just so lame for a few years here. Plus I wanted Kuznetsov.
23. Pysyk
26. Kuznetsov
28. Coyle
30. Nelson
37. Faulk
38. Merrill
45. Spooner
47. Toffoli
51. Jarnkrok - 4 stars. This pick was a no brainer. Maybe not a Zetterberg clone but good player.
56. Larsson
66. Gudas
80. Rust
81. Aubry - 2 stars, bit of a blah pick. A poor man's Sheahan 2 rounds later. What?
99. Donskai
110. Kuhnacki
111. Pulkinnen - 4 stars. Regardless how it turned out still a great pick. Another no brainer.
112. Grubhauer
123. Hyman
131. Kingberg
141. Mrazek - 5 star. Not that long ago dude was in a conversation that didn't last long about a vezina. That's super solid from 141.
147. Gallagher
171. Macek - 1 star, sorry Brooks, don't remember you doing anything as a prospect
178. Stone
187. Andersson
201. Marshall - 3 star, had good potential for a late pick. shifty small dman.
210. Trotman

Years back this draft was one that brought us a whole bunch of hope. Only a bench warmer left.

 

[Leadzedder]

Speaking of a draft that brought us hope...

2011

35. Jurco - I'm gonna say 3 stars, in hindsight 2 stars but he looked real solid for awhile there.
37. Jenner
39. Gibson
41. Jaskin
43. Saad
44. Ritchie
45. Granlund
48. Ouellet - looked so good as a prospect. 2 star
55. Sproul - same. 2 star
58. Kucherov (blah)
64. Trochek (must not have noticed this guy playing ball hockey in Mickey's driveway)
67. Lowry
85. Quine - 3 star just because he went on to do something
86. Leivo
96. Pageau
104. Gaudreau
114. Reider
115. Tvrdon - it was a good risk pick. didn't work out. 3 star
145. Hudon - 1 star, because... who?
146. Backman - 2 star, almost a good prospect
148. Nestrorov
160. Manson
175. Nedomel - never developed 2 star
204. Dingel
205. Marchenko - 5 star, an nhler at 205 is good.
208. Palat


This was the draft that was suppose to restock our defence. 4 D prospects we were very high on once upon a time.

 

[Leadzedder]

2012

49. Frk - 4 stars. not that Frk is a star,but it was a good pick for 49. The 3rd piece of the MacKinnon, Drouin line. A good gamble.
60. Severson
61. Shore
66. Vesey
78. Ghost
80. Paterson - 1 star, didn't do anything at all.
83. Murray
86. Parayko
110. Athanasiou - 5 star, great return.
120. Slavin
122. Hudon
130. Hellebuyck
140. McKee - 4 stars, didn't pan out but drafting the nastiest SOB available is always a good thing
151. Colin Miller
156. Connor Brown
161. Dotchin
170. De Haas - 3 stars, solid pick
200. Bodin - 1 star, nah.
202. Gusev

We got 2 players out of it, but really a nothing draft. Couple dmen that would have been nice with Ghost, Parayko, and Slavin. oops.

 

[Leadzedder]

2013

20. Mantha- top 10 talent at the 20 spot = 5 stars
23. Burakovsky
26. Theodore
48. Natasiuk 1 star, swing and a miss
52. Bailey
53. Bowey
58. Bertwozzi - 4 stars, solid pick, even more so cause it was off the board
59. Comrie
66. Pesce
75. Buchnevich
77. Guentzal
79. Janmark - 3 stars, got a hockey player at 79.
80. Duclair
88. Shepyshev
89. Bjorkstrand
109. Pope - 1 star for all these next guys cause can't totally miss on 4 picks like this
118. Fasching
123. Butcher
139. Wheaton - 1
169. McNulty - 1
199. Melen - 1

Again, another 2 players out of a draft. 3 would have been better.

 

[Leadzedder]

2014

15. Larkin 5 star, Larkin looks like a brightest hope going forward
17. Sanheim
25. Pastrnak
29. Kempe
63. Turgeon - 1 star, I know he's starting to show offence and the point of this exercise is to only judge on the pick itself, I just never understood giving up 2 picks for this single pick.
79. Point
106. Ehn - 2 star, he's signed but all these swedes that never amount to anything are stacking up
112. Arvidsson
116. Heinen
136. Perry - 2 star, whatever
166. Vahato - 1 star, whatever
171. Labanc
196. Holmstrom - 4 star, a prospect from this late in the draft
201. Kadeykin - 2 star, was worth a shot, hasn't done anything

One player out of this draft. With a maybe for Turgeon if we need filler later. This draft was suppose to take care of our centre ice depth. Not so much.

I don't know if this draft sucked as much as it looks or if I just got tired of writing down player's names. Probably that.



I'm not gonna bother adding recent drafts as it feels too recent. Plus they get enough conversation around here anyways.

 

[Leadzedder]

Copy and Paste Version

2005
19. Kindl - 1
42. Abdelkader - 5
80. Lofberg - 3
103. Ritola - 3
132. Helm - 5
137. Ryno - 2
151. May - 2
175. Meilonen - 2
214. Stamler - 1

2006
41. Emmerton - 3
47. Matthias - 3
62. Hat Trick Dick - 3
92. Larsson - 4
182. Mursak - 4
191. Oslund - 2
212. Pyett - 2

2007
27. Smith - 4
88. Andersson - 2
148. Cameron - 2
178. Torquato - 2
208. Rufenach - 2

2008
30. McCollum - 1
91. Nicastro - 2
121. Nyquist - 5
151. Cayer - 3
181. Johnston - 2
211. Samuelsson - 2

2009
32. Ferraro - 1
60. Tatar - 5
75. Nestrasil - 3
90. Fournier - 1
150. Jensen - 5
180. Callahan - 3
210. Almquist - 4

2010
21. Sheahan - 1
51. Jarnkrok - 4
81. Aubry - 2
111. Pulkinnen - 4
141. Mrazek - 5
171. Macek - 1
201. Marshall - 3

2011
35. Jurco - 3
48. Ouellet - 2
55. Sproul - 2
85. Quine - 3
115. Tvrdon - 3
145. Hudon - 1
146. Backman - 2
175. Nedomel - 2
205. Marchenko - 5

2012
49. Frk - 4
80. Paterson - 1
110. Athanasiou - 5
140. McKee - 4
170. De Haas - 3
200. Bodin - 1

2013
20. Mantha - 5
48. Natasiuk - 1
58. Bertuzzi - 4
79. Janmark - 3
109. Pope - 1
139. Wheaton - 1
169. McNulty - 1
199. Melen - 1

2014
15. Larkin - 5
63. Turgeon - 1
106. Ehn - 2
136. Perry - 2
166. Vahato - 1
196. Holmstrom - 4
201. Kadeykin - 2

 

[SpookyTsuki]

I don’t know why you think Abdelkader is a core piece and sheahan definetely isn’t a 1. 2 at worst. I kind of skimmed the rest

 

[Leadzedder]

I don’t know why you think Abdelkader is a core piece and sheahan definetely isn’t a 1. 2 at worst. I kind of skimmed the rest

Yeah good input Bruce Clown.

Did you notice Abby was an assistant captain? He's actually been on the team for 10 years and he's signed for another 5 more.

As for Sheahan... yeah, probably a 2. But kind of the point of the ranking is the use of the pick. There was better options. For a 21 OA with what's available is it a 2? Maybe.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Yeah good input Bruce Clown.

Did you notice Abby was an assistant captain? He's actually been on the team for 10 years and he's signed for another 5 more.

As for Sheahan... yeah, probably a 2. But kind of the point of the ranking is the use of the pick. There was better options. For a 21 OA with what's available is it a 2? Maybe.

I don’t see what that has to do with anything, he isn’t a core guy and even if he was that’s a pretty bad core piece. He’s a 4

I’d say for sheahan it doesn’t matter who was available he’s a 3rd line center in the nhl. So it makes him a 2. You could do 1 and a half if you wanted.

The rest are pretty spot on except some guys that really aren’t known should be 1 lower

 

[Leadzedder]

Seems we have different opinions on what core player means. Doesn't matter. Moving on...

As for "for sheahan it doesn’t matter who was available he’s a 3rd line centre"...

I know I've got a lot of words / names in the post but the gist of the post is... what's considered a good pick? So looking at Sheahan, is a 3rd line C a good result for 21st OA for that particular draft, with the players that were still available. I'm not saying he shouldn't be a 2. But the thread is more about draft position vs expectation vs result than just ranking the player.

And yeah, the Abby pick could easily be considered a 4.

 

[Flowah]

Seems we have different opinions on what core player means. Doesn't matter. Moving on...

Yeah.

"Core" are the players you build around. Kane/Toews/Keith. Doughty/Kopitar/Quick. Crosby/Malkin.

Not Justin freaking Abdelkader.

Just because Holland gave him a lifetime contract doesn't make him core.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

A good pick would be a nhl player or a very good ahl player in the later rounds

It varies in the earlier rounds

Sheahan wasn’t a bad pick. He wasn’t good either. Bad picks are you miss and there’s a bunch of other nhlers no matter where (or taking a goalie in the first round)

 

[Leadzedder]

Yeah.

"Core" are the players you build around. Kane/Toews/Keith. Doughty/Kopitar/Quick. Crosby/Malkin.

Not Justin freaking Abdelkader.

Just because Holland gave him a lifetime contract doesn't make him core.

I would delete your comment if i could. Move along if you have nothing to add.

Alright you burnouts, pretend i said regular instead of core. Cause i guess you think core means star.

 

[Henkka]

Good pick is what pans out. It doesn't matter what round it is.

Bad pick is a TOP5 pick, which never sees NHL (excluding unlucky injuries).

 

[Leadzedder]

Good pick is what pans out. It doesn't matter what round it is.

Bad pick is a TOP5 pick, which never sees NHL (excluding unlucky injuries).

Super vague Henkka, so you'd say Kindl was a good pick?

I guess the exercise was....
5 - great pick
4 - good pick
3 - average pick
2 - bad pick
1 - brutal pick

 

[Henkka]

Super vague Henkka, so you'd say Kindl was a good pick?

I guess the exercise was....
5 - great pick
4 - good pick
3 - average pick
2 - bad pick
1 - brutal pick

Kindl is a borderline case. I would say any player who plays over 350 games is a good pick. Kindl played 331 and career ended.

There really is a huge jump in total game amount, if a player can hang out +350 games, they usually have far longer career. If a player can't reach that amount, they just drop off from the train.

Maybe it's somewhat ballpark for GMs.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Why is Smith a 4 and Sheahan a 1 (or 2)? Until last year where it felt apart for Sheahan, he was a more impactful hockey player for the Red Wings than Brendan Smith was. Smith was, for what he could and should have been, a WILD disappointment. An OFD that never potted over 20 points? The only useful thing he ever did for the Wings was land a 2nd and a 3rd round pick. When he was wearing the Winged Wheel he provided nothing but disappointment. All the tools in the world, but the hockey IQ of a particularly stupid rock.

 

[Henkka]

Why is Smith a 4 and Sheahan a 1 (or 2)? Until last year where it felt apart for Sheahan, he was a more impactful hockey player for the Red Wings than Brendan Smith was. Smith was, for what he could and should have been, a WILD disappointment. An OFD that never potted over 20 points? The only useful thing he ever did for the Wings was land a 2nd and a 3rd round pick. When he was wearing the Winged Wheel he provided nothing but disappointment. All the tools in the world, but the hockey IQ of a particularly stupid rock.

He had great advanced stats!

Which did never lead to anything real.... except for an overpayment from New York, both in a trade and a contract after that. Hilarious.

Holland throw a nice anchor in New York.

 

[ChadS]

Here are some stats from 1990 to 2013, might help with what's a "reasonable expectation" for players picked in each round.

Round # -- % played 100 GP -- % became top-6 F/top-4 D/1G -- % became 4th liners or worse

Round 1 -- 71.9% -- 34.1% -- 50.2%
Round 2 -- 33.8% -- 10.4% -- 82.0%
Round 3 -- 28.0% -- 7.5% -- 87.1%
Round 4 -- 19.1% -- 4.3% -- 92.1%
Round 5 -- 14.6% -- 3.7% -- 92.9%
Round 6 -- 15.2% -- 3.3% -- 92.5%
Round 7 -- 8.9% -- 2.1% -- 96.4%
Round 8+ -- 12% -- 3.2% -- 94.4%

First round broken into tiers of 10:
1-10 -- 89.5% -- 53.8% -- 28.6%
11-20 -- 68.6% -- 28.8% -- 56.1%
21-30 -- 57.5% -- 19.6% -- 65.8%

Here's the article with more specific data per pick, I just made the summaries by round:
Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value - Article - TSN

So, if you have an average pick in each round, you would end up with about 1.91 guys with 100 GP and 0.65 top-6/top-4/1G...

 

[jkutswings]

As draft picks, we get to ignore the idiotic contacts that players get signed to.

But even having said that, Abdelkader is definitely not a 5 for where he was selected. I can live with a 4, but the guy's total body of work suggests that he's a middle 6 winger that was stapled to superior talent more often than he deserved. A worthwhile pick, but not at all a 5/5.

I would also raise Sheahan to a 2 and lower Smith to a 3.