Speculation: What top 4D could Anders Lee return?

[72hockey guy]

Tarasenko is legit player, his sh% is a Lil more normal, on top of that tarasenko is a tier or two above lee and 1 year younger. He is also signed for 5 more years where lee is signed for 1. You can't compare the two. On top of that parayko is a teir above the defensemen you mentioned and signed for a long time.

I'm pretty sure easton wouldn't want me to back him up cause I'm more of an in your face type. But he is right. You are over valuing your player who happens to have one if the best centers in the league centering him.

thats wrong lee has had more goals than tarasenko the last two years combined and lee was paid less than half what tarasenko was. so as far as bang for the buck its not even close. yes tarasenko is signed longer, but id be willing to bet Lee signs for less than the 7.5M tarasenko is signed for

 

[EastonBlues22]

ONCE AGAIN THIS IS NOT GRETZKYS NHL

YOU KEEP INSISTING IT IS

SO I GUESS TARASENKO IS TRASH TOO

I WOULDNT BE COMFORTABLE WITH TRYING TO SAY THAT THE THE GAME HASNT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN

DURING KEITH HEY DAY THEIR WERE 19 100 POINT SCORERS IN THE NHL (1985) IN 2018 THERE WERE 3

YOUR ENTIRE ARGUMENT IS **** AND YOU KNOW IT YOURE COMPARING APPLES TO ORANGES..... YOU NEED TO EQUALIZE THE DATA FOR IT TO BE RELEVANT

I'm not insisting anything of the sort, and I'm not calling anyone discussed here "trash."

The game and scoring baselines have changed, sure, but Tkachuk still peaked much higher relative to his peers than Lee ever has. I thought that was obvious given the numbers involved, but apparently it wasn't, so here are the relative rankings of the two compared to their peers:

Tkachuk was the 29th highest scoring forward by points per game over an 8 year stretch from 92-93 to 99-00 (to age 27), minimum 200 games played. His best consecutive two year stretch in there he was 4th in goals per game and 11th in points per game among forwards, minimum 50 games played over that span.

The last two years Lee was 9th in goals per game among forwards, and 77th in points per game, again with a minimum of 50 games played. Lee, of course, has nothing beyond the last two years worth discussing in this context.

If you want to take it down to just one year to compare peaks, Lee finished 12th in goals per game and 68th in points per game among forwards in his best season, minimum 40 games played. Tkachuk beat both those relative rankings handily four straight years (averaging 5th best among forwards in goals per game and 12th best in points per game), from 95-96 through 98-99, again with a minimum of 40 games played each year.

That's four consecutive years better, relative to his peers, than Lee's single best season through the same age. Clearly better in goal scoring, and a huge amount better in putting up points.

Is that equalized enough to demonstrate the point? No matter how you slice it, Lee's peak just doesn't add up, and it's going to have to get a lot better to even come close.

 

[72hockey guy]

I'm not insisting anything of the sort, and I'm not calling anyone discussed here "trash."

The game and scoring baselines have changed, sure, but Tkachuk still peaked much higher relative to his peers than Lee ever has. I thought that was obvious given the numbers involved, but apparently it wasn't, so here are the relative rankings of the two compared to their peers:

Tkachuk was the 29th highest scoring forward by points per game over an 8 year stretch from 92-93 to 99-00 (to age 27), minimum 200 games played. His best consecutive two year stretch in there he was 4th in goals per game and 11th in points per game among forwards, minimum 50 games played over that span.

The last two years Lee was 9th in goals per game among forwards, and 77th in points per game, again with a minimum of 50 games played. Lee, of course, has nothing beyond the last two years worth discussing in this context.

If you want to take it down to just one year to compare peaks, Lee finished 12th in goals per game and 68th in points per game among forwards in his best season, minimum 40 games played. Tkachuk beat both those relative rankings handily four straight years (averaging 5th best among goals per game and 12th best among points per game), from 95-96 through 98-99, again with a minimum of 40 games played each year.

That's four consecutive years better, relative to his peers, than Lee's single best season through the same age. Clearly better in goal scoring, and a huge amount better in putting up points.

Is that equalized enough to demonstrate the point? No matter how you slice it, Lee's peak just doesn't add up, and it's going to have to get a lot better to even come close.

all well and good but they are still different eras, completely different so therefore totally irrelevant to values today

its a specious argument its as i said earlier, if the Islanders were offered the same value (2 1st, a 2nd a 3rd and a player like Tkachuk was then lee would already be gone but trade values arent the same either

no matter how you frame it it isnt apples to apples

Tkatchuk was finished as a 30 goal scorer at 32 perhaps because of Lees later high use pattern he lasts longer especially with how players take care of themselves better nowadays you cant say that wont happen but your entire argument is flawed by your general assumptions

the game and athletes in general have changed and im not even saying lee is equal to what Tkachuk was then because I dont know

but i do know tkachuk couldnt hold a candle to Bossy Lafluer Gretzky Hawerchuk Selanne Dionne in his day, Hell he wasnt even in the conversation.

but just like i dont compare them to todays players because the game is different you shouldnt either

 

[EastonBlues22]

all well and good but they are still different eras, completely different so therefore totally irrelevant to values today

its a specious argument its as i said earlier, if the Islanders were offered the same value (2 1st, a 2nd a 3rd and a player like Tkachuk was then lee would already be gone but trade values arent the same either

no matter how you frame it it isnt apples to apples

Tkatchuk was finished as a 30 goal scorer at 32 perhaps because of Lees later high use pattern he lasts longer especially with how players take care of themselves better nowadays you cant say that wont happen but your entire argument is flawed by your general assumptions

the game and athletes in general have changed and im not even saying lee is equal to what Tkachuk was then because I dont know

but i do know tkachuk couldnt hold a candle to Bossy Lafluer Gretzky Hawerchuk Selanne Dionne in his day, Hell he wasnt even in the conversation.

but just like i dont compare them to todays players because the game is different you shouldnt either

It's not a specious argument. It's just one that you disagree with. This is the accepted way that most people compare players across different eras...by how they relatively stack up to their competition at the time. It's basically the accepted practice in all sports with any sort of meaningful history. Your belief that modern players simply can't be compared against older players in any meaningful way is a minority opinion. Most people believe that they can (with some caveats), and most people do.

It's not like Tkachuk is even that old. His heyday was the mid 1990s to the mid 2000s. It's not like he was playing back in the 1960s or 1970s.

Anyway, if you are going to dismiss any argument based upon stats out of hand because it isn't "apples to apples," and you won't simply take my word for it (having actually watched both players enough to form an opinion), in spite of you apparently not being able to say the same, then what's left to discuss? You think I'm wrong, and I disagree, but there's literally nothing that I can say to defend my opinion that you will listen to, much less say that might actually alter your opinion, so I think we're done here.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Duncan Keith for Anders Lee and islanders 1st?

Keith might not be a norris candidate anymore but surely a second tier no.1 dman at this point.

Real question is the perceived Islanders Window vs what Keith has left in the tank

 

[CREW99AW]

Duncan Keith for Anders Lee and islanders 1st?

Keith might not be a norris candidate anymore but surely a second tier no.1 dman at this point.

Real question is the perceived Islanders Window vs what Keith has left in the tank

are you kidding?
Zero interest in aging stars whose best yrs are well behind them and who have awful contracts.

Seriously would not take that contract off waivers.

 

[CREW99AW]

Yeah, I'm intimately familiar with his game, but thanks.

Tip-ins and rebounds are still subject to the whims of variability, which should not be a surprise since you are literally talking about events that depend on the puck bouncing off things. Tip-ins and rebounds don't defy age, either. Tkachuk was a master of the art, and only 10 of his 18 NHL seasons were over 14%..

I think tip ins and rebounds in the dirty area are sustainable.

 

[72hockey guy]

It's not a specious argument. It's just one that you disagree with. This is the accepted way that most people compare players across different eras...by how they relatively stack up to their competition at the time. It's basically the accepted practice in all sports with any sort of meaningful history. Your belief that modern players simply can't be compared against older players in any meaningful way is a minority opinion. Most people believe that they can (with some caveats), and most people do.

It's not like Tkachuk is even that old. His heyday was the mid 1990s to the mid 2000s. It's not like he was playing back in the 1960s or 1970s.

Anyway, if you are going to dismiss any argument based upon stats out of hand because it isn't "apples to apples," and you won't simply take my word for it (having actually watched both players enough to form an opinion), in spite of you apparently not being able to say the same, then what's left to discuss? You think I'm wrong, and I disagree, but there's literally nothing that I can say to defend my opinion that you will listen to, much less say that might actually alter your opinion, so I think we're done here.

you say that but you refuse to compare him to his ontemporaries. why, could it be because your argument falls apart?

could it be that Lee is right there with Malkin Kucherov Matthews, ahead of your boy Tarasenko, i think thats it exactly. Islander players are used to the lack of respect .

especially from teams like yours who have never won anything despite being around since before we existed

 

[EastonBlues22]

I think tip ins and rebounds in the dirty area are sustainable.

Based upon what?

And, for clarification's sake, at what level?

The average shooting percentage for forwards in recent years is 10.8%. There's a big difference between sustaining a shooting percentage that is notably above average (say, in the 12-14% range, which is 11-30% above average), and sustaining one that's in the 18-19% range, which is 67-76% above average.

 

[EastonBlues22]

you say that but you refuse to compare him to his ontemporaries. why, could it be because your argument falls apart?

could it be that Lee is right there with Malkin Kucherov Matthews, ahead of your boy Tarasenko, i think thats it exactly. Islander players are used to the lack of respect .

especially from teams like yours who have never won anything despite being around since before we existed

I didn't refuse to compare him to his contemporaries. That was part of my original post on the subject, which compared him to two different groups of players...all players since the '67 expansion, and (separately) against all active players.

If the entire body of active players aren't his contemporaries, then who are?

You just didn't like the conclusions that I drew from that comparison, and thus you subsequently discounted it. You can't say I "refuse" to do something that I've done, but that you simply disagreed with.

I have no idea why you keep bringing up "my boy" Tarasenko, like this conversation is somehow related to him in anyway. You're the only one who has mentioned him, and it's pretty weak to keep doing it in some sort attempt to undermine the points I've made, as if I have some ulterior motivations or something.

 

[CREW99AW]

Based upon what?

And, for clarification's sake, at what level?

The average shooting percentage for forwards in recent years is 10.8%. There's a big difference between sustaining a shooting percentage that is nn6otably up otably above average (say, in the 12-14% range, which is 11-30% above average), and sustaining one that's in the 18-19% range, which is 67-76% above average.

Lee is not a perimeter player shying away from contact . So long as he is willing to park in the dirty areas and pay the physical price,he will be in good position for rebounds and tip ins.
No reason he cannot continue put up 30-40 goals.

 

[72hockey guy]

I didn't refuse to compare him to his contemporaries. That was part of my original post on the subject, which compared him to two different groups of players...all players since the '67 expansion, and (separately) against all active players.

If the entire body of active players aren't his contemporaries, then who are?

You just didn't like the conclusions that I drew from that comparison, and thus you subsequently discounted it. You can't say I "refuse" to do something that I've done, but that you simply disagreed with.
.
I have no idea why you keep bringing up "my boy" Tarasenko, like this conversation is somehow related to him in anyway. You're the only one who has mentioned him, and it's pretty weak to keep doing it in some sort attempt to undermine the points I've made, as if I have some ulterior motivations or something.

BECAUSE it obviously is. as soon as you brought up tkachuk i knew it was all a set up to defend Tarasenko, but now i learned, I thought you were more fair minded than you obviously are

a sophmore slump has nothing to do with age. it has to do with regressing to the mean and teams adjusting to a player. it doesnt mater whether your 19 or 49 if you come up at any age you can have success because no one knows you, but once you are known they get to know youre strengths, so you have to adjust thats a sophmore slump and that can happen at any age regardless of how old you are

because adjustments are made on any player

second to teach you something you obviously are clueless about, jerry west widely considered the best shooter in nba history had a career shooting percentage of .474. Shaquille Oneal , has a 582 career shooting percentage and it got better into his late 30s but he wasnt considered a "great Shooter"

why because O'neal like Lee does most of his work in close, so guess what he is likely to keep his higher percentage. Tim Kerr, the closest comparable to Anders Lee in style of play had 5 seasons with a shooting percentage over 20% and a career shooting percentage of 19.4 and like lee he didnt get an early start either

unfortunately he took a beating for it and had to retire early due to the beating he took like bossy but youre entire argument is ****, Lees shot percentage is a function of his style of play just like Shaquille O'neals and Kerrs was was playing in tight close to the goal or the rim depending on the sport. in fact odds say Lees shooting percentage may even go higher

Tarasenko on the other hand has seen his shot percentage fall every single year since he was 22 ans will likely never return to what is was his first season because teams adjusted to him

ive lost all respect i had for you because you didnt even recognize the obvious

 

[Brock Radunske]

Am I honestly reading that NYIs fans are seriously comparing Tarasenko and Lee?
My god....they've finally cracked.

 

[SCMURRAY]

Gardiner or Muzzin

 

[Brock Radunske]

Gardiner or Muzzin

Neither the Leafs or Kings would trade a top-4 defender for a scoring winger who is looking to get paid.
I'd be concerned about his numbers after leaving and getting a big contract, too.*

*Reference: Okoposo, Moulsen, PAP

 

[peterthegreat12]

I'm not sold on Lee, so that is a hard pass.

 

[CREW99AW]

Am I honestly reading that NYIs fans are seriously comparing Tarasenko and Lee?
My god....they've finally cracked.

I don't need to compare him to anyone. 36 goals last season and 40 goals this season speaks for itself.

 

[CREW99AW]

Gardiner or Muzzin

I would not want Gardiner for Lee.

 

[Colt55]

thats wrong lee has had more goals than tarasenko the last two years combined and lee was paid less than half what tarasenko was. so as far as bang for the buck its not even close. yes tarasenko is signed longer, but id be willing to bet Lee signs for less than the 7.5M tarasenko is signed for

I think is laughable how you chose your stats. For starters lee had 2 more goals over last two years but he also had 27 fewer total points. in the same instance let's go back 4-5 years and the younger more consistent tarasenko blows anders lee out of the water and with out a legit #1c center so once again your comparis on is flawed. You sir are graspin at straws.

 

[Colt55]

I don't need to compare him to anyone. 36 goals last season and 40 goals this season speaks for itself.

One year of lee hitting 40 and know you think he is on level of tarasenko. He is one year older and has scored two more goals in last two years lol. If you wanna go back last five years the older anders lee has 47 less goals than tarasenko and tarasenko over that time has 126 more points than lee. There is no comparison

 

[nhlfan1991]

Heard Hamilton or hamonic might be on the block. Could be base of a trade if true

 

[seabass45]

Can I chime in as an Isles fan to say any comparison between Tarasenko and Lee is dumb? Tarasenko is way better. Thanks.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Saying Lee is a comparable/better scorer than Tank (based on the last two years) is like saying Kadri (16/17 + 17/18) is a better goal scorer than Stamkos (15/16* + 17/18)

See how crazy that sounds?




*Stamkos missed most of 2016/17 so I used 15/16 + 17/18

 

[CodeE]

Again, Lee is not comparable to Tarasenko. They score their goals in different ways and are different types of players. Lee's comparables are guys like Hornqvist, Simmonds, JVR, etc.

But, as predicted, someone took a shot at a Blues player and now Blues fans have shown up to defend him. I guess I need to call all those Blues fans insecure and projecting their hangups about Tarasenko onto us. Or maybe they're just defending one of their best players like any team would do and I don't need to write them all off as "insecure".

 

[Colt55]

Saying Lee is a comparable/better scorer than Tank (based on the last two years) is like saying Kadri (16/17 + 17/18) is a better goal scorer than Stamkos (15/16* + 17/18)

See how crazy that sounds?




*Stamkos missed most of 2016/17

I think it's hilarious when people pick and chose stats like that...