Speculation: What top 4D could Anders Lee return?

[ESH]

Lee
Ho-Sang

For

Klefbom
Yamamoto

---

Lee
Ho-Sang
Salo

For

Muzzin
Pearson

?

That trade with the Kings is brutal. I don't see how adding Salo makes up for the difference in ability of Muzzin and Pearson vs Klefbom and Yamamoto

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

That trade with the Kings is brutal. I don't see how adding Salo makes up for the difference in ability of Muzzin and Pearson vs Klefbom and Yamamoto

Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it.

I also took into account cap savings. Lee would be an upgrade on Pearson, and LA drops years of salary.

 

[Jester9881]

Ho-Sang is exactly the type of young dynamic forward LA needs. I would have no interest in trading him right now though.

 

[CREW99AW]

I have looked around the board, but was unable to find your Keith value thread.
Do not know why you are unable to grasp, that the nyi will not be trading a young 40 goal scorer+ top 12 pick for the 34 yr old Keith and his awful contract.

 

[CREW99AW]

Lee
Ho-Sang

For

Klefbom
Yamamoto

---

Lee
Ho-Sang
Salo

For

Muzzin
Pearson

?

Not interested in Pearson or moving JHS.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I don’t want to lose HoSang

 

[HabsQC]

I got this feeling someone will over pay for him in 2019

Maybe the same team that will get Tavares this year.

 

[72hockey guy]

this is why we will draft defensemen everyone wants to give garbage for oneof the top goal scorers in hockey a guy who will sign for in the 5.5 range if garth does his usual job

the lack of respect for islander players is amazing

 

[leeroggy]

The they should sign him long term lock that playa up. Sounds like NYI would be fools to trade a 40goal scorer. So why is there a value thread. Lock him up LOL. Oh yeah cause deep down all this that you all are arguing about could possbily be true and you want to get more than said player is worth.

That's pretty childish. If that's the criteria then 90% of HF threads would go away on the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk threads.

There's something called a HOCKEY TRADE, you know, like Park and Ratelle for Esposito and Vadnais. Or Jones for Johansen if that one is too far back for you.

Hockey trades are to fill needs, not futures, in case you need the reminder. I know you don't, but when you are snotty to me I don't take it lying down.

 

[ndgolden]

Brad Boyes

I suggest a few of you might benefit from actually watching how he scores and from who before assessing what he can and might do going forward in his career. Comparisons to other players such as Tarasenko and others is ridiculous. Saying Lee is reliant on any particular individuals for success is equally so. Saying he does not create offense on his is also admitting you really haven't watched many Islanders games.

 

[Colt55]

That's pretty childish. If that's the criteria then 90% of HF threads would go away on the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk threads.

There's something called a HOCKEY TRADE, you know, like Park and Ratelle for Esposito and Vadnais. Or Jones for Johansen if that one is too far back for you.

Hockey trades are to fill needs, not futures, in case you need the reminder. I know you don't, but when you are snotty to me I don't take it lying down.

You missed my point completely. You are over hyping a player that hit 40 goals at 27 playing with JT and toting a 30% shooting. Nobody is biting on the price you want so it seems your over inflating your player. So at this point if he is so valuable then keep him.

 

[Colt55]

I suggest a few of you might benefit from actually watching how he scores and from who before assessing what he can and might do going forward in his career. Comparisons to other players such as Tarasenko and others is ridiculous. Saying Lee is reliant on any particular individuals for success is equally so. Saying he does not create offense on his is also admitting you really haven't watched many Islanders games.

Brad Boyes

 

[ndgolden]

My guess is the Blues who ranked 24th in scoring this year, certainly could have used a few Brad Boyes........

 

[EastonBlues22]

I dont CLAIM you dont know what youre talking about, I KNOW you dont know what youre talking about

put simply your wrong you added a bunch of extraneous data (All players since 1967) which dont have anything to do with the discussion which taints the conclusion

one of the very first lessons youre taught in statistics is to Identify your sample, which you clearly did not do.. all players do not play as Lee does, neither do All forwards, so much of your sample is diluted by invalid assumptions

to correctly develop a sample you must get rid of the extraneous,but you didnt even try, now if you had limited your sample to all goals scored from within 5 feet for example you would find shooting percentages to be higher than from 20 feet, its the enire theory behind hot zones or high danger areas, but you deliberately left that out

i didnt just use Tim Kerr, he was merely the closest similarity score to Lee I also used the historical data on hot zones and danger areas on a decade by decade basis to try to account for changes in the game itself, as anyone with a statistical background would do.

That is why you have to remove the extraneous from your sample the closer you can get to a proper sample the higher the Validity coefficient

I was for 23 years one of the IRS leading Tax specialists and as a function of my Position I had to understand not only basic statistics but also validity coefficients and how to separate the germain from the extraneous, just like you dont compare 7'3 centers to 5 '10 point guards you dont compare those who do their scoring from in close to those who score from outside, Shooting percentages from different areas have wildly different rates

so youre all players approach tptally ignores that and will lead to invalid results. which is why I know you dont have a clue about what you were talking about, you didnt even try to limit your sample to like kind data. you left it overly broad and vectorless

Tim Kerr is the closest similarity score to Lee by what measure? He's not by Hockey-References similarity scores. Feel free to cite your source.

There's no data source that tracks an individual's shooting percentages by distance from net...and certainly nothing historical. They didn't even track shot distance from the net all that long ago, so I'd love to know where you're getting all this "decade by decade" historical data on hot zones and danger areas. Feel free to cite the numbers and source for either of those as well.

Also, you do know that Anders Lee's average shot distance is over 20', right? Just checking, since you seem to think that "limiting my sample to all goals scored within 5'," however you're supposed to go about doing that, is a good idea for some reason.

Do you know the historical or current shooting percentage for all shots taken by "net front guys" (because you're determined to account for playing style as well) within 20' of the net so we can compare Lee's shooting percentage the last two years to that number? Of course you don't. No one does. You can't accuse me of "deliberately leaving out" data that we don't have access to.

You keep complaining about me not "limiting my sample" and "not accounting for changes in the game itself," and keep ignoring that there's literally no active player in the game who is currently sustaining the sort of shooting percentage you're suggesting Lee can sustain. You can't account for changes in the game any more strictly than by limiting the comparison pool to active players only, and it doesn't matter how you limit the sample in terms of player inclusion if there is literally no one in the league that is doing it.

How about a change of pace and you plop down some statistical analysis to discuss since you have such firm ideas about how it should be done? Not a one person hand-picked case study comparison, but some actual hard numbers drawn from a decent sample size that you collect, calculate, and are subsequently able to justify? That might actually add something interesting to the conversation, if you can produce it, and perhaps even elevate me from my woefully ignorant state.

I look forward to discussing your shooting percentage analysis of a clearly identified sample of net-front players, from suitably relevant eras, based on their shot distances from the net, in the near-ish future.

 

[CREW99AW]

You missed my point completely. You are over hyping a player that hit 40 goals at 27 playing with JT and toting a 30% shooting. Nobody is biting on the price you want so it seems your over inflating your player. So at this point if he is so valuable then keep him.

A 30% shooting percentage?
Lie much?

Anders Lee Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[boredmale]

I am surprised their isn't more people on the ant-side mentioning the fact Lee is a UFA next season. Just going on historical precident trades like Spezza and Kesler might be more inline with what the Islanders can get for Lee(yes I know both players I mentioned where considered better players when traded but they also had a limited NTC)

 

[leeroggy]

You missed my point completely. You are over hyping a player that hit 40 goals at 27 playing with JT and toting a 30% shooting. Nobody is biting on the price you want so it seems your over inflating your player. So at this point if he is so valuable then keep him.

Your credibility just went down the drain.

 

[HyeDray]

The point of moving Lee would be to address the team's biggest need, while keeping both 1st rounders.

Lee is a top line player. As such a top line player on D should be in the return — or someone damn close to it. OEL fits the bill. To me that would be a straight out 1 for 1 hockey deal. If the Isles wanted to add a mid round pick to sweeten it, OK... but realistically, Lee has been a consistent player.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Lee is a top line player. As such a top line player on D should be in the return — or someone damn close to it. OEL fits the bill. To me that would be a straight out 1 for 1 hockey deal. If the Isles wanted to add a mid round pick to sweeten it, OK... but realistically, Lee has been a consistent player.

Please, please, please make a thread thread saying this on the main board. I need something to kill the time until tonight

 

[Colt55]

My guess is the Blues who ranked 24th in scoring this year, certainly could have used a few Brad Boyes........

Nope he had two good years with Paul kariya and then went down hill from there. Also FYI might help to not have so many injuries to key players in a single year. On top of that The power play was awful. This was a transition year. Armstrong came out and said it before season started.

 

[Colt55]

Your credibility just went down the drain.

it was a freaking typo meant to hit the 2. These things happen when you respond on a phone.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Realistically, the best comparable for this type of player with that type of production getting traded is James Neal when he was in Pittsburgh.

James Neal - 24-26 years
80 gp 40 g 81 pts
40 gp 20 g 36 pts
59 gp 27 g 61 pts

Anders Lee - 25-27 years
80 gp 15 g 36 pts
81 gp 34 g 52 pts
82 gp 40 g 62 pts

So now that his comparable* has been established, the question is....who has an available Hornqvist-level player?








*(despite Neal having much better #s)

 

[57special]

Lee is a top line player. As such a top line player on D should be in the return — or someone damn close to it. OEL fits the bill. To me that would be a straight out 1 for 1 hockey deal. If the Isles wanted to add a mid round pick to sweeten it, OK... but realistically, Lee has been a consistent player.

?????

And I'm a big fan of Anders. He played youth and HS hockey at the local HS. Great football player, also. Tons of intangibles...the guy is a winner, and always has been.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Lee is a top line player. As such a top line player on D should be in the return — or someone damn close to it. OEL fits the bill. To me that would be a straight out 1 for 1 hockey deal. If the Isles wanted to add a mid round pick to sweeten it, OK... but realistically, Lee has been a consistent player.

All "top line" players are not of equal value. That's like saying since Jake Guentzel plays on the top line for the Pens, then I'm sure Tampa would do a Hedman for Guentzel trade.

 

[seabass45]

Isles fan chiming in once again... no, Anders Lee wouldn't fetch OEL either. Let's move on from that.