What Number D is Morgan Rielly THIS SEASON?

[zeke]

#1 on one of the worst defensive teams in the league. He is a #1 like Phaneuf was.

But, he is better than that. Top 30D? Maybe. Probably even. But far from being a good #1 SO FAR.

leafs are 12th in goals against per game. one spot behind the lightning.

 

[zeke]

Anderson has been great. Come on, you know this.

not even top 10 in save percentage.

And the leafs have been better with McElhinney in net.

 

[zeke]

Um have you seen the Leafs HDSCA numbers?

yep. the leafs are 16th in high danger chances against 5v5, one spot behind Nashville. 11th in high danger chances against on the PK.

 

[wintersej]

not even top 10 in save percentage.

And the leafs have been better with McElhinney in net.

I know you are a smart poster. You know the level of shot quality he has faced and you know comparing back up goalie stats to the starter is fraught with issues. Hate it when smart posters get selective with stats to satisfy a narrative to support their team...and they know exactly what they are glossing over. It’s tiring to counterpoint, but if no one does it leads to all kinds of false narratives and makes reading on here painful.

 

[zeke]

Fair point, but I'd argue those teams rely far less on their goaltending than Toronto. Andersen should be a Vezina finalist for how well he's been playing considering how often the Leafs leave him out to dry, it's insane how many times he bails out the team every night.

Andy isn't even top 10 in save percentage.

And if anything, the leafs style boosts his save percentage, as they give up lots of shots but not a lot of high danger chances.

And the Leafs do better with their backup in net.

 

[zeke]

I know you are a smart poster. You know the level of shot quality he has faced and you know comparing back up goalie stats to the starter is fraught with issues. Hate it when smart posters get selective with stats to satisfy a narrative to support their team...and they know exactly what they are glossing over. It’s tiring to counterpoint, but if no one does it leads to all kinds of false narratives and makes reading on here painful.

yes, I do know.

Andersen's shot quality is actually easier than most goalies, not tougher. He has a high low danger shot percentage.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

Fair point, but I'd argue those teams rely far less on their goaltending than Toronto. Andersen should be a Vezina finalist for how well he's been playing considering how often the Leafs leave him out to dry, it's insane how many times he bails out the team every night.

I understand but our career backup goalie has been better than Andersen this season. So maybe, we just have a good team.

 

[wintersej]

yes, I do know.

Andersen's shot quality is actually easier than most goalies, not tougher. He has a high low danger shot percentage.

4th worst Corsi allowed per 60 in Toronto. 5th worst xGA. 16th actual GA/60. Andersen has been amazing.

 

[LeafFever]

#1 D without a doubt. He's terrific.

 

[tacogeoff]

Solid #2. he is steadily rising.

 

[DickSmehlik]

Even split between 1 and 2.

I guess we can call him a 1.5 defenseman.

 

[6ix]

He’s progressed into a low end #1 this year. Still a good consistent progression every year.

 

[M2Beezy]

#1 AINEC imo every time i watched him this year came a way more impressed then last year. If its true hes a bottom half #1 and last year he was a #2 thats a hell of a progress that Leafs fans gotta be happy about. Still young and skys the limit hopefully he comes home when he hits the UFA status

 

[Martin Skoula]

4th worst Corsi allowed per 60 in Toronto. 5th worst xGA. 16th actual GA/60. Andersen has been amazing.

Why is our backup doing so well? 10-4-1 with a .935 sv% and 2.09 GAA are some elite numbers. I guess he's finally blossoming from his career .908 Sv% at the fresh young age of 34.

Who do you think he's signing his 7x7 contract with this summer?

 

[howkie]

nr 44??

 

[wintersej]

Why is our backup doing so well? 10-4-1 with a .935 sv% and 2.09 GAA are some elite numbers. I guess he's finally blossoming from his career .908 Sv% at the fresh young age of 34.

Who do you think he's signing his 7x7 contract with this summer?

It depends on who doesn't sign Carter Hutton. Are you kidding me?

Are you arguing here that the Leafs have some great defensive team or are you arguing Anderson isn't that good?

Backups always have a high variance in numbers. They have small sample size issues and often play against worst teams. Nevermind the fact that they get to rest a lot more. Comparing the starter to the backups numbers has always been, for any team, comparing apples to couches.

I don't understand why its hard to say that the Leafs have great offense, good goaltending and are a bit scary on the D end.

 

[member 147413]

Among #1Ds, Rielly has the 4th highest percentage of D zone starts, while having the highest level of competition and maintains a very high corsi rel.

That's ignoring the fact that he will finish the year with close to 50 points. He's a #1D this year or any year moving forward.

But he’s -5

 

[zeke]

I don't understand why its hard to say that the Leafs have great offense, good goaltending and are a bit scary on the D end.

and I don't understand why its so hard to admit that the Leafs aren't bad defensively.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

Why is our backup doing so well? 10-4-1 with a .935 sv% and 2.09 GAA are some elite numbers. I guess he's finally blossoming from his career .908 Sv% at the fresh young age of 34.

Who do you think he's signing his 7x7 contract with this summer?

Nope, you're wrong. We better give curtis mcelhinney a 10.5 x 8 year deal. After all, those numbers are even better than Price.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

and I don't understand why its so hard to admit that the Leafs aren't bad defensively.

This stuff is freakin' measurable. You provided the stats that show exactly where the Leafs are in terms shot quality against. How is anyone arguing against a measurable stat?

 

[wintersej]

This stuff is freakin' measurable. You provided the stats that show exactly where the Leafs are in terms shot quality against. How is anyone arguing against a measurable stat?

They are bottom 5 in shots allowed. Bottom 5 in expected goals allowed. Measurable?

 

[Heldig]

When looking at some factors this season Toronto has had more injuries to players like Matthews, Andersen and Zaitsev, so no one can say they were lucky to be a healthy team like they were last season. However once all is set and done they are going to finish with a better record this season and if you want to include their head to head games with Tampa they match up just as well with them. They lost the first game 2-0, won the next 4-3 and lost the most recent game 4-3 in a shootout.

Uhhh pretty sure they are one of the HEALTHIEST teams this season?
NHL Injury Viz: 2017/18 team injury breakdowns (through 16 March)

As to OP I think Reilly has clearly established himself as a #1 D.

 

[wintersej]

Reilly gets Vlasic like deployments. Its the wrong role for him. The Leafs can't play him in the right role because they don't have a good defense.

In that Vlasic like deployment, Reilly in BOTTOM 25% of the 200 d-men with at least 500 minutes in Corsi allowed per 60. 170th out of 200 in GA/60. 196 out of 200 in xGA/60.

Thats a #1D? Can I smoke some of that? That is BAD. Although, I guess in some fans above eyes that is very good or something? I'm really confused about the logic to be honest.

He should be playing on an offensive pairing getting easier matchups. Kinda like Duncan Keith when Hjarlmasson and Oduya took the hard minutes and Keith went out and moved the puck and put up points. And thats how I see him. A poorman's Keith. This defensive time is good for his long term development, but as long as Gardner and Reilly are playing on different pairings in the top 4, someone is going to get misused.

edit: conversely, it is very impressive that despite those tough deployments, Reilly is still putting up five on five points. Almost as many as noted elite #1D Deryk Engelland!

 

[zeke]

Reilly gets Vlasic like deployments. Its the wrong role for him. The Leafs can't play him in the right role because they don't have a good defense.

Rielly is crushing it in that role.

Vlasic, on the other hand, is getting buried in it.

Rielly: 51.7cf% (+2.7rel)
Vlasic: 49.1cf% (-3.0rel)

Rielly is killing in against extreme elite matchup usage - the kind of usage that even the best dmen in the league get buried under.

The kid is incredible.

 

[zeke]

They are bottom 5 in shots allowed. Bottom 5 in expected goals allowed. Measurable?

Do you agree that the Leafs are - bar none - the best offensive team in the league?