NotProkofievian
Registered User
- Nov 29, 2011
- 24,476
- 24,599
What then? What's the plan? Since we now have our elite talent - the ultimate purpose of any rebuild - do we then do everything to get Tavares/ROR, forget rebuilding/retooling, and go for it immediately? What if Tavares decides that he'll stick it our in NYI? Do we still attempt to compete immediately?
I'm going to argue a different perspective. The one and major criticism of the tanking strategy that has been elucidated on this board is ''you have to get lucky in order for it to work.'' It's not enough to get a high pick, you have to get the highest pick at the right time in order for the rebuild strategy to really pay off. However, if, on the 28th, we win the right to select Dahlin this June, we already have that. Our full-blown rebuild would answer the anti-tanker criticism from its very inception. The only thing that can happen from that point on is further success. Rather than hoping to select one of Dahlin, Hughes, or Lafreniere, we'd be hoping to select one of Hughes or Lafreniere in addition to Dahlin. In other words, the expected value of our rebuild in the wake of getting Dahlin is way higher than its expected value right now.
If we win the right to select Dahlin he instantaneously becomes our core, the purpose and essence of our team, and defines what success will mean for, and how its achieved by our club. He's our Matthews, our McDavid, our Laine. But who's our Marner/Nylander? Who's our Draisaitl? Who's our Scheifele? Unless we're able to sign Tavares, I don't see who that is. I think we would therefore have to decide to make a run at Hughes and Lafreniere.
I'm going to argue a different perspective. The one and major criticism of the tanking strategy that has been elucidated on this board is ''you have to get lucky in order for it to work.'' It's not enough to get a high pick, you have to get the highest pick at the right time in order for the rebuild strategy to really pay off. However, if, on the 28th, we win the right to select Dahlin this June, we already have that. Our full-blown rebuild would answer the anti-tanker criticism from its very inception. The only thing that can happen from that point on is further success. Rather than hoping to select one of Dahlin, Hughes, or Lafreniere, we'd be hoping to select one of Hughes or Lafreniere in addition to Dahlin. In other words, the expected value of our rebuild in the wake of getting Dahlin is way higher than its expected value right now.
If we win the right to select Dahlin he instantaneously becomes our core, the purpose and essence of our team, and defines what success will mean for, and how its achieved by our club. He's our Matthews, our McDavid, our Laine. But who's our Marner/Nylander? Who's our Draisaitl? Who's our Scheifele? Unless we're able to sign Tavares, I don't see who that is. I think we would therefore have to decide to make a run at Hughes and Lafreniere.