What if we get Dahlin?

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NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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What then? What's the plan? Since we now have our elite talent - the ultimate purpose of any rebuild - do we then do everything to get Tavares/ROR, forget rebuilding/retooling, and go for it immediately? What if Tavares decides that he'll stick it our in NYI? Do we still attempt to compete immediately?

I'm going to argue a different perspective. The one and major criticism of the tanking strategy that has been elucidated on this board is ''you have to get lucky in order for it to work.'' It's not enough to get a high pick, you have to get the highest pick at the right time in order for the rebuild strategy to really pay off. However, if, on the 28th, we win the right to select Dahlin this June, we already have that. Our full-blown rebuild would answer the anti-tanker criticism from its very inception. The only thing that can happen from that point on is further success. Rather than hoping to select one of Dahlin, Hughes, or Lafreniere, we'd be hoping to select one of Hughes or Lafreniere in addition to Dahlin. In other words, the expected value of our rebuild in the wake of getting Dahlin is way higher than its expected value right now.

If we win the right to select Dahlin he instantaneously becomes our core, the purpose and essence of our team, and defines what success will mean for, and how its achieved by our club. He's our Matthews, our McDavid, our Laine. But who's our Marner/Nylander? Who's our Draisaitl? Who's our Scheifele? Unless we're able to sign Tavares, I don't see who that is. I think we would therefore have to decide to make a run at Hughes and Lafreniere.
 

WeThreeKings

Habs cup - its in the BAG
Sep 19, 2006
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I can't think of one team that won the Stanley Cup with an elite defender and no first line center. There's also the fact that while Dahlin is very much an elite talent, I can't think of one defenseman who has come into the league and had the success of a McDavid or Matthews that early. You are still looking at a 2-3 year window for him to fully hit his stride in the NHL. That's another 2-3 seasons of wear and tear on Carey Price and Shea Weber, more concussions for Andrew Shaw, more miles on Gallagher's body.

I don't think anything changes in this light. The right move is to trade everyone you can for assets and keep the younger players like Hudon, Lehkonen, Galchenyuk, Drouin, let them develop and support them with veterans on short term deals who can be used for draft pick currency at the deadline.
 

417

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Feb 20, 2003
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What then? What's the plan? Since we now have our elite talent - the ultimate purpose of any rebuild - do we then do everything to get Tavares/ROR, forget rebuilding/retooling, and go for it immediately? What if Tavares decides that he'll stick it our in NYI? Do we still attempt to compete immediately?
Well winning the lottery is a game changer for the Habs, that much is fact. It would solve a pressing need, on multi-levels (partner for Weber, skills & mobility on the back end).

I don't think it changes things as it relates to John Tavares or any other center that may be available...the Habs are going to have to be aggressive either in free agency or the trade market to fill this need. There's no other way around it.

This is true whether or not next year ultimately ends up as a rebuilding/retooling year...

If Tavares ends up staying in NYI or signing elsewhere, I don't think it should change the focus for next year.

I'm going to argue a different perspective. The one and major criticism of the tanking strategy that has been elucidated on this board is ''you have to get lucky in order for it to work.'' It's not enough to get a high pick, you have to get the highest pick at the right time in order for the rebuild strategy to really pay off. However, if, on the 28th, we win the right to select Dahlin this June, we already have that. Our full-blown rebuild would answer the anti-tanker criticism from its very inception. The only thing that can happen from that point on is further success. Rather than hoping to select one of Dahlin, Hughes, or Lafreniere, we'd be hoping to select one of Hughes or Lafreniere in addition to Dahlin. In other words, the expected value of our rebuild in the wake of getting Dahlin is way higher than its expected value right now.

If we win the right to select Dahlin he instantaneously becomes our core, the purpose and essence of our team, and defines what success will mean for, and how its achieved by our club. He's our Matthews, our McDavid, our Laine. But who's our Marner/Nylander? Who's our Draisaitl? Who's our Scheifele? Unless we're able to sign Tavares, I don't see who that is. I think we would therefore have to decide to make a run at Hughes and Lafreniere.
I think we should worry less about trying to emulate other teams, and just build our own identity...

Right now what this team & organization needs the most is a big time influx of talent/skill at both the NHL & prospect levels. That means at this draft, if we were fortunate enough to land Dahlin, we have to also get to work in the 2nd round. That's another opportunity to add some more potential skill to our lineup over the next few years.

Look at the Boston Bruins...they're getting contributions from players in their lineup who were picked at different spots, you got late 1st round picks like Pastarnak, mid 1st round picks like DeBrusk & McAvoy, 4th round pick like Heinen, Donato was in the 2nd round, etc, etc.
 

justafan22

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417

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I can't think of one team that won the Stanley Cup with an elite defender and no first line center. There's also the fact that while Dahlin is very much an elite talent, I can't think of one defenseman who has come into the league and had the success of a McDavid or Matthews that early. You are still looking at a 2-3 year window for him to fully hit his stride in the NHL. That's another 2-3 seasons of wear and tear on Carey Price and Shea Weber, more concussions for Andrew Shaw, more miles on Gallagher's body.
while this is true - it could potentially be a bit different if the Habs were to land Dahlin, since he'd likely be mentored by Shea Weber..the same way Sergachev is mentored by Hedman & Strahlman. It's a good situation for him to start off, there will be 'less' (relatively speaking) pressure playing next to Shea Weber then there would be in another situation.

I don't think anything changes in this light. The right move is to trade everyone you can for assets and keep the younger players like Hudon, Lehkonen, Galchenyuk, Drouin, let them develop and support them with veterans on short term deals who can be used for draft pick currency at the deadline.
When you have those 4...add Scherbak potentially to this group, and IMO, I think you have to try to flip one of those guys for a similarly valued player, of same age, but who either plays a different position or style.

It's too much of the same IMO, too much redundancy with the Habs current players.
 

Yoshidas Island

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Jan 2, 2015
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I can't think of one team that won the Stanley Cup with an elite defender and no first line center. There's also the fact that while Dahlin is very much an elite talent, I can't think of one defenseman who has come into the league and had the success of a McDavid or Matthews that early. You are still looking at a 2-3 year window for him to fully hit his stride in the NHL. That's another 2-3 seasons of wear and tear on Carey Price and Shea Weber, more concussions for Andrew Shaw, more miles on Gallagher's body.

I don't think anything changes in this light. The right move is to trade everyone you can for assets and keep the younger players like Hudon, Lehkonen, Galchenyuk, Drouin, let them develop and support them with veterans on short term deals who can be used for draft pick currency at the deadline.
What's your view on Petry? Keep him for the veteran presence or trade?
 

NotProkofievian

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
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24,599
Well winning the lottery is a game changer for the Habs, that much is fact. It would solve a pressing need, on multi-levels (partner for Weber, skills & mobility on the back end).

I don't think it changes things as it relates to John Tavares or any other center that may be available...the Habs are going to have to be aggressive either in free agency or the trade market to fill this need. There's no other way around it.

This is true whether or not next year ultimately ends up as a rebuilding/retooling year...

If Tavares ends up staying in NYI or signing elsewhere, I don't think it should change the focus for next year.

The reason that I draw a distinction between going after Tavares and the rebuild is that we have to sell Tavares on the idea of playing with us. We can't really have both. Tavares here also represents a general plan: go for it immediately through trade and free agency. He just represents the best possible outcome of that.

So are you saying we should go for it immediately via trade and free agency, and not attempt to draft high in the next couple years?

I think we should worry less about trying to emulate other teams, and just build our own identity...

Right now what this team & organization needs the most is a big time influx of talent/skill at both the NHL & prospect levels. That means at this draft, if we were fortunate enough to land Dahlin, we have to also get to work in the 2nd round. That's another opportunity to add some more potential skill to our lineup over the next few years.

Look at the Boston Bruins...they're getting contributions from players in their lineup who were picked at different spots, you got late 1st round picks like Pastarnak, mid 1st round picks like DeBrusk & McAvoy, 4th round pick like Heinen, Donato was in the 2nd round, etc, etc.

It's not really an emulation of other teams, it's an evaluation of our team with respect to the emerging elite young talent. The goal should be to have the most possible. The question is, how do we do that?

Of course, we should attempt to draft the next Pastrnak with our 2nds. That's not really a strategy though. That's a wishful outcome. A strategy would be to move our older core players for draft picks and prospects, or trade draft picks and prospects for NHL ready assets now. A strategy would be ''let's draft more, and higher'' or ''less, and later.'' So, what strategy should we adopt if we draft Dahlin?
 
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Habs

We should have drafted Michkov
Feb 28, 2002
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Sadly there is a question nobody in Montreal management knows either, it changes daily.
 

417

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Feb 20, 2003
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The reason that I draw a distinction between going after Tavares and the rebuild is that we have to sell Tavares on the idea of playing with us. We can't really have both. Tavares here also represents a general plan: go for it immediately through trade and free agency. He just represents the best possible outcome of that.
Well yes - it would be difficult to sell the idea of signing with the Montreal Canadiens to John Tavares, while also making moves to deliberately tank.

So agreed there.

So are you saying we should go for it immediately via trade and free agency, and not attempt to draft high in the next couple years?
I think they need to address center ice regardless of what the outcome of next year will be...and I also don't think the Habs are going to deliberately put themselves into a position to draft high for the next couple of years.

This team is going to want to compete as soon as they can, which is fine, but IMO, it's not going to happen over 1 offseason.

But they can at least take steps towards that end.

It's not really an emulation of other teams, it's an evaluation of our team with respect to the emerging elite young talent. The goal should be to have the most possible. The question is, how do we do that?
Only way to do it is via draft...I see no other way.

Of course, we should attempt to draft the next Pastrnak with our 2nds. That's not really a strategy though. That's a wishful outcome. A strategy would be to move our older core players for draft picks and prospects, or trade draft picks and prospects for NHL ready assets now. A strategy would be ''let's draft more, and higher'' or ''less, and later.'' So, what strategy should we adopt if we draft Dahlin?
That's not what I was suggesting...

I was just saying, talent can be found at different spots in the draft...the Habs need to do a better job of finding talent at all levels of the draft - that means no more Crisp, Pezzetta, Koberstein, Bradley and Staum's of this world in mid-rounds. No more of these off the board picks drafted purely for immeasurable intangibles.

A strategy for me would definitely be "draft more", accumulate as many draft picks as you can, like they did this year. They're likely going to trade Max Pacioretty this summer, that's another opportunity to add a potential impact player that either fits in your lineup in the future, or that has enough profile that you can trade for a more established player now.
 
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habsgirl5000

Registered User
Jul 15, 2017
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Say we get the first overall, what offer would make you consider trading the pick?

knowing MB he would trade that pick for somebody like JVR.....then play JVR as #1 C

:sarcasm: (but not really)

but in all seriousness....if we did get dahlin, that is even MORE of a reason to start a rebuilt right away, if you don't, then dahlin will just become another PK subban, we didnt win anything with him either
 
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DramaticGloveSave

Voice of Reason
Apr 17, 2017
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Winning the lottery definitely changes things. I think if you get Dahlin, we'd be fools to not at least court Tavares and try to have a few runs. Trading Price and Weber right now will be dificult, at least in terms of getting value back. I think we're better off hoping for returns to form.

Winning 2 lottery's in a row just seems far fetched.
 

Andrei79

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
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Adding a (likely) generational player like Dahlin won't fix the systematic issues on the team. You're still banking that one player, an 18 year old defenseman at that, will show enough talent and resilience over multiple 80 game seasons+playoffs to overcome a lack of depth and deficient team culture.

Even if you do go for it, you're again hoping in a multitude of luck occurences and very specific scenarios to happen in the short term, which seems to include a potential O'reilly trade and a Tavares signing.

If you're playing the odds, your chances of eventually succeeding by positioning yourself to get a few top 10 picks, along with multiple draft picks and futures from selling off assets, seems to be better than banking on Bergevin fixing deep rooted issues he created in a trade and FA market he himself says has less to offer every year. We had a chance to go down that path in 2009 and we missed it. Imagine having added a few top 5-10 picks + 1st/2nd rounders to Subban/Price/Pacioretty and McDonagh.
 

Price is Wright

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Feb 5, 2010
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People keep talking about Dahlin like he's ready today to play 20+ minutes against the best lines in the east on the road. Kid is gonna take time to get there.

Say we get the first overall, what offer would make you consider trading the pick?

To Vancouver
1st Overall
Carey Price
Shea Weber

To Montreal
6th Overall
1st Round Pick 2019
Elias Pettersen
Adam Gaudette
Olli Juolevi
Michael DiPietro
 

Laurentide

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Mar 24, 2018
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Edmonton, Alberta
Sweet loved Hammer
I didn't hate him but would you burn a 1st overall pick on Roman Hamrlik like Tampa did? Or on Rick Green like Washington did years ago? Or 1980 when Dave Babych was taken 2nd overall by the Jets ahead of Denis Savard? All three of those guys were solid defensemen who had long careers but they weren't first round material, let alone 1st overall material.
 
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