What do ur leafs look like next year , if u were Lou

Havoc

Registered User
Jul 25, 2009
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I wouldn't change much to be honest. Keep letting the kids grow. I think all of Matthews, Marner and Nylander will be at least PPG players next season. Go the Jets route and get better through drafting and development.

Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Johnsson - Kadri - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - Brown
Leivo - Beagle - Grundstrom

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Folin

Marner will be the only PPG of the three with these lines. I hope they don't do to Matthews what they did to Sundin. Need to get this guy a scoring winger if they're taking Nylander off his wing.
 

Jozay

Registered User
Jul 9, 2012
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Toronto
Marner will be the only PPG of the three with these lines. I hope they don't do to Matthews what they did to Sundin. Need to get this guy a scoring winger if they're taking Nylander off his wing.
They need to pair matthews up with a play maker.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
39,884
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They need to pair matthews up with a play maker.

He is both, they can do either and he will be fine. Hyman Matthews Kapanen would be what I expect to work best but Babcock is running backwards lines I think to limit the production in most cases.

Hyman - Limits scoring (If he was a natural goal scorer he could have had 25goals by now with all the chances he blows.

Matthew Nylander - Mostly about keeping Nylander off C which will drastically reduce his value. Both love to have the puck and Nylander said in an interview that Matthews chews up a lot of space out there.

Marner - For the most part with Bozak who is a Right shot. That means two guys sticks in parallel going up the ice and limits Marners ability to set up Bozak for a shot.

Kadri - Left shot works well with Marner because they are naturally set for the pass and Marner will find Kadri.

Anyways there are lots of these examples of strange Babcock setups that I feel are only to limit production for contract purposes but being sold on reasons of team defense etc.

Key: LH Left handed, RH Right handed, G grinder, PS Play-maker or Shooter

Hyman-LH-G Matthews-LH Kapanen-RH-PS
JVR-LH-PS Nylander-RH Brown-RH-G

Reason why Hyman works as a grinder is because he isn't very good at play-making anyways and what he can, often ends up on the weak side of AM34's stick so he is forced usually to dish to Nylander.
 

Hockey Crazy

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Dec 30, 2008
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Yes since we have 3 ****ing kids due to take up pretty much all that cap space on their new contracts so signing a JVR for the same contract as a Marner/Nylander would get who wouldn't be able to fit in the cap later is dumb as hell
I think wasting a year where you could be a cup favourite is way worse. I’m saying they should look at short term contracts - plus Matthews + marner will not take 20 mil. Assuming the cap goes up both years and you’re looking at around 82, that lineup you posted only takes up 60 plus gardiner expires at the same time as the kids.
 

Albert Iafrate

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Feb 29, 2008
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I prefer Nylander on the wing. I think with the insane depth we have at forward, it would be good to have two guys on each line that could play center/take draws, matched up with a true winger, preferably someone who has a motor who can get the puck to the other two. This works out as Matthews-Nylander, Kadri-Marleau, Aaltonen-Komarov. So if want to play this model all the way down, and we let Bozak walk, we need to sign/trade for a youngish center that is cost controlled, and a center/winger hybrid with size.

People on here have suggested RNH, but I think of him as damaged goods (just my personal opinion). If I was going to target someone from Edmonton it would be Ryan Strome, mostly because he has some potential (face it, his whole career has been in two of the most poorly run organizations in hockey), and he could play a depth role if his ceiling wasn't reached. He could be the C/RW guy who plays mostly RW. Plus I think Edmonton might want to move away from that, being that it appears from the outside as a "bad" deal. Send them Brown for Strome.

Then go big, sign Tavares to play with Marner. At this point, Leivo becomes expendable, package him with Zaitsev and get a guy like Hjalmarsson from Arizona.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Tavares - Marner
Kapanen - Kadri - Strome
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Komarov

Reilly - Hjalmarsson
Gardiner - Hainsey
Dermott - Holl
Borgman
 

Willchel Marlynder

(philer bozel)
Jul 15, 2010
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If I was Dubas*** since he's taking over

Johnsson-Nylander-Kapanen
Marleau-Matthews-Marner
Leivo/Hyman-Kadri-Brown
Leivo/Hyman-Aaltonen-Whoever

Rielly-Dermott
Gardiner-Hainsey
Borgman-Zaitsev

Andersen-Pickard

In other words, pretty much what my post TD roster would've been since I would've sold UFAs

I'm a fan although, unless Hyman develops substantially and Brown returns back to form that third line has potential to be a bit disappointing on the offensive side. They have potential to be amazing defensively though.
 

MR4

Registered User
Oct 20, 2014
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I'm a fan although, unless Hyman develops substantially and Brown returns back to form that third line has potential to be a bit disappointing on the offensive side. They have potential to be amazing defensively though.
I'm essentially projecting that line to replicate the Komarov-Kadri-Brown line that was so successful for us last year. But the Leivo/Hyman thing was saying maybe Leivo gets the 3rd line LW when it needs more offense and Hyman when it needs defense
 

Americanadian

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Sep 11, 2016
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Marner and Nylander slot between Ehlers and Pasta ($6-$6.7m). Ehlers < Mitch/Nylander <= Pasta. Cut and dry IMO.

Well as far as Marleau leaving goes, that is what we have Hunter for. If he hasn't drafted a player that can replace Marleau in another season then he hasn't done his job and you have to go UFA or trade for a replacement. For what Marleau is doing on the ice, don't think it will be hard to find a suitable replacement. As far as Hainsey goes, you have to think Lily will be ready when Hainsey walks.

I don't have all the answers to things a year plus down the road but IMO we can make it work whether we sign JT or not.

In what world are Marner and Nylander hands down better than Ehlers? I love the leafs, I love the big 3 but Ehlers is a phenomenal player and his numbers in his contract year were better than Nylanders 3 seasons, and probably better than what Marner will put up this year. I have full faith that Lou can sign both Nylander and Marner (more so Nylander) at 6M AAV.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Richmond Hill, ON
In what world are Marner and Nylander hands down better than Ehlers? I love the leafs, I love the big 3 but Ehlers is a phenomenal player and his numbers in his contract year were better than Nylanders 3 seasons, and probably better than what Marner will put up this year. I have full faith that Lou can sign both Nylander and Marner (more so Nylander) at 6M AAV.

Ehlers and Laine are playing behind Schiefele and Wheeler who are having all star years. Matthews, Willie and Mitch are driving the bus here. As such I put Willie and Mitch at or slightly above Ehlers. With the Cap rising, the same percentage Ehlers got will be higher than the $6M Ehlers got. Make sense ??
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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Lake Huron
I think the team will look similar to this year. JVR, Bozak and Komarov gone. Johnson, Aaltonen, Kapanen, Leivo, Borgman getting bigger minutes. To me the biggest issue is who takes over from Bozak. Nice if Nylander can do the job since the Leafs do have more wingers that take his place on wing. But trying to find a competent 2C/3C might be difficult. The only one I like in free agency is Stastny, and there are few available. I just don't see the Leafs pursuing Tavares.
Who plays the RHD. Carrick? Ozhigkov? Holl? Not many available as UFAs either.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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I think the team will look similar to this year. JVR, Bozak and Komarov gone. Johnson, Aaltonen, Kapanen, Leivo, Borgman getting bigger minutes. To me the biggest issue is who takes over from Bozak. Nice if Nylander can do the job since the Leafs do have more wingers that take his place on wing. But trying to find a competent 2C/3C might be difficult. The only one I like in free agency is Stastny, and there are few available. I just don't see the Leafs pursuing Tavares.
Who plays the RHD. Carrick? Ozhigkov? Holl? Not many available as UFAs either.

I think you're wrong - why wouldn't we pursue Tavares?
 
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lifelonghockeyfan

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I think you're wrong - why wouldn't we pursue Tavares?

I know it's subjective. Pen to paper, do the Leaf really want to commit so much money to Tavares over the next seven years?
IMO, I don't think that is the Leafs business practice. And my thoughts is Tavares isn't going to be worth the value over his contract long term. The Leafs might be more interested in the UFA class of 2019/20 when there are more UFAs available especially on defence.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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I know it's subjective. Pen to paper, do the Leaf really want to commit so much money to Tavares over the next seven years?
IMO, I don't think that is the Leafs business practice. And my thoughts is Tavares isn't going to be worth the value over his contract long term. The Leafs might be more interested in the UFA class of 2019/20 when there are more UFAs available especially on defence.

We really need a centre badly though. Stick Tavares in our lineup and boom, problem solved for a number of years to come. I think it's just like the Stamkos situation - we would love to have him but we have to be careful not to overpay.
 
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lifelonghockeyfan

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I'd be trying to mitigate the damage of Moore, JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Pleks walking for nothing

There are about 150 UFAs on expiring contracts, They "walk for nothing" all the time. It seems to be a Leafs fan obsession about HAVING to get a return for upcoming UFAs. You keep these players because it aids your team to make the playoffs and in the playoffs. You give your players hope and it helps the young players with playoff experience.
I suppose the 24 teams that have no hope to win the Cup in October should be trading those 72 upcoming UFAs to the nine teams that are going to win the Cup. Yep that happens every year.
 

ShaneFalco

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Jul 15, 2012
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There are about 150 UFAs on expiring contracts, They "walk for nothing" all the time. It seems to be a Leafs fan obsession about HAVING to get a return for upcoming UFAs. You keep these players because it aids your team to make the playoffs and in the playoffs. You give your players hope and it helps the young players with playoff experience.
I suppose the 24 teams that have no hope to win the Cup in October should be trading those 72 upcoming UFAs to the nine teams that are going to win the Cup. Yep that happens every year.

Ok Mr Condescending
They should have made changes last summer to avoid. Yes, some players are going to walk for noting. But you can't let a guy like JVR walk. It's a big gamble, and if they go out early, the playoff experience/young player morale thing is just a bunch of bs
For too long the Leafs have held on to guys because they thought they were better than they were.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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Ok Mr Condescending
They should have made changes last summer to avoid. Yes, some players are going to walk for noting. But you can't let a guy like JVR walk. It's a big gamble, and if they go out early, the playoff experience/young player morale thing is just a bunch of bs
For too long the Leafs have held on to guys because they thought they were better than they were.

I might have condescending but I least factual. Teams don't constantly trade upcoming UFAs, which might result in missing the playoffs or not do well in the playoffs, then by some miracle they win the Cup in the future It's a growth process.
Although I will agree, that maybe the Leafs should have traded JVR last summer and given more minutes to Leivo and Kapanen this season. That might have been a better long term solution.
 

ShaneFalco

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Jul 15, 2012
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London, On
I might have condescending but I least factual. Teams don't constantly trade upcoming UFAs, which might result in missing the playoffs or not do well in the playoffs, then by some miracle they win the Cup in the future It's a growth process.
Although I will agree, that maybe the Leafs should have traded JVR last summer and given more minutes to Leivo and Kapanen this season. That might have been a better long term solution.

Bottom line is, if they go out early and all those guys walk, that's terrible asset management. There's no sugar coating it. They get paid extremely well to manage assets. I'd add it would be poor player development too with the likes of Leivo
If they go really far, well then it doesn't sting nearly as much. They took a gamble we'll see how it pans out
 

Mess

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There are about 150 UFAs on expiring contracts, They "walk for nothing" all the time. It seems to be a Leafs fan obsession about HAVING to get a return for upcoming UFAs. You keep these players because it aids your team to make the playoffs and in the playoffs. You give your players hope and it helps the young players with playoff experience.
I suppose the 24 teams that have no hope to win the Cup in October should be trading those 72 upcoming UFAs to the nine teams that are going to win the Cup. Yep that happens every year.

Leafs trade #7OA + 2nd +3rd round picks to NYI for #5OA .... Leafs draft Luke Schenn
Leafs trade Luke Schenn to Philly for JVR
Leafs let JVR walk away for nothing.

Questionable asset management 101 !!!
vs.
Gamble to win the Cup this year ??

On the other hand ..

JVR (Cup or Bust) and letting a 30 goal scorer walk for free.
vs
NYR Traded • Rick Nash to Bruins for • Ryan Spooner • Ryan Lindgren • Matt Beleskey • 2018 first round pick.

If neither NYR nor Leafs win the Cup this year, who is better off going forward in terms of asset management?.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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I might have condescending but I least factual. Teams don't constantly trade upcoming UFAs, which might result in missing the playoffs or not do well in the playoffs, then by some miracle they win the Cup in the future It's a growth process.
Although I will agree, that maybe the Leafs should have traded JVR last summer and given more minutes to Leivo and Kapanen this season. That might have been a better long term solution.

I think that would have been an excellent idea.

As a side note - I really hate the argument that "teams just don't do this" etc. I understand the reasoning behind it but at the same time, just because teams typically do things a certain way doesn't mean that it's the smart thing to do. That line of thinking pretty much guarantees that innovations will never happen and that's not the way I would like the Leafs to think.

One example comes to mind (and this is purely anecdotal so take it FWIW):
In the NFL on 4th down, teams almost always used to punt. And that must be the right thing to do because that's the way everyone does it and that's always the way it's been done right? I witnessed an interesting discussion on a forum maybe 10 years ago or so (a forum like this one, just fans analyzing and discussing) where convincing arguments were made that teams should be going for it in that spot quite often. They showed all kinds of analysis that seemed to me to make excellent points, especially when teams were past midfield but short of field goal range, say at about the 40-45 yard line or so. I don't have any numbers but it seems to me that today, teams are indeed gambling in these situations much more often. I'm not sure how much more this is happening but I just googled it and at a glance, there are now a number of interesting articles on the subject and I gather that my impressions are correct - teams are indeed going for it much more often than used to be the case. So the moral of the story is - don't be afraid to challenge conventional "wisdom". If you analyze something thoroughly and your analysis indicates a strategy that goes against standard practices, you might be missing something but on the other hand, you might be on to something that can give you an edge over the competition.

So back to JVR, I thought it made a ton of sense to trade him. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm not. One thing I am sure of though is that I'm not persuaded the least bit by the argument that "teams just don't do this".

Anyhow, what's done is done and I can't honestly say that not trading JVR was the wrong move seeing as we're so high up in the standings. Then again, had we traded him we may be even higher, you never know. ;)
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
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If anyone's interested in the 4th down gamble stuff, here's an interesting article I found. I'm sure there are many others and I didn't read the whole thing but seems pretty good.
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The 4th Down Study - Part 4

Here are a couple of excerpts:
If the benefit of going for it is so clear, why are coaches choosing to kick so often? The authors of Hidden Game of Football suggest that the current 4th down doctrine in football is a hold-over from the early days of the sport.

David Romer's explanation goes a step further. He suggests that coaches are thinking more about their job security than their team's chances of winning. Coaches know that if they follow age-old convention by kicking and lose, then the players get most of the blame. But if they defy convention and go for the 1st down and fail, even if it was the best decision, they'll take all the criticism.
 

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