Post-Game Talk: We suck (Well, the Players, coaches, management, Ice Caretakers)

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I know we still lack talent, but I think this team is more talented than some of the teams we've had more recently under Maurice / Muller, but the results aren't notably different. Some of that is due to poor goaltending, although how much of that is on the goalie vs. the system they play which tends to give up more high danger chances.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I like this roster. I thought this was easily a playoff team at the start of the season before Darling failed so spectacularly. Aho/Staal/TT is a real 1st line. Skinner getting 30+ on a secondary scoring line. And guys like Rask/Williams/Stemp/Lindholm/Ryan/McGinn rounding out the top 10 is legit depth. And the defense, again, is filled with guys who have very successful seasons on their resume.

Outside of Darling, on paper this should be a very good team. That's my unpopular opinion. That we have the pieces to be top 3 in the Metro, and instead they'll probably end up missing the playoffs by 6 points.

Rask, Stempniak (the version who sits in the press box) and Ryan is legit depth? How?

 

[Ole Gil]

Rask depends on whether you think he just stopped being good at hockey at 24, or he's doing what he's told, which is torpedoing his offensive production in the name of goal suppression like Eric. (Victor somehow is +5)

Ryan depends on whether you think Peters overusing him means he's not a good depth forward. He is the #3 center in the entire NHL in CF%. I think that's just a fluke byproduct from Peter's system. But you don't. So it should mean something to you.

All in all, they have 9 20+ point forwards, despite Stemp who was coming off 2 40pt seasons out.

And I think there's a lot more to be had. I'm very excited to see Lindholm play for not Peters in particular. I'm most curious to see what Victor does. I think it's going to be a big rebound season for him.

I'm also excited to see what Faulk/Hanifin/Slavin do. Slavin is 10 points off his pace from last year. Faulk and Hanifin still look as uncomfortable as dmen can look playing this all or nothing goofball system.

 

[What the Faulk]

Here are the heat maps of where the shots are being taken (relative to league average) for some of the top corsi playoff teams. You can see how Carolina has a lot more shots from the perimeter and way fewer in the slot compared to these other, more successful teams. They don't have the horses to score from these locations like those do.

 

[Ole Gil]

That big red Brent Burns dot on the Sharks map!

Definitely not great that the Canes have the photo negative of the Lightning map.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Rask depends on whether you think he just stopped being good at hockey at 24, or he's doing what he's told, which is torpedoing his offensive production in the name of goal suppression like Eric. (Victor somehow is +5)

This is new. Rask isn’t scoring goals anymore... on purpose? It sure looks like he’s just trying and failing.

Ryan depends on whether you think Peters overusing him means he's not a good depth forward. He is the #3 center in the entire NHL in CF%. I think that's just a fluke byproduct from Peter's system. But you don't. So it should mean something to you.

Oh come on, I’ve been saying for two solid years that Ryan is an overslotted garbage player. His CF% is meaningless if you’re not taking it in the context of his other numbers (which I assume are worse or you wouldn’t have been so selective about this one).


Also, bear in mind that both of these guys had their unexpected breakouts playing this same system under this same coach. Clearly the system wasn’t a problem for them in 2017, so what changed?

 

[Ole Gil]

This is new. Rask isn’t scoring goals anymore... on purpose? It sure looks like he’s just trying and failing.

Oh come on, I’ve been saying for two solid years that Ryan is an overslotted garbage player. His CF% is meaningless if you’re not taking it in the context of his other numbers (which I assume are worse or you wouldn’t have been so selective about this one).


Also, bear in mind that both of these guys had their unexpected breakouts playing this same system under this same coach. Clearly the system wasn’t a problem for them in 2017, so what changed?

Yes, I'm saying Rask isn't scoring as much anymore by design. That big empty spot in the middle of the ice where Tampa is scoring a billion goals from is empty on the Canes heat map, because the forwards get it back to the point, then go sit in front of the net, and hope the puck bounces off them. That's not Rask's game.

And Ryan has 26 points in 58 games which is decent. It'd put him in the top 9 in scoring of just about every team in the NHL.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yes, I'm saying Rask isn't scoring as much anymore by design. That big empty spot in the middle of the ice where Tampa is scoring a billion goals from is empty on the Canes heat map, because the forwards get it back to the point, then go sit in front of the net, and hope the puck bounces off them. That's not Rask's game.

But it was his game last year, under the same coach, playing the same system?

And Ryan has 26 points in 58 games which is decent. It'd put him in the top 9 in scoring of just about every team in the NHL.

He’s a replacement level player who serves no purpose other than to pass the puck to his linemates and watch them score.

I do think you hit on something with the CF%, though. That’s an indicator that he plays a “Bill Peters” type of game (even though he lacks the athletic ability to really excel at it) and is maxing out his potential in this system and with guys like Skinner and Williams as linemates. That makes him a preferable option for both coach and GM over a “name” player with more ability and a bigger paycheck but less of a natural fit for the system.

 

[AD Skinner]

I think for this year and maybe next, Ryan is an ok option for your bottom six. He's too old to count on for any longer and it's a safe bet he won't improve much if at all. Not great but not the worst. The problem is that he is being counted on to be a difference maker and he simply is not good enough to do that in the NHL with any consistency. At least we're to the point now that our players could hold a job on other teams, as opposed to leaving the Hurricanes and never playing the league again. I'm sure he does everything Peters tells him to do and obviously works hard. I get why Peters loves him. The results just aren't there and I don't think it's reasonable to expect that they will come in this role. It kind of reminds me of Jussi Jokinen all over again

 

[MinJaBen]

Here are the heat maps of where the shots are being taken (relative to league average) for some of the top corsi playoff teams. You can see how Carolina has a lot more shots from the perimeter and way fewer in the slot compared to these other, more successful teams. They don't have the horses to score from these locations like those do.

Jets must suck this year worse than we do.

 

[What the Faulk]

Jets must suck this year worse than we do.

Um, not sure how you came to that conclusion unless you're being facetious or intentionally obtuse. They have one of the better goaltenders in the league and a very sound defense.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Um, not sure how you came to that conclusion unless you're being facetious or intentionally obtuse. They have one of the better goaltenders in the league and a very sound defense.

I think he's talking about how the Jets are one of the top 5 scoring teams in the league, yet their heat map isn't any better than Carolina's.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So, the Jets have scored far more goals than the Canes while taking far fewer shots... despite shooting from the same places. Because they shoot 10.3% instead of our 7.7%.

There’s a too-obvious explanation for this.

 

[What the Faulk]

I think he's talking about how the Jets are one of the top 5 scoring teams in the league, yet their heat map isn't any better than Carolina's.

That's debatable. There's plenty there in the middle of the ice, and those shots from the point still count. Plus, blue doesn't mean they're not shooting from those locations. It means they're shooting less than league average. What you don't want to see is the empty space that makes up a lot of the slot on the Hurricanes' map. That means they're shooting at such a low rate that it doesn't even register. The Jets are also converting on their shots at the 6th best rate in the league. Whether that's a skill difference or "luck" is up for debate.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So, the Jets have scored far more goals than the Canes while taking far fewer shots... despite shooting from the same places. Because they shoot 10.3% instead of our 7.7%.

There’s a too-obvious explanation for this.

Yeah, not hard to explain. Paul Maurice.

 

[GoldiFox]

It is so simple. All the Canes need to start scoring from where they are shooting is Patrik Laine.

Peters just needs to tell our forwards to stop floating muffins into the goalie's crest and instead just shoot 100 mph one-timers into the top corners.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think he's talking about how the Jets are one of the top 5 scoring teams in the league, yet their heat map isn't any better than Carolina's.

Do you really think so? You see the red area for the Jets in the middle of the ice, right? And that the Canes have big stretches of red filling up Drayson Bowman's wrister lane?

If you shoot a lot from places where there's almost no chance to score from, which the Canes seem to love, that can hurt your shooting %.

 

[Bub]

Do you really think so? You see the red area for the Jets in the middle of the ice, right? And that the Canes have big stretches of red filling up Drayson Bowman's wrister lane?

If you shoot a lot from places where there's almost no chance to score from, which the Canes seem to love, that can hurt your shooting %.

On a side note, Drayson Bowman's Wrister is either a great band name or a new microbrew IPA.

 

[The Stranger]

The heat maps are interesting and tell part of the story.

Additionally, there is shot velocity, shot placement, puck movement prior to the shot, release time, and net front presence to consider.

The shooting skill on the Canes is poor. Net-front is weak.

All the variables add up to the product we see...pour on low-quality shots...shots from the perimeter...un-screened shots...slow release shots...shots to the chest protector. Opposing goalies love it.

Somewhat related...I would like to see Faulk tried on the left half-wall during the PP...just work to feed him one-timers.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If you shoot a lot from places where there's almost no chance to score from, which the Canes seem to love, that can hurt your shooting %.

No disagreement from me. Canes tend to take a lot of low probability shots, which are weak in nature many times, with little net front presence. It happens enough years in a row to know it's not bad luck.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Yes, I'm saying Rask isn't scoring as much anymore by design. That big empty spot in the middle of the ice where Tampa is scoring a billion goals from is empty on the Canes heat map, because the forwards get it back to the point, then go sit in front of the net, and hope the puck bounces off them. That's not Rask's game.

.

The problem is, whenever Rask or Ryan try to cut to the middle they almost always lose the puck.

Rask isn't a fit for this team. If he got onto a team that had him sit in the slot and wait for wingers to get him the puck, he could score 30. Partly on peters for getting rask to go to the net, but partly that our wingers aren't big and fast enough to be great forecheckers, so rask, while not fast, is big and strong and competent on the boards if he's feeling up to it, has to be the one to dig the puck out.

conclusion: sign jvr and put him with rask.

No disagreement from me. Canes tend to take a lot of low probability shots, which are weak in nature many times, with little net front presence. It happens enough years in a row to know it's not bad luck.

if the shift is going nowhere, throw it on net and get a faceoff.

(aka why ryan has good corsi despite getting pinned in the offensive zone more than any other player on the team)

 

[What the Faulk]

The heat maps are interesting and tell part of the story.

Additionally, there is shot velocity, shot placement, puck movement prior to the shot, release time, and net front presence to consider.

The shooting skill on the Canes is poor. Net-front is weak.

All the variables add up to the product we see...pour on low-quality shots...shots from the perimeter...un-screened shots...slow release shots...shots to the chest protector. Opposing goalies love it.

Somewhat related...I would like to see Faulk tried on the left half-wall during the PP...just work to feed him one-timers.

It is infuriating to see this basically every time on a 2 on 1, not allowing the second man a chance at a rebound.

 

[cptjeff]

So, the Jets have scored far more goals than the Canes while taking far fewer shots... despite shooting from the same places. Because they shoot 10.3% instead of our 7.7%.

There’s a too-obvious explanation for this.

But PDO predicts that their shooting percentage will go down and ours will go up soon enough. Someday, right?

 

[The Faulker 27]

Is talent the marriage of IQ and skill? Just made that up, but I think we have some skilled players, I don't think we have high IQ players. Maybe the exception being Aho, and Slavin?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Is talent the marriage of IQ and skill? Just made that up, but I think we have some skilled players, I don't think we have high IQ players. Maybe the exception being Aho, and Slavin?

But is the perceived lack of IQ due in part to the system that Peter's has them play which makes guys with decent IQs look bad? The defensemen, in particular, have an extremely tough task as they are coached to pinch, join the rush frequently, and hold very tight gaps in the neutral zone. While that works 90% of the time, when it fails (and you don't have a forward covering), it's disastrous. Slavin was beyond his years so was able to adapt to this very quickly, but the others struggle with it. There's almost zero margin for error in that approach.