Series Talk: WCSF: Colorado Avalanche (C3) vs Dallas Stars (C1) | Stars win 4-2

[missionAvs]

As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.

 

[henchman21]

Dallas are actually generating the least amount of high danger chances in the league this round.

Again you cannot say that this is what Carolina does as they have never actually done it over a series. I’m all for various opinions but this is just factually incorrect & it is not the Avs problem. If it was the Avs problem their regular corsi percentage would be much higher than their high danger corsi, the exact opposite of that is true where the Avs advantage in high danger chances is greater than their advantage in all shots

What Dallas is generating is not the point here. It is how the Avs are attacking, which is volume shots and staying to the outside without creating enough high danger chances. That is what you can't get around... ~65 CF and ~11HDCF around the same split as Carolina averages (70/12.5). it is actually a bit worse of a split.

Saying that, the 22 Rangers series is really not far off from what is happening here if you want to focus on the splits. They went 5v5 54, 60, 68, 61, 69, and 59% HDCF. All situations 54, 56, 63, 50, 64, 67, and 61%. They lost that series in 7.

 

[the_fan]

As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.

Yup, we can nit pick what’s going wrong, who’s not playing well etc…the biggest thing IMO is the will and the hunger to win. One team has it, the other one is playing like they’ve already won one recently.

 

[The Moops]

As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.

That's why they call me Mr Right

 

[Eltuna]

What Dallas is generating is not the point here. It is how the Avs are attacking, which is volume shots and staying to the outside without creating enough high danger chances. That is what you can't get around... ~65 CF and ~11HDCF around the same split as Carolina averages (70/12.5). it is actually a bit worse of a split.

Saying that, the 22 Rangers series is really not far off from what is happening here if you want to focus on the splits. They went 5v5 54, 60, 68, 61, 69, and 59% HDCF. All situations 54, 56, 63, 50, 64, 67, and 61%. They lost that series in 7.

Dallas’ generation absolutely matters, if you are generating many more high danger chances than your opponent is than high danger chances are not your teams problem and there are zero arguments to suggest otherwise.

If the Avs had noticeably more high danger chances created through these 3 games (let’s say 2 more per game) they would have one of the most lopsided series in hockey history, asking for that is lunacy against an opponent like Dallas who is very good.

If the Avs were shooting from everywhere and not generating high danger chances compared to their opponent you would expect a corsi percentage in the 60% and a high danger percentage closer to 50% (this is what is happening in the Carolina series for example and it’s what happened to them against Florida last year as well). For the Avs the exact opposite is true where their advantage in high danger chances is probably the thing they are doing the best

 

[the_fan]

Look at Vegas and their attempt to win another cup. Their Smythe winner had 4 points in 7 games. Stone 3 points in 7 games. Out of their top players, only Eichel was good. They really didn’t have that drive and will to win another cup.

 

[henchman21]

Dallas’ generation absolutely matters, if you are generating many more high danger chances than your opponent is than high danger chances are not your teams problem and there are zero arguments to suggest otherwise.

If the Avs had noticeably more high danger chances created through these 3 games (let’s say 2 more per game) they would have one of the most lopsided series in hockey history, asking for that is lunacy against an opponent like Dallas who is very good.

If the Avs were shooting from everywhere and not generating high danger chances compared to their opponent you would expect a corsi percentage in the 60% and a high danger percentage closer to 50% (this is what is happening in the Carolina series for example and it’s what happened to them against Florida last year as well). For the Avs the exact opposite is true where their advantage in high danger chances is probably the thing they are doing the best

The defense is not what is being stated. It is how the Avs are attacking. They are generating a relatively few amount of high danger chances compared to the amount of attempts. To state that high danger chance generation is not a problem is incredibly misguided. To win 3/4, the Avs are going to have to put up 14-17 consistently. Maybe you squeak through a game, but 3 of 4 is a tall order unless you generate more chances.

The goaltending difference is how that very much matters. To beat Otter at a higher rate, you absolutely have to have more dangerous chances to win consistently. If you tell DeBoer before each game that the Avs will have 11 and the Stars will have 9, he's going to take that every time. Dallas can win that way. Avs have a much more difficult time. Why... because George is significantly worse on medium and low danger chances. Dallas doesn't need to create as much to win. If they just limit the Avs high danger stuff, then stay within earshot elsewhere... they'll win games.

This is very clear in these 3 games... Otter has faced 19 high danger shots and given up 5 goals. George has faced 21 high danger shots and given up 3 goals. The actual shots are pretty close, and the Stars are actually losing that battle. Just like they are losing the high danger chance battle. But where the difference jumps out... Otter has faced 20 medium danger shots and given up 2 goals, 42 low danger shots and given up 1 goal. George has faced 19 medium danger shots and given up 3 goals 32 low danger shots and given up 3 goals. The Avs are generating far more medium and low danger... but scoring far less goals. Given Otter's normal rates, the high danger should go up while the others should stay in the same range (based on 3 season average). The book on Otter is that he's a rather mediocre high danger goalie, but typically (not this regular season, but previous and thusfar in the playoffs) a very dependable goalie on medium and low danger. So if you just limit the high danger, he can win you a lot of games. That's what has happened and how Dallas is gameplanning. They would have won game 1 if he played slightly better.

In last night's game, the Avs had 61% Corsi and 56% HDCF.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.

We played bad second game but otherwise this series is completely open. Dallas was fortunate to win the third game.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

The return of Jonathan Drouin would do wonders for this team because he can make plays with very little space given to him and is one of the few forwards up the top six who has dogged hounding tactics.

I worry he won't be available until the 4 week mark at the earliest.

There will be no saving Messiah's on this Avalanche run...... They are going to have to do it with the players they already in the line up.

But people will keep on wishing and hoping.....

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Yeah, the results of my personal eye test were the same. Avs tried again and again and again to pass through Dallas's neutral zone setup, and one of the few times they succeeded was Nichushkin's cross-ice pass to a streaking Toews, which eventually led to the goal. When the Avs did get into the zone, they were generally unable to sustain pressure or get to rebounds since Dallas was great at tying up sticks and not giving the Avs time to make a play. For me, this was starkly evident during the Stars' penalty kills—they really pressed the Avs at every opportunity and did not give them time to set up (contrast to the passive PK strategy of the Avs), which left them vulnerable to a 3-or-4-pass plays that we were unfortunately unable to execute, since pucks were dying on Rantanen's and Lekhonen's stick.

The fact that the expected goal numbers tilt so heavily to the Avs does give me pause though and makes me wonder whether my eyes were betraying me. Maybe it's that Oettinger looks so calm and controlled in the net that whatever marginal 0.05 or 0.1 xG that a normal shot or "normal" (non-high-danger) scoring chance generates feels more like 0.01 to the eye?

Very well stated. There is no sustained Av offensive pressure. There are no 2nd shot opportunities being generated. Loose pucks are being cleared, access to rebounds are being denied., Avs are either not in position to regain possession or are being interfered with enough to make them be late to the puck.

And they tend to lose most 1 on 1 battles for the puck..... Stars have quicker sticks and usually outnumber the Avs on the play.

 

[RECKLESS]

Win the next one and it's a best of three.
They can do it. While I agree on the problems we've faced mentioned here, these games have been close and we've hit posts and had some miracle defender saves to not get the lead.

We will next game and the tide starts to turn.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I have said that a few times in the past.....It doesn't matter if your system uses zone entry with possession or dump and chase. If your system uses one exclusively you will get figured out by decent coaches. You absolutely need to use a hybrid version. You can go 65-35% with one over the other but it cannot be 90-10%. That is one of the problems here against Dallas. The Avs persist to use zone entry with possession and Dallas are just waiting for them giving them the outside and blocking the middle. It is up to the players to realize when to switch it up depending of where Dallas' players are relative to their blue line and how fast they are backing up. Start using a hybrid system and the opponent will start double guessing your intentions which in turn will open up their defensive system. The Avs are just too predictable right now.

 

[dahrougem2]

I have said that a few times in the past.....It doesn't matter if your system uses zone entry with possession or dump and chase. If your system uses one exclusively you will get figured out by decent coaches. You absolutely need to use a hybrid version. You can go 65-35% with one over the other but it cannot be 90-10%. That is one of the problems here against Dallas. The Avs persist to use zone entry with possession and Dallas are just waiting for them giving them the outside and blocking the middle. It is up to the players to realize when to switch it up depending of where Dallas' players are relative to their blue line and how fast they are backing up. Start using a hybrid system and the opponent will start double guessing your intentions which in turn will open up their defensive system. The Avs are just too predictable right now.

It's not even about hybrid making them guess. If you get pucks into corners and win battles, chances naturally will come.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

It's not even about hybrid making them guess. If you get pucks into corners and win battles, chances naturally will come.

But it is. If you continuously put pucks into the corners the dmen will cheat by backing up a bit more than usual and therefore getting to pucks first. You absolutely need to switch it up. Like I said your system can be built more towards one than the other but it cannot be mostly one. I would argue that 65-35% is the max.

 

[dahrougem2]

But it is. If you continuously put pucks into the corners the dmen will cheat by backing up a bit more than usual and therefore getting to pucks first. You absolutely need to switch it up. Like I said your system can be built more towards one than the other but it cannot be mostly one. I would argue that 65-35% is the max.

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying dump and chase is proven to work in the playoffs yet the Avs refuse it despite having the perfect personnel to play it and bully the Stars.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Game 1

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Game 2

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Game 3

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These match the eye test to me. We are actually unlucky to be 1-2 down in the series. I'm surprised last night's is so high as we were very out of sync all night. But we had the zone time, we had the possession and the share of shots you'd expect to lead to a win.

Avs should have been up 3-0 after the 1st last night.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Chiarelli]

You somehow think the Stars deserved to win game 1. That's all I need to know.

<\3

Isn’t the last thing we argued about how you thought Burakovsky was a star player. How’d that go with his 7 goals this season

How much of this was because Dallas was turtling though?

This. Don’t kid yourselves folks the only time the Avs have looked”good” is due to score effects

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

As others have said, this is 2021 Vegas again. We're out in 5 against this team. I was optimistic and voted Stars in 6 but that's likely not to be the case. MacK is happy with his 1 cup and Rants can't wait to get back to partying back home in Finland.

The game 1 OT win was a photocopy of the game 2 vs Vegas.

We all knew this was coming. It's nothing to do with MacK being content. It's just not him to change up his game. And it's not Bednar to change tactics. A good team with a coach willing to adapt has always been lights out for the Avs.

 

[Chiarelli]

The game 1 OT win was a photocopy of the game 2 vs Vegas.

We all knew this was coming. It's nothing to do with MacK being content. It's just not him to change up his game. And it's not Bednar to change tactics. A good team with a coach willing to adapt has always been lights out for the Avs.

Tough to teach guys in their mid 20s how to dump and chase and go to the net. Not like it’s rocket appliances Bednar himself was a zero skill dude you think he’s telling them to play perimeter hockey and pass the puck into the net?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Even worse than Edmonton or Dallas to the Finals would be Vancouver... that fanbase.

I fear the fires lit across the pacific northwest will greatly accelerate global warming when they loose to Miami.

 

[Freaky Styley]

the doom and gloom in here is pretty amusing for being down 2-1 in what's been a very even series.

did you think we were only going to lose 1 game? Did you think we'd never be trailing in a series again in the playoffs?

I get there are frustrations but it's playoffs and that's part of it. Lessons to be learned and now it's how to respond. Outside of execution and a stubbornness against dump and chase hockey, the Avs played very well last game. Urgency rises with every loss and Drouin is returning

Have some faith in your team. I guess you don't understand how this universe works. We all play a part in the outcome but we have to collectively envision them winning and believe in their abilities.

 

[Heyduke]

The last game, while disappointing, was still very close. Val hit the post, and I think it was Girard who had a golden opportunity in the 3rd. If they score on those plays, Avs probably win. They gotta win game 4, but this series is still up for grabs.

 

[AegonLeConqueror]

the doom and gloom in here is pretty amusing for being down 2-1 in what's been a very even series.

did you think we were only going to lose 1 game? Did you think we'd never be trailing in a series again in the playoffs?

I get there are frustrations but it's playoffs and that's part of it. Lessons to be learned and now it's how to respond. Outside of execution and a stubbornness against dump and chase hockey, the Avs played very well last game. Urgency rises with every loss and Drouin is returning

Have some faith in your team. I guess you don't understand how this universe works. We all play a part in the outcome but we have to collectively envision them winning and believe in their abilities.

Even if the Avs lose a close one, I'd at least hope someone beats the breaks off Jamie Benn. Either Trenin or Manson...

 

[Freaky Styley]

The last game, while disappointing, was still very close. Val hit the post, and I think it was Girard who had a golden opportunity in the 3rd. If they score on those plays, Avs probably win. They gotta win game 4, but this series is still up for grabs.

No to mention MacKinnon missing a wide open net on the PP. As Bednar said, the game was lost because of missed opportunities early.

But like regardless of anything else I'm just not going to bet against Cale Makar.