Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think this is the worst starting 9 we had in some time.

Lmao it’s better than last year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

There is what? Only 1 legit 30 home run threat? I don't buy into Smoak at all. Most of them are just hopes and prayers. If Travis stays healthy maybe we have another above average hitter.

What in the world.

 

[The Nemesis]

What in the world.

Justin Smoak is Sidd Finch.

Finkel is Einhorn.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I think if the pitching holds the fort during the 1st half that the offense has a chance to get better later in the year from internal improvements. This is the first time in a long time that the Jays have had a bunch of good positional prospects in the high minors. If somebody isn't getting the job done there will be better options than handing Zeke/Barney/Goins/Jose/etc a bunch of AB's like the team was forced into last year after injuries occurred.

 

[canucksfan]

No word on the final roster announcements yet? Been checking around and can't find anything.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Justin Smoak is Sidd Finch.

Finkel is Einhorn.

 

[shaner8989]

Got to be the post of the year and im not being sarcastic. Has his feelings, knows it is his subjective opinion and does the right thing by staying away. lol

Lol thanks bro.

 

[Discoverer]

What in the world.

You think Smoak is a 30 HR threat after only hitting 38 last year? Keep dreaming.

In all seriousness, if HR are all someone is interested (and yes, that's exactly as hilarious as it sounds considering we've spent three years hearing about how all the team can do is hit HR and needed a more diverse offense), then the Jays have a good chance of getting 30+ from LF, RF, 3B, 1B, and DH. They'll be fine.

 

[TF97]

Former Blue Jays, Raffy Lopez and Casey Lawrence, have made their respective ball clubs. Interesting that the Padres are electing to carry a trio of catchers. Although I suppose that Lopez could be used in a pinch hitting role as well if needed.

 

[hockeywiz542]

On the eve of the Toronto Blue Jays‘ opening game of the 2018 season, team president Mark Shapiro is feeling confident about the team he and general manager Ross Atkins have constructed.

After a devastating 2017 campaign failed to live up to the expectation of a second straight American League Championship Series appearance, the Blue Jays will now be looking to get back on track.

And it looks like the hope is that it will be on the backs of their pitchers.

“Most of the work has been done to put us in position to be a contending ball club,” Shapiro said Wednesday on Prime Time Sports. “We are going to go as our pitching takes us. We feel really good about our starting pitching. We know we’ve got four guys that we’re really familiar with and Jaime Garcia had one of the best springs of starters in major league spring training.”

The four arms he spoke of have been the usual suspects on the mound at first pitch over the last couple of years: J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman. The core of the pitching rotation combined for 52 wins (20 from opening day starter Happ) in a particularly dominant 2016. Sanchez led the American League in ERA with 3.00 that year but was predominantly kept off the field in 2017 while dealing with blister issues.

Now, with the addition of Garcia, Shapiro feels good about the starting five heading into a fresh season.

“If you put out a starter each night that has a good chance to win, I think that’s a good start.”

 

[Nineteen67]

The Ole spitball season kicks off today -do we do predictions here.

Anywelp, I’ll do mine

Al winners
Yankees - Why not
Twins - I just don’t like Cleveland
Astros- even if they have rough patch they’ll win by default
WC Cleveland and Jays - maybe we are too close and a lot biased but they should contend- why not the Jays?

No Red Sox - Part hope, partly because they have just as many holes as the Jays with a new manager, and mostly because my neighbour is sux fan and he’s a lot more palatable when they lose....

National
Washington
Cubs
Dodgers
WC Cards Dbacks

WS
Astros and Nationals

I’d recommend every other team and fanbase enjoy themselves for the next two season ,because , when the Vlad Bo and Stro Show opens there won’t be many championship left over to them the enjoy....

 

[Morgs]

AL East - Blue Jays
AL Central - Indians
AL West - Astros
Wildcard 1 - Yankees
Wildcard 2 - Angels
Just missing - Red Sox

NL East - Nationals
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Dodgers
Wildcard 1 - Diamondbacks
Wildcard 2 - Rockies
Just missing - Brewers

WS - Astros vs Dodgers

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Predictions are always fun.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Baseball Club
AL West: Astros
AL WC1: Red Sox
AL WC2: Blue Jays

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC1: D'Backs
NL WC2: Cardinals

The Astros and Cubs meet in the World Series. Cubs win.

Blue Jays specific predictions:
- Donaldson: 7.5 fWAR, .280/.390/.600 Triple Slash, 45 HR's and the AL MVP
- Travis: 5.0 fWAR, .300/.340/.470 Triple Slash, All Star, and second in 2B silver slugger voting
- Sanchez\Stroman: combined 10 bWAR

 

[phillipmike]

AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Indians
AL West - Astros
Wildcard 1 - Red Sox
Wildcard 2 - Blue Jays

NL East - Nationals
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Dodgers
Wildcard 1 - Diamondbacks
Wildcard 2 - Cardinals

I was gonna pick one of Boston or Cleveland to miss but didnt. New manager, J.D. Martinez contract demands in ST (fans can turn on him with a bad start), David Price, and this is a key year for their window with Kimbrel and Pomperenz FAs and likely a payroll expected to be 205M before any additions next season. I believe the Indians will run away with the Central but they are the Indians - i wonder if they always have the small market syndrome and know that if they dont win this season then their odds are very slim next season with Miller, Allen, Chisenhall, and Brantley all FAs and a payroll well over 100M. As O-dog says we will find out if they have the heart of a moose (and try to compete plus willing to let guys walk) or a heart of a rat (sell the pending FAs for long term assets like they always did). They have a closing window, free agents and a weak farm - that is a recipe for sell or reboot in Cleveland, normally. Nothing is earth shattering about my picks - pretty much went safe everywhere. . But on the flip side cheap wins are at an all time high in free agency so they could get some pen arms and they already have an OF of Naquin, Zimmer and potentially Kipnis.

I think Cleveland has better pieces than Boston to compete in 2019 and 2020 but Boston is Boston so they have the resources to always try to win but their commitments, lack of farm and LT penalties will hold them back plus they seem to have a more conventional President in DD vs having an outside the box thinker like a Hazen or a AA to try creative ways to get them out of a mess i just dont like their short term and long term outlook but neither did i in 2013 and they won the WS.

My darkhorse are the Oakland A's to make the playoffs but i hope not as it would likely be at the Jays expense.

I will go with a Nationals-Yankees WS with the Nationals winning it.

 

[Nineteen67]

RIP Rusty Staub

 

[Nineteen67]

Predictions are always fun.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Baseball Club
AL West: Astros
AL WC1: Red Sox
AL WC2: Blue Jays

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC1: D'Backs
NL WC2: Cardinals

The Astros and Cubs meet in the World Series. Cubs win.

Blue Jays specific predictions:
- Donaldson: 7.5 fWAR, .280/.390/.600 Triple Slash, 45 HR's and the AL MVP
- Travis: 5.0 fWAR, .300/.340/.470 Triple Slash, All Star, and second in 2B silver slugger voting
- Sanchez\Stroman: combined 10 bWAR

If your Blue Jays specific predictions come to fruition this could be a 90 + win team

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If your Blue Jays specific predictions come to fruition this could be a 90 + win team

Funny enough, I'm simply using tangible past performance for each player to predict those things.

But of course "so many things have to go right" for those things to happen, as some have said. It's actually simply health for those four to achieve those things.

 

[Nineteen67]

Funny enough, I'm simply using tangible past performance for each player to predict those things.

But of course "so many things have to go right" for those things to happen, as some have said. It's actually simply health for those four to achieve those things.

True.

If JD wins the MVP, I’d have to think Smoak and the rest of the middle of the lineup are protecting him .

Also it takes the pressure of the pitchers and lets them have less high leverage innings.

 

[hoc123]

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
AL WC1: Red Sox
AL WC2: Blue Jays
Just Missed: Twins, A's

Despite the massive Yankees vs Red Sox coverage the race is never close as the Yankees run away with the east. Indians and Astros wins in the Central and West are never doubted. The Red Sox start off slowly, and in June they are in a 4 way race to the wild card with the Jays, Twins and surprisingly the A's. People start to wonder whether the Red Sox will even male the playoffs, but in July they start to heat up and by mid September they have essentially clinched the top WC spot. The Jays, Twins and A's all battle for the 2'nd WC, and the Jays only clinch the WC on the 2'nd last game.

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC1: Cardinals
NL WC2: Diamondbacks

The Nationals cruise to an easy division win, the Cubs face a surprisingly hard challenge from the Cardinals, but end up winning the division. The Dodgers disappoint, allowing the Diamondbacks to stay in the race, but the Dodgers never lose their lead and take the NL West. The Mets, Brewers, Giants and Rockies all disappoint, and the NL wild card race is never considered interesting as the Cardinals easily take the 1'st wild card, and the Diamondbacks easily take the 2'nd wild card.

AL WCG: Jays over Red Sox
NL WCG: Cardinals over Diamondbacks
ALDS: Astros over Jays (3-1)
ALDS: Indians over Yankees (3-2)
NLDS: Nationals over Cardinals (3-2)
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs (3-0)
ALCS: Indians over Astros (4-2)
NLCS: Nationals over Cubs (4-1)
WS: Indians over Nationals (4-2)

Some personal Jays predictions:
Travis surprisingly stays healthy for pretty much the entire year, playing 130 games, while Tulo essentially doesn't play at all.

The Randall Grichuk trade looks like a steal by the end of the year, due to a 3 WAR season from Grichuk and disappointing seasons from Leone and Greene.

Pearce is released by June, replaced in the LF platoon by Hernandez. Pillar underperforms and is injured for a couple months, and Alford effectively steals the CF job from Pillar.

Smoak regresses, but not completely, and turns in a good hitter (115-120 wRC+) instead of a great one.

Estrada struggles with injuries, and Biagini just struggles, ending the SP experiment for good.

 

[Discoverer]

Predictions are always fun.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Baseball Club
AL West: Astros
AL WC1: Red Sox
AL WC2: Blue Jays

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC1: D'Backs
NL WC2: Cardinals

The Astros and Cubs meet in the World Series. Cubs win.

Blue Jays specific predictions:
- Donaldson: 7.5 fWAR, .280/.390/.600 Triple Slash, 45 HR's and the AL MVP
- Travis: 5.0 fWAR, .300/.340/.470 Triple Slash, All Star, and second in 2B silver slugger voting
- Sanchez\Stroman: combined 10 bWAR

I'm completely on board with all of this. I thought my 4+ fWAR prediction for Travis was bold (for playing time reasons), but I like it.

Also: Teoscar Hernandez is worth 2+ fWAR this year. I want to go bolder, but I don't know where the playing time is going to come from.

 

[phillipmike]

Axford, Clippard make Jays' roster - Article - TSN

 

[TootooTrain]

Move over Luke Maile. Oh better be, at very least, 'okay'.
22 is one of my fav numbers.
Clippard and Axford are a bit weathered, but here's hoping they get into a groove and add to this bullpens quality depth.

 

[zeke]

After my grand total of seeing one spring training inning from Axford, I'm willing to say I'm actually hopeful that he can contribute.

I'm a bit more skeptical about Clippard, and see a few too many dingers in his near future.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm completely on board with all of this. I thought my 4+ fWAR prediction for Travis was bold (for playing time reasons), but I like it.

Also: Teoscar Hernandez is worth 2+ fWAR this year. I want to go bolder, but I don't know where the playing time is going to come from.

Yep, 2.5 fWAR for Teoscar is not outlandish at all.

And with Travis, that's with him getting 600+ PA's, which is as bold as it gets. I'm betting on the knee cartilage issue being corrected by the surgery, and shoulder is already behind him and hasn't been an issue in a couple years. With health, he's one of the best pure hitting 2B in baseball IMO.

I will say I'm more bullish on Sanchez' health. I've noted (and probably sound like a broken record) how silly I think people's stances are on him, and the projections are way way down for several reasons (none of them good). '16 Sanchez is essentially '17 Severino in the eyes of bWAR.

 

[Discoverer]

Yep, 2.5 fWAR for Teoscar is not outlandish at all.

And with Travis, that's with him getting 600+ PA's, which is as bold as it gets. I'm betting on the knee cartilage issue being corrected by the surgery, and shoulder is already behind him and hasn't been an issue in a couple years. With health, he's one of the best pure hitting 2B in baseball IMO.

I will say I'm more bullish on Sanchez' health. I've noted (and probably sound like a broken record) how silly I think people's stances are on him, and the projections are way way down for several reasons (none of them good). '16 Sanchez is essentially '17 Severino in the eyes of bWAR.

Yeah, being so down on Sanchez is gonna look bad in a few months.

My 2+ fWAR prediction for Teoscar assumes 300-400 plate appearances. If I thought he would be around the full season, I would have gone with an easy 3+.