Very Early Redraft

[93LEAFS]

Chytil was one of the youngest players in the draft, his stock rose a LOT over the last year and he was undoubtedly underscouted because playing lesser minutes in Extraliga. He was the youngest player to appear in the NHL since 1974 and now is doing very well in the AHL. I mean, I agree redrafting players so soon is essentially crazy, but if we're doing this, then he should go higher than 21.
Tolvanen dropping so much was really weird (though I don't think anyone expected this kind of production. Even if he slows down a bit...wow).

I think he'd potentially go higher in a re-draft, but I don't think you can justify an 11 spot jump off such a small sample size right now. He rose on the back of a strong U-18. I just think its a bit absurd to see people dropping Patrick out of the top 5 and such. I'm fine with small adjustments, just not wholesale changes outside of the Tolvanen situation, who has played almost half a season for his respective league.

Tolvanen slipped due to concerns about skating and size combo and he didn't absolutely destroy the USHL. It seems that non-USNTDP USHL guys may still be undervalued (see Boeser and Kyle Connor for other recent examples). Also, weird things can happen, all it takes is teams liking a guy just a tiny bit more. Sometimes it just plays out a guy slipped because he was liked a guy just a little bit more. I've heard rumors the Leafs wouldn't have got the guy they like if it wasn't for the Vegas and Winnipeg trade.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

1. Hischier
2. Patrick
3. Heiskanen
4. Petterson
5. Vilardi
6. Glass
7. Makar
8. Tolvanen
9. Thomas
10. Necas
11. Liljegren
12. Kostin
13. Suzuki
14. Andersson
15. Foote

Filip Chytil?

 

[Fantomas]

Teams generally have 2 to 3 years worth of scouting on people by draft date.

First of all, this is not true for many cases. Second of all, in some cases where a team does have 2-3 years worth of scouting, the important information is that which is the most recent. The likelihood of a team being swayed by anything that happened longer ago is nil.

Chytil has played 8 games, maybe slow down the hype train a bit. It's 8 games.

As I have said, this is more games than what often sways scouts and GMs at draft time. One tournament can do the trick. Teams often have very little to work with in fact, especially with international players. And players evolve extremely rapidly at this age. Some go from duckling to swan in a matter of months.

Chytil had an outstanding extended camp, made the team and has now played 8 AHL games at a very high level. A lot to go on.

Tolvanen, fine, he's proven it over close to 30. But, I don't think the tiny bit of this season has changed the narrative of this draft. People are just happy/optimistic about their picks so they are telling themselves it was better than written about before their team had actually made selections. Last years draft had 3 guys making an impact at the NHL level at this point, 2015 had two guys making amazing impacts at the NHL level, a plus a young defender getting decent NHL minutes. 2014 just had Ekblad (and later on Pastrnak), but 2013 had 5 guys getting solid minutes. This year has two guys who will get top 9 minutes, one who is currently injured. Everyone else has been sent back down. I know that isn't a perfect measurement, but I feel most recent drafts if looked at, at the same stage would be doing noticeably better. Plus, in general, all drafts tend to be equal after pick 10.

A draft is obviously going to produce some good players, no draft is completely bereft of them. So, I don't really see how a small sample can really drastically change opinions.

Tolvanen has risen a lot for sure. In a redraft he's top 10 for me, top 15 at least. One hesitation with me is that he is taking advantage of all the extra space he gets on the big KHL ice and with that style of play. It is ideal for his shot.

In the NHL he will get less room to maneuver. 8 games, 30 games - doesn't matter, one can't know. But he has done enough to see his stock grow.

And history shows teams get picks colossally, laughably wrong every single year.

 

[elitepete]

Filip Chytil?

I'd put him at 16

 

[kelsier]

Tolvanen has risen a lot for sure. In a redraft he's top 10 for me, top 15 at least. One hesitation with me is that he is taking advantage of all the extra space he gets on the big KHL ice and with that style of play. It is ideal for his shot.

In the NHL he will get less room to maneuver. 8 games, 30 games - doesn't matter, one can't know. But he has done enough to see his stock grow.

And history shows teams get picks colossally, laughably wrong every single year.

By the way have you watched a lot of his games this season?

Yeah, I agree that he's taking advantage of the space as he should be. Eeli's shot is only one part of the equation. He is a fast and agile skater already, strips pucks with excellent back-checking and his vision isn't clouded whatsoever, quite the opposite, I would call him a very creative player. If anything, he's been missing a lot of chances lately and could have scored a lot more points than he already has. Also while he's taking advantage of that space, he is often the one creating it (having O'Neill in the middle certainly doesn't hurt). When you are doing this well and actually thrive in most aspects of the game, the results kind of speak for themselves. I would say a top 10 or top 15 is an understatement at this point. It's a crapshoot to even have a successful NHL career when drafted at that range. You need to have top end talent to be able to score ~PPG at this age in the KHL. Sure some crappy teams in that league as well, but producing really hasn't been an issue for him no matter the opponent.

When you have a teenager thriving in one of the most tough leagues in the world that usually means their hockey IQ is in the right place. I've watched nearly all of the games from Jokerit and for him to fail to take the next step would be a colossal misjudge of player potential, I'd probably go read some scouting tutorials if that happened.

 

[Parliament]

Its 8 games, you don't overreact to 8 games and training camp. Its also not like other guys drafted before him have given them major reason to drop them. The only guy drafted in the first round who has given people serious reasons to re-evaluate their stock is Tolvanen, and that's because he's played 27 games at a level almost unheard of in that league.

I mean, Chytil could be bumped up, but the same type of argument could be made for Liljegren. Guys like Suzuki, Robert Thomas, and Glass are dominating their respective leagues. Outside of Vilardi, I don't really see the argument to knock anyone down, and Vilardi is purely based on continual injury issues.

First and foremost I don't necessarily disagree with you; it's only been 8 games and a training camp. The reality is Chytil's sample size isn't huge. The "problem" (I don't actually consider it a problem lol) I have with this mindset is you're going to run into the same issue for every other prospect in this draft. Whether it's 8 games or 28, both aren't much to go on. So I don't really feel it's fair to use that as a reason to discount what Chytil's done since he was drafted.

I do disagree with the point you made about Chytil not being a player who was drafted in the first round that has given people serious reason to re-evaluate their stock. But that's fine - it's a rather subjective topic, and it's far too early to say who's right and wrong.

 

[Mugzy97]

On a serious note, this draft looks way more impressive than the "experts" on here thought.

Based on what? I don't think you can make that assumption for at least 2 years.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'd put him at 16

0 way I'd have Andersson above Chytil, among Ranger draft picks. He's a much better player and prospect already.

 

[Fantomas]

By the way have you watched a lot of his games this season?

Yeah, I agree that he's taking advantage of the space as he should be. Eeli's shot is only one part of the equation. He is a fast and agile skater already, strips pucks with excellent back-checking and his vision isn't clouded whatsoever, quite the opposite, I would call him a very creative player. If anything, he's been missing a lot of chances lately and could have scored a lot more points than he already has. Also while he's taking advantage of that space, he is often the one creating it (having O'Neill in the middle certainly doesn't hurt). When you are doing this well and actually thrive in most aspects of the game, the results kind of speak for themselves. I would say a top 10 or top 15 is an understatement at this point. It's a crapshoot to even have a successful NHL career when drafted at that range. You need to have top end talent to be able to score ~PPG at this age in the KHL. Sure some crappy teams in that league as well, but producing really hasn't been an issue for him no matter the opponent.

When you have a teenager thriving in one of the most tough leagues in the world that usually means their hockey IQ is in the right place. I've watched nearly all of the games from Jokerit and for him to fail to take the next step would be a colossal misjudge of player potential, I'd probably go read some scouting tutorials if that happened.

Not a lot - a handful of Tolvanen's games, though not in person. I think enough to get an idea.

I am not doubting him as much as I am remarking on the league context. He works with what he has and he is making the best of it.

But on some of his goals he is getting the kind of time to let go of his shot that he won't receive in North America. Of course no one is expecting him to score at this rate in the NHL yet. It's just a caveat.

 

[ijuka]

Tolvanen has risen a lot for sure. In a redraft he's top 10 for me, top 15 at least. One hesitation with me is that he is taking advantage of all the extra space he gets on the big KHL ice and with that style of play. It is ideal for his shot.

In the NHL he will get less room to maneuver. 8 games, 30 games - doesn't matter, one can't know. But he has done enough to see his stock grow.

And history shows teams get picks colossally, laughably wrong every single year.

He doesn't really need too much time and space. He's actually had some very impressive manoeuvres in small spaces. And he can do other stuff too.

Kind of reminds me of the talk about Laine not succeeding without time and space. And how unfounded did that end up being?

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Ryan Poehling (25th overall) is the best forward on the #1 team in the NCAA. 3 goals and 7 assists in 7 games. Also the leading U19 scorer in college, he has the highest U20 points per game too.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

What I got from this thread is very early cancer. Close this shit. Who does re-draft 1 month into the season after a draft do? Some injured players may have not even played a game till now, hilarious shit.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

What I got from this thread is very early cancer. Close this ****. Who does re-draft 1 month into the season after a draft do? Some injured players may have not even played a game till now, hilarious ****.

Relax, buddy. It's just a forum!

 

[Team Cozens]

1. Hischier
2. Petterson
3. Patrick
4. Heiskanen
5. Mittelstadt
6. Makar
7. Vilardi
8. Glass
9. Chytil **
10. Poehling **
11. Tolvanen
12. Necas
13. Valimaki
14.Brannstrom
15. Yamamoto **

** My early risers since the draft

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Relax, buddy. It's just a forum!

Maybe next August we can do re-draft of the 2018 draft then, cause it seems we are doing pointless stuff around here and prospects camp is enough sample size to decide how a player will look for the next 15 years

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Maybe next August we can do re-draft of the 2018 draft then, cause it seems we are doing pointless stuff around here and prospects camp is enough sample size to decide how a player will look for the next 15 years

This topic will be rehashed 50 times over the next 20 years. It's just a fun exercise

 

[Fantomas]

He doesn't really need too much time and space. He's actually had some very impressive manoeuvres in small spaces. And he can do other stuff too.

Kind of reminds me of the talk about Laine not succeeding without time and space. And how unfounded did that end up being?

Just so that I am being clear: I am not saying a) that Tolvanen cannot maneuver in small spaces, but rather that b) in the KHL he is given more space with which to work. In fact some of his goals I have seen have been precisely the result of having the kind of space only international ice can provide. So it remains to be seen what he will actually do in a tighter North American professional environment.

I don't know why basic comprehension is so difficult for some people. I am not even criticizing Tolvanen here.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

This topic will be rehashed 50 times over the next 20 years. It's just a fun exercise

Must have missed the fun bit, cause this is a complete shishow discussion here

 

[LeafChief]

What I got from this thread is very early cancer. Close this ****. Who does re-draft 1 month into the season after a draft do? Some injured players may have not even played a game till now, hilarious ****.

I'm with this guy.

 

[Doublechin]

You're truly showing you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about in all these prospects thread. Poehling has 10 points in 7 games in the NCAA, as one of the youngest players in the league, while being a very complete player. There is nothing about that that makes it any ways justifiable to have him drop, even if you did not "agree" with his initial drafting position - possibly, and surely, due to him not scoring that much as a 17 years old in the NCAA, eh.
It's a small sample size, but it's all these assumptions are based on for the redraft so far, and this small sample size can't allow you to have him drop out of the 1st round.

I'm saying this as someone who did not like the pick that much either at the time, because I saw his ceiling as a 3rd line C, but he's showing he could have the potential of being an efficient, responsible 2-way 2nd line center.

both Pierre Lebrun and Pierre McGuire mentioned his during their segments on the Montreal radio show saying he's playing exceptionally well and that everyone around him is thrilled at how complete his game is at such a young age.

disregard what idiots say. you won't find anybody who's watched him cal his game mediocre this year.

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

Tolvanen isn't even close to Pettersson. Comical.

Why wasn't he playing in the EHT? Sweden's coaching staff casually ignored a player far superior to Tolvanen (who was the best forward for Finland), comical indeed.

 

[Hagged]

The people who say "it's too early for a re-draft" in a thread named "Very Early Redraft" generally are fine with doing a redraft after a year, half a year or something like that. Also they seem to be fine with quarterly or monthly pre-draft lists. I have always had a hard time comprehending how prospect value changes would be tied to an arbitrary clock, defined by specific movements of a specific planet around one star in the cosmos, instead of the prospect value being in continuous change, practice by practice, game by game and thus being open for discussion.

 

[M2Beezy]

Must have missed the fun bit, cause this is a complete shishow discussion here

You dont have to be here if you dont like the discussion. As a rule i dont check out the fantasy section because Im not interested in it. Never once have i gone there to tell everyone in that forum that its cancerous or the worst discussion ever. I just stay out. Maybe try the same bub?

 

[Ippenator]

You dont have to be here if you dont like the discussion. As a rule i dont check out the fantasy section because Im not interested in it. Never once have i gone there to tell everyone in that forum that its cancerous or the worst discussion ever. I just stay out. Maybe try the same bub?

Very well said and I also wish that much more posters here took this good advice posted here. What is the need to control how people discuss hockey on these boards, as long as it doesn’t consist of personal insults at each others. I really don’t get the need that some people have on controlling other people’s opinions or style of discussion.

 

[4thline]

IMO this early it's impossible to do a complete re-ordering, but some broader stroke ideas can be seen.

A. Hischier/Patrick/Heiskanen- have done nothing to jeopardize their pre-draft standing
B. Liljegren/Tolvanen/Kostin- making it seem like the reasons for their mid-season--> end of season --> draft day falls were unfounded
C. Poehling/Yamamoto/ Chytil- making a case to have been underrated on draft day. (Sidenote- screw the Habs for nabbing Poehling, he was my steal at 17 until Liljegren fell.

Within 3 and after 3 the ball is completely up in the air in terms of specific order