Speculation: Vancouver offer for Subban

[JianYang]

A real first line center must be a 60 points guy though. IMO there's absolutely no question about it. People always talk about how Bergeron is the weakest first line center to win the cup but the guy was a regular 60 points guy and he had 70 points seasons. In career Bergeron is a 62.13 points over 82 games guy. And it's not like he was playing with Ovy quality wingers. We always talk about Toews defensive prowess but he is still in career a 70.01 points over 82 games guy. He had the chance to play with Kane on the PP and Hossa at ES but he's still producing offensively. He's having an average year (on pace for 53 points in 82 games) and the Hawks are out of the playoffs for now.

As far as i'm concerned a 50 points guy is not a first line center no matter how guy he is defensively. Horvat is still young and could progress but so far he has not shown the ability to be a regular 60 points guy (unless he would be paired width elite wingers).

Horvat is not a finished product, and I'd be shocked if he's peaked at the age of 22 in terms of points. Scoring 52 points at the age of 21 on a bad team should be seen as promising. He was on pace to eclipse that mark this season, and I see no reason why he can't continue to progress based on what I've seen.

As far as bergeron goes, I have considered him a premier #1C for many years. He can absolutely score some more points IMO, but he seems to take extra pride away from the puck, and when you combine how great he is in that aspect with his production, you got a real good thing.

I'm also not one to knock toews. At one point, I considered him the best C not named crosby. He's still pretty good.

Here's my main take.... given the information that has come out, I think it's reasonable to conclude that the Habs were going to trade subban, and that they had an internal deadline to do it. If so, then you have already lost leverage, but having said that, any Canucks offer revolving around tanev, horvat, and more? That's a great return in a bad situation, and I would take it over Weber in a heartbeat, as much as I like Weber.

 

[hotcarle]

Even better yet would have been just merely standing pat and doing nothing.

Keep Eller
Keep Subban
Draft Sergachev
Draft Debrincat/Girard (that’s best case, we probably don’t draft both)

That’s where I deviate, I would have traded Pacioretty that offseason. His stock was as high as ever, he still had 3 years on that great contract and his playoff ineffectiveness still wasn’t completely glaring.

My logic why we'd draft both was that one was a Q dman we technically should have seen quite a bit, who was once projected as top 20 but fell because of his size. And Debrincat I figured we'd draft because we had 2 2nd so we could take a risk on an offensive impact player (small as he is) as we are absolutely starved for finishers since forever.

 

[LaP]

Here's my main take.... given the information that has come out, I think it's reasonable to conclude that the Habs were going to trade subban, and that they had an internal deadline to do it. If so, then you have already lost leverage, but having said that, any Canucks offer revolving around tanev, horvat, and more? That's a great return in a bad situation, and I would take it over Weber in a heartbeat, as much as I like Weber.

Horvat, Tanev and the 5th pick for Subban+ is indeed a good return. And yes it's better than just Weber. Horvat is a good 2nd line center with the potential to maybe become more. Tanev is a defensive top 4. THe 5th pick could have been Keller and it looks like he has the potential to be a first line center. Would be surprising if none of Keller and Horvat blossom into a first line center to me. So that's a 1st line center, a 2nd line center and a defensive top 4 guy. If you can pull that without adding too much pieces to Subban (maybe both 2nd round picks we had 39th and 45th) then it can potentially be very good because the 9th pick we had has the potential to eventually replace Subban. Would have liked this trade actually. Also this would be a young team for now and we would have likely drafted high last year and this year too. Could have definitely turned out to be a good and effective retool.

Potential team in 2-3 years with this trade

Patch-Keller-AG
Scherbak-Horvat-Gallagher
Hudon-Danault-Lehkonen

Sergachev-Tanev
Mete-Petry
Juulsen

Looks a lot more promising than what we have now.

 

[JianYang]

Horvat, Tanev and the 5th pick for Subban+ is indeed a good return. And yes it's better than just Weber. Horvat is a good 2nd line center with the potential to maybe become more. Tanev is a defensive top 4. THe 5th pick could have been Keller and it looks like he has the potential to be a first line center. Would be surprising if none of Keller and Horvat blossom into a first line center to me. So that's a 1st line center, a 2nd line center and a defensive top 4 guy. If you can pull that without adding too much pieces to Subban (maybe both 2nd round picks we had 39th and 45th) then it can potentially be very good because the 9th pick we had has the potential to eventually replace Subban. Would have liked this trade actually. Also this would be a young team for now and we would have likely drafted high last year and this year too. Could have definitely turned out to be a good and effective retool.

Potential team in 2-3 years with this trade

Patch-Keller-AG
Scherbak-Horvat-Gallagher
Hudon-Danault-Lehkonen

Sergachev-Tanev
Mete-Petry
Juulsen

Looks a lot more promising than what we have now.

I evaluate tanev and horvat higher than you. Maybe that's because I get to see/hear about them frequently, although I suppose that can also result in overrating too.

Anyways, it's hard for me to believe that if they added more to the deal, such as a 5th pick, that the Habs wouldn't have to give something else up.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Canucks also didn't try to find a way to get Gallagher in the deal as a hometown guy, and the type of player that I think benning would really value. I don't see how a deal falls in place if that happens though, because I bet MB really values a player like gallagher too.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

My logic why we'd draft both was that one was a Q dman we technically should have seen quite a bit, who was once projected as top 20 but fell because of his size. And Debrincat I figured we'd draft because we had 2 2nd so we could take a risk on an offensive impact player (small as he is) as we are absolutely starved for finishers since forever.

That’s a fine point, and it’s quite possible we’d have drafted both.

I for one definitely thought Debrincat was a target for us that year had we kept our picks.

What could’ve been...

 

[llamateizer]

Even better yet would have been just merely standing pat and doing nothing.

Keep Eller
Keep Subban
Draft Sergachev
Draft Debrincat/Girard (that’s best case, we probably don’t draft both)

That’s where I deviate, I would have traded Pacioretty that offseason. His stock was as high as ever, he still had 3 years on that great contract and his playoff ineffectiveness still wasn’t completely glaring.

is there cases beside Duchene where the key player traded ended good for the team who traded him?

I'm thinking of Schenn, Thornton and Seguin.

 

[axman88]

I'd prefer the rumored Edmonton's offer

 

[MaxDummy]

Potential team in 2-3 years with this trade

Patch-Keller-AG
Scherbak-Horvat-Gallagher
Hudon-Danault-Lehkonen

Sergachev-Tanev
Mete-Petry
Juulsen

Patch - Hudon - Gallagher
Keller - Scherbak - Galchenyuk
Horvat - Lehkonen - Danault

You got to put the players play their positions, mann.. It can't hurt them.

 

[habergeon]

That’s a fine point, and it’s quite possible we’d have drafted both.

I for one definitely thought Debrincat was a target for us that year had we kept our picks.

What could’ve been...

It's always fun looking back at drafts and seeing what could have been.

What I'm still trying to figure out (and this is not directly to the op, just everyone who shares the same opinion) is why people think we would have drafted Debrincat if we had those 2nd round picks. He doesn't exactly scream Trevor Timmins, but maybe I'm missing something.

When is the last time Timmins took a high risk / high reward type of player? Victor Mete is one that jumps to mind, but more often than not we tend to draft bigger "character" guys who can skate and have "leadership" with our risky picks (Connor Crisp anyone?).

DeBrincat was barely 160lbs when drafted, just about 5'7, not very good defensively and coming off a disastrous world juniors. There were also questions on whether he was the driver of offense or more a passenger (as he played with both McDavid & Strome). Lots of talent but lots of question marks in a very small package.

And even a guy like Girard, super talented but if you ever saw him in person he is also very very tiny.

Those guys don't look like Timmins / Churla picks on any day of the week, although I admit it would be interesting (and scary) to see who they actually drafted if given the chance with those two spots.

 

[habergeon]

Just did a quick search on the Habs and their history of drafting sub "6 footers" (I'm bored, no football today)

12 out of 64 players drafted from 2008-2017 (18.8%)

5’11
John Westin – 2010
Mike Cichy – 2009
Maxim Trunev - 2008

5’10
William Bitten – 2016
Sven Andrighetto – 2013
Sebastien Collberg – 2010
Charles Hudon – 2010

5’9
Victor Mete – 2016
Martin Reway – 2013
Brendan Gallagher – 2010
Gabriel Dumont – 2009
Patrick Johnson – 2008

5’8
NONE DRAFTED

5’7 & Under
NONE DRAFTED