Proposal: Trouba Mega thread Part V

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PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
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That is an understatement.

Really, everything we say here is unnecessary and irrelevant- unless you think that Chevy is wasting time on HF reading our posts... which, come to think of it, might explain why he's done essentially nothing to improve his team in almost a full calendar year.

Your first mistake appears to be expecting that a GM with a plan

I've heard this a lot from Jets fans- that Chevy apparently has a "plan".

Unless said plan was to purposefully:

1) Miss the playoffs four out of five years
2) Improve randomly one of those years by just enough to get swept in the franchise's first and only playoff appearance, and then bottom out by going from 99 points to 78 just as quickly the next season
3) Have his best young defender sit out, with no resolution in sight

Then I'd suggest that maybe his plan isn't exactly working or- and imagine this- maybe he's just not a good GM.

to build largely via the draft and to replace expiring contracts mainly in-house would be active in the trade market. It should really have been self-evident that a GM executing that plan would not be an active trader.

Okay, we'll play your way: Chevy's idea was to build via the draft, and he has intentionally stayed out of the trade market to accrue picks.

What, then, caused him to trade three picks for a prospect that he ended up letting go via free agency as he did in the Eddie Pasquale deal back in 2014? Why, that same year, did he trade a draft choice for Jay Harrison- and then two more in 2015 for Jiri Tlusty? Why has Winnipeg during his tenure drafted in the second round only three times in six drafts? For a GM who is "build(ing) via the draft" he doesn't seem all that interested in, well, holding onto draft picks.

Guffman said:

I wonder if we can give the Jets a banner for that?
 

JetsFan815

Registered User
Jan 16, 2012
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That's terrific. About the only data point that matters here, though, is that no team is giving up an identical player for Trouba- else, it would have happened already.

Winnipeg's best bet is to acquire a younger player who is trending in the same direction. All my comparison was meant to do was illustrate that Nurse appears to be a good candidate in that regard.

Except your comparison is terrible. Nurse is not close to Trouba or even close to trending to be like Trouba. Nurse was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last season. He had the 6th worst Relative Corsi of any defeseman in the NHL who played more than 600 mins (~50 ish games). At the same age Trouba was #45 in RelCorsi which is equivalent of a median #2 defenseman.

Maybe Nurse was not ready and rushed to the NHL and can improve in the future, either way, it shows he is not close to being the player Trouba is or even on a similar development path. There are many other younger d-men I'd rather take for Trouba over Nurse.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
3,573
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Winnipeg
Except your comparison is terrible. Nurse is not close to Trouba or even close to trending to be like Trouba.

Except that I just demonstrated he was in fact trending upwards... so...

Nurse was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last season. He had the 6th worst Relative Corsi of any defeseman in the NHL who played more than 600 mins (~50 ish games). At the same age Trouba was #45 in RelCorsi which is equivalent of an average top 4 defenseman.

That's great, but as you note later Nurse was put into a difficult position ala Draisaitl in his rookie year. Of course, there we all kinds of people claiming that Draisaitl's 2015-16 was smoke and mirrors based on his rookie season, which goes to show that when it comes to prospects, isolating individual seasons and proclaiming that to be the final and finished story is folly.

Maybe Nurse was not ready and rushed to the NHL and can improve in the future, either way, it shows he is not close to being the player Trouba is or even on a similar development path.

Newsflash: development is not linear. Again, what matters now is that Nurse has clearly improved. If you're going to tell me he hasn't, well, that's a different conversation altogether.

There are many other younger d-men I'd rather take for Trouba over Nurse.

Great, I hope the Jets get one of them. Unfortunately, with the December deadline drawing closer every single day, what they get will depend on what other teams are willing to offer- not what Chevy is asking.
 

SCP Guy

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Jun 21, 2011
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Why even bring up Nurse? Trouba will never sign with Edmonton so be happy with Nurse he is not coming to Winnipeg.
 

JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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Except that I just demonstrated he was in fact trending upwards... so...



That's great, but as you note later Nurse was put into a difficult position ala Draisaitl in his rookie year. Of course, there we all kinds of people claiming that Draisaitl's 2015-16 was smoke and mirrors based on his rookie season, which goes to show that when it comes to prospects, isolating individual seasons and proclaiming that to be the final and finished story is folly.

You did nothing of that sort. You made an asinine comparison extrapolating an 8 game sample size to entire season to say that Nurse would have the same points as Trouba's season. We have 1 full season of data on Nurse where he was just terrible and not even close to being the player that Trouba was at the same age (6th worst Rel Corsi in the NHL vs top 45). Your argument is basically selling hope. Not good enough for a player like Trouba.


Newsflash: development is not linear. Again, what matters now is that Nurse has clearly improved. If you're going to tell me he hasn't, well, that's a different conversation altogether.

I don't know if he has improved or not. It is too early to tell in the season. If he has improved great! You are saying "he is not good enough now but might might might be good enough one day" without any evidence to support that. The same argument can be made for any defensive prospect. What makes Nurse more attractive than say Kylington? With the data available to us, he is a lottery ticket. A player like Trouba does not get traded for a lottery ticket by a decent GM.

Great, I hope the Jets get one of them. Unfortunately, with the December deadline drawing closer every single day, what they get will depend on what other teams are willing to offer- not what Chevy is asking.

Exactly, which is why Trouba sits at home or signs and plays with the Jets. Simple as that. Jets have said what they want for Trouba (and it's not close to what Nurse is). If they don't get it, Trouba has to sign a contract with them before Dec 1 or lose a year of his NHL career without getting any closer to UFA. I know what the rational choice here is
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
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Kypreos on HNIC said he heard Jets ask from Boston was Spooner, Carlo, and 1st for Trouba which is too rich for the Bruins

If the 1st is top ten protected the B's might have to consider it, but how would they work the cap?

Don't see it fitting the Jet's needs, though it's good value. They've got plenty of prospects, they need players, preferably young vets.
 

Guffman

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Apr 7, 2016
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What, then, caused him to trade three picks for a prospect that he ended up letting go via free agency as he did in the Eddie Pasquale deal back in 2014? Why, that same year, did he trade a draft choice for Jay Harrison- and then two more in 2015 for Jiri Tlusty? Why has Winnipeg during his tenure drafted in the second round only three times in six drafts? For a GM who is "build(ing) via the draft" he doesn't seem all that interested in, well, holding onto draft picks.

You seem to get very excited about the relevancy of sixth and seventh round draft picks (e.g., the currency used for Pasquale and Harrison). FYI...no one is building a franchise around late round draft picks rofl. That was a very weak point for you to even make reference to these trades.

Tlusty was an interesting rental trade. The Jets were doing well and at the trade deadline, you tend to be buyers to supplement a run. The Jets ended up being swept so they decided to go full on with the youth movement.

You point out the missing 2nd rounders but neglect to mention the four 1st rounders in the past two years. Why? Because it doesn't fit your narative?

Many hockey commentators look favourably to what the Jets have compiled. We're expecting great results in the next 2-4 years. If it doesn't happen, then the franchise can be fairly critiqued.

It's rather premature to roast Chevy given the exciting players he's accumulated.
 

Pia8988

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May 26, 2014
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If the 1st is top ten protected the B's might have to consider it, but how would they work the cap?

Don't see it fitting the Jet's needs, though it's good value. They've got plenty of prospects, they need players, preferably young vets.

Carlo is the deal breaker for Boston. They're very happy with him and he continues to play 22+ minutes a night.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
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Why even bring up Nurse? Trouba will never sign with Edmonton so be happy with Nurse he is not coming to Winnipeg.

Exactly.
I think Nurse and a 1st(EDM's 1st is likely to be in the mid/late teens, if not higher) is decent value for both sides, but i don't see Trouba signing with EDM.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
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Winnipeg
You did nothing of that sort. You made an asinine comparison extrapolating an 8 game sample size to entire season to say that Nurse would have the same points as Trouba's season.

It's called pace, or are you not familiar with the concept?

We have 1 full season of data on Nurse where he was just terrible and not even close to being the player that Trouba was at the same age (6th worst Rel Corsi in the NHL vs top 45).

Again, this is the same line of reasoning that was used against Draisaitl last year when he started hot out of the gate. He eventually ended the year silencing all doubt about being a legitimate top six center, and is back at it with nearly a point a game this season. Welcome to the trials and tribulations of most young players.

Your argument is basically selling hope. Not good enough for a player like Trouba.

All young players involve some element of hope. Are you suggesting Trouba will never be more than a 20-point #4?

I don't know if he has improved or not. It is too early to tell in the season. If he has improved great!

In other words, you haven't done your homework. Duly noted.

You are saying "he is not good enough now but might might might be good enough one day" without any evidence to support that.

And we have no evidence Trouba will be more than he is today. Quick, better move him.

The same argument can be made for any defensive prospect. What makes Nurse more attractive than say Kylington?

Well, beyond Kylington having fewer points in the AHL, nothing I suppose.

With the data available to us, he is a lottery ticket.

Except he's not. Players don't emerge from nothingness. We have plenty of data about Nurse's year-by-year development and his overall pedigree. You can choose to believe none of that means anything, but that's on you.

A player like Trouba does not get traded for a lottery ticket by a decent GM.

I'm not sure what Chevy has done to be deemed a decent GM, so the likelihood of such a move may be higher than you think.

As an aside- Kyle Connor. What a lottery ticket, that guy. Just one goal in 7 games. We have no idea what he's going to be, if anything. I'd be willing to trade proven NHLer Matt Hendricks for him, though. That's nearly 500 NHL GP of experience. Let me know if that works.

Jets have said what they want for Trouba (and it's not close to what Nurse is).

And as such they're the ones in a position of weakness. No teams has to meet their demands. He's not going to make or break playoffs for any club.

If they don't get it, Trouba has to sign a contract with them before Dec 1 or lose a year of his NHL career without getting any closer to UFA. I know what the rational choice here is

Trouba's definition of rational may well diverge from Chevy's given that what he's seeking is long-term security for his significant other, not himself.

He can continue to practice in Detroit, marry his girlfriend and support her emotionally while she attends medical school in the US- something that she can't do in Canada as an Australian national. That's apparently more important to him than an NHL career, and I say good on him for it. The kid's probably banked somewhere in the neighborhood of a million bucks and that's a decent head start in life. Coupled with his connections in the hockey world and the free time to attend U. Mich to finish his own degree, and the Jets/Chevy don't have to be anywhere near the top of his mind.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg throws away a prime asset out of sheer spite and continues to wander in the wilderness as a franchise. That, or they trade him; I know what the rational choice here is.
 
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57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
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Carlo is the deal breaker for Boston. They're very happy with him and he continues to play 22+ minutes a night.

Got your Parayko?

Bruins desperately need Dmen, so if Carlo is doing it for you, so be it. The price is certainly right. I still think that the Wild and B's should work out a deal for a D. Folin is starting to look solid this year, making our defensive depth look ridiculous. I have some ideas, but that's for another thread...
 

Pia8988

Registered User
May 26, 2014
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Got your Parayko?

Bruins desperately need Dmen, so if Carlo is doing it for you, so be it. The price is certainly right. I still think that the Wild and B's should work out a deal for a D. Folin is starting to look solid this year, making our defensive depth look ridiculous. I have some ideas, but that's for another thread...

He doesn't have the shot of Parayko, but in his own zone and on the PK he's been great. He's made some mistakes, but that should be expected of a 19 year old.

“He’s given me no reason to not want to put him out there,” Julien said after practice at Warrior Ice Arena on Friday. “He’s got a great stick, got great composure, he blocks shots. He does the right things. To me right now he’s not playing like a first-year player. He’s playing like a player that’s been in the league for quite a while.”

Got 18 minutes in his first game, 22~+ since playing next to Chara against the other teams best. In close games late, Carlo has been the guy out there to help hold the lead.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
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Winnipeg
You seem to get very excited about the relevancy of sixth and seventh round draft picks (e.g., the currency used for Pasquale and Harrison). FYI...no one is building a franchise around late round draft picks rofl. That was a very weak point for you to even make reference to these trades.

So Chevy's plan is not to build through the draft. Okay, so what is it then? Can you folks get on the same page if you're going to invent stuff?

Tlusty was an interesting rental trade. The Jets were doing well and at the trade deadline, you tend to be buyers to supplement a run. The Jets ended up being swept so they decided to go full on with the youth movement.

So his plan changed mid-stream... that would seem to support the idea his first one wasn't very good. It could also indicate that he isn't able to stick to his own plans. Why then did he not add picks this summer? Why move a 7th away for a pick next year? Doesn't line up.

You point out the missing 2nd rounders but neglect to mention the four 1st rounders in the past two years. Why? Because it doesn't fit your narative?

The draft is more than one round long, and teams who truly build through the draft try to amass as many picks as possible. Not Chevy, though; when Kev's on it to grow his team that way, he trades picks. What a brilliant hockey mind.

Many hockey commentators look favourably to what the Jets have compiled. We're expecting great results in the next 2-4 years.

And the Oilers were expecting great results from Rita, and then from Gagner and Nilsson, and then from RNH and Hall. It's easy to sell the future.

If it doesn't happen, then the franchise can be fairly critiqued.

The team's made the playoffs once in five years. They can and should be open to criticism right now, especially since the "mastermind" behind that "plan" is still running things.

It's rather premature to roast Chevy given the exciting players he's accumulated.

Edmonton's catchphrase- somewhat cynically- was HOPE; is Winnipeg's EXCITING?
 
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Paradise*

Individual thinker
Jun 9, 2010
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What, then, caused him to trade three picks for a prospect that he ended up letting go via free agency as he did in the Eddie Pasquale deal back in 2014?
You've read the deal backwards. It was the Jets receiving the 3 picks (6th + 7th + 7th) for Pasquale + 6th. VERY low end deal. Why bother?

, that same year, did he trade a draft choice for Jay Harrison
We had a lot of injuries (Enstrom, Bogo, Trouba) to our D and needed a warm body for cheap (6th). He actually played decently. It helped that he already knew Maurice's system. Low end move.

then two more in 2015 for Jiri Tlusty?
We were making a playoff push. A '15 5th + '16 3rd. Obviously didn't work out great (in hindsight), but those are the TDL prices paid.

Why has Winnipeg during his tenure drafted in the second round only three times in six drafts?
1st year we didn't own a 2nd (it was already traded). 2013 we had 2 2nd's. 2014 we traded for Setoguchi (busted). 2015 we owned 2 1st's + our 2nd. 2016 the 2nd was used to move up (not a fan) in the 1st.

For a GM who is "build(ing) via the draft" he doesn't seem all that interested in, well, holding onto draft picks.
Total picks:
2011 - 7
2012 - 6
2013 - 10
2014 - 7
2015 - 8
2016 - 6

We've also had 8 1st's in 6 years and have yet to trade 1 away.
 

ffh

Registered User
Jul 16, 2016
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It's called pace, or are you not familiar with the concept?



Again, this is the same line of reasoning that was used against Draisaitl last year when he started hot out of the gate. He eventually ended the year silencing all doubt about being a legitimate top six center, and is back at it with nearly a point a game this season. Welcome to the trials and tribulations of most young players.



All young players involve some element of hope. Are you suggesting Trouba will never be more than a 20-point #4?



In other words, you haven't done your homework. Duly noted.



And we have no evidence Trouba will be more than he is today. Quick, better move him.



Well, beyond Kylington having fewer points in the AHL, nothing I suppose.



Except he's not. Players don't emerge from nothingness. We have plenty of data about Nurse's year-by-year development and his overall pedigree. You can choose to believe none of that means anything, but that's on you.



I'm not sure what Chevy has done to be deemed a decent GM, so the likelihood of such a move may be higher than you think.

As an aside- Kyle Connor. What a lottery ticket, that guy. Just one goal in 7 games. We have no idea what he's going to be, if anything. I'd be willing to trade proven NHLer Matt Hendricks for him, though. That's nearly 500 NHL GP of experience. Let me know if that works.



And as such they're the ones in a position of weakness. No teams has to meet their demands. He's not going to make or break playoffs for any club.



Trouba's definition of rational may well diverge from Chevy's given that what he's seeking is long-term security for his significant other, not himself.

He can continue to practice in Detroit, marry his girlfriend and support her emotionally while she attends medical school in the US- something that she can't do in Canada as an Australian national. That's apparently more important to him than an NHL career, and I say good on him for it. The kid's probably banked somewhere in the neighborhood of a million bucks and that's a decent head start in life. Coupled with his connections in the hockey world and the free time to attend U. Mich to finish his own degree, and the Jets/Chevy don't have to be anywhere near the top of his mind.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg throws away a prime asset out of sheer spite and continues to wander in the wilderness as a franchise. That, or they trade him; I know what the rational choice here is.

re your kyle connor comment. its to bad your gm traded away pick 16 and 33 for a ahl lifer but I guess if he didn't connor would be on your team. I hope reignhart makes the nhl 1 day that's such a steep price to pay for a turnstile. also connor has as many goals as puljujarvi, and after watching him play I know why the only finnish gm didn't want to draft him. I'm sure reighart and puljujarvi will tear up the ahl this year.
 

JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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So now that you've finished with the outliers, how about everyone else? Pace is a very real concept. For most players, you can isolate a random sample from their season and arrive at a number similar to their year-end PPG.

Here's a good example: Trouba started 2015-16 with exactly 2 points in 8 GP, or 0.25 PPG- 20.5 points over 82 games. He finished the year with... you guessed it, 21 points in 81 games. Guess it's not such a ridiculous concept after all, huh?

My examples show that an 8 game sample is meaningless. Esp for a player who had only 5 worse d-men than him in the entire league and most of the players with numbers like him are either not in the league anymore (Cowen), or not gettting regular starts (Stuart) or are bad contracts stuck with the team for the forseeable future (Andy McDonald). It seems to me Nurse is more likely to fall off, esp considering he has only 2 primary points, is playing the easiest minutes out of any Oiler getting the most Offensive-to-Defensive zone starts(56%) and easiest quality of competition. Clearly the coach doesn't trust him enough. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls off although I imagine he will get a few secondary assists after he is fed PP time.

As noted, I never said it was a hot start, which is to Nurse's benefit actually- he's playing a stable, controlled and sustainable game. You've already admitted to not doing your homework on the player, so I don't know why you'd even try to argue otherwise.

Nah, Nurse is what he is, he has never produced at a particularly great level for a defensemen in Jrs. Struggled in the NHL, only the Oilers who have been deprived of good defensive prospects would rate him highly.

Still stuck to one season. It seems like that's the only argument you have.

It takes a special level of being bad to have only 5 defensemen in the league who have worse shot metrics than, that is such a shocking statistic. I don't think you appreciate how bad it is to do that in league of 220 + dmen. It's the bottom 2%. It's so bad that if you try to see it in a HERO chart it would be off the charts. It needs to be weighed heavily when discussing a trade for a prime asset like Trouba.

Actually, Nurse had 1 point in 4 AHL games at age 19. That's the same pace.
Interesing so he regressed from his 19 year old season to his 20 year old season? That is worrying esp for a prospect who never put up numbers like you would expect from a 6th overall pick. Also very worrying that Kylington a 60th overall pick would outproduce him despite being a year younger.

I never said it was an asinine; if you have to invent words to deconstruct someone else's argument, I don't know that you're really succeeding.

You said that Chevy might be stupid enough to make that trade. He may or may not be, but I thank your acknowledgement of how terrible Trouba for Nurse trade is.

It would actually be closer to Connor (0.29 PPG) for McCann or Virtanen (one year older, 0.23 PPG). If you're going to make analogies to prove your point, please at least try and be somewhat realistic.

Nah, it would be like trading like the 6th worst d-man in the entire league statistically for a bonafide #2 defenseman at the same age. I know it's hard for you to hear but truth must be spoken :laugh: But you're right, the gulf between Connor and Larkin is less than that between Nurse and Trouba.


Paul Ranger walked away from the game once upon a time. It happens. In any case, what I presented were facts on his present situation; you don't have any rebuttal beyond a GIF of Jennifer Lawrence. Again, for someone who is supposed to be "deconstructing" my logic, you're doing a poor job.

Your argument is like someone who doesn't know how to swim kick around as they are drowning in the ocean. Non-sensical, illinformed and poorly constructed. That gif of the lovely Jennifer Lawrence probably gave you more respect than the silliness of your "player will leave 26 million dollars on the table" argument deserved.
 

BBKers

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Jan 9, 2006
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Still garbage, utter garbage.

A player the Jets don't need (Miller), a ridiculously bad d-man (Holden - pretty sure the Jets would laugh openly at that given his past play for Colorado against the Jets), and a guy in McIllraith that the entire league just took a pass on this past week at the low price of a waiver claim.

Not only could the Bruins and Detroit beat that, but a good chunk of the league could by simply offering futures (which are preferable to present day garbage).

McIllraith - LOL

I agree that Holden is not that good (understatement) utilized in a top role - which is now the case in NYC (as he was played in Denver) - also now playing on the offside RD. That being said, he would almost certainly be an amicable solution on almost any NHL team at LD on their bottom pairing - especially playing his correct side. It is just that the moronic "HC" AV believes he is the second coming of Bobby Orr and plays him as such.

Miller is good and getting better and will be a constant all around, two-way NHL producer with a bite to his game for the next decade. Just like Trouba will likely become on D, who has in reality not really proven that much yet - although he oozes lots of potential.

McIlraith was waived (likely by uniformed GM consent) to actually make him more attractive in a trade. He no longer needs to be on the NHL roster immediately, perhaps complicating other acquiring teams roster matters, and can now be recalled without having to go through waivers thereby making him more valuable in the AHL than as a current pressbox NYR NHL D - frozen in suspense in AVs pathetic Chateau Bow-wow (this sounds a bit out there - but such is actually the case here).

You guys will love Big Mac in Winnipeg if he goes there. For real! Old-time hockey school Defender that has a bit of upside to him. But not a relic. Terrible choice in the draft over Tarasenko, Schwartz and Fowler, but that has been beaten to death already. Great crease clearer, board player and with a good hard, low shot that would definitely benefit from Zone D and not AVs insane man to man. And I also think his outlet is pretty good too - but the other Rangers sorry state of hand grenade passing perhaps leaves me jaded. He is a physical beast that can really punish yet still play hockey and is a huge team guy. A force to unite around in the tougher Western Conference. Manitoba HomeBoy that will certainly sell lots of merchandise if given the chance on the local stage (not talking about fighting only which he excels at but is slowly being taken outta the game). But he takes some penalties and skates a bit poorly laterally (especially on one on ones hence he should be playing 5/6 D). NHL player for sure, especially in the right environment where Winnipeg likely is - and some.

For arguments sake - then in my somewhat conservative proposal replace Holden with Skjei (or Graves) and add Glass then as well. We can take a couple of lousy contracts at/under $950.000 from you as well. Stashing/keeping Glass in the minors is an easy move if you like. His contract is done this year anyways. His salary is "only" one million (important for the Peg as we know) and is less now soon a month into the season prorated wise - yet he carries a 1,4 M cap hit (no matter to swallow for a non contending team this season).

Miller (1st rounder), Skjei (1st rounder), McIllraith (1st rounder - already waived in AHL), Glass (for cap purposes only - already waived in AHL) AND NYR 2018 2nd for Trouba, a prospect, 1-2 warm AHL bodies (to even out contracts) and a mid level 2017 pick.

Take it or leave it.

You may get more elsewhere (Chevy --- and Murray too btw --- both are supposedly trying to wrench Pastranak from Boston but Sweeney wants none of this), but that is an overpayment from NYR that I would be very hesitant to give up for an unsigned holdout player (requesting a trade outside Canada in addition) that has a bit to prove yet to attain the NHL value that some here dumwittingly believe in.

Time will tell
 
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kunekune

Registered User
Feb 17, 2016
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Jets don't have to trade him. If the offers are Nurse or Miller+Skei Trouba is going sit the year and dealt next summer. His value doesnt drop too much and he has to take really small contract next summer, so his value might actuakky rise if Jets sit him the year.

It's looking more and more likely.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
35,793
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Trouba on the Oilers would be awesome. It would add our much need RHD. And he's a good player with some size and grit, fitting the mould of the new Oilers. That being said, **** Trouba. I don't respect any player that won't play for the team that he rightfully should be playing for. No amount of reasoning justifies this. Other players suck it up and are honoured even to be in the NHL despite not having the ice time or city or whatever he thinks he deserves.

I hope the Jets let him rot for his selfish move. Good on the Jets, don't move him until the value exceeds Trouba, otherwise let Trouba continue to screw up his career.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
3,573
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Winnipeg
My examples show that an 8 game sample is meaningless.

Well, you failed mightily. You were just shown a very clear example of a player maintaining their opening pace over the course of an entire season after insisting that doesn't happen. Well done.

Esp for a player who had only 5 worse d-men than him in the entire league and most of the players with numbers like him are either not in the league anymore (Cowen), or not gettting regular starts (Stuart) or are bad contracts stuck with the team for the forseeable future (Andy McDonald).

But that's no longer relevant. Again, your relying on this one data point is to assume all young players are doomed to repeat their first season. If that was the case, Joe Thornton would never have been a 0.5 PPG player never mind one capable of 90+ assists. You keep repeating this without any other evidence of note.

It seems to me Nurse is more likely to fall off, esp considering he has only 2 primary points, is playing the easiest minutes out of any Oiler getting the most Offensive-to-Defensive zone starts(56%) and easiest quality of competition. Clearly the coach doesn't trust him enough. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls off although I imagine he will get a few secondary assists after he is fed PP time.

He's being handled with kid gloves, and I think that's a perfectly acceptable approach. It's up to Nurse to keep producing and earning his coach's trust, but 20 points is still 20 points. As said, he'd have to net fewer than 17 over the next 73 games to miss that mark. After that, he's only gaining on Trouba offensively.

Nah, Nurse is what he is, he has never produced at a particularly great level for a defensemen in Jrs.

Incorrect once again. It's clear you aren't doing your homework. Nurse finished second among all OHL draft eligibles in points in 2012-13, tied for 10th among all D his next year, and was at a PPG in his partial last year. He was also SSM's scoring leader in the 2014 playoffs.

Struggled in the NHL, only the Oilers who have been deprived of good defensive prospects would rate him highly.

A slam on the Oilers- that's a new dimension to your posts, but not surprising considering you've brought little in the way of substance.

It takes a special level of being bad to have only 5 defensemen in the league who have worse shot metrics than, that is such a shocking statistic. I don't think you appreciate how bad it is to do that in league of 220 + dmen. It's the bottom 2%. It's so bad that if you try to see it in a HERO chart it would be off the charts. It needs to be weighed heavily when discussing a trade for a prime asset like Trouba.

It needs to be weighed no more and no less than Draisaitl's difficult 2014-15 season does today when assessing his trade value. That is, it has no bearing.

Interesing so he regressed from his 19 year old season to his 20 year old season? That is worrying esp for a prospect who never put up numbers like you would expect from a 6th overall pick. Also very worrying that Kylington a 60th overall pick would outproduce him despite being a year younger.

Wrong on the facts once more. Nurse has consistently improved year-over-year offensively in every league he's spent significant time in:

OHL:

11-12: 0.19 PPG
12-13: 0.60 PPG
13-14: 0.78 PPG
14-15: 0.92 PPG

NHL:

15-16: 0.14 PPG
16-17: 0.38 PPG

You said that Chevy might be stupid enough to make that trade. He may or may not be, but I thank your acknowledgement of how terrible Trouba for Nurse trade is.

Wrong again. What I actually said was:

I'm not sure what Chevy has done to be deemed a decent GM

My point was solely around his professed competence as a general manager; you were the one to tie it into whether he'd then make the move or not.

Nah, it would be like trading like the 6th worst d-man in the entire league statistically for a bonafide #2 defenseman at the same age. I know it's hard for you to hear but truth must be spoken :laugh:

If you want to use a singular statistical category, okay. But that also means Erik Karlsson is the worst in the league because he led all D in shots against last year. Both stats mean just about the same in terms of evaluating a player overall- that is, a very, very small part of the picture.

But you're right, the gulf between Connor and Larkin is less than that between Nurse and Trouba.

You tried to play it off smart with an analogy that was deeply flawed and got caught. Not really my fault.

As it is, Connor (0.29 PPG) compares to one-year-older McCann (0.23 PPG) in the same way Nurse (0.38 PPG) compares to one-year-older Trouba (0.34 PPG); one is different by 0.06 PPG and the other by 0.04. You won't find a closer match- Connor and Larkin, meanwhile, is nearly double the difference.

Your argument is like someone who doesn't know how to swim kick around as they are drowning in the ocean. Non-sensical, illinformed and poorly constructed.

Just claiming that you are right isn't how one wins an argument. Presenting actual facts and numbers is; unfortunately, you were shown to be in the wrong four times in just your last post alone. You can go through them and count.

Here, look, I'll do for it you:

-Arguing pace is not a real thing and then being given an example of the very player this thread is about maintaining their 8-game opening pace for 81.

-Claiming Nurse never produced at a "particularly great level", while finishing 2nd in his draft year in points, 10th the next and a PPG his last- all the definition of "particularly great level".

-Further claiming Nurse had not improved on his production year-over-year, when a basic examination of the numbers showed his PPG actually did increase every year.

-Finally, trying to suggest that two numbers 0.06 apart is a greater difference than 0.33, which is not only incorrect but a staggeringly bad application of math.

Without even counting your factually incorrect claims about NHL history, posts literally just up the page and the application of advanced stats, that's four times you came up short via hard numbers...

That gif of the lovely Jennifer Lawrence probably gave you more respect than the silliness of your "player will leave 26 million dollars on the table" argument deserved.

...and no amount of deflecting with GIFs can or will help your case. Try all the memes, analogies and diversions you want, but the facts aren't with you and that's patently obvious. Everyone can quite plainly see you coming up short time and time again.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
3,573
989
Winnipeg
Jets don't have to trade him. If the offers are Nurse or Miller+Skei Trouba is going sit the year and dealt next summer. His value doesnt drop too much and he has to take really small contract next summer, so his value might actuakky rise if Jets sit him the year.

It's looking more and more likely.

He doesn't really have to do anything, but is the Turris route (re: signing and then playing like **** until a trade) really the ideal end game here for Winnipeg?

Even then, the Coyotes returned significantly less than either of those packages... well, unless you think Rundblad + 2nd is better than Nurse or Miller and Brady Skjei.
 

PatrikOverAuston

Laine > Matthews
Jun 22, 2016
3,573
989
Winnipeg
McIlraith was waived (likely by uniformed GM consent) to actually make him more attractive in a trade. He no longer needs to be on the NHL roster immediately, perhaps complicating other acquiring teams roster matters, and can now be recalled without having to go through waivers thereby making him more valuable in the AHL than as a current pressbox NYR NHL D - frozen in suspense in AVs pathetic Chateau Bow-wow (this sounds a bit out there - but such is actually the case here).

Yeah, I don't know why this still confuses people. Trades happen quite often after a player passes through waivers; that doesn't make that them worth any "more" or "less", it just indicates that no team is willing to sacrifice a free contract spot or cap space to take on that particular player.

With so many clubs running close to the 50-contract limit, every single move has to be scrutinized and analyzed with the greatest care. If you can save a spot by flipping your bubble AHL prospect or cap dump for somebody else's trash, odds are that a GM will bite.
 

kunekune

Registered User
Feb 17, 2016
2,076
380
He doesn't really have to do anything, but is the Turris route (re: signing and then playing like **** until a trade) really the ideal end game here for Winnipeg?

Even then, the Coyotes returned significantly less than either of those packages... well, unless you think Rundblad + 2nd is better than Nurse or Miller and Brady Skjei.

He really cant take Turris route when he sits the year and is traded during the summer.

If this plays out for the whole year, Trouba has to take contract in low 4's next season and it will skyrocket the teams willing to trade for him.

ATM Trouba is handled like he is injured for the rest of the season. There is no rush to trade him this season. He will still have value next summer. Tho Trouba lost a lot money and an important season in his development.

Jacob Trouba is the only one who suffers from this situatition.
 

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,743
86,024
Nova Scotia
He really cant take Turris route when he sits the year and is traded during the summer.

If this plays out for the whole year, Trouba has to take contract in low 4's next season and it will skyrocket the teams willing to trade for him.

ATM Trouba is handled like he is injured for the rest of the season. There is no rush to trade him this season. He will still have value next summer. Tho Trouba lost a lot money and an important season in his development.

Jacob Trouba is the only one who suffers from this situatition.

To say the a Jets don't suffer from not having a good Dman in their lineup is a lie. Both suffer with no deal being done.
 
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