Trevor Timmins - The day they made me draft Louis Leblanc....

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schnapshot

Mendoza baby
Jan 8, 2015
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7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16...

That's 10 years. So he had 7/10 picks.

Nah that's not a to be fairrrrrrrrr*

*Say it like Letterkenny
Given that a 2nd round pick usually has a 30 to 35% chance of becoming a regular NHLer (let alone a good one), I’d say Timmins hasn’t been doing that bad with 3 (let’s include JDLR) out of 7.
 

Whitesnake

If you rebuild, they will come.
Jan 5, 2003
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Otto Somppi signs his ELC.....ANOTHER talented guy goes to Tampa. But we went with unknown Henriksson that in the end....will remain unknown. Another proof that every single out of left field picks from Timmins since Mark Streit didn't even make it to left field....STick to the freakin program. Go with talent. Your out of left field picks DO NOT WORK.

He has to stop f***ing around this year and go with talent.
 
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Habs100

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Given that a 2nd round pick usually has a 30 to 35% chance of becoming a regular NHLer (let alone a good one), I’d say Timmins hasn’t been doing that bad with 3 (let’s include JDLR) out of 7.

I wouldn't judge a scout based on how many of his picks become NHLers. I would judge him/her on how many become top 6/9 forwards, top 4D, or no. 1 goalies. Other players are readily availble in the UFA market, waiver wire, or trade market for mid to late round picks. No need to waste draft picks, especially 2nd rounders, on these kinds of players.
 

NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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Otto Somppi signs his ELC.....ANOTHER talented guy goes to Tampa. But we went with unknown Henriksson that in the end....will remain unknown. Another proof that every single out of left field picks from Timmins since Mark Streit didn't even make it to left field....STick to the freakin program. Go with talent. Your out of left field picks DO NOT WORK.

He has to stop ****ing around this year and go with talent.

I can't wait for the next

K O B E R S T E I N
O
B
E
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S
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NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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I wouldn't judge a scout based on how many of his picks become NHLers. I would judge him/her on how many become top 6/9 forwards, top 4D, or no. 1 goalies. Other players are readily availble in the UFA market, waiver wire, or trade market for mid to late round picks. No need to waste draft picks, especially 2nd rounders, on these kinds of players.

This is correct. What matters is control of valuable assets: not just assets perse. Metrics like total number of players, or total points, or total anything can paint a very misleading picture. Essentially, we have 1 top 6 player from our drafts since Bergevin was hired, and Bergevin hates the guy. We have a bunch of loose change, though, collecting a few points here, and a few points there. When I checked a little while back, Galchenyuk had scored something like 60% of all points from a habs draftee in that time. Everyone else added up to the extra 40%. That's just not going to do it.
 

schnapshot

Mendoza baby
Jan 8, 2015
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This is correct. What matters is control of valuable assets: not just assets perse. Metrics like total number of players, or total points, or total anything can paint a very misleading picture. Essentially, we have 1 top 6 player from our drafts since Bergevin was hired, and Bergevin hates the guy. We have a bunch of loose change, though, collecting a few points here, and a few points there. When I checked a little while back, Galchenyuk had scored something like 60% of all points from a habs draftee in that time. Everyone else added up to the extra 40%. That's just not going to do it.
And that top 6 player was drafted 3rd overall, hard to go wrong with that
 

Habs100

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This is correct. What matters is control of valuable assets: not just assets perse. Metrics like total number of players, or total points, or total anything can paint a very misleading picture. Essentially, we have 1 top 6 player from our drafts since Bergevin was hired, and Bergevin hates the guy. We have a bunch of loose change, though, collecting a few points here, and a few points there. When I checked a little while back, Galchenyuk had scored something like 60% of all points from a habs draftee in that time. Everyone else added up to the extra 40%. That's just not going to do it.

But if you're going to do an analysis of the scouting a) you can't only look at forwards, and b) you have to consider the players our scouts found that our GMs traded away.

In this case, Sergachev was also drafted since 2012. Also Scherbak and Juulsen are looking very good. We always knew Scherbak was a raw talent that would take time to develop. Add to that Mete, Lehkonen, and Hudon, plus botttom tier players like Andrighetto, DLR and Lernout, and I'm happy with the drafting since Bergevin took over (2012-2016).

Timmins nailed both our firsts when we missed the playoffs (Galchenyuk and Sergachev) and is 2/3 with last first rounders (25, 25, 26), as Scherbak and Juulsen are looking real good, McCarron is a bust. Then you add in Mete, Hudon, and Lehkonen. If we do that well going forward we'll be in good shape. That's 7 good players in 5 years. 1 top 4 dman/top 6 forward per year is excellent. We got 3 top 4 dmen (Sergachev, Juulsen, Mete), 2 top 6 fowards (Galchenyuk and Scherbak), and 2 more top 9 forwards (Lehkonen and Hudon).
 

Andrei79

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Jan 25, 2013
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I mean, if Timmins gave us Carolina's drafting record outside of their 1st rounders, we'd be in a totally different position.

Pretty much.

Would you trade Aho for Sergachev ? Because that's essentially the only pick Timmins has made since 08 where you could reasonably compare value against Aho.
 

Habs100

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And that top 6 player was drafted 3rd overall, hard to go wrong with that

Yet many teams do. Yakupov and Ryan Murray were drafted before Galchenyuk. Benoit Pouliot and Bobby Ryan were drafted before Price (would you want one of them?). Gilbert Brule was drafted right afterward. How many bad players were taken before McDonagh? (Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner, Zac Hamil, Brandon Sutter, Keaton Ellerby)? And we'll find out in a few years how many bad players were taken before Sergachev.
 

NotProkofievian

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But if you're going to do an analysis of the scouting a) you can't only look at forwards, and b) you have to consider the players our scouts found that our GMs traded away.

In this case, Sergachev was also drafted since 2012. Also Scherbak and Juulsen are looking very good. We always knew Scherbak was a raw talent that would take time to develop. Add to that Mete, Lehkonen, and Hudon, plus botttom tier players like Andrighetto, DLR and Lernout, and I'm happy with the drafting since Bergevin took over (2012-2016).

Timmins nailed both our firsts when we missed the playoffs (Galchenyuk and Sergachev) and is 2/3 with last first rounders (25, 25, 26), as Scherbak and Juulsen are looking real good, McCarron is a bust. Then you add in Mete, Hudon, and Lehkonen. If we do that well going forward we'll be in good shape. That's 7 good players in 5 years. 1 top 4 dman/top 6 forward per year is excellent. We got 3 top 4 dmen (Sergachev, Juulsen, Mete), 2 top 6 fowards (Galchenyuk and Scherbak), and 2 more top 9 forwards (Lehkonen and Hudon).

These guys, except Sergachev who we no longer have, don't move the needle at all, which is kind of the point that I was making. The Carolina comparison that I made in this thread includes a few dmen among their top drafted assets. Bottom line, this is mostly name-soup. Other teams are drafting talent better in later rounds. Some of this has to do with our penchant for drafting people nobody's heard of from buttf*** leagues. More of it still has to do with a misunderstanding of how character and talent influence a player's future in the league.
 

Habs100

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Pretty much.

Would you trade Aho for Sergachev ? Because that's essentially the only pick Timmins has made since 08 where you could reasonably compare value against Aho.

Since 2008, 8 of Carolina's 9 1st round picks have been lottery picks. I would hope their draft record is better! With 5 lottery picks in his entire tenure, Timmins has gotten us Price, Galchenyuk, McDonagh, and Sergachev (A. Kostitsyn being his only bust). Carolina Already have 3 busts in Ryan Murphy, Zach Boychuck, and Hayden Fleury and there may be more to come. And the one time they had a 1st that wasn't a lottery pick in 2008, they took a guy named Philippe Paradis. Ever heard of him?
 
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Habs100

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These guys, except Sergachev who we no longer have, don't move the needle at all, which is kind of the point that I was making. The Carolina comparison that I made in this thread includes a few dmen among their top drafted assets. Bottom line, this is mostly name-soup. Other teams are drafting talent better in later rounds. Some of this has to do with our penchant for drafting people nobody's heard of from butt**** leagues. More of it still has to do with a misunderstanding of how character and talent influence a player's future in the league.


We'll see if Galchenyuk, Scherbak, and Juulsen are just name soup. I doubt they will be. I also think Mete will be good.

If you look at my previous post, Carolina has not been as good with lottery picks as Timmins has been:

Since 2008, 8 of Carolina's 9 1st round picks have been lottery picks. I would hope their draft record is better! With 5 lottery picks in his entire tenure, Timmins has gotten us Price, Galchenyuk, McDonagh, and Sergachev (A. Kostitsyn being his only bust). Carolina Already have 3 busts in Ryan Murphy, Zach Boychuck, and Hayden Fleury and there may be more to come. And the one time they had a 1st that wasn't a lottery pick in 2008, they took a guy named Philippe Paradis. Ever heard of him?

I'll have to do an analysis of non-first round picks another time.
 
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NotProkofievian

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Pretty much.

Would you trade Aho for Sergachev ? Because that's essentially the only pick Timmins has made since 08 where you could reasonably compare value against Aho.

If you're trading Sergachev, you have to get back a C, if Bergy taught us anything this year.
 

NotProkofievian

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Since 2008, 8 of Carolina's 9 1st round picks have been lottery picks. I would hope their draft record is better! With 5 lottery picks in his entire tenure, Timmins has gotten us Price, Galchenyuk, McDonagh, and Sergachev (A. Kostitsyn being his only bust). Carolina Already have 3 busts in Ryan Murphy, Zach Boychuck, and Hayden Fleury and there may be more to come. And the one time they had a 1st that wasn't a lottery pick in 2008, they took a guy named Philippe Paradis. Ever heard of him?

Do you know who Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce are?
 
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NotProkofievian

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We'll see if Galchenyuk, Scherbak, and Juulsen are just name soup. I doubt they will be. I also think Mete will be good.

If you look at my previous post, Carolina has not been as good with lottery picks as Timmins has been:

Since 2008, 8 of Carolina's 9 1st round picks have been lottery picks. I would hope their draft record is better! With 5 lottery picks in his entire tenure, Timmins has gotten us Price, Galchenyuk, McDonagh, and Sergachev (A. Kostitsyn being his only bust). Carolina Already have 3 busts in Ryan Murphy, Zach Boychuck, and Hayden Fleury and there may be more to come. And the one time they had a 1st that wasn't a lottery pick in 2008, they took a guy named Philippe Paradis. Ever heard of him?

I'll have to do an analysis of non-first round picks another time.

No, Galchenyuk isn't part of the name soup. The list of prospects who have looked good in limited viewings years after their selection is, however. I have no idea what you're talking about Carolina's first round picks for, when I specifically said ''outside their 1st round picks'' in italics for emphasis.
 

Habs100

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No, Galchenyuk isn't part of the name soup. The list of prospects who have looked good in limited viewings years after their selection is, however. I have no idea what you're talking about Carolina's first round picks for, when I specifically said ''outside their 1st round picks'' in italics for emphasis.

It's great to pick well outside the first round. But you also need to pick well inside the first round. In fact it's much more important to pick well inside the first round. Lehkonen, Mete, and Hudon aren't as good as Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce. But there's a lot more to look at than just those 3 players.

And congrats to them for getting Sebastien Aho 35th overall, but have they ever, in their franchise history, gotten a 2nd rounder as good as PK Subban that Timmins got 43rd overall???
 

Andrei79

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Since 2008, 8 of Carolina's 9 1st round picks have been lottery picks. I would hope their draft record is better! With 5 lottery picks in his entire tenure, Timmins has gotten us Price, Galchenyuk, McDonagh, and Sergachev (A. Kostitsyn being his only bust). Carolina Already have 3 busts in Ryan Murphy, Zach Boychuck, and Hayden Fleury and there may be more to come. And the one time they had a 1st that wasn't a lottery pick in 2008, they took a guy named Philippe Paradis. Ever heard of him?

Yeah, did you read my post and the one I was replying too ?
 

Whitesnake

If you rebuild, they will come.
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As a scouting team. you need to be as regular as possible. I said as possible. 'Cause, again, there are tons of things that are happening. Players leave, trades are done, you need to be able to give players to your GM. You cannot just be satisfied with having had one of the best draft ever....11 years ago. You just can't. That draft will ALWAYS be in the books as one of the best ever. But the reset of the story, yet, will not be seen as good enough as to make this team as competitive as possible. No need to talk to me about the GM.....I know all that. We are talking about the scouting job here. We needed that scouting to be more regular. Needed that scouting to have as strategy a speed and talent strategy. We needed that scouting to be ahead of the competition. That's what the best would be known as. We shouldn't care what Timmins and Co do in June. It can't be important. I hear people say it's the last chance draft....how's that possible? To be sure to give him a last chance....shouldn't you keep him till we actually know what this draft is all about...which probably means you have to keep him for another 5 years to know what his 2018 draft really looks like?

I know one thing.....a lot of people would have been able to do what Timmins did. The only thing Timmins could differentiate himself from his through his "out of left field picks". That's Timmins signature. Not picking Sergachev. Not picking Galchenyuk. Not picking guys that were scheduled to go around where they went. It's all about the read that he might have compared to what the others have. That's how you can pinpoint how great a head scout or scout is. Nobody believed in Gourde...or Johnson.....or Palat....One team did...THAT what makes them very good DESPITE their other misses. And those guys are actually the ones that complete the team they have. Going back to Timmins and his out of left field.....his signature picks.....well we can safely say that, except the recent drafts where it's too early to tell, he missed the boat on all of them.....The only recent 2 possibilities to change all that....Primeau and Evans. And personnally, while it was important to sign Evans....people should refrain their expectations. The others out of left filed still in analysis...are Vejdemo and Walford. I had Walford in my list...but so much later. And don't hold your hopes too high. It won't be the best 3rd rounder of that draft. Bet on it. Vejdemo is still interesting. But to find an out of left field pick that worked....you have to go back in 2004. With Grabovski and Streit.
 

JeffreyLFC

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To be fair, between 2007 and 2016, Timmins has had 7 second rounders to work with. Which produced an elite defenseman and a good young player in Lehkonen. Compared to this, the Lightning had 13 in the same period, of which Kucherov is the lone bright spot.

He seems to have gotten something right with Josh Brook too.
Okay and most of the 2nd rounder you are talking about are still developing as they were picked recently.

Panik, Kucherov, Erne not bad..

Also Hajek was the key piece to obtain McDonagh.

Raddysh, Stephens, Katchouk, Volkov, Masin have NHL potential.
 

Habs

We should have drafted Michkov
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Timmins does the same quality work as most people in his position, which is why we are an average team at best. The entire crew needs to be booted.
 
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Habs100

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Timmins does the same quality work as most people in his position, which is why we are an average team at best. The entire crew needs to be booted.

Yeah the GMs have been great. It's the scouting that's the reason we are where we are.

The scouting team should be finding more Subbans, McDonaghs, and Sergachevs than they are so we can trade them for more old slow dmen and useless centers.

They gotta draft more slow dmen and grinders that deserve 4 million AAV cap hits so the GM can stop having to trade 2 early 2nds for them.

And they should stop making the GM not resign stars that are the heart of the team like Radulov and Markov and instead using the money on the Karl Alzner's and Andrew Shaw's.
 
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Sterling Archer

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Sep 26, 2006
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I don’t think it’s a coincidence that when we had exceptional head coaches developing the prospects like Boucher, we had guys like Patches, PK etc. coming up. Then with changes and a coach like Sly the pipeline seemingly runs dry for the length of his tenure. I don’t think Timmins forgot how to draft. I thinks Habs dropped the ball on development. That being said, scouting isn’t an exact science and you’re going to have busts but Timmins historically has had a great track record. We just haven’t been developing our prospects from an organizational standpoint. Chucky was a complete debacle in that sense as were several other kids.

Hire the best coach who can eventually make the jump to the big club like we used to do with his like Julien, Vignault, Boucher because that how you successfully develop youngsters.
 

Schooner Guy

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Jun 23, 2006
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As a scouting team. you need to be as regular as possible. I said as possible. 'Cause, again, there are tons of things that are happening. Players leave, trades are done, you need to be able to give players to your GM. You cannot just be satisfied with having had one of the best draft ever....11 years ago. You just can't. That draft will ALWAYS be in the books as one of the best ever. But the reset of the story, yet, will not be seen as good enough as to make this team as competitive as possible. No need to talk to me about the GM.....I know all that. We are talking about the scouting job here. We needed that scouting to be more regular. Needed that scouting to have as strategy a speed and talent strategy. We needed that scouting to be ahead of the competition. That's what the best would be known as. We shouldn't care what Timmins and Co do in June. It can't be important. I hear people say it's the last chance draft....how's that possible? To be sure to give him a last chance....shouldn't you keep him till we actually know what this draft is all about...which probably means you have to keep him for another 5 years to know what his 2018 draft really looks like?

I know one thing.....a lot of people would have been able to do what Timmins did. The only thing Timmins could differentiate himself from his through his "out of left field picks". That's Timmins signature. Not picking Sergachev. Not picking Galchenyuk. Not picking guys that were scheduled to go around where they went. It's all about the read that he might have compared to what the others have. That's how you can pinpoint how great a head scout or scout is. Nobody believed in Gourde...or Johnson.....or Palat....One team did...THAT what makes them very good DESPITE their other misses. And those guys are actually the ones that complete the team they have. Going back to Timmins and his out of left field.....his signature picks.....well we can safely say that, except the recent drafts where it's too early to tell, he missed the boat on all of them.....The only recent 2 possibilities to change all that....Primeau and Evans. And personnally, while it was important to sign Evans....people should refrain their expectations. The others out of left filed still in analysis...are Vejdemo and Walford. I had Walford in my list...but so much later. And don't hold your hopes too high. It won't be the best 3rd rounder of that draft. Bet on it. Vejdemo is still interesting. But to find an out of left field pick that worked....you have to go back in 2004. With Grabovski and Streit.

I'm surprised you're wasting energy bashing late round "out of left field" picks less than a year after Primeau was taken.

Scouting teams all have their own lists that are different than every other team. We all know how low the % of hits are after the first 40-50 picks. In 2012, Habs draft was a draft guide's dream. It looked like we picked players later than they should have gone (according to almost all draft guides) throughout the entire draft and we were hailed as winners. Other than our first round pick (a #3 overall pick), that was probably the worst draft in Timmins Habs tenure....the one draft where fans and media thought the Habs stole the show.

My point is NHL scouting teams know the players better than the draft guides, media and fans do. NHL teams have the entire planet to cover of not so obvious picks (standouts are taken early). What you might deem "out of left field" may actually not be on many NHL lists.
 

HereInTheNord

Registered User
Nov 20, 2016
44
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As a scouting team. you need to be as regular as possible. I said as possible. 'Cause, again, there are tons of things that are happening. Players leave, trades are done, you need to be able to give players to your GM. You cannot just be satisfied with having had one of the best draft ever....11 years ago. You just can't. That draft will ALWAYS be in the books as one of the best ever. But the reset of the story, yet, will not be seen as good enough as to make this team as competitive as possible. No need to talk to me about the GM.....I know all that. We are talking about the scouting job here. We needed that scouting to be more regular. Needed that scouting to have as strategy a speed and talent strategy. We needed that scouting to be ahead of the competition. That's what the best would be known as. We shouldn't care what Timmins and Co do in June. It can't be important. I hear people say it's the last chance draft....how's that possible? To be sure to give him a last chance....shouldn't you keep him till we actually know what this draft is all about...which probably means you have to keep him for another 5 years to know what his 2018 draft really looks like?

I know one thing.....a lot of people would have been able to do what Timmins did. The only thing Timmins could differentiate himself from his through his "out of left field picks". That's Timmins signature. Not picking Sergachev. Not picking Galchenyuk. Not picking guys that were scheduled to go around where they went. It's all about the read that he might have compared to what the others have. That's how you can pinpoint how great a head scout or scout is. Nobody believed in Gourde...or Johnson.....or Palat....One team did...THAT what makes them very good DESPITE their other misses. And those guys are actually the ones that complete the team they have. Going back to Timmins and his out of left field.....his signature picks.....well we can safely say that, except the recent drafts where it's too early to tell, he missed the boat on all of them.....The only recent 2 possibilities to change all that....Primeau and Evans. And personnally, while it was important to sign Evans....people should refrain their expectations. The others out of left filed still in analysis...are Vejdemo and Walford. I had Walford in my list...but so much later. And don't hold your hopes too high. It won't be the best 3rd rounder of that draft. Bet on it. Vejdemo is still interesting. But to find an out of left field pick that worked....you have to go back in 2004. With Grabovski and Streit.


To be fair, and I think the guy have been horrible, last out of left field pick that worked, and pretty darn well is Gallagher.
My main issue with the guy is he seems to have a decent rate of success on defenceman, but darn is it horrible with forward.
Then, development kicks in... and can't say it's an Habs strength and it plays against the guy big time.
I feel a lot of his picks are often tainted by direction asks, might be a thing.
I feel the guy lived long enough on his 2007 draft.
 
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