Trevor Timmins Part III

[montreal]

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http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2165035

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[bcv]

Michael Pezzetta is looking more and more like another wasted pick a la Connor Crisp.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Michael Pezzetta is looking more and more like another wasted pick a la Connor Crisp.

Meh, I don't worry about 6th round gambles.... its a roll of the dice.

Crisp in the third round was dumb though.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Meh, I don't worry about 6th round gambles.... its a roll of the dice.

Crisp in the third round was dumb though.

He's not a roll of the dice. He's a throw-away pick.. like "**** it, I have no one left on my list, let's take this guy who was drafted high in juniors"

A gamble is Dmitri Sokolov.

Michael Pezzetta is looking more and more like another wasted pick a la Connor Crisp.

It was a wasted pick the second it was made.

 

[pled]

Meh, I don't worry about 6th round gambles.... its a roll of the dice.

Crisp in the third round was dumb though.

outside third round it's usually just random gambles. with modern scouting the top 100 usually is pretty good. crisp was a bad choice and a bunch of injuries didnt help

 

[Whitesnake]

Meh, I don't worry about 6th round gambles.... its a roll of the dice.

Crisp in the third round was dumb though.

Not the point. Gamble on offensive players then. Those Pezzetta guys you can have them once you invite them free in your development camp. Or if you sign then as UFA. Gamble on offensive guys who has a lot to work with in other spheres of their game.

Gamble on Ondrej Palat type of players. Gamble on Francis Perron. Some will work, some won't. But I sure as hell prefer to see offensive players not make it compared to junior pluggers like Pezzetta. Not sure why people don't understand that.

 

[Habs Icing]

Not the point. Gamble on offensive players then. Those Pezzetta guys you can have them once you invite them free in your development camp. Or if you sign then as UFA. Gamble on offensive guys who has a lot to work with in other spheres of their game.

Gamble on Ondrej Palat type of players. Gamble on Francis Perron. Some will work, some won't. But I sure as hell prefer to see offensive players not make it compared to junior pluggers like Pezzetta. Not sure why people don't understand that.

There's another way to look at it.What did MB pay to get Martinsen, King and Ott? About the same thing that he paid to get Pezzetta. The Pezzettas that succeed are needed on every team. Using the 6th and 7th picks doesn't bother me. Using the 3rd pick (Crisp) seems like a total waste of time. Also, I suspect that the Pezettas of the world picked in the later rounds probably work out more often than those skilled players with huge holes in their game picked in the same rounds.

 

[montreal]

There's another way to look at it.What did MB pay to get Martinsen, King and Ott? About the same thing that he paid to get Pezzetta. The Pezzettas that succeed are needed on every team. Using the 6th and 7th picks doesn't bother me. Using the 3rd pick (Crisp) seems like a total waste of time. Also, I suspect that the Pezettas of the world picked in the later rounds probably work out more often than those skilled players with huge holes in their game picked in the same rounds.

agreed, I'm ok with every now and then taking a flyer on a big bodied physical type in the later rounds but don't like them using a 3rd rounder on someone like Crisp (although it's impossible to know what he could have been/could be due to so much time lost to injury) especially when we trade 2nd rounders so often.

 

[Treb]

There's another way to look at it.What did MB pay to get Martinsen, King and Ott? About the same thing that he paid to get Pezzetta. The Pezzettas that succeed are needed on every team. Using the 6th and 7th picks doesn't bother me. Using the 3rd pick (Crisp) seems like a total waste of time. Also, I suspect that the Pezettas of the world picked in the later rounds probably work out more often than those skilled players with huge holes in their game picked in the same rounds.

Draft skill with 6th rounders or trade the pick for established grit. Do not draft potential grit with no offensive potential.

 

[pled]

Draft skill with 6th rounders or trade the pick for established grit. Do not draft potential grit with no offensive potential.

we don't have any 6th or 7th this year so no problem haha but some guys pick in late round are pretty great. Addison and Evans are both great for 7th. but since Timmins is here its true that most 6th and 6th were wasted not sure if he's responsible. other than overage European we didn't have much luck since I guess dagostini or ryder.


Let's focus on what we have right now from those round which is Evans, Addison, Bourque, Hawkey, Gregoire, Henriksson and sadly Pezzeta and Sullivan.

And I guess it's already been said but the prospect that look good on that list are offensive gamble.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Not the point. Gamble on offensive players then. Those Pezzetta guys you can have them once you invite them free in your development camp. Or if you sign then as UFA. Gamble on offensive guys who has a lot to work with in other spheres of their game.

Gamble on Ondrej Palat type of players. Gamble on Francis Perron. Some will work, some won't. But I sure as hell prefer to see offensive players not make it compared to junior pluggers like Pezzetta. Not sure why people don't understand that.

I agree. There are interesting offensive players who fall through the draft every year. Why not Shvyryov last year, for example?

 

[Habs Icing]

Draft skill with 6th rounders or trade the pick for established grit. Do not draft potential grit with no offensive potential.

If you were a GM and you had a valued established gritty player, would you trade him for a sixth or seventh pick?

 

[bleuetbio]

Meh, I don't worry about 6th round gambles.... its a roll of the dice.

Crisp in the third round was dumb though.

I dont know if you remember my post a week ago about Hawks signing John Hayden... Hayden is terrific with us and have his PPG and a ton of hits, just what what we would need with Galchenyuk actually. I remember that year where almost everybody were willing to take a shot at him. If you want big guy and you choose a Connor Crisp over a John Hayden, sorry but someone must be fired just for that

That saif, im also an hawks fan and I fairly enjoy our steal

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

agreed, I'm ok with every now and then taking a flyer on a big bodied physical type in the later rounds but don't like them using a 3rd rounder on someone like Crisp (although it's impossible to know what he could have been/could be due to so much time lost to injury) especially when we trade 2nd rounders so often.

Actually, according to the guys I know out there who watched him come up through the league (actual scouts, not just jabronis like the rest of us), he was garbage from get-go. I believe I shared that with everyone here immediately after the draft, but of course you can't argue with "wait and see" that soon after. Turns out the guys I know were right, though, and they were pretty adamant about it from day 1. Lack of skating, lack of skill, lack of hockey sense in general. Big ol' nails in the coffin, but he's big, plays tough, and reputedly a good team guy...

Long story short, he was a nothing who was always destined to be nothing, and those most familiar with him knew it from the very start. I'm willing to bet he wasn't even on a single of the other 29 list in the room on draft day, so I really don't know where that pick comes from, let alone in the 3rd.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I dont know if you remember my post a week ago about Hawks signing John Hayden... Hayden is terrific with us and have his PPG and a ton of hits, just what what we would need with Galchenyuk actually. I remember that year where almost everybody were willing to take a shot at him. If you want big guy and you choose a Connor Crisp over a John Hayden, sorry but someone must be fired just for that

That saif, im also an hawks fan and I fairly enjoy our steal

Picked Hayden for the Habs in the mock draft.

 

[montreal]

Actually, according to the guys I know out there who watched him come up through the league (actual scouts, not just jabronis like the rest of us), he was garbage from get-go. I believe I shared that with everyone here immediately after the draft, but of course you can't argue with "wait and see" that soon after. Turns out the guys I know were right, though, and they were pretty adamant about it from day 1. Lack of skating, lack of skill, lack of hockey sense in general. Big ol' nails in the coffin, but he's big, plays tough, and reputedly a good team guy...

Long story short, he was a nothing who was always destined to be nothing, and those most familiar with him knew it from the very start. I'm willing to bet he wasn't even on a single of the other 29 list in the room on draft day, so I really don't know where that pick comes from, let alone in the 3rd.

yea he wasn't on central scoutings list nor McKeens. He was passed over in '12 because he missed the season to injury. here's one scouting report I found from back then,

With Connor Crisp being unranked by McKeen's and Future Considerations, the scouting analysis will come entirely from HockeyProspect for Crisp so this will be notably abridged.

Hockey Prospect is very dismissive of Crisp's skating abilities. They note he lacks speed and has heavy feet. They note that he has a great deal of work to do for his skating to reach even an average level and it has a very low probability to be a useful part of his game. Crisp is noted as displaying some decent finishing abilities around the net and being adept at using his frame as a goal mouth prescence. Crisp shows an ability to read plays and make good decisions without hestitation with not many mistakes either. His true gift is his physical game; he will charge the net to create havoc and is difficult for defenders to handle because of his large frame. He is a strong checker and is more than willing to fight. He is credited with some defensive ability, nothing exceptional, but he does seem to understand the need for a responsible game to be a better contributor.

doesn't sound very glowing for sure. That said still doesn't mean you can know what might have happened to him if not for injuries. It's so hard to know what prospect will figure it out and which ones peaked or just never progress. I remember when Ron Hainsey was drafted, I recall talk from people I trust that follow the NCAA way more then I do, that his teammates were all in shock that he was picked let alone a 1st rounder. In no way am I comparing their situations, since Hainsey the following season after being drafted broke out and then turned pro the next summer. And in no way was I in favor of the pick at the time, just that some can figure it out later to at least be decent 4th liners.

At the end of the day, hopefully they don't make a pick like that again that high, although I do wonder with CJ here now, if the trade deadline is any indication of our future, maybe we will see a shift to more bigger bodies then in the past.

 

[LastWordArmy]

He's not a roll of the dice. He's a throw-away pick.. like "**** it, I have no one left on my list, let's take this guy who was drafted high in juniors"

A gamble is Dmitri Sokolov.



It was a wasted pick the second it was made.

Disagree with that.

By the time you get to the sixth round everyone has flaws in their game.

Maybe they looked at him and said, "if he can just fix X, there is some offensive potential there"

Wouldn't be the first kid who didn't score at 17, but started at 18 or 19... its the sixth round, if you think there's a chance, role the dice.

Michael Ferland had 28 points in his draft year, (2009-10 season, 2010 draft year) and the Flames took him in the 5th. The next year he scored over 100 points. He's become a decent bottom 6 guy for them.

 

[Whitesnake]

There's another way to look at it.What did MB pay to get Martinsen, King and Ott? About the same thing that he paid to get Pezzetta. The Pezzettas that succeed are needed on every team. Using the 6th and 7th picks doesn't bother me. Using the 3rd pick (Crisp) seems like a total waste of time. Also, I suspect that the Pezettas of the world picked in the later rounds probably work out more often than those skilled players with huge holes in their game picked in the same rounds.

Well I don't like that way. Why? 'Cause tell me how a 6th rounder is best used....on a junior plugger that most likely will NEVER make it.....or a 6th rounder to get a NHL plugger that is already "proven"? Sure, there are pluggers that have made it, but there are scorers that did too. So 1 on 1....who do you go for? Besides, most "pluggers" that did make it were actually very good skilled junior players.

Also, again, I keep saying this....but it's the reality. EVERY PICK that Timmins has drafted with the label "hidden gem" stayed hidden. Okay, not every pick....but we can safely say that since Streit....or maybe SKost, those were the very last ones. Everybody else stayed and will stay hidden. Not a big guess to say that Koberstein will not make it. And we now really wonder about Vejdemo. Last one to see is THE Henriksson. Though, I liked him very much at the dev. camp, the lack of stats right now is troublesome to say the least. But there's still time to develop, of course.

So even if we don't want to play hindisight and talk about names, I stand by my opinion that the strategy in itself should change. No more real pluggers that are ALREADY pluggers in juniors, no more supposed hidden gems that are actually hidden for a very good reason. There are safer bets out there. If you go skills, are you are REALLY interested in the Q, you DO draft Mike Hoffman. Now, some will say that I contradict myself...that Avtsin TOTALLY fit the bill of this great skilled player that we should load our picks with....well remember my "hidden gem" comment too....But yeah, I still do prefer to take a chance on a Avtsin than on a Pezzetta....but Hoffman was right up there ready for the taking. But we did stayed in the Q and decided to go for a guy EVERYBODY knew would be a plugger if he ever made it. Yep, he did score 50 goals....but did it after being drafted while Hoffman did it in his draft year.

So it's all great to not talk about names if you don't want to....but strategywise....if you have to be struck out, struck out while aiming for the fences.....it's freakin sad to be struck out while trying a bunt....

Disagree with that.

By the time you get to the sixth round everyone has flaws in their game.

Maybe they looked at him and said, "if he can just fix X, there is some offensive potential there"

Wouldn't be the first kid who didn't score at 17, but started at 18 or 19... its the sixth round, if you think there's a chance, role the dice.

Michael Ferland had 28 points in his draft year, (2009-10 season, 2010 draft year) and the Flames took him in the 5th. The next year he scored over 100 points. He's become a decent bottom 6 guy for them.

Ferland is an incredibly exception. In the world of crapshoot and guesses, you shouldn't base your draft strategy over an exception don't you think? And when it's time to add some grit to your bottom 6, as everybody does, you can actually get those type of guys with 4th and 5th rounders, on guys that are ACTUALLY proven.

As far as fixing things.....well you rarely can fix hockey offensive IQ. And pure natural instincts. But 1-way offensive player could work on defensive reads. And overall positioning. Don't get me wrong....I'd take a Ferland. I'd take Adam Lowry. Though Lowry had 45ish points in 60ish games so...not purely Pezzetta's either....but you still could see he shoudln't transfrom into top 6. So I'd take those. But I still believe that you could transfrom what seems to be more skilled guys in junior into bottom 6 than if you go already from bottom 6 in juniors, to bottom 6 in the NHL. I think that you add an once of crapshooting in an already huge crapshoot.

Ferland is very good. But you go for more skills and you get....Gallagher.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Ferland is an incredibly exception. In the world of crapshoot and guesses, you shouldn't base your draft strategy over an exception don't you think? And when it's time to add some grit to your bottom 6, as everybody does, you can actually get those type of guys with 4th and 5th rounders, on guys that are ACTUALLY proven.

As far as fixing things.....well you rarely can fix hockey offensive IQ. And pure natural instincts. But 1-way offensive player could work on defensive reads. And overall positioning. Don't get me wrong....I'd take a Ferland. I'd take Adam Lowry. Though Lowry had 45ish points in 60ish games so...not purely Pezzetta's either....but you still could see he shoudln't transfrom into top 6. So I'd take those. But I still believe that you could transfrom what seems to be more skilled guys in junior into bottom 6 than if you go already from bottom 6 in juniors, to bottom 6 in the NHL. I think that you add an once of crapshooting in an already huge crapshoot.

Ferland is very good. But you go for more skills and you get....Gallagher.

I agree that you shouldn't draft a bottom 6 in junior with the plan he's a bottom 6 in the NHL.

What I'm saying is sometimes you see something in a kid at 17, that makes you think he'll break out at 18.

It didn't happen for Pezzetta, but that doesn't mean they drafted him thinking he had no offensive pontential. I'm pretty sure they aren't just looking at his stats, they saw something in his game that had potential.

Look at Bradley, he was a 40 point guy in his draft year and is at 77 now.

 

[Whitesnake]

I agree that you shouldn't draft a bottom 6 in junior with the plan he's a bottom 6 in the NHL.

What I'm saying is sometimes you see something in a kid at 17, that makes you think he'll break out at 18.

It didn't happen for Pezzetta, but that doesn't mean they drafted him thinking he had no offensive pontential. I'm pretty sure they aren't just looking at his stats, they saw something in his game that had potential.

Look at Bradley, he was a 40 point guy in his draft year and is at 77 now.

Well 40 point in 71 game is actually very good offensively so I,m not going to compare this to Pez either. And watching Brad play, he had quite a few things that could potentially made scouts think that they there was more to it, based on skating, shot and offensive instincts.

I guess that some will say that it then made sense to go after Crisp with his 36 points....yet again....maybe....but in the 5th or 6th round too! Not in the 3rd.

Again, no matter how you view Timmins, was it good enough, it is that bad or whatever...one thing is sure....since Mark Streit, no pick OUT OF LEFT FIELD that was made by the Habs paid off. None. So not going to say to stick with CSS...they have their share of stupidities too.....and not going to say to go purely with stats, you ALSO have to do an evaluatin of the pro potential of the kid....but from round 4 and down? With the overall understanding that finding gems is extremely hard? Bet on offense. Bet on players you can't get elsewhere. AGain, there is a possibility that some of those offensive guys changes their style and become bottom 6. Slim chance you say? Sure....just as much as a junior plugger ever made the NHL.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Actually, according to the guys I know out there who watched him come up through the league (actual scouts, not just jabronis like the rest of us), he was garbage from get-go. I believe I shared that with everyone here immediately after the draft, but of course you can't argue with "wait and see" that soon after. Turns out the guys I know were right, though, and they were pretty adamant about it from day 1. Lack of skating, lack of skill, lack of hockey sense in general. Big ol' nails in the coffin, but he's big, plays tough, and reputedly a good team guy...

Long story short, he was a nothing who was always destined to be nothing, and those most familiar with him knew it from the very start. I'm willing to bet he wasn't even on a single of the other 29 list in the room on draft day, so I really don't know where that pick comes from, let alone in the 3rd.

I bet you MB instructed TT to draft guys with size! It was a terrible pick and in the 3rd round too! I bet they though they could develop him into a well rounded player but I do agree he never did have good hockey sense. Bad Pick!

 

[jaffy27]

Michael Pezzetta is looking more and more like another wasted pick a la Connor Crisp.

Don't worry, you'll live......

Meanwhile in the same draft, Mete, Bitten and Sergachev are all looking like sure bets!

 

[LastWordArmy]

Well 40 point in 71 game is actually very good offensively so I,m not going to compare this to Pez either. And watching Brad play, he had quite a few things that could potentially made scouts think that they there was more to it, based on skating, shot and offensive instincts.

I guess that some will say that it then made sense to go after Crisp with his 36 points....yet again....maybe....but in the 5th or 6th round too! Not in the 3rd.

Again, no matter how you view Timmins, was it good enough, it is that bad or whatever...one thing is sure....since Mark Streit, no pick OUT OF LEFT FIELD that was made by the Habs paid off. None. So not going to say to stick with CSS...they have their share of stupidities too.....and not going to say to go purely with stats, you ALSO have to do an evaluatin of the pro potential of the kid....but from round 4 and down? With the overall understanding that finding gems is extremely hard? Bet on offense. Bet on players you can't get elsewhere. AGain, there is a possibility that some of those offensive guys changes their style and become bottom 6. Slim chance you say? Sure....just as much as a junior plugger ever made the NHL.

I agree that you don't pick a guy like Crisp in the third round. I think that was a big mistake. He was alos one year older, and still didn't have offensive numbers, and also was picked in the 3rd, not the 6th round.

Also Streit was 2004.... since that time he's gotten guys out of the later rounds... D'agostini (6th), Sergei K. (7th), Gallagher (5th), Hudon (5th). Plus some NHL games for Dumont (5th) and Dietz (5th). Thats not a bad success rate considering how few players in 5th round or later play even one game.

I'll be willing to criticize the Crisp pick all day, cause there was no reason to take him that early with guys like Hudson Fasching, John Hayden, Anthony Duclair, Pavel Buchnevich, Olivier Bjorkstrand, all on the board. If you wanted Size, Fasching and Hayden both have that element.

I just can't find the energy to get mad at a 6th round pick on Pezzetta. They rolled the dice on him improving this year, it didn't happen, oh well.

 

[Whitesnake]

Don't worry, you'll live......

Meanwhile in the same draft, Mete, Bitten and Sergachev are all looking like sure bets!

Sure bets? Really? Bitten and Mete are sure bets to play in the NHL and play a key role? Looking good...but far from sure bets.

Not that long ago 2012 was filled by sure bets.....

 

[WeThreeKings]

Sure bets? Really? Bitten and Mete are sure bets to play in the NHL and play a key role? Looking good...but far from sure bets.

Not that long ago 2012 was filled by sure bets.....

Bittems production has been a huge disappointment for me, imo.