You said:
When you said had the CAD remained 'constant' organic growth would have averaged between 5-6%, constant at what rate? What years?
Sorry, I meant to say had the $CDN remained constant over the last 4 years the growth rate would have averaged in the 5-6% range.
So there must be an exchange rate where the exchange rate has no impact on the organic growth rate. $.76 seems low for a favourable exchange rate for the growth of the cap. A year ago the exchange rate was $.77. The rate has been hovering around $.76 for the past year. The cap is not increasing, as you say, because of an unfavourable exchange rate.
It does not matter what the rate is only how it changes from year to year. So long as it does not change year to year growth is purely organic.
The exchange rate is not the reason the cap would be flat this year. This would happen if the NHLPA does not use the escalator. Otherwise revenue would be up by about 5% even with a modest drop in the $CDN. The drop in the dollar did impact the cap a fair bit the last two years though.
Now McKenzie is saying that the NHLPA is talking about the escalator and that there is almost no chance they choose 0%. At 2% the increase would be about $1.4M or so. Actually a 3% number would take the cap to about $75M. This might be a very good outcome for the Oilers. It might well be enough to manage their cap issues without letting some of the competition off the hook.