Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals/Free Agents 2017-2018

[danielpalfredsson]

Ryan is overpaid by 2.5 per season, so on reality, you are tanking EK's value for 10M is "savings" for a team that is no where near the cap.

And in what universe is limiting the market to teams that can handle adding 17.5-20M in cap a good idea (EK +Ryan). You want as large a group of bidders as possible!

Of course, this ignores limiting the market even further by adding Ryan's no trade list on top of EK's.

In short, the position is idiotic.

Teams that want to win in the next few years will trade an established player or 2, a couple of high end prospects, and multiple years of first round draft picks for a generational D man in his prime signed to a long term deal.

Adding Ryan to the deal is indefensible unless $ are the ONLY consideration.

Re: Ryan's value

If you see Ryan as being worth a bit over 5M, that's fine, but we'll have to agree to disagree here. I think Ryan is a top 6 player when healthy, but the reason I am willing to see the guy as "dead" money is because his health has been incredibly inconsistent over the last two seasons. How often has Ryan played healthy for us from 2016-2018? He's either injured, or playing while battling through an injury. Even if at his best he is still a 5M-6M player, the issue is we are rarely getting his best.

The reality is with Ryan, we've been getting 15 goals/38 points per 82 games with him over the last two regular seasons. That's not a 5 million dollar player. Combine that with the fact that he is projected to have missed a combined 40 games over the last two seasons, and now we've paid 14.5M over the last two seasons for what is projected to be 23 goals and 58 points over 124 games.

He had a very solid start to this season where he was fantastic prior to getting hurt, and he had a fantastic run in the playoffs where he was rested and healthy. The problem is, we can't reasonably plan for when he will be healthy. His health is too inconsistent and it is resulting in us not getting the production we need to even consider him a 5M per player like you said above.

Even if we say "well 3rd line production on average over 60 games is worth maybe 2.5M" (or whatever salary number someone dictates), contracts don't work that way. We can't just dump 5M of Ryan, we need to either keep his entire contract, or dump it all. That's why he is dead salary.

Re: Limiting the Market

Re-read the initial post you responded to. I clearly stated I think if we do intend on trying to pair Ryan with Karlsson, we should not exclude ourselves from negotiating with teams who cannot take Ryan.

"Our motivation for trading Karlsson obviously shouldn't just be to move Ryan's contract, but if we are going to trade Karlsson for other reasons, we have a unique opportunity to exploit his value and dump 7.5M per season in bad salary while probably not hurting the return all that badly so long as we bluff our way to actively negotiating with teams who cannot take Ryan and then use that to drive up the "discounted" price for teams who can."

You have a fair point about limiting the market with Ryan's no trade list. Nothing I can say against that.

 

[BonkTastic]

Lottery team for sure, then we likely lose Duchene and Stone to UFA next summer.

Wait, why are we losing Stone to UFA next summer?

 

[branch]

They will likely be seperate because we will loose too much firepower if we loose both Ryan and Karlsson right away.

I expect a mid season trade of Ryan (25% retained) to a team like SJS, for a exchange of picks (give them our second for their third, or 4th).

Heres what I'd bank money on:

Karlsson to Vegas for 1st, 2nd, Glass, Alex Tuch, and M. Subban. (Fills LW, backup and 2C needs)

Pageau + Smith to Oilers for Klefbom (Fills 4D)

Hoffman to Calgary for R. Andersson + Sam Bennet (young promising nhl ready D + 3rd line struggling 1st rnd pick).

Ryan 2019 deadline trade to SJS at 25% retained + our 2nd for their 3rd.

Condon for Arizonas 5th round pick.

Then you start the season with Chilapik and White, and either call up Brown midseason ala Chabot OR wait till 2019-20. Formenton will likely be similar if not a year behind.

Not a bad young team.

That’s a lotto team in 2019 where we don’t have a 1st

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Wait, why are we losing Stone to UFA next summer?

According to the main board he is gonna sign an offer sheet or something.

 

[BonkTastic]

According to the main board...

Nothing good, accurate, or logical ever comes after those 5 words.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

We must not trade EK. It would be catastrophically bad if we do.

If we do. It must be for a ridiculous haul.

Brannstrom, Tuch, 1st, Theodore, Suzuki/Glass

Or Drai

Anything less would be a disaster.

Karlsson is a generational player in his prime.

We cannot afford to f this up. We will never have a caliber of EK again. Most important trade of our team’s existence.

But Ottawa must do everything imaginable to re-sign him. Everything.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

We must not trade EK. It would be catastrophically bad if we do.

If we do. It must be for a ridiculous haul.

Brannstrom, Tuch, 1st, Theodore, Suzuki/Glass

Or Drai

Anything less would be a disaster.

Karlsson is a generational player in his prime.

We cannot afford to f this up. We will never have a caliber of EK again. Most important trade of our team’s existence.

But Ottawa must do everything imaginable to re-sign him. Everything.

How much would including Bobby Ryan reduce that haul?
For example if we could possibly get Drai without Ryan.. Do we get RNH with him?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

For Vegas tbh I’d think we’d lose one major piece like Tuch and they’d include Clarkson. Which isn’t all that terrible.

Vegas can stomach Ryan that’s the thing. Any other team and the haul would become significantly less with Ryan added.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

How much would including Bobby Ryan reduce that haul?
For example if we could possibly get Drai without Ryan.. Do we get RNH with him?

The rumour was that Dorion was asking for as many as 7 pieces without Ryan (5-7), with teams getting a discount if they take Ryan.

The "backbone" of the Vegas offer that we rejected was apparently four pieces, which was as many as 3 firsts depending on the nature of the supposed conditional pick, and then a "top prospect" from Vegas, which I would assume would mean one of Glass, Suzuki, or Brannstrom. That's four pieces versus the five to seven Dorion was otherwise being rumoured to ask for without Ryan, and we rejected it for not being enough.

Keep in mind, that was supposed to be the "back bone" of the deal, so it's possible there were more lesser pieces involved. It doesn't sound like there was much of a discount for taking Ryan in this scenario, more like Vegas exploiting their ability to take Ryan in order to become a front runner. But, it's very hard to say without knowing what the other competing offers may have been without Ryan, if we just go by the 5-7 pieces price, it sounds like we were getting pretty close to that in an offer from Vegas.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The rumour was that Dorion was asking for as many as 7 pieces without Ryan (5-7), with teams getting a discount if they take Ryan.

The "backbone" of the Vegas offer that we rejected was apparently four pieces, which was as many as 3 firsts depending on the nature of the supposed conditional pick, and then a "top prospect" from Vegas, which I would assume would mean one of Glass, Suzuki, or Brannstrom. That's four pieces versus the five to seven Dorion was otherwise being rumoured to ask for without Ryan, and we rejected it for not being enough.

Keep in mind, that was supposed to be the "back bone" of the deal, so it's possible there were more lesser pieces involved. It doesn't sound like there was much of a discount for taking Ryan in this scenario, more like Vegas exploiting their ability to take Ryan in order to become a front runner. But, it's very hard to say without knowing what the other competing offers may have been without Ryan, if we just go by the 5-7 pieces price, it sounds like we were getting pretty close to that in an offer from Vegas.

What teams do you think will be in a similar position when the season is over factoring in UFAs that would not be coming back if the team took on Karlsson and Ryan. I guess with the Cap expected to go up that should increase the number of teams

 

[TheNewEra]

i still say that we could trade ryan for ladd instead of having to dump ryan in another deal and reduce value. Might even be able to get ladd+ for ryan if our gm had any balls

we get a lesser skilled player, but save 10 million over the contract and save 1.75 per year on cap hit. If Ryan is going to get pushed to the third line then this makes sense especially with ladds salary declining over his contract

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Can't believe this proposal on the main boards

To Mtl: Hoffman, Anderson, 2018 1st, Ceci, Logan Brown
To Ott: Price

 

[danielpalfredsson]

What teams do you think will be in a similar position when the season is over factoring in UFAs that would not be coming back if the team took on Karlsson and Ryan. I guess with the Cap expected to go up that should increase the number of teams

A big thing to consider is there'll be a very good chance of a lockout happening in year 2 of a Karlsson extension. So a team acquiring Ryan might expect there to be a chance that they only need to survive 1 season with Karlsson at 10.5-12.5M+Ryan at 7.25M, and then they might be afforded a compliance buyout because of the lockout which could be used on the final 2 years of Ryan's contract.

DET
(22M in cap next season. They have lots of cap flexibility over the next few seasons with the cap going up and Kronwall and Howard coming off the books the same season as Karlsson's extension would be signed. They'll potentially have a top 5 pick in this draft which would be a nice piece to start with in a Karl trade.)

DAL
(22M in cap next season. They have Spezza's 7.5M and Methot's 4.9M that comes off the books the same season Karlsson's extension kicks in. Methot without a doubt would take a huge dock in pay on an extension if his injury troubles continue. Even with the Seguin raise coming up, they have loads of cap flexibility.)

VGK
(We all know this one already...)

SJS
(They have over 60M of cap space next season......Hertl will need a slight raise from his 3M cap hit, and they might opt to retain Thornton on a similar short term contract. Although, the odds of Thornton being around at 8M the year Karlsson's extension kicks in are low, and Paul Martin will also be off the books. The cap should be at least 7M higher than it is now when Karl's extension kicks in, and their only raises will be slight ones to Couture and Pavelski, and a possible bridge deal to Timo Meier although I'd be surprised if he wasn't a piece in a Karlsson trade....)

NYR
30M in cap space next year with Spooner+Hayes+Skjei+Namestnikov as their main players to sign. They might also look to dealing Zuccarello before his contract expires. Maybe we have to take and buyout Brendan Smith at a cost of 1.3Mx6 years as a consolation for them taking Ryan. That would free up an additional 3.3M of cap fo rthem.

BUF
They have loads of cap flexibility going into the next few seasons. Their only major raise to give out would be to Sam Reinhart if he is not included in a Karlsson trade package and eventually Linus Ulmark if he grows into a starting goalie.

COL
They might have a bit of a tough time due to the amount of ELC talent that'll be looking for raises when Karlsson gets his extension, but they also have a lot of money coming off the books over the next few seasons in Wilson+Soderberg, and a Karlsson acquisition would allow them to trade Barrie elsewhere which would free up further cap.

VAN
Sedins won't be taking up 14M of the cap forever. They have around 28M of cap next year with only the Sedins to sign on what'll probably be 1 year deals, and then a Stetcher, Virtanen, and Granlund. Boeser will probably require a Draisaitl like 8 year deal the same year Karlsson's extension kicks in which is a consideration.

FLA, MTL, NJD, ARZ can all also do it, but I'd imagine we aren't trading Karlsson to MTL, and with the other three they might be budget teams unwilling to spend to the cap.

If a compliance buyout seems too unreliable to hope for, teams can buy Ryan out the same year a Karlsson extension kicks in for 3.6M for 3 years and then 1.9M for 3 years after that.

Let's say Karlsson signs for 10M per on a tax friendly team that is willing to spend to the cap, buying out Ryan would create a situation where a team would have Karlsson signed for what works out to 13.6M for 3 years, 11.9M for 3 years after that, and then 10M for 1 year.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

We must not trade EK. It would be catastrophically bad if we do.

If we do. It must be for a ridiculous haul.

Brannstrom, Tuch, 1st, Theodore, Suzuki/Glass

Or Drai

Anything less would be a disaster.

Karlsson is a generational player in his prime.

We cannot afford to f this up. We will never have a caliber of EK again. Most important trade of our team’s existence.

But Ottawa must do everything imaginable to re-sign him. Everything.

All we have to do to keep EK is pay him fair market value. 10-11 x 8. It would be such a no-brainer for almost any other team.

But not us I guess.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

i still say that we could trade ryan for ladd instead of having to dump ryan in another deal and reduce value. Might even be able to get ladd+ for ryan if our gm had any balls

we get a lesser skilled player, but save 10 million over the contract and save 1.75 per year on cap hit. If Ryan is going to get pushed to the third line then this makes sense especially with ladds salary declining over his contract

It'd be a good idea if the Islanders would do it, but I wouldn't bet on it being plausible because ultimately they are producing similarly. Ladd also has a full NTC.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

A big thing to consider is there'll be a very good chance of a lockout happening in year 2 of a Karlsson extension. So a team acquiring Ryan might expect there to be a chance that they only need to survive 1 season with Karlsson at 10.5-12.5M+Ryan at 7.25M, and then they might be afforded a compliance buyout because of the lockout which could be used on the final 2 years of Ryan's contract.

DET
(22M in cap next season. They have lots of cap flexibility over the next few seasons with the cap going up and Kronwall and Howard coming off the books the same season as Karlsson's extension would be signed. They'll potentially have a top 5 pick in this draft which would be a nice piece to start with in a Karl trade.)

DAL
(22M in cap next season. They have Spezza's 7.5M and Methot's 4.9M that comes off the books the same season Karlsson's extension kicks in. Methot without a doubt would take a huge dock in pay on an extension if his injury troubles continue. Even with the Seguin raise coming up, they have loads of cap flexibility.)

VGK
(We all know this one already...)

SJS
(They have over 60M of cap space next season......Hertl will need a slight raise from his 3M cap hit, and they might opt to retain Thornton on a similar short term contract. Although, the odds of Thornton being around at 8M the year Karlsson's extension kicks in are low, and Paul Martin will also be off the books. The cap should be at least 7M higher than it is now when Karl's extension kicks in, and their only raises will be slight ones to Couture and Pavelski, and a possible bridge deal to Timo Meier although I'd be surprised if he wasn't a piece in a Karlsson trade....)

NYR
30M in cap space next year with Spooner+Hayes+Skjei+Namestnikov as their main players to sign. They might also look to dealing Zuccarello before his contract expires. Maybe we have to take and buyout Brendan Smith at a cost of 1.3Mx6 years as a consolation for them taking Ryan. That would free up an additional 3.3M of cap fo rthem.

BUF
They have loads of cap flexibility going into the next few seasons. Their only major raise to give out would be to Sam Reinhart if he is not included in a Karlsson trade package and eventually Linus Ulmark if he grows into a starting goalie.

COL
They might have a bit of a tough time due to the amount of ELC talent that'll be looking for raises when Karlsson gets his extension, but they also have a lot of money coming off the books over the next few seasons in Wilson+Soderberg, and a Karlsson acquisition would allow them to trade Barrie elsewhere which would free up further cap.

VAN
Sedins won't be taking up 14M of the cap forever. They have around 28M of cap next year with only the Sedins to sign on what'll probably be 1 year deals, and then a Stetcher, Virtanen, and Granlund. Boeser will probably require a Draisaitl like 8 year deal the same year Karlsson's extension kicks in which is a consideration.

FLA, MTL, NJD, ARZ can all also do it, but I'd imagine we aren't trading Karlsson to MTL, and with the other three they might be budget teams unwilling to spend to the cap.

If a compliance buyout seems too unreliable to hope for, teams can buy Ryan out the same year a Karlsson extension kicks in for 3.6M for 3 years and then 1.9M for 3 years after that.

Let's say Karlsson signs for 10M per on a tax friendly team that is willing to spend to the cap, buying out Ryan would create a situation where a team would have Karlsson signed for what works out to 13.6M for 3 years, 11.9M for 3 years after that, and then 10M for 1 year.

Awesome job. Good Analysis... A lot more possibilities than at the TDL.

 

[Langdon Alger]

i still say that we could trade ryan for ladd instead of having to dump ryan in another deal and reduce value. Might even be able to get ladd+ for ryan if our gm had any balls

we get a lesser skilled player, but save 10 million over the contract and save 1.75 per year on cap hit. If Ryan is going to get pushed to the third line then this makes sense especially with ladds salary declining over his contract

Trading for Ryan might convince Tavares to stay in New York.

 

[tony d]

That was a proposal I made @Sens of Anarchy; if we wanted Price we'd better be willing to offer up a good package for him. That salary though would scare me off.

 

[chipsens]

I just hope thst if...(hopefully not) EK is moved that we get solid prospects who can play in 1-2 yrs..not picks.

 

[Brannstorm]

Proposition: Get Tavares, trade Karlsson. Melnyk will pay for a big ol Canadian. He would even give him permission to go to the olympics.

Furtttherrrmore: Here is who we drafted to our team from the 2009 NHL draft: Jared Cowen (Ouch, 9th, good for him though got his money), Jakob SIlfverberg (39th), Robin Lehner (46th) Chris WIdeman (100th) Mike Hoffman (130th)

2008 Draft: Karlsson (ohh yaaa), Wiercioch, Smith, Borowiecki.

We also have duchene and Paajarvi from 2009 on the team now. Maybe we just like that year better.

I don't know where Tavares wants to go but I am guessing not New York. Maybe he wants to play back in his home province. Crazier things

 

[The Lewler]

John Tavares will never sign in Ottawa.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

That was a proposal I made @Sens of Anarchy; if we wanted Price we'd better be willing to offer up a good package for him. That salary though would scare me off.

Thing is, Price's salary and contract have a negative value. His performance is top notch, but we can't give up a top LW, a top 6 C prospect, a top 6 NHL defensemen, our almost done #1 goalie, and our 2018 1st. Terrible terrible value for the Sens.

 

[Sensinitis]

Thing is, Price's salary and contract have a negative value. His performance is top notch, but we can't give up a top LW, a top 6 C prospect, a top 6 NHL defensemen, our almost done #1 goalie, and our 2018 1st. Terrible terrible value for the Sens.

We would literally become the Canadiens. No talent up front with a very good goalie... Duchene and Stone would still be here but that’s not enough.

 

[TheNewEra]

Trading for Ryan might convince Tavares to stay in New York.

i didnt even think of that tbh but that could potentially be a bonus if it makes it work

hoffman-duchene-dzingel
ladd-C-Stone

doesnt look too bad, i know we do lose skill but for the sake of cap management(and actual dollars) it makes a lot of sense for us. And if we ever have to move ladd to line 3 like ryan it wont be as bad

 

[aragorn]

First, I'm not sure that any team who already have a very good right shot defencemen would trade for Karlsson unless that right shot D is coming back the other way. For example, why would Buff, Flo, LA, SJ, Dal & a few other teams that have very good #1 right shot defenceman already trade for Kalrlsson? Would Ekblad play second fiddle to Karlsson or demand to be traded? Who would get more ice time or PP time Karlsson or Ekblad? Unless that #1 right shot D is coming back I doubt any of them who are used to being the "GUY" would like be the second guy now. How many teams lack a very good #1 right shot D? I would look at those teams as possible destinations first.

It's really too bad about Ryan's salary & injury history because Ottawa could use someone like him in their top six, he's not only a thread to score, he's also an excellent playmaker. With a tweak here & there & good consistent goaltending this team has the potential to be a much better team. However, IMO I think it will come down to what they do with Karlsson as to which direction this management team is planning to go. If he is traded than I think they plan on rebuilding for the future & maybe to have a good team for the downtown arena. If they re-sign him than I think they re-tweak & try to make the playoffs next season. Should be interesting to see what happens after this season starting with the draft.