Rumor: Trade Rumors and Proposals - 13/14 - XII

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Same old story.

You'd think teams would be more careful with their 18 year old high draft picks. I say it every year, and every year it rings true: for every Crosby who can play in the NHL as an 18 year old, there are 3 Josh Baileys out there who had their development severely hampered by being rushed into the league before they are ready.

Even guys like Sam Gagner, who has had some success in the league, I think could have been a MUCH better player had the Oilers not rushed him into the NHL as an 18 year old. He'd be a far more complete player than he is now, I bet.

Luke Schenn is another great example of this. Guy had all the potential in the world to become a great shutdown D, but Toronto was desperate for defencemen, rushed him, and now he's what... a #4 guy at best? He's 7th for the Flyers in TOI.

It's just stupid. If I were the owner of an NHL team, and my GM decided to play my best blue chip prospect in the NHL as an 18 year old, I'd fire him the next day.

Exactly.

It's crazy. Teams spend so much on scouting, development and training, only to basically throw it away by rushing some of their top prospects.

Let the kids dominate junior for a year or two, or learn to play against bigger, stronger guys in their home leagues in Europe or in the NCAA for a year or two. It doesn't hurt the kids, and it gives the team a much better player for a decade or more.

 

[BonkTastic]

Exactly.

It's crazy. Teams spend so much on scouting, development and training, only to basically throw it away by rushing some of their top prospects.

Yep.

Like, here is a list of some guys who have played the season immediately after their draft year (other than the ones I've mentioned so far) since the Sens have been in the league who have not reached their full potential (in my opinion, at least) because teams got dumb and decided they'd rather rush a kid instead of waiting for him to be ready.

- Alexandre Daigle (1st overall)
- Chris Gratton (3rd overall)
- Tim Connolly (5th overall)
- Sam Gagner (6th overall)
- Radek Dvorak (10th overall)
- Rick Nash (1st overall) --> (yes, I think he could have been an even better player had Columbus not rushed him)
- Manny Malhotra (7th overall)
- Kyle McLaren (9th overall)
- Roman Hamrlik (1st overall)
- Evander Kane (4th overall) --> (possibly too soon to tell, but that's my opinion nonetheless)
- Aki Berg (3rd overall)
- Pierre-Marc Bouchard (8th overall)
- Radek Bonk (3rd overall) --> (yeah, I said it. Even me.)
- Luca Sbisa (19th overall)
- Jason Wiemer (8th overall)
- Dan Blackburn (10th overall) --> (Injuries ended his career, but the Rangers ruined it first by throwing him to the wolves too early)
- Rico Fata (6th overall) --> (Flames were stupid, and insisted he play 20 games with the club before sending him back to junior, then the following season sent him to the AHL instead of his last year of junior, which crippled his development)
- Jay Bouwmeester (3rd overall)
- Peter Mueller (8th overall)
- Patrick Poulin (9th overall)
- Dimitri Kulikov (14th overall) --> (I think it's safe to put him on this list for now)
- Pat Falloon (2nd overall)
- Jeff Friesen (11th overall)
- Mikkel Boedker (8th overall)
- Sean Couturier (8th overall) --> (once again, that's my opinion: I think he was rushed, and it stunted his overall game & development)
- Cam Fowler (12th overall) --> (see: Couturier, Sean)
- Chad Kilger (4th overall)
- Alexander Burmistrov (8th overall)
- Adam Larsson (4th overall) --> (the inspiration for this list)
- Patrik Stefan (1st overall) --> (the poster boy for this list)
- Rob Niedermayer (5th overall)
- Nikolai Zherdev (4th overall)
- Robert Petrovicky (9th overall)
- Brett Lindros (9th overall) --> (debatable, since concussions ended his career super-early, but he looked lost as a 1st year pro)


... have I missed any? I'm at the point where I just want to stop looking these guys up, it's depressing. I mean, dear god: look at all those high draft picks. Just look at them. A TON of guys in the 3rd-to-10th overall slot, basically just amounts to teams de-valuing their blue-chip asset because they got impatient.


Ridiculous.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I would add Tyler Myers, Jared Cowen (yep, our blue chipper, although injuries didn't help), Matt Dumba, and RNH from recent drafts.

Still surprised how Edmonton let an obviously (physically) under-developed kid in RNH play in the NHL. I hope those injuries he's been having to his shoulders don't kill what should be a PPG player.

 

[BonkTastic]

I would add Tyler Myers, Jared Cowen (yep, our blue chipper, although injuries didn't help), Matt Dumba, and RNH from recent drafts.

Still surprised how Edmonton let an obviously (physically) under-developed kid in RNH play in the NHL. I hope those injuries he's been having to his shoulders don't kill what should be a PPG player.

Myers didn't play NHL hockey until 2 years after his draft year (he played the year after his draft year with Kelowna), Dumba too (played his post-draft year with Red Deer). Cowen only played a single NHL game, and played out the full year in Spokane, so I don't think it really counts. I mean, sure, maybe they were all rushed (again, debatable), but they don't technically belong on this list.

RNH... man, I don't know about him. I think he goes on the "maybe" pile. Wait-and-see kind of guy. I think he can still reach his max potential, because honestly, personally, I don't think there was EVER any more to his game than what we're seeing out of him right now... but he plays for the Oilers, so who knows how he'll turn out.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Guillaume Latendresse?

 

[BonkTastic]

Guillaume Latendresse?

Played his full post-draft year in Drummondville.

 

[BK201]

Why does Calgary want a ufa?

To resign Cammy's not gonna resign but 9MM probably will.

 

[John Holmes*]

Cowen wasn't rushed. He was sent back to junior. Twice.


He just sucks.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Same old story.

You'd think teams would be more careful with their 18 year old high draft picks. I say it every year, and every year it rings true: for every Crosby who can play in the NHL as an 18 year old, there are 3 Josh Baileys out there who had their development severely hampered by being rushed into the league before they are ready.

Even guys like Sam Gagner, who has had some success in the league, I think could have been a MUCH better player had the Oilers not rushed him into the NHL as an 18 year old. He'd be a far more complete player than he is now, I bet.

Luke Schenn is another great example of this. Guy had all the potential in the world to become a great shutdown D, but Toronto was desperate for defencemen, rushed him, and now he's what... a #4 guy at best? He's 7th for the Flyers in TOI.

It's just stupid. If I were the owner of an NHL team, and my GM decided to play my best blue chip prospect in the NHL as an 18 year old, I'd fire him the next day.

Well said. I think this is especially true of defenceman. Not many d-men can come in at 18 and do well. Drew Doughty did, but he's a hell of a player. Most guys can't seem to handle it and I can understand why. I think a lot of guys get rushed into the league nowadays and it hurts them in the long run.

 

[SlapJack]

Yep.

Like, here is a list of some guys who have played the season immediately after their draft year (other than the ones I've mentioned so far) since the Sens have been in the league who have not reached their full potential (in my opinion, at least) because teams got dumb and decided they'd rather rush a kid instead of waiting for him to be ready.

- Alexandre Daigle (1st overall)
- Chris Gratton (3rd overall)
- Tim Connolly (5th overall)
- Sam Gagner (6th overall)
- Radek Dvorak (10th overall)
- Rick Nash (1st overall) --> (yes, I think he could have been an even better player had Columbus not rushed him)
- Manny Malhotra (7th overall)
- Kyle McLaren (9th overall)
- Roman Hamrlik (1st overall)
- Evander Kane (4th overall) --> (possibly too soon to tell, but that's my opinion nonetheless)
- Aki Berg (3rd overall)
- Pierre-Marc Bouchard (8th overall)
- Radek Bonk (3rd overall) --> (yeah, I said it. Even me.)
- Luca Sbisa (19th overall)
- Jason Wiemer (8th overall)
- Dan Blackburn (10th overall) --> (Injuries ended his career, but the Rangers ruined it first by throwing him to the wolves too early)
- Rico Fata (6th overall) --> (Flames were stupid, and insisted he play 20 games with the club before sending him back to junior, then the following season sent him to the AHL instead of his last year of junior, which crippled his development)
- Jay Bouwmeester (3rd overall)
- Peter Mueller (8th overall)
- Patrick Poulin (9th overall)
- Dimitri Kulikov (14th overall) --> (I think it's safe to put him on this list for now)
- Pat Falloon (2nd overall)
- Jeff Friesen (11th overall)
- Mikkel Boedker (8th overall)
- Sean Couturier (8th overall) --> (once again, that's my opinion: I think he was rushed, and it stunted his overall game & development)
- Cam Fowler (12th overall) --> (see: Couturier, Sean)
- Chad Kilger (4th overall)
- Alexander Burmistrov (8th overall)
- Adam Larsson (4th overall) --> (the inspiration for this list)
- Patrik Stefan (1st overall) --> (the poster boy for this list)
- Rob Niedermayer (5th overall)
- Nikolai Zherdev (4th overall)
- Robert Petrovicky (9th overall)
- Brett Lindros (9th overall) --> (debatable, since concussions ended his career super-early, but he looked lost as a 1st year pro)


... have I missed any? I'm at the point where I just want to stop looking these guys up, it's depressing. I mean, dear god: look at all those high draft picks. Just look at them. A TON of guys in the 3rd-to-10th overall slot, basically just amounts to teams de-valuing their blue-chip asset because they got impatient.


Ridiculous.

I think the ruined prospect theory gets way overblown in general. People look at the stats and fledgling careers of these guys and simply assume that management of these teams gave zero consideration to what's best for a player's development.

Is it a bad thing to be surrounded by professionals with years of experience in dealing with young men trying to break into the NHL? Absolutely not. Some kids need to go back because of physical and mental maturity issues, but the ones that stay will be carefully evaluated as time goes by. With training camp and the 9 game tryout phase, there's at least 6 weeks to get to know a player as a person.

Maybe there are mistakes made here and there, but it's safe to say that most of the guys on your list would never have realized the lofty expectations no matter how they were handled. Some of those players were just bad picks or from a weak draft class. And you have guys on it that have had either great success in the NHL, or younger players that have the odd growing pain on occasion. Fowler and Couturier have been handled very well and are doing great in the NHL. Bouwmeester and Nash are on the Canadian Olympic team.

There are probably just as many players drafted highly over the years that barely made a dent in the NHL even if they were brought along at a slower pace. The NHL doesn't ruin these kids, they're just not good enough for the NHL.

 

[SlapJack]

This is a list of 18 year olds that have cracked the NHL in their first season since the lockout. Keep in mind that I'm not including players who were late births - those guys are turning 19 shortly after the season starts and cannot be considered in the same breath.

2005 Crosby
2006 J.Staal
2007 Gagner
2008 Stamkos, Bogosian
2009 Duchene, E.Kane, O'Reilly
2010 Skinner, Seguin
2011 Nugent-Hopkins
2012 Galchenyuk
2013 MacKinnon, Barkov, Nichushkin

Pretty short list and you can't say that any of these players have been hindered from an early start. The only ones to consider would be players drafted by Edmonton or Atlanta.

 

[BUCKLE UP]

O'Reilly still amazes me. 2nd rounder with no expectations to impress at camp. Makes team

 

[Wondercarrot]

NJ
Lazar
Wier

Ott
Larsson

Stl
Spezza

Ott
Stewart
Paajarvi

Nyi
Anderson
Greening

Ott
Grabner
Pick

Mac Turris Ryan
Stewart Zibby Grabner
Michalek Smith Conacher
Condra Grant Neil

Larsson Karlsson
Methot Ceci
Cowen ??

I guess id go to watch Karlsson, otherwise those last 3 lines frankly look like crap, and the defence looks worse.
I reaaaally dont like that team...at all.

 

[Benjamin]

This is a list of 18 year olds that have cracked the NHL in their first season since the lockout. Keep in mind that I'm not including players who were late births - those guys are turning 19 shortly after the season starts and cannot be considered in the same breath.

2005 Crosby
2006 J.Staal
2007 Gagner
2008 Stamkos, Bogosian
2009 Duchene, E.Kane, O'Reilly
2010 Skinner, Seguin
2011 Nugent-Hopkins
2012 Galchenyuk
2013 MacKinnon, Barkov, Nichushkin

Pretty short list and you can't say that any of these players have been hindered from an early start. The only ones to consider would be players drafted by Edmonton or Atlanta.

and Gagner, Bogosian and Staal have all been disappointments. Its a very real possibility they would have developed better by dominating juniors. You'll never hear about a prospect being ruined from being in juniors too long but you will hear about prospects being ruined from being rushed.

GM's are not perfect. A lot of GM's have a ton of pressure to win now and are willing to risk a prospect to save their job.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Smid might be available from the Flames?

Considering the price he fetched in his move from Edmonton to Calgary I'd absolutely look at getting him to replace Phillips

Seems like a prime target

 

[Benjamin]

Smid sucks. There's a reason the Oilers, a team that needs defense, traded him.

 

[Qward]

Smid might be available from the Flames?

Considering the price he fetched in his move from Edmonton to Calgary I'd absolutely look at getting him to replace Phillips

Seems like a prime target

He has an escalating salary and has been going downhill for sometime.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Seems like a perfect replacement for Phillips who could be had on the super cheap

I think he just needs to play for a non-crappy team to find his groove back

Don't underestimate the damage playing the Oilers does to someone's confidence, then he went to Calgary who isn't much better this year

If he can be had for a late pick I'd absolutely look at getting him

He goes from making 3 to 4 from now to 2017, it's really not that big of a deal if the player budget was increased thanks to the TV deal

 

[Qward]

We have Claesson and Borowiecki as replacements for Phillips.

We need a top 4 RHD to go behind Karlsson so we can isolate Ceci for a little longer.

 

[HSF]

a defensemen isn't needed unless you want to add a legit top 4 defensemen and send ceci back down other than that a bringing in a defensemen will take away development from someone else

 

[Micklebot]

and Gagner, Bogosian and Staal have all been disappointments. Its a very real possibility they would have developed better by dominating juniors. You'll never hear about a prospect being ruined from being in juniors too long but you will hear about prospects being ruined from being rushed.

GM's are not perfect. A lot of GM's have a ton of pressure to win now and are willing to risk a prospect to save their job.

Never really liked this line of thinking. If a player busts who was brought along slowy, he just wasn't cut out for the NHL. If you busts after being brought up early, it's because the team ruined his development. There are lots of players who never developed as expected but were not rushed.

imo, there isn't much of a benefit to rushing players (if they aren't ready they won't be helping you win), but at the same time, I'm not sold that rushing them will ruin them either. Lots of examples have been thrown about, but whose to say they wouldn't have busted anyways. A guy like Bergeron certainly was hurt, while a guy like Skille hasn't seemed to benefit from being brought up slowly.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

We have Claesson and Borowiecki as replacements for Phillips.

We need a top 4 RHD to go behind Karlsson so we can isolate Ceci for a little longer.

Boro is not good enough for a regular NHL position, you can quote me on that

I guess Smid being a lefty does hamper his usefulness for our club though, did not think about that

 

[Qward]

Boro is not good enough for a regular NHL position, you can quote me on that

Will do!

 

[Langdon Alger]

and Gagner, Bogosian and Staal have all been disappointments. Its a very real possibility they would have developed better by dominating juniors. You'll never hear about a prospect being ruined from being in juniors too long but you will hear about prospects being ruined from being rushed.

GM's are not perfect. A lot of GM's have a ton of pressure to win now and are willing to risk a prospect to save their job.

How in the world has Jordan Staal been a disapointment?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Smid would be a decent pick up. Arent we near the bottom of the league in blocked shot and isnt blocking shots kinda his go to thing.