Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency XXVII

[Goose312]

Hey guys, Habs fan coming in peace. As you know, the Canadiens are looking for help down the middle, and need to reset the roster a bit. Pacioretty has been talked about a lot and I think it's fair to say it may be time to move on from him. He's a great LW, great speed, great shot, very good PKer, etc. He doesn't drive play on his own, but he's a great finisher, and I think he'd be a nice fit in Minny.

Assuming Fenton would be able to talk to the Pacioretty camp and find out they're got a good shot at re-signing/extended him...what do you think about Pacioretty for Charlie Coyle + your 2018 1st?

I've heard speculation that Minny was disappointed with Coyle, especially his play in the playoffs, but also with the recent revelations about the injuries he played through I don't know where that stands. But it does seem like Minny is ready to shake things up at least a little and move on from one of Coyle, Granlund, Nino.

The 1st is obviously a later round pick but is important to the Habs. Again, they need to reset, and build through the draft and I think there would be a decent player there at that spot.

A couple of questions:
- do you have interest in Max?
- do you think the return is fair?
- do you still see Coyle getting better, or has he plateaued and you're quite sure he's a middle 6 C/RW?
- is he more effective as a RW or C?
- does he play with a lot of energy?
- is he responsible defensively?

Patches is certainly the better player, but he's not a 1st better on the final year of his deal. He also plays exclusively LW which is the one forward position the Wild shouldn't be adding to, while Coyle can play both C and RW, the two forward positions they need to bolster.

Being disappointed in his play is one thing, but I think he's less likely to be moved than people on this board would admit because his utility and handedness give him unique value to this roster. Unless they are making other trades to fill the voids Coyle would leave I wouldn't move him for Pacioretty and I think it would take a player far more relevant to the team's needs to trade their 1st this year.

 

[Bazeek]

A couple of questions:
- do you have interest in Max?
- do you think the return is fair?
- do you still see Coyle getting better, or has he plateaued and you're quite sure he's a middle 6 C/RW?
- is he more effective as a RW or C?
- does he play with a lot of energy?
- is he responsible defensively?

Answering these in the order they were asked:
- I don't hate Pacioretty as a player, but his age and contract status make him a gigantic no-no for the Wild and where we're at right now. Our biggest problem is the gap between an aging veteran core (Suter, Parise, Koivu, Staal) and a younger core (Spurgeon, Granlund, Nino, Coyle, Brodin, Dumba). Trading for and extending Pacioretty would be pushing our chips toward that older core, and I think that would be a mistake. We did something similar when we traded for Pominville (at a time when it arguably made some sense to do so) and are still living with the consequences in the form of Tyler Ennis.
- Objectively? Yes. But personally I wouldn't want to give up Coyle straight-across for Pacioretty.
- I think he could be much better than he was this season and am starting to think he's poised for a real rebound next season. Confidence has been a problem with him for multiple seasons, including in 2016-17 when he put up 56 pts, but injuries (a broken leg and torn tendons in both wrists) seem like they were a major factor this year. He also spent most of the year on the 3rd line with underwhelming linemates. If a team trades for him and plays him in their top-6 all year I think there's a good chance he scores around 60 pts. It's more likely at RW, but even at center I think he'd do well with solid linemates.
- He's been more effective at RW for us, but he's also played with better linemates as a RW. His center duties have usually come as an injury fill-in on a depleted roster, so it's hard to draw firm conclusions.
- Sometimes. He can be an absolute physical force when he's on his game, but he can also go through some mean cold streaks. Seems to be mostly mental with him. A place like Montreal could either make him or pulverize him.
- Yes, he's good defensively.

 

[Wild11MN]

A couple of questions:
- do you have interest in Max?
- do you think the return is fair?
- do you still see Coyle getting better, or has he plateaued and you're quite sure he's a middle 6 C/RW?
- is he more effective as a RW or C?
- does he play with a lot of energy?
- is he responsible defensively?

He'd be a good fit, but there are salary concerns going forward I'm sure. Wild fans have generally not been receptive to the idea of trading for Patches, but I don't hate it.

Fenton, our new GM, has said he wants to build through the draft, so I feel it's unlikely he'd immediately give up a first rounder.

I think his ceiling is close to last year's production, but he doesn't drive play either, so he would need to play with some skill guys to reach that.

If Beast Mode Coyle showed up more than a handful of games per year, he'd be a potential star. I don't think that ever happens though.

 

[Tkachuky]

It's funny when people make lists like these, but completely exclude the fact that players taken 6th, 7th, 9th or whatever were readily available to be chosen at #5 as well.

Exactly... i.e. Canes passed on Monahan and Canucks on Tkachuk.

Point is.... 99% of the time its easy to say "oh they should have drafted player X"

Pretty rare that team go completely against the BPA predictions and go off the board. i.e Jankowski for the Flames a few years ago. Luckily it is looking like it may work out after all.

 

[Uberdachen]

If Beast Mode Coyle showed up more than a handful of games per year, he'd be a potential star. I don't think that ever happens though.

Beast Mode until injured, keep injury secret and play like crap for 2-3 months, lose rap battles to self in diary, repeat.

 

[Minnesnota]

You seem to take shooting, scoring, and forechecking for granted. Scoring goals is one of the most, if not the most, desired characteristics in hockey.

Kane is a better goal scorer than Zucker.

Kane Career G/GP: .32 (.53 w/ SJS)
Zucker Career G/GP: .29

 

[Goose312]

Kane is a better goal scorer than Zucker.

Kane Career G/GP: .32 (.53 w/ SJS)
Zucker Career G/GP: .29

Career for Zucker includes a lot of 3rd/4th line and PK time. You're trying to judge a guy who has played at most 17 minutes per game for a single season, spending most of his career so far in the 15 minute range to another guy who has played 20+ minutes per night most of his career. The fact that their goals/game are so close given their incredibly skewed utilization speaks worlds for Zucker who has a better goals/60 rate in every on ice scenario.

 

[Minnesnota]

Career for Zucker includes a lot of 3rd/4th line and PK time. You're trying to judge a guy who has played at most 17 minutes per game for a single season, spending most of his career so far in the 15 minute range to another guy who has played 20+ minutes per night most of his career. The fact that their goals/game are so close given their incredibly skewed utilization speaks worlds for Zucker who has a better goals/60 rate in every on ice scenario.

Zucker has played on playoff teams his entire career and Kane has played for shitty Atlanta/Winnipeg and Buffalo teams.
Kane had more goals in his first ever playoffs than Zucker has POINTS in his last 3 playoffs!
Kane over the last 3 seasons has played nearly DOUBLE the amount of short-handed time in like 20 less games!

Kane last 3yrs G/GP: .36
Zucker last 3yrs G/GP: .29

Huh, would you look at that!

 

[DANOZ28]

talk too me goose! zucker & kane are completely different players , kane was drafted 4th & zucker 59th. kane is more of a power forward whereas zucker is a finesse speed kills kinda guy. maybe together they'd be awesome?

 

[Dickie Dunn]

I'm starting to have this bad premonition that we will some how, some way, wind up with ROR and his $7.5M contract. PTSD regarding previous Sabres trades? Maybe but I keep having it.

 

[Bazeek]

I'm starting to have this bad premonition that we will some how, some way, wind up with ROR and his $7.5M contract. PTSD regarding previous Sabres trades? Maybe but I keep having it.

I know there's been a lot of chatter about it, but I think O'Reilly probably stays in Buffalo. Their motivation to move him should have dropped drastically once they won the Dahlin pick.

The exception would be if Botterill has really bought into the "culture change" idea and thinks O'Reilly needs to go. Even then I don't think we'd be the highest bidders. We could use him, but we don't need him the way some other teams do.

 

[Bazeek]

One of Pittsburgh's media guys (not one of the more reliable ones, apparently) has been insisting that the Pens will trade Kessel this summer. Not sure how I'd feel about it, but that's a win-now "tweak" that I could see the Wild pursuing. Something like Zucker/Nino + 2018 1st for Kessel seems like it would pry open a window for the next 2-4 years and require some sort of real rebuild beyond that.

 

[Wabit]

I'm starting to have this bad premonition that we will some how, some way, wind up with ROR and his $7.5M contract. PTSD regarding previous Sabres trades? Maybe but I keep having it.

ROR is a Koivu upgrade. He's really close in the d-zone, his scoring is way better, and FO% is much better. ROR/JEE as the 1-2 center punch in the upcoming years wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

One of Pittsburgh's media guys (not one of the more reliable ones, apparently) has been insisting that the Pens will trade Kessel this summer. Not sure how I'd feel about it, but that's a win-now "tweak" that I could see the Wild pursuing. Something like Zucker/Nino + 2018 1st for Kessel seems like it would pry open a window for the next 2-4 years and require some sort of real rebuild beyond that.

Makes me nervous because he's been a top 5 power play producer the last 3 years, and we don't have a Crosby or Malkin to help keep that going.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

ROR is a Koivu upgrade. He's really close in the d-zone, his scoring is way better, and FO% is much better. ROR/JEE as the 1-2 center punch in the upcoming years wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

I think Buffalo would want Eriksson Ek going back as a #2C replacement behind Eichel.

 

[Bazeek]

Makes me nervous because he's been a top 5 power play producer the last 3 years, and we don't have a Crosby or Malkin to help keep that going.

Agreed. Nino or Zucker with Malkin/Crosby might not score a whole lot less than Kessel with the Wild. It's hard to say how big an upgrade it is, or for how long.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

ROR is a Koivu upgrade. He's really close in the d-zone, his scoring is way better, and FO% is much better. ROR/JEE as the 1-2 center punch in the upcoming years wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

Its the cost that has me worried.

 

[Wabit]

I think Buffalo would want Eriksson Ek going back as a #2C replacement behind Eichel.

Buf has Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Larsson to fill in the 2/3C slots. They really need a LW and a babysitter for Dahlin (up in the air if he's a LD or a RD), center isn't that big of a concern going forward for them.

Ideally Koivu would be part of any ROR trade, but that ain't happening.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Buf has Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Larsson to fill in the 2/3C slots. They really need a LW and a babysitter for Dahlin (up in the air if he's a LD or a RD), center isn't that big of a concern going forward for them.

Ideally Koivu would be part of any ROR trade, but that ain't happening.

I think 2 of those 3 are going to be better served on the wing, and the third is #4C, at best, on a contender.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Its the cost that has me worried.

Yeah... it all depends on what Buffalo would want.

 

[duffy9748]

I have a pretty good idea of what’s in Minnesota’s system/on the current roster, but from an outsider’s core, I’m unsure of what Fenton’s plans are moving forward? As a Flyers fan, I’d have plenty of interest in a number of players including Brodin, Niederreiter, Coyle, and Zucker. The Flyers are loaded with picks and prospects, is that something you’d be looking for?

 

[Bazeek]

I have a pretty good idea of what’s in Minnesota’s system/on the current roster, but from an outsider’s core, I’m unsure of what Fenton’s plans are moving forward? As a Flyers fan, I’d have plenty of interest in a number of players including Brodin, Niederreiter, Coyle, and Zucker. The Flyers are loaded with picks and prospects, is that something you’d be looking for?

It's hard to say. Fenton's very early comments have been along the lines of:

- The team is close but needs "tweaks," which sounds like a continuation of what Leipold said when Fletcher was let go.
- He wants to build from the blueline out
- He wants to build through the draft

So tentative conclusions:

- Roster players are unlikely to be traded for futures (i.e. looking for "hockey trades")
- Defensemen are less likely to be traded than forwards
- High draft picks and prospects are unlikely to be traded

Really though, I don't think anyone will know much for sure until the draft.

 

[Wild11MN]

I have a pretty good idea of what’s in Minnesota’s system/on the current roster, but from an outsider’s core, I’m unsure of what Fenton’s plans are moving forward? As a Flyers fan, I’d have plenty of interest in a number of players including Brodin, Niederreiter, Coyle, and Zucker. The Flyers are loaded with picks and prospects, is that something you’d be looking for?

It's hard to tell. Fenton wants to build through the draft, so I don't think we're really looking to trade away futures at this point. But they've also made it clear we're not rebuilding, and they think this roster needs some tweaks in order to be a championship contender. My takeaway is that if we're trading any of the big names away, it would probably be more of a "hockey trade". That doesn't mean all of Coyle/Nino/Zucker/Brodin will necessarily be back next year, but I don't think they'll trade them for straight picks and prospects... this year at least. If things go poorly this year, I feel that could potentially happen in a year or two.

Edit: Didn't see the post above mine, but we basically made the same points.

 

[duffy9748]

Thanks for the input. Always thought you guys had real competitive team, just were up against some really good teams. IMO, I think it would be smart to take a step back for a year or two by moving some of the veterans for talented prospects/1st round picks. Easier said than done but I feel as if Fenton could quickly acquire a ton of assets to go along with the strong group of prospects already in the system.

Philly is really only in a position to move futures though so maybe it isn’t a fit. Simmonds could possibly work but all things considered, wouldn’t be wise for Minnesota.

 

[Bazeek]

Thanks for the input. Always thought you guys had real competitive team, just were up against some really good teams. IMO, I think it would be smart to take a step back for a year or two by moving some of the veterans for talented prospects/1st round picks. Easier said than done but I feel as if Fenton could quickly acquire a ton of assets to go along with the strong group of prospects already in the system.

Philly is really only in a position to move futures though so maybe it isn’t a fit. Simmonds could possibly work but all things considered, wouldn’t be wise for Minnesota.

I think the fans are more open to the "one step back, two steps forward" approach than ownership or management are, but you never know.