h10*
Registered User
- Jan 12, 2011
- 3,122
- 0
How good are teams when it matters most?
I was thinking a little bit and was clearly not busy at work so I had time to first think and then second do some research.
Take it for what you want but I'll give you the data because I spent far too long on this so it must at least be posted
What necessarily is key to winning games? Some might say the obvious things like GF/GA. But typically it's when the going gets tough how do teams respond. Whatever gets the job done, just win!
FenClose% really delves into that a bit by looking at key statistics in 1 goal games. But I thought I would look at how teams are in the 3rd period of games when going into the 3rd period tied, up by 1 goal, or down by 1 goal. How do you close out games when ahead? Can you comeback when the going gets tough? And can you break the tie on a clutch 3rd period goal?
I looked across all 5 top teams in the West because I just didn't have the energy to do another 3 teams in the east.
And I pulled data from all year so sorry to hockeylegend in advance.. I did account for Windsor pre Lemieux trade.
I looked specifically at these things which I think are key in determining teams situationally and a glimpse into potential playoff success
1) Faceoffs
2) going into the 3rd in a close game
3) overall record in all games decided by 1 goal regardless of score heading into 3rd period
I'll start with how teams are performing when going into the 3rd period when tied with a team, up by 1 goal, or trailing by 1 goal.
Erie-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 22-4
GF: 35 (1.346 per 3rd period in close games)
GA: 19
Goal Differential: +.616
Beyond that I did a breakdown:
Going into 3rd period Erie record:
Tied: 11-1
Up 1: 6-0
Down 1: 5-3
London-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 11-5-1-1
GF: 30 (1.666)
GA: 20 (1.111)
Goal differential: +.555
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 2-3
Up 1: 7-0-1-1
Down 1: 2-2
Kitchener-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 14-6-4
GF: 27 (1.125)
GA: 23 (.958)
Goal differential: +.167
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 5-1-3
Up 1: 8-1-1
Down 1: 1-4
Windsor-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 19-8-4
GF: 47 (1.516)
GA: 29 (.935)
Goal differential: +.581
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 6-2-3
Up 1: 11-1
Down 1: 2-5-1
Sarnia-
Overall record going in 3rd in close game: 13-5-5-2
GF: 27 (1.08)
GA: 23 (.92)
Goal differential: +.16
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 5-1-2-1
Up 1: 7-0-1-1
Down 1: 1-4-2
Most of the top teams in west have a decent record in close games going into the 3rd. But I realized each team is dominant when heading into 3rd period while having a 1 goal lead.. For obvious reasons (being that they are the best teams so naturally it's hard for many times to come back against their talent)
So if you look beyond that you can see a bit more of a difference by removing the going into 3rd up 1 category.
When tied or trailing headed into 3rd here are how teams respond when forced to or a lost is inevitable without breaking through
Erie: 16-4
London: 4-5
Kitchener: 6-5-3
Windsor: 8-7-4
Sarnia: 6-5-4-1
Overall games decided by 1 goal regardless of score going into 3rd period:
Erie: 17-2-1 (9-1 when going into OT/SO)
London: 6-3-2-1 (4-3 when going into OT/SO)
Kitchener: 9-3-5 (3-5 when going into OT/SO)
Windsor: 10-2-5 (7-5 when going into OT/SO)
Sarnia: 11-4-4-2 (4-7 when going into OT/SO)
All these top teams have similar stats, all have their own strengths and their own weaknesses. But largely Erie sits at the top due to their close game record.. Specifically their record in extra time/SO.
Now many things can become a factor in winning games late, coming from behind or holding a lead. Goaltending obviously critical. So is having leaders, veterans and experience.
I looked at faceoffs because you can actually measure it:
So faceoff percentage by each team and their top 3 draw players
Erie:
Overall percentage as a team: 59%
Strome: 469/746 63%
Marchment: 469/749 62%
Pettit: 496/791 62%
London:
Overall percentage as team: 54%
Dvorak: 536/883 60%
MacDonald: 265/511 52%
Pu: 344/652 53%
Kitchener:
Overall percentage as team: 47%
MacInnis: 357/774 46%
Franzen: 499/948 52%
Kohn: 246/498 49%
Windsor:
Overall percentage as team: 49%
Brown: 410/771 53%
Luchuk: 485/971 49%
Vilardi: 237/496 47%
Sarnia:
Overall percentage as team: 52%
Studnicka: 581/961 60%
Lajeunesse: 274/544 50%
Lindberg: 197/442 45%
Who knows what one can gather from all this data. I was just drawn to looking up the info because I swear Erie is always winning games by 1/2 goals. And the numbers speak to it.
Oh well it was a good waste of time for just a bunch of numbers that probably mean very little but these are how the top 5 teams perform in the "clutch" if you will and a look into faceoffs which are a critical part of any hockey game.
Enjoy and don't bash too hard.. I spent time on this so no hate please!!!
I was thinking a little bit and was clearly not busy at work so I had time to first think and then second do some research.
Take it for what you want but I'll give you the data because I spent far too long on this so it must at least be posted
What necessarily is key to winning games? Some might say the obvious things like GF/GA. But typically it's when the going gets tough how do teams respond. Whatever gets the job done, just win!
FenClose% really delves into that a bit by looking at key statistics in 1 goal games. But I thought I would look at how teams are in the 3rd period of games when going into the 3rd period tied, up by 1 goal, or down by 1 goal. How do you close out games when ahead? Can you comeback when the going gets tough? And can you break the tie on a clutch 3rd period goal?
I looked across all 5 top teams in the West because I just didn't have the energy to do another 3 teams in the east.
And I pulled data from all year so sorry to hockeylegend in advance.. I did account for Windsor pre Lemieux trade.
I looked specifically at these things which I think are key in determining teams situationally and a glimpse into potential playoff success
1) Faceoffs
2) going into the 3rd in a close game
3) overall record in all games decided by 1 goal regardless of score heading into 3rd period
I'll start with how teams are performing when going into the 3rd period when tied with a team, up by 1 goal, or trailing by 1 goal.
Erie-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 22-4
GF: 35 (1.346 per 3rd period in close games)
GA: 19
Goal Differential: +.616
Beyond that I did a breakdown:
Going into 3rd period Erie record:
Tied: 11-1
Up 1: 6-0
Down 1: 5-3
London-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 11-5-1-1
GF: 30 (1.666)
GA: 20 (1.111)
Goal differential: +.555
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 2-3
Up 1: 7-0-1-1
Down 1: 2-2
Kitchener-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 14-6-4
GF: 27 (1.125)
GA: 23 (.958)
Goal differential: +.167
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 5-1-3
Up 1: 8-1-1
Down 1: 1-4
Windsor-
Overall record going into 3rd in close game: 19-8-4
GF: 47 (1.516)
GA: 29 (.935)
Goal differential: +.581
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 6-2-3
Up 1: 11-1
Down 1: 2-5-1
Sarnia-
Overall record going in 3rd in close game: 13-5-5-2
GF: 27 (1.08)
GA: 23 (.92)
Goal differential: +.16
Breakdown going into 3rd:
Tied: 5-1-2-1
Up 1: 7-0-1-1
Down 1: 1-4-2
Most of the top teams in west have a decent record in close games going into the 3rd. But I realized each team is dominant when heading into 3rd period while having a 1 goal lead.. For obvious reasons (being that they are the best teams so naturally it's hard for many times to come back against their talent)
So if you look beyond that you can see a bit more of a difference by removing the going into 3rd up 1 category.
When tied or trailing headed into 3rd here are how teams respond when forced to or a lost is inevitable without breaking through
Erie: 16-4
London: 4-5
Kitchener: 6-5-3
Windsor: 8-7-4
Sarnia: 6-5-4-1
Overall games decided by 1 goal regardless of score going into 3rd period:
Erie: 17-2-1 (9-1 when going into OT/SO)
London: 6-3-2-1 (4-3 when going into OT/SO)
Kitchener: 9-3-5 (3-5 when going into OT/SO)
Windsor: 10-2-5 (7-5 when going into OT/SO)
Sarnia: 11-4-4-2 (4-7 when going into OT/SO)
All these top teams have similar stats, all have their own strengths and their own weaknesses. But largely Erie sits at the top due to their close game record.. Specifically their record in extra time/SO.
Now many things can become a factor in winning games late, coming from behind or holding a lead. Goaltending obviously critical. So is having leaders, veterans and experience.
I looked at faceoffs because you can actually measure it:
So faceoff percentage by each team and their top 3 draw players
Erie:
Overall percentage as a team: 59%
Strome: 469/746 63%
Marchment: 469/749 62%
Pettit: 496/791 62%
London:
Overall percentage as team: 54%
Dvorak: 536/883 60%
MacDonald: 265/511 52%
Pu: 344/652 53%
Kitchener:
Overall percentage as team: 47%
MacInnis: 357/774 46%
Franzen: 499/948 52%
Kohn: 246/498 49%
Windsor:
Overall percentage as team: 49%
Brown: 410/771 53%
Luchuk: 485/971 49%
Vilardi: 237/496 47%
Sarnia:
Overall percentage as team: 52%
Studnicka: 581/961 60%
Lajeunesse: 274/544 50%
Lindberg: 197/442 45%
Who knows what one can gather from all this data. I was just drawn to looking up the info because I swear Erie is always winning games by 1/2 goals. And the numbers speak to it.
Oh well it was a good waste of time for just a bunch of numbers that probably mean very little but these are how the top 5 teams perform in the "clutch" if you will and a look into faceoffs which are a critical part of any hockey game.
Enjoy and don't bash too hard.. I spent time on this so no hate please!!!
