Top 9 versus Top 6

glenngineer

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
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Franklin, TN
I've thought about this quite a bit and I think Poile has the right idea of how to build a team yet he misses on one component, which kills the chance to become a true Cup contender.

Most Cup contenders are built similarly. A couple/few elite forwards. Good secondary/depth scoring. A third line that raises their level of play in the playoffs and a fourth line that is for energy/PK. The d usually has someone who's elite, two other d who eat a lot of minutes and the rest are there to fill the rest of the minutes. An elite goalie is nice but not necessary to win it all. You need a good to great goalie, who gets hot for 2 months and has a team in front of them playing great team d.

Where does Poile go astray?

We have all the makings of the team described above except for the elite talent up front. Shouldn't an elite goalie make up for that? What about a d corps that is usually a cut above most other d corps'? It almost took us all the way because our top 4 d were playing well, our elite goalie did his thing and the rest of the team all chipped in. Minus the injuries to Johansen and Fiala, maybe we give the Penguins a run for their money. Going back in time isn't going to change things. Everything fell into place that year. Bounces went our way. Guys who came up to fill in scored big goals when it counted. Fiddler and McLeod even chipped in two GWG's if I remember correctly.

Back to the question at hand.

If you don't have the elite talent up front, the rest of the forward roster has to be built differently. We tend to view things thru the lens of top and bottom 6. This has to change. Without the top end talent in your top 6, you won't win in this league. You need the game breakers. You need the guys that will lift the team up and put them on their backs and get that big goal when it counts. They lift up the play of those around them. Realistically, do we have any forwards that make others around them better? The one forward that comes to mind was a guy who wore number 9 and made number 10 and 11 have their best seasons. That's what elite level players do.

My view is that if we're not going to have that high end talent, you need to supplement and get more from your bottom 6. Our top 6 as it currently stands is more like 2 good second lines. I'm fine with that, if we can boost the bottom 6. Poile has built the bottom 6 in the traditional way and as I've stated above, it's cost us year after year. The change I would make is finding a way to make the third line more of a second line and the fourth line to be more of a third line.

Honestly, we have the pieces to do so. The HERD line with Sissons is that perfect fourth line. They provided grit/PK and will grind away in the offensive zone to wear teams down. The top two lines as it stands today are Fil/Glass/Dutch and Nino/Joey/Granlund. That works. The third line is where we need the work. Parssinen is a good start in the middle. Once again, a big kid who will wear teams down come playoff time. He's shown the ability to score with or without offensive linemates.

Here's the rub, what to do with Novak if we've moved him off the HERD line? Do we play him with Parssinen and on the wing? Maybe move him between Nino and Granlund and move Joey to wing with Parssinen? Those are two big boys that could wear on some teams. Maybe slot Nino with them? What to do with Granlund and Novak? Pair them and give them some speed on the wing? Tomasino would seem to be a good fit there.

There's no guarantee this works but if you can get 50-60 points per player out of 3 second lines, does that make up for the lack of elite talent up front? Plus getting a little more from your fourth line doesn't hurt either.

All this notwithstanding, if you want more out of your top players, you have to give them top player minutes. The time for rolling 4 lines evenly is absurd. If you're struggling offensively, limit your fourth line players by playing them when a line needs to catch their wind. Give them 8 minutes a night and call it a day. I get the season is a grind but other teams are able to do this and succeed.

I'd really like to see us load up in the top 9 and see what could happen. Having to play against us could pose a problem for other teams especially when each line has a different skill set. It also allows the coaches to mix and match players to give different looks offensively.
 

101st_fan

I taught Yoda
Oct 22, 2005
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Near where sand and waves meet.
For all of the talk about lack of scoring up front, the reality is that scoring in the NHL doesn't match the perception portrayed on these boards.

2014-15 through 2021-22 saw a player reach 40+ goals a total of 54 times ... so an average of about 8 players per season across those seven campaigns, 2019-20 going extremely sideways. Last season's champions had nobody in that category while the Preds had two. Of course that is scoring in all situations whereas "top 6" and "top 9" inherently refer to forward lines at ES where Kunin's performance last season put him at about a #5 forward on average across the league in terms of ES goal scoring ... again, reality not matching perception.
 

Scoresberg

In Trotz We Trust?
May 28, 2015
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Earth
Glenn, you are bang on. That is exactly how the Blues were built during their Cup year and have been built ever since.

That is the only way we could ever win without having to draft a Bedard-level talent.
 

glenngineer

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
6,803
1,496
Franklin, TN
One thing I forgot to mention, what happens if we add an elite center to play between Fil and Dutch? Their production more than likely goes up. Other guys slot down in the roster to where they should be. Depth happens.

I was looking at scoring last night and Zach Hyman is 14th in scoring with 60 points. Fil and Josi are 78&79 and Duchene is at 88 with 41 and 39 points respectively. I get Hyman gets to play with the best player in the world but our best two forwards are being out scored by 20 points by Hyman.

One other thing, $17 million wrapped up in a second line that was completely invisible last night.
 
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