Top 5 scorers, 3 first overall picks

[vadim sharifijanov]

something goofy i just noticed.

as of today, the second, third, and fourth leading scorers in the league are first overall picks: nathan mackinnon, john tavares, and steven stamkos.

last year, connor mcdavid won the art ross, and sidney crosby and pat kane tied for second.

so it's not super rare, right?

in 2016, it was 1. kane, 3. crosby, 4. thornton

2015, 2. tavares, 3. crosby, 4. ovechkin

2013, 2. stamkos, 3. crosby and ovechkin (t), 5. kane

2010, 2. crosby and ovechkin (t), 4. stamkos

2007, 1. crosby, 2. thornton, 3. lecavalier

but it never happened, not even once, before 2007.

now i'm not one of those now is better/evolution of the game people, but scouting sure is a more exact science these days isn't it?

Click to read more...

 

[Sticks and Pucks]

I'd say scouting has gotten better since the 1980s. But another variable to consider is that 12 out of the past 14 first overall picks were forwards. Compare that to 6 out of 12 between 1992 and 2003. So there was less "candidates" drafted first overall to finish top 5 in scoring prior to 2007. Also consider that a lot of good European players eligible to be drafted in the 1987 to 1991 window such as Jagr and Bure weren't taken high due to concerns about whether they would be able to come to North America. In today's drafts, Jagr and Bure would most definitely have gone first overall in their respective draft years. Also remember that in the 1980s, Wayne Gretzky was not drafted (he would definitely have gone first overall had he went through the draft) and he also elevated some of his teammates such as Kurri and Coffey into top 5 scoring finishes.

 

[tempofound]

This also has to do with small sample sizes and the effect of a few outliers.

In the five examples you give of this happening Crosby is represented every single time, and OV is represented three times. So this happening a lot recently has a lot to do with those two guys. They're not your average 1st overalls but at least close to what people like to call generational. Them being selected first in consecutive years largely explains why this happened a lot recently. Granted if you remove OV, you still have Malkin.

Similarly, if I were to tell you that for eight straight years, an undrafted player led the NHL in points, would you conclude that scouting sucked in the eighties? Of course not, because its just one guy and he wasn't even eligible for the draft. So Gretzky being undrafted goes a long way in explaining why its never happened before.

In alternative history where Gretzky is eligible for the draft and is drafted 1 st overall you would have:

1980: Gretzky Tied 1st, Lafleur 3rd, Perreault 4th
1988: Lemieux 1st, Gretzky 2nd, Hawerchuk 4th

 

[tony d]

Interesting but yeah it probably speaks more to the talent of the players than the actual place they were picked in the draft. Gretzky went undrafted and yet he is the all time leading scorer.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

thanks @Sticks and Pucks and @tempofound for your thoughts. i think a lot of what you both say is very right.

one thing sticks out to me though: assuming that the top five scorers don't change between today and the end of the season (a very large assumption, obviously, but bear with me), that would be six distinct 1st overall picks hitting the top 5 in scoring over two years. crosby (05), kane (07), stamkos (08), tavares (09), mackinnon (13), and mcdavid (15). that's more than half of all of the top picks over an eleven year period, which to me is eye opening.

 

[reckoning]

76-77 top five scorers, and their draft pick:

1. Lafleur (1)
2. Dionne (2)
3. Shutt (4)
4. MacLeish (4)
5. Perreault (1)

 

[Canucks1096]

I'd say scouting has gotten better since the 1980s. But another variable to consider is that 12 out of the past 14 first overall picks were forwards. Compare that to 6 out of 12 between 1992 and 2003. So there was less "candidates" drafted first overall to finish top 5 in scoring prior to 2007. Also consider that a lot of good European players eligible to be drafted in the 1987 to 1991 window such as Jagr and Bure weren't taken high due to concerns about whether they would be able to come to North America. In today's drafts, Jagr and Bure would most definitely have gone first overall in their respective draft years. Also remember that in the 1980s, Wayne Gretzky was not drafted (he would definitely have gone first overall had he went through the draft) and he also elevated some of his teammates such as Kurri and Coffey into top 5 scoring finishes.

Very knowledgeable post.

 

[Thenameless]

now i'm not one of those now is better/evolution of the game people, but scouting sure is a more exact science these days isn't it?

I'm not sure if this is correct. I think it depends on the position of the best player in the draft, and how much better he is than his peers. Ekblad at the time was the best player in his draft and he will never win a scoring title. Dahlin is likely to go first overall this upcoming draft and he will never win a scoring title. Guys like Orr, Lafleur, Gretzky (though not drafted), Lemieux, Crosby, Ovechkin, Tavares, Stamkos, MacKinnon, and McDavid were all household names even long before they were drafted. They didn't need so much scouting per se. I think there's just been a better distribution of top end talent available the last decade. In an alternate universe, it's possible that 3 or 4 of these guys come out in 1 draft year or spaced out over decades.

 

[Sticks and Pucks]

one thing sticks out to me though: assuming that the top five scorers don't change between today and the end of the season (a very large assumption, obviously, but bear with me), that would be six distinct 1st overall picks hitting the top 5 in scoring over two years. crosby (05), kane (07), stamkos (08), tavares (09), mackinnon (13), and mcdavid (15). that's more than half of all of the top picks over an eleven year period, which to me is eye opening.

I think one thing to consider is that there is so much more pressure on kids at a young age compared to the pressure 30 years ago. Four of the players that were mentioned above (Crosby, Tavares, MacKinnon, and McDavid) were highly touted at a very young age. The fact that they still made it to first overall after so much media scrutiny growing up is a testament to their mental toughness and maturity, both of which are extremely important to succeeding in the NHL. Whereas kids in the 1980s probably didn't have to pass so many mental toughness tests to earn a high draft slot as there was less media scrutiny back then.

I also do think scouting has gotten better. Teams are paying more attention to scouting, it's easier to travel and watch kids these days even if they are playing in obscure places or lower level leagues, and teams are also learning from their past mistakes.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

update: as of tonight,

5 of the top 10 (mackinnon, mcdavid, stamkos, tavares, crosby)

and 8 of the top 20 (add ovechkin, kane, and hall)

are former 1st overall picks. feels historic, but i don’t have it in me to check previous years rn.


and of the 22 players currently in the top 20,

we have 8 #1s

13 top 5s

16 top 10s

19 top 20s

20 first rounders

leaving only kucherov (#58) and gaudreau (#104).


in 1991, the top 5 was gretzky (special case), hull (#117), oates (undrafted), recchi (#67), and cullen (undrafted).

 

[canucks4ever]

I would say scouting has gotten better. Most elite forwards today were either top 5 or top 10 overall picks. Although the 2011 draft sticks out like a sore thumb with Gaudreau and Kucherov getting drafted very late. There will always be a few Jamie Benns, Gaudreaus and Kucherovs that get discovered in the later rounds, but most elite forwards in today's era will be top 5 to 10 draft picks.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

update at the end of the season:

1. mcdavid
5. mackinnon
6. hall
10. crosby
11. ovechkin
12. stamkos
16. tavares

but what i think none of us would have expected at the beginning of the season is that two former first overalls are the hart trophy favourites, and neither of them are mcdavid or crosby.

some accounting:

1997: thornton, peaked at 1st (hart)
1998: lecavalier, peaked at 3rd
2001: kovalchuk, peaked at 2nd
2004: ovechkin, peaked at 1st (hart)
2005: crosby, peaked at 1st (hart)
2007: kane, peaked at 1st (hart)
2008: stamkos, peaked at 2nd
2009: tavares, peaked at 2nd (two time hart finalist)
2010: hall, peaked at 6th (...)
2013: mackinnon, peaked at 5th (...)
2015: mcdavid, peaked at 1st (hart)

...plus rick nash once won a rocket richard.

man did that 2004-2010 run of 1st overall picks feature big time hits. and man does erik johnson, who is a very good player, ever look out of place among them.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Rk	Player	PTS	Tm	Lg	Pos	Season	Age	GP	G	A
1	Nikita Kucherov	121	TBL	NHL	RW	2018-19	25	77	38	83
2	Connor McDavid	112	EDM	NHL	C	2018-19	22	72	39	73
3	Patrick Kane	102	CHI	NHL	RW	2018-19	30	75	41	61
4	Leon Draisaitl	99	EDM	NHL	C	2018-19	23	76	46	53
5	Sidney Crosby	94	PIT	NHL	C	2018-19	31	74	33	61
6	Brad Marchand	94	BOS	NHL	LW	2018-19	30	75	34	60
7	Steven Stamkos	93	TBL	NHL	C	2018-19	28	77	41	52
8	Johnny Gaudreau	92	CGY	NHL	LW	2018-19	25	76	35	57
9	Nathan MacKinnon	92	COL	NHL	C	2018-19	23	76	37	55
10	Mitch Marner	90	TOR	NHL	C	2018-19	21	76	25	65
11	Brayden Point	90	TBL	NHL	C	2018-19	22	75	40	50
12	Aleksander Barkov	88	FLA	NHL	C	2018-19	23	77	34	54
13	Blake Wheeler	88	WPG	NHL	RW	2018-19	32	76	20	68
14	Mikko Rantanen	87	COL	NHL	RW	2018-19	22	74	31	56
15	Alex Ovechkin	86	WSH	NHL	LW	2018-19	33	76	49	37
16	John Tavares	86	TOR	NHL	C	2018-19	28	76	45	41
17	Jonathan Huberdeau	84	FLA	NHL	C	2018-19	25	77	25	59
18	Sebastian Aho	80	CAR	NHL	RW	2018-19	21	76	30	50
19	Claude Giroux	80	PHI	NHL	C	2018-19	31	76	20	60
20	Mark Scheifele	80	WPG	NHL	C	2018-19	25	76	35	45

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

or another visualization--

Rk	Player	PTS	Tm	Lg	Pos	Season	Age	GP	G	A
2	Connor McDavid	112	EDM	NHL	C	2018-19	22	72	39	73
3	Patrick Kane	102	CHI	NHL	RW	2018-19	30	75	41	61
5	Sidney Crosby	94	PIT	NHL	C	2018-19	31	74	33	61
7	Steven Stamkos	93	TBL	NHL	C	2018-19	28	77	41	52
9	Nathan MacKinnon	92	COL	NHL	C	2018-19	23	76	37	55
15	Alex Ovechkin	86	WSH	NHL	LW	2018-19	33	76	49	37
16	John Tavares	86	TOR	NHL	C	2018-19	28	76	45	41

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

it's also interesting to me that kucherov will be the first 2nd round pick to win the art ross in 40 years, since bryan trottier.

and humour me here, but consider that jamie benn basically won the art ross by accident (scoring 4 points in his last game, 10 points in his last three games, and 13 in his last five) and the next three guys in the 2015 scoring race were tavares (1 point back), crosby (3 back), and ovechkin (6 back). if we call the 2015 art ross tavares', then this is what the art ross winners look like from when drafted players started to win them--

76 / 1st / lafleur
77 / 1st / lafleur
78 / 1st / lafleur
79 / 2nd round pick / trottier
80 / 2nd / dionne (tied with gretzky)
81 to 87 / gretzky (special case)
88 / 1st / mario
89 / 1st / mario
90 / gretzky
91 / gretzky
92 / 1st / mario
93 / 1st / mario
94 / gretzky
95 / 5th / jagr (tied with 1st / lindros)
96 / 1st / mario
97 / 1st / mario
98 / 5th / jagr
99 / 5th / jagr
00 / 5th / jagr
01 / 5th / jagr
02 / 11th / iginla
03 / 6th / forsberg
04 / undrafted / MSL
06 / 1st / thornton
07 / 1st / crosby
08 / 1st / ovechkin
09 / 2nd / malkin
10 / 3rd / sedin
11 / 2nd / sedin
12 / 2nd / malkin
13 / undrafted / MSL
14 / 1st / crosby
15 / 1st / tavares
16 / 1st / kane
17 / 1st / mcdavid
18 / 1st / mcdavid
19 / 2nd round pick / kucherov

so the breakdown for these 43 seasons--

1st overall pick + gretzky: 28 (splitting the '80 and '95 art rosses down the middle, 0.5 for each player)
1st + 2nd overall pick: 31.5
top three pick: 32.5
top five pick: 37
top six pick: 38
top 15 pick: 39
top 25 pick: 40
top 60 pick: 41

damn those TB outliers...

 

[Big Phil]

I think in general you are expected to have high picks be your top scorers. Scouting is better these days I think in general, but then I think of things like the Clint Eastwood movie "Trouble With the Curve" that proved you still need a lot more than just analytics and computers to judge a player. Even in the post-lockout era we've had Erik Johnson, Yakupov, etc. Either they have proven to be or don't appear to be anywhere near the best of their draft class.