Top 10 in scoring now and at the end of the season

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

In no particular order:
- Stamkos
- Kucherov
- Schiefele
- Stone
- Matthews
- McDavid
- Crosby
- Panarin
- Tarasenko
- Kane

 

[CertifiedLurker]

Well he's a 30 year old who finished 19th last year after coming off back to back 60 point seasons, its not impossible but it would be really surprising especially considering some of the names he would be in front of, I would not bet on Kessel finishing above Schieffle, Gaudreau, Kane, or several others. Also in terms of regular season scoring the first couple of months of the season have historically been Phil's bread and butter.

You're probably not completely familiar with the Pens which is understandable if they aren't your team. Out of context you're right about Kessel last year, however within the context that while he was wing for Malkin, his numbers were on pace for 90+ points last year. People forget that Bonino still ended up being his most common linemate last year, and his stats with Bonino were attrocious. If they actually keep him with Malkin, he's going to have a career high, save this.

 

[authentic]

Kucherov
McDavid
Stamkos
Gaudreau
Crosby
Matthews
Tarasenko
Kane
Scheifele
Karlsson

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Surprised how little Kane I see. Think he gets it going and fishes in the 5-10 range.

 

[Jets88]

Kucherov
Stamkos
McDavid
Scheifele
Wheeler
Gaudreau
Kane
Crosby
Tarasenko
Tavares

 

[Jonah Jefferson]

1. Gaudreau
2. Kucherov
3. McDavid
4. Karlsson
5. Stamkos
6. Matthews
7. Tarasenko
8. Kane
9. Scheifele
10. Malkin

 

[Peggy]

wheeler stays in
scheifele makes it as well

hf keep sleeping on scheifele

 

[djpatm]

1. Gaudreau
2. Kucherov
3. McDavid
4. Karlsson
5. Stamkos
6. Matthews
7. Tarasenko
8. Kane
9. Scheifele
10. Malkin

The tears would be so salty and there would be so much crow to be consumed.

I don't think Kucherov and Stamkoks are going to slow down enough for anyone to catch them. It's looking good for Gaudreau to finish top 5 though.

 

[Jonah Jefferson]

The tears would be so salty and there would be so much crow to be consumed.

I don't think Kucherov and Stamkoks are going to slow down enough for anyone to catch them. It's looking good for Gaudreau to finish top 5 though.

I have faith in Gaudreaus ability. While Kuch and Stamkos look damn invincible at the moment, I do think they will cool down eventually. Nonetheless, I think it will be a pretty even affair in the end. With Johnny clinching the #1 spot.

 

[Rebels57]

Even as a Flyers fan I expect Giroux and Voracek to fall out of the top 10 in scoring but I do think they will finish in the top 20, which is awesome considering where the last few years has been for them.

 

[Micklebot]

What's his shooting percentage? Do you think it's sustainable?

I'm not convinced he'll finish top ten, but I suspect his rate of assists will rise and mitigate any drop in shooting %. He's always been a high % shooter (not this high mind you), but more of a playmaker by nature.

Tbh though, what will hold Stone back (as has been the case in years prior) is his tendency to get injured and take a while before finding his grove upon return. He's not a flashy player, but the guy makes everyone on his line play better when he's on. He's a force multiplier.

 

[bukwas]

I sure hope Schwartz can stay healthy and finish top 10.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm not convinced he'll finish top ten, but I suspect his rate of assists will rise and mitigate any drop in shooting %. He's always been a high % shooter (not this high mind you), but more of a playmaker by nature.

Tbh though, what will hold Stone back (as has been the case in years prior) is his tendency to get injured and take a while before finding his grove upon return. He's not a flashy player, but the guy makes everyone on his line play better when he's on. He's a force multiplier.

His on ice shooting percentage is 12.1%

His previous seasons on ice shooting percentage:

8.8%
8.0%
10.5%

Its very likely he has some significant regression.

 

[Kovaz]

On Gaudreau: since Ferland got bumped up to the top line for the last quarter of last year, he's got 50 points in 40 games, including a league-leading 36 assists. I think it's very likely that he hangs around the top 10 all year.

On that note, over the same time frame Kucherov has 66 points in 41 to comfortably lead the league, so he's gotta be the odds-on favourite for the Art Ross this year.

 

[Micklebot]

G

His on ice shooting percentage is 12.1%

His previous seasons on ice shooting percentage:

8.8%
8.0%
10.5%

Its very likely he has some significant regression.

Gaudreau's on ice Sh% is 11.03, his previous years:

10.60
9.60
7.79

I guess he's due for some significant regression too?

What I can tell you is the scoring chance rates are up significantly for Stone this year, at 33.27/60, vs 28.81/60 last year, 28.68/60 two years ago, and 28.71/60 three years ago, so it's not really surprising that the puck is going in more when scoring chances are up ~15%. This matches the eye test too; he looks significantly more dangerous, or perhaps more accurately, consistently more dangerous, than last year. The same thing is happening with Gaudreau; his scoring chances are up, and so is his on ice Sh%.

Interestingly, I mentioned Stone as a force multiplier; this year, he's spending less time with less offensive players like Smith and Pageau (who saw significant boosts in offensive production while with Stone the prior two seasons); instead, he's getting a steady diet of offensive linemates in Brassard (who's enjoying a nice bounce back after a unsustainably low production year), Ryan, Dzingel and Hoffman. I think playing with these offense first guys is part of the equation.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

G


Gaudreau's on ice Sh% is 11.03, his previous years:

10.60
9.60
7.79

I guess he's due for some significant regression too?

What I can tell you is the scoring chance rates are up significantly for Stone this year, at 33.27/60, vs 28.81/60 last year, 28.68/60 two years ago, and 28.71/60 three years ago, so it's not really surprising that the puck is going in more when scoring chances are up ~15%. This matches the eye test too; he looks significantly more dangerous, or perhaps more accurately, consistently more dangerous, than last year. The same thing is happening with Gaudreau; his scoring chances are up, and so is his on ice Sh%.

I have Gaudreau's on ice shooting percentage at 10.9, but I certainly think he is due for some regression. I mean he's great, but I don't think he'll score 116 points. . .

 

[PsYcNeT]

The big difference of course being that Stone is primarily a goal scorer, while Gaudreau is a playmaker.

I mean, it's nice to see Gaudreau getting goals again, but I expect him to consistently be at 1.5x-2x as many assists as goals by season's end.

 

[Micklebot]

The big difference of course being that Stone is primarily a goal scorer, while Gaudreau is a playmaker.

I mean, it's nice to see Gaudreau getting goals again, but I expect him to consistently be at 1.5x-2x as many assists as goals by season's end.

Except that Stone isn't primarily a goal scorer, this year notwithstanding. He's very much a pass first guy that will take the shot when given the opportunity. He is, however, shooting more this year, in part because his line is playing a bit higher pace game this year and perhaps having better playmakers on his line is helping.

 

[PsYcNeT]

Except that Stone isn't primarily a goal scorer, this year notwithstanding. He's very much a pass first guy that will take the shot when given the opportunity. He is, however, shooting more this year, in part because his line is playing a bit higher pace game this year and perhaps having better playmakers on his line is helping.

So I guess in light of that, is it concerning that he only has 7 assists on the season? He might just be finding his scoring touch, but if his shooting percentage does level out to a historical median, would he start passing more?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The big difference of course being that Stone is primarily a goal scorer, while Gaudreau is a playmaker.

I mean, it's nice to see Gaudreau getting goals again, but I expect him to consistently be at 1.5x-2x as many assists as goals by season's end.

Gaudreau is the only one of the two to have a 30 goal season . . . he's absolutely a goal scorer.

 

[Rob Brown]

There is plenty of time left for McDavid, Crosby, Karlsson and Kane to enter the top 10, and I wouldn't leave guys like Benn out of it either.

 

[PsYcNeT]

Gaudreau is the only one of the two to have a 30 goal season . . . he's absolutely a goal scorer.

Right, in a season where he had exactly 1.6x as many assists. High goal scoring numbers relative to the league/team is fine, but I personally think it's more of a majority thing.

 

[djpatm]

Kucherov
Stamkos
Gaudreau
Tarasenko
Wheeler
Voracek
Scheifele
McDavid
Malkin
Tavares

HM: Karlsson, Kopitar, Stone, Ovechkin, Crosby, Schwartz

 

[BondraTime]

So I guess in light of that, is it concerning that he only has 7 assists on the season? He might just be finding his scoring touch, but if his shooting percentage does level out to a historical median, would he start passing more?

I am honestly struggling to understand what your point here is?

He has more goals this year thus far, that doesn't erase every year of his career since his 16 year old junior season.

This shooting goal/assist ratio isn't concrete, it's going to change throughout the year.

It isn't concerning he only has 7 assists this season. He has 12 goals...

It is extremely likely that this is going to even out over the course of the season. If it doesn't, great, Stone will have a 35-40g/25a season. I think it's much more likely he ends up with 30g/35-40a

Just because a guy puts up way more assists than goals doesn't mean he isn't a goal scorer (Gaudreau). It's not one or the other.

 

[Apotheosis]

I won't even try to round out a real top 10 because it's too subject to change over the season, but if we factor in pace and advanced stats, then something like this:

Stamkos, Kucherov, McDavid as the top 3 in some fashion. Matthews, Kane and Gaudreau rounding out the top 5-6. And then anyone of Malkin, Karlsson, Crosby and Benn after that.