Speculation: Theory as to why Eugene Melnyk backtracked on LeBreton

[ChelFan31]

Just came across this & it the theory does make some sense; thought I would share.


""
I'm led to believe that Melnyks recent comments about LeBreton not being as important for the Senators viability and sustainability long term is because of a recent fracture within the RendezVous Group.
Specifically talking about a fracture between Eugene Melnyk & John Ruddy. Don't think things are going so smoothly in that relationship. Word might have finally got back to Melnyk that ' Ruddy & other partners didn't want Melnyk doing the talking ' - as per Don Brennan podcast.

Might be the reason we saw a recent pullback in commitment in the LeBreton Project ... just a thought to ponder...

There have also been hints by local radio that this might be the case for why he said what he did. ""


IMO MELNICK wasnt as much enthusiastic about project on Friday when he talked to media as he has beem before.

Click to read more...

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Totally unsubstantiated and pure speculation.

In any case, Eugene Melnyk, sits in a prime position to prosper from either his Lebreton bid, or the other Bid, should the RendezVous LeBreton Group withdraws their bid.




Just to refresh everyone on the two Bids.
LeBreton Flats: Why the Sens bid came out on top

 

[ChelFan31]

Totally unsubstantiated and pure speculation.

In any case, Eugene Melnyk, sits in a prime position to prosper from either his Lebreton bid, or the other Bid, should the RendezVous LeBreton Group withdraws their bid.




Just to refresh everyone on the two Bids.
LeBreton Flats: Why the Sens bid came out on top

see that what i thought too. But then you think about it again for second time and it kinda makes some sense.

why would Euge go from saying 'this is essential , we need this for our future of the Ottawa Senators' to ' we dont really need this' 'well be okay if we stay in kanata, not really important'

Im thinking something went really south & soured sharply.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

see that what i thought too. But then you think about it again for second time and it kinda makes some sense.

why would Euge go from saying 'this is essential , we need this for our future of the Ottawa Senators' to ' we dont really need this' 'well be okay if we stay in kanata, not really important'

Im thinking something went really south & soured sharply.

You've given his comment a bit of a spin.


He did not say "We don't really need this" his actual words were ....


“I’m all-in, but it wouldn’t be a disaster for us at all if it didn’t happen,we need something to happen at one point. Something’s got to break for us somewhere. I mean in a positive break. We’re just sitting it out, working it through with the NCC. They’ve been cooperative, they’ve been reasonable.
We’re just going to try and get that completed. I don’t trust anything happening our way necessarily.
I’m not sure downtown is necessarily (the only option) … the league and others seem to think that, a lot of people question whether we need to be downtown. Because until the law changes, where you can’t give tickets to civil servants, that is a disaster for us. Everybody quietly took that.
Now we see the effects of that. What are you doing? We’re moving from the suburbs, where it’s built its own little base. Don’t forget: Are all those Kanata people going to come downtown? You’re just moving the arena closer to people who can’t get tickets.”



One reason, for casting some shade on Lebreton, might be that it's been over 53 years since Lebreton was flattened, and taxpayers have been waiting for the wheels of Government to come up with some use for that land, in the middle of the National Capital Region, and perhaps they need a little push, to get things rolling, as they're about to release an "update" in January on the progress of the negotiations, with Melnyk's group.

For the long term future viabilty of the Senators, the sooner a shovel gets into the ground at Lebreton, the better, and the less money Melnyk has to spend at the CTC if the Lebreton deal is held up by the un-elected politicians who make up the NCC.

 

[pepty]

Just came across this & it the theory does make some sense; thought I would share.
I'm led to believe that Melnyks recent comments about LeBreton not being as important for the Senators viability and sustainability long term is because of a recent fracture within the RendezVous Group.
Specifically talking about a fracture between Eugene Melnyk & John Ruddy..

I wondered about that as that seemed to be one of the principle takeaways from his Friday rambles.He was was all in on Lebreton so this "yellow flag" was quite a surprise. It sounded as though Ruddy had taken a step back or that Melnyk didn't have the resources to continue or both.

Bettman seemed to be very surprised to hear that he was equivocating on Lebreton and probably none too pleased.

 

[Inkling]

see that what i thought too. But then you think about it again for second time and it kinda makes some sense.

why would Euge go from saying 'this is essential , we need this for our future of the Ottawa Senators' to ' we dont really need this' 'well be okay if we stay in kanata, not really important'

Im thinking something went really south & soured sharply.

I didn't know about any fracture within RendezVous Lebreton, but I did immediately think that things might not be going smoothly in the negotiations with the NCC when I heard those comments. It was such a departure from the old narrative of needing a new home that we heard from Bettman. They usually try to stay on-script, but Melnyk is such a loose cannon that if things were going poorly I wouldn't be surprised if he was the guy who was unable to stay on message.

 

[pepty]

Don Brennan openly speculating here:

Brennan: NHL couldn't have been impressed with Melnyk's timing
The NHL will not lose the capital of Canada, especially when it has a toehold on a magnificently spectacular piece of property for a new area in the city, because of an owner it’s widely believed the league does not want in its fraternity anymore. More likely, it will find a way to lose him.
The Senators are not moving anywhere — except LaBreton. The deal will get done with or without Melnyk. And most of the betting is on the latter.
His last play was an error.
It also reeked of desperation, sounding a lot like it was coming from a man who doesn’t have the capital to fund the development of a new arena on prime real estate, can’t get the financing and can’t find a partner.

 

[harrisb]

I’m pretty sure there was a financial component to the bids ensuring the bidder could actually complete the work. If there is a fracture between Melnyk and Ruddy...there goes the money as trinity group would be doing the building. Melnyk’s ego would never allow him to admit he can’t afford it so now it isn’t the solution.

Had a great moment today, standing in an arena lobby, Dorion 15ft away, decided to bring up melnyk (on purpose) and it was hilarious to hear 15 people tee off on melnyk within earshot f Dorion. He was definitely listening....lol

 

[ChelFan31]

I wondered about that as that seemed to be one of the principle takeaways from his Friday rambles.He was was all in on Lebreton so this "yellow flag" was quite a surprise. It sounded as though Ruddy had taken a step back or that Melnyk didn't have the resources to continue or both.

Bettman seemed to be very surprised to hear that he was equivocating on Lebreton and probably none too pleased.

Even though Melnyk said on Friday he could do the whole Lebreton Flats project himself and finance it. I highly doubt he has that type of cash at his disposal.

He needs Ruddy to complete this project. Without Ruddy the finances won't work for the project. Melnyks pockets aren't deep enough on their own.

Maybe this fractured relationship is why he kinda backed away from the idea of moving downtown on Friday.

 

[ChelFan31]

I didn't know about any fracture within RendezVous Lebreton, but I did immediately think that things might not be going smoothly in the negotiations with the NCC when I heard those comments. It was such a departure from the old narrative of needing a new home that we heard from Bettman. They usually try to stay on-script, but Melnyk is such a loose cannon that if things were going poorly I wouldn't be surprised if he was the guy who was unable to stay on message.

Think you nailed it. Melnyk is a loose cannon. I think it's why John Ruddy would like Melnyk not to do the talking like Donnie Brenan alluded to in his interview on RideThePineShow a couple weeks back.

 

[ChelFan31]

I’m pretty sure there was a financial component to the bids ensuring the bidder could actually complete the work. If there is a fracture between Melnyk and Ruddy...there goes the money as trinity group would be doing the building. Melnyk’s ego would never allow him to admit he can’t afford it so now it isn’t the solution.

Had a great moment today, standing in an arena lobby, Dorion 15ft away, decided to bring up melnyk (on purpose) and it was hilarious to hear 15 people tee off on melnyk within earshot f Dorion. He was definitely listening....lol

You would think Melnyk would put any differences he had with Ruddy & push them aside for the greater good of both parties business wise...

Yet this idiot is willing to mess up the whole Lebreton project because his big ego might be hurt. He's literally Trump Canada ; extremely sensitive, thin skinned.

 

[Stylizer1]

I can't wait until Melnyk decides to sue the NHL. lol

 

[Samboni]

I think he wants to put pressure on the NCC to shit or get off the pot. It's about applying leverage e.g. " you need me more than I need you cause I have other options".

 

[slamigo]

Maybe he believes that a Silicon Valley North situation may be sparked again? If some heavy hitters came to Kanata (i.e. Google or Amazon) and set up shop in the West end, keeping the team in Kanata may not be the worst decision. Who knows what he is thinking though. lol

 

[Knave]

Maybe he believes that a Silicon Valley North situation may be sparked again? If some heavy hitters came to Kanata (i.e. Google or Amazon) and set up shop in the West end, keeping the team in Kanata may not be the worst decision. Who knows what he is thinking though. lol

But the Amazon bid by the city is LeBreton Flats. I guess he thinks he has leverage... I don't really see it. His only other move is keep the team in Kanata where he alleges he has lost and continues to lose a lot of money.

Even if he was allowed to move by the NHL, he's not picking up and moving to an arena he has to pay rent to.

 

[Micklebot]

I think he wants to put pressure on the NCC to **** or get off the pot. It's about applying leverage e.g. " you need me more than I need you cause I have other options".

Lets be honest here; the only reason the two competing bids had an arena in their proposals was because they thought it increased their odds of winning. If having a hockey team/arena is no longer an option, the NCC will have no problems finding someone to take over the development of that land. The NCC doesn't need Melnyk more than he needs them. If he takes his ball and leaves, they'll find something else to put in there.

 

[Back in Black]

NCC will have no problems finding someone to take over the development of that land. The NCC doesn't need Melnyk more than he needs them. If he takes his ball and leaves, they'll find something else to put in there.

The NCC can put up a parking lot, and make money...

 

[pepty]

Sometimes Don Brennan says things that make sense
From Feb 2016:

The reason Eugene Melnyk kept getting asked if he will sell the Senators should he lose the LeBreton Flats bid to Devcore is that it’s difficult to believe him when he says no.
Especially when he follows up by maintaining he would continue to operate the team out of its current home in a Kanata cornfield.
Melnyk, who already claims he’s losing millions, would lose a lot more if another new, world-class facility was owned by someone else downtown.
The Senators count heavily on non-hockey events to fill their building and pad their budget.
When Garth Brooks comes to Ottawa, he’s going to perform on the grand new stage in the heart of the city rather than head out to the burbs.
Same with the other big acts.
That Melnyk remains steadfast is confusing — unless the Senators really aren’t losing the millions they claim.
It seems the only way to explain why he would hold on to the team and keep it the Kanata cornfield.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I think he wants to put pressure on the NCC to **** or get off the pot. It's about applying leverage e.g. " you need me more than I need you cause I have other options".

lol NCC has all the leverage here, if they don't wish to work with him anymore, they can just pack up and go to the next bid, or cancel the whole process together. Nobody has signed anything yet, and they own one of the most coveted development lands in the country.

 

[ottawah]

This may also be there to put pressure on the governments (local and federal).

I see three likely scenarios here. And in fact scenario 1 is probably a fact :

1) The cost of cleaning up the contamination at the site is causing friction in the negotiations. The fact is no one knows the costs. The low estimation is 40M, the upper I have heard is 175M. The mayor was on the radio several months back and was adamant the city is no way would be picking up that tab. You can bet that the development group wants nothing to do with it. The federal government could be balking (pure speculation on my part) as they are already giving up land worth 100+M. This could have a huge impact on the financials for the project, if they are getting a flat out no from the city (thats 100% certain) and the feds (no idea), this could be a move to apply pressure to them.

2) Financial aid. This is speculation, but based on what happened in Edmonton and Calgary. In Edmonton the total price tag was 613.7M, with the owner (Katz) writing a cheque for 25M and the city "covering" the rest. The city will recoup that over the 40 year lifetime in ticket surcharges, rent and tax levies. But the key was the owner only had to front 25M. Calgary wanted much the same deal, and it obviously was not going to work and hence they are in the process of determining the next steps (which sounds much like Melnyks speech). It would not surprise me if the same thing is playing out here in Ottawa. Melnyk could easily be looking for an Edmonton type deal, and being offered a Calgary type deal. In that case why would he not act much like the Calgary team and say they may have to move.

3) Melnyk may be pushing for the government to allow federal employees to accept tickets from suppliers. That will have a huge impact on what he can charge downtown, and will especially be critical to filling up luxury boxes. Given how poorly the government are doing at ethics at the moment, I cannot see that flying.

This whole speech at what is likely a critical juncture of negotiations (aren't they supposed to be up end of Jan?) may be more about applying pressure for negotiations.

 

[tony d]

Interesting situation for sure. I, for one, hope we see a solution soon and 1 that includes both a new arena for the team and a co-owner for Melnyk.

 

[DrEasy]

The NCC can put up a parking lot, and make money...

They could call it "Paved Paradise".

 

[ottawah]

The NCC can put up a parking lot, and make money...

Someone who does not know the NCC ....

This group could get a monopoly on pot sales and still find a way to lose millions ..... Even within the government they are well known for their inefficiency.

 

[BonkTastic]

Totally unsubstantiated and pure speculation.

That's why he called it a "theory" and not a "confirmed with source".

 

[BonkTastic]

Sometimes Don Brennan says things that make sense
From Feb 2016:

The reason Eugene Melnyk kept getting asked if he will sell the Senators should he lose the LeBreton Flats bid to Devcore is that it’s difficult to believe him when he says no.
Especially when he follows up by maintaining he would continue to operate the team out of its current home in a Kanata cornfield.
Melnyk, who already claims he’s losing millions, would lose a lot more if another new, world-class facility was owned by someone else downtown.
The Senators count heavily on non-hockey events to fill their building and pad their budget.
When Garth Brooks comes to Ottawa, he’s going to perform on the grand new stage in the heart of the city rather than head out to the burbs.
Same with the other big acts.
That Melnyk remains steadfast is confusing — unless the Senators really aren’t losing the millions they claim.
It seems the only way to explain why he would hold on to the team and keep it the Kanata cornfield.

I'll say this much - if someone else other than Melnyk develops LeBreton and puts a world-class "Arena + Concert Venue" there, it would put the team at risk of being legitimate bottom-feeders from a payroll perspective.

Melnyk would lose almost every concert revenue stream. The only thing he'd be able to keep are the low-rent events like monster truck rallies and pro bull fighting. There's no way he wouldn't lean into the Sens side of that ledger to make up the losses.