- Apr 27, 2005
- 33,712
- 30,022
I don't think Dubois will ever be worth his contract, but he's only overpaid by ~1-2M IMO, while Huberdeau is overpaid by about 6M while being 5 years older.
At first glance, it looks like Dubois' production fell off a cliff this year after a career high 63 points last year (71 point pace). But digging a bit deeper, that's not really an honest appraisal.
Compared to last year, his role was significantly reduced, especially with being dropped to PP2. His PP TOI was cut nearly in half, and his ES TOI dropped by more than a minute. But surprisingly, his 5v5 production was arguably the best we've seen from since before the pandemic. Here's his 5v5 scoring rates over the last 4 years:
2021: 1.21 P/60 0.91 P1/60 6.6% oish%
2022: 1.66 P/60 1.16 P1/60 8.0% oish%
2023: 1.78 P/60 1.19 P1/60 9.9% oish%
2024: 1.75 P/60 1.30 P1/60 7.7% oish%
His P1/60 has climbed for 4 straight seasons, despite a 22% drop in his oish% this year. His 5v5 scoring was effectively identical to Kopitar. Oddly enough, the King's 3 top centers all had nearly identical 5v5 point totals:
Danault
33p 1.87 p/60 8.0 oish%
Kopitar
32p 1.75 p/60 9.2 oish%
Dubois
31p 1.75 p/60 7.7 oish%
And compared to Huberdeau, Dubois was a fair bit more productive while playing the more important position (Huberdeau had 27p and 1.46 p/60 at 5v5).
Looking at it from that perspective, Dubois didn't appear to have that bad of a year, even with a lower oish%. I think he'd quite easily bounce back to a 60-70 point player if given a larger PP role and a bit more ES ice time.
At first glance, it looks like Dubois' production fell off a cliff this year after a career high 63 points last year (71 point pace). But digging a bit deeper, that's not really an honest appraisal.
Compared to last year, his role was significantly reduced, especially with being dropped to PP2. His PP TOI was cut nearly in half, and his ES TOI dropped by more than a minute. But surprisingly, his 5v5 production was arguably the best we've seen from since before the pandemic. Here's his 5v5 scoring rates over the last 4 years:
2021: 1.21 P/60 0.91 P1/60 6.6% oish%
2022: 1.66 P/60 1.16 P1/60 8.0% oish%
2023: 1.78 P/60 1.19 P1/60 9.9% oish%
2024: 1.75 P/60 1.30 P1/60 7.7% oish%
His P1/60 has climbed for 4 straight seasons, despite a 22% drop in his oish% this year. His 5v5 scoring was effectively identical to Kopitar. Oddly enough, the King's 3 top centers all had nearly identical 5v5 point totals:
Danault
33p 1.87 p/60 8.0 oish%
Kopitar
32p 1.75 p/60 9.2 oish%
Dubois
31p 1.75 p/60 7.7 oish%
And compared to Huberdeau, Dubois was a fair bit more productive while playing the more important position (Huberdeau had 27p and 1.46 p/60 at 5v5).
Looking at it from that perspective, Dubois didn't appear to have that bad of a year, even with a lower oish%. I think he'd quite easily bounce back to a 60-70 point player if given a larger PP role and a bit more ES ice time.
