The State of the Leafs - what do we have here, exactly?

The Best Leafs Ever

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Feb 28, 2017
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Sums it up to pretty much no superstar and a buch of average to above average players. How pathetic this team looks!? Only 1 player barely over ppg and no one can even score 80-90-100 points. Just a bunch of mediocres.
 

meefer

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Jun 9, 2015
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@zeke, many thanks for taking the time to do this.
Some funny comments here, especially the old man angry post :)
My only 'concern' is the analysis of Brown. No disagreement with the numbers, they are what they are, but I would have to ask how has Babcock tasked Brown since his move to the Bozak/JVR line? I suspect he was asked to be the defensive, reliable factor on that 3rd line, allowing JVR, especially, to focus on offense, while hurting his own contributions which might have been more significant were he placed elsewhere in the line-up.
As I think of it, I'll also be curious to see how Komarov plays in the postseason. I'm not as down on him as others and think that he can 'rebound' during the time that matters most.
Agree with the D comment section. Yes, Rielly is a #1 and will soon move into the discussion of 'Norris'. It's the right side that has me worried and Zeke's concern about not having a proper #1 pairing (not a number 1, but a player that can successfully play on the #1 pairing) at RD mirrors my own. We're looking at a D group that is one player short on the R side, I've argued that 2 out of 3 of our RDs are going to have to pick up their game if we want to move forward. FWIW, I'm praying for a resurgence of Hainsey and believe - Polak (gasp) - is more likely than Zaitsev to have an impactful playoffs.
 

zeke

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Mar 14, 2005
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My only 'concern' is the analysis of Brown. No disagreement with the numbers, they are what they are, but I would have to ask how has Babcock tasked Brown since his move to the Bozak/JVR line? I suspect he was asked to be the defensive, reliable factor on that 3rd line, allowing JVR, especially, to focus on offense, while hurting his own contributions which might have been more significant were he placed elsewhere in the line-up.

Yeah I may have been harsh on Brown. I'm re-thinking it.

As for Leo - yeah, it wouldn't be a massive shock to see him step it up in the playoffs and look more like last year's Leo.
 

Discordia

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Nov 1, 2017
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Bad starter, bad coach, bad defensive acumen in the forward lines, bad defense on the defense.

Great young offensive talent at forward. Good young offensive talent at D.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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Sep 28, 2015
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Yeah I may have been harsh on Brown. I'm re-thinking it.

As for Leo - yeah, it wouldn't be a massive shock to see him step it up in the playoffs and look more like last year's Leo.
Do you think that's likely? He was pretty awful in last year's playoffs. Plus Boston is used to getting hit
 

The Hanging Jowl

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Apr 2, 2017
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I hate stats. I just watch the games (every one this year) and hope we play well and win. Number crunching just doesn't cut it for me. Stats and the lineup opinions, I just shake my head at. I haven't got a clue what corsi is, nor do I care. It's all eye test for me.

Don't be so pessimistic.
 
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Kanu

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May 10, 2016
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Great work, as always. Thanks for putting the work into this.
 

moon111

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Oct 18, 2014
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Now all we need to do is compile a bunch of stats on how you would build the team from the fourth line up, rather then the first line down.
Hits, Takeaways, Blocked-shots, etc. And then throw in other aspects that don't show up statistically at all. Like if Rick Nash is parked
in front of the net, who get put out there to handle him? Boston scores from the point, how many forwards will reliably be pinching this
off reliably? And who can really kill penalties? I don't see any logic in using Andreas Borgman, who has 6:26 minutes killing penalties,
up against Pastrnak, Bergeron, Marchand, Krug, etc.
 

Polaris1010

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Mar 23, 2017
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but if you think think this reading of the advanced stats matches your eye test.....shouldn't that make you put more faith into them, especially in regards to games and players you don't watch all the time?

you seem to want stats that disagree with what you see?

1. The short answer is life is too short, and would rather spend free doing something like watch the Leafs but not delve too deeply into all the stats available. Some sports fans love that, that's fine. Different strokes for different folks.

2. Data, tends to have anomalies. When the stats seem off, any stat on anything, then probably best thing to do is not overact like other posters in this forum. Just give it time, another 5 to 20 games. Hockey is like Darwinism. You wind up where you belong. The stats tell the story. The stats are not the story, like other posters believe here. The stats can tell the story, but often not the whole story. The data anomaly. What's the story there? That's my theoretical answer why I do not wish to follow too much data.

3. My faith in advanced stats, is not the way I look at it. It is more utilitarian. Such as ... what am I going to use it for? I don't know. So, it goes nowhere fast.

4. Yes, I would like to become aware of any new stat that challenges conventional wisdom on the good ole hockey, stats that disagree with what I see.

That way we can explore whether the game is changing.

Currently, these advanced stats in use, do not really challenge conventional wisdom. It is just emphasizes certain aspects of the game over other aspects of the game.

That in itself, is a hockey debate. What part of the game, and how to build a team, that is a hockey question since hockey was invented.

A few people criticizing Babcock's lineup decisions say you should do it this way. But that debate is ongoing for as long as I have been watching hockey. Back in the day, it was the same debate, and there was no advanced stats back then. From that angle, advanced stats is nothing radical.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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1. The short answer is life is too short, and would rather spend free doing something like watch the Leafs but not delve too deeply into all the stats available. Some sports fans love that, that's fine. Different strokes for different folks.

I guess my question is - why do you feel the need to point out how much you don't care about something? I know I don't go around telling people how uninterested I am in their interests.

2. Data, tends to have anomalies. When the stats seem off, any stat on anything, then probably best thing to do is not overact like other posters in this forum. Just give it time, another 5 to 20 games. Hockey is like Darwinism. You wind up where you belong. The stats tell the story. The stats are not the story, like other posters believe here. The stats can tell the story, but often not the whole story. The data anomaly. What's the story there? That's my theoretical answer why I do not wish to follow too much data.

That sounds nice, but here's the thing - you use hockey stats all the time. They are always part of your hockey story. You just choose to prefer the stats you have always known. That's all. You're not anti stats - you're just anti new stats. So while this romantic anti-data ideal sounds nice, you don't actually believe in it. You know goals, you know assists, you know plus minus, you know GAA, and you use them and have always used them.

3. My faith in advanced stats, is not the way I look at it. It is more utilitarian. Such as ... what am I going to use it for? I don't know. So, it goes nowhere fast.

You use stats to help analyze, evaluate, and compare hockey players and teams and systems and anything else you're interested in.

Importantly, it's not fans who do this, but hockey professionals - nhl organizations spend millions of dollars collecting and utilizing this data. The people with the most interest in and love of hockey use this data the most.

. Yes, I would like to become aware of any new stat that challenges conventional wisdom on the good ole hockey, stats that disagree with what I see.

That way we can explore whether the game is changing.

Currently, these advanced stats in use, do not really challenge conventional wisdom. It is just emphasizes certain aspects of the game over other aspects of the game.

These analytics have already vastly changed the game, and are a main reason why the game has moved away from grit and toughness and to speed and skill. They have challenged conventional wisdom, and won.

That in itself, is a hockey debate. What part of the game, and how to build a team, that is a hockey question since hockey was invented.

A few people criticizing Babcock's lineup decisions say you should do it this way. But that debate is ongoing for as long as I have been watching hockey. Back in the day, it was the same debate, and there was no advanced stats back then. From that angle, advanced stats is nothing radical.

Like it or not, analytics have improved our knowledge and the precision of our analysis in every aspect of life - whether that's sports or business or science or politics or anything else, really.

Maybe you find debate with only subjective opinions and no evidence on either side to be satisfying, but for me, that's a special kind of hell. Maybe you have the utmost confidence in your own hockey scouting skill that you can scout players and teams perfectly from limited viewings on TV, but I don't have quite that much confidence myself. Even better, I can use data to improve my own eye test - data that goes against what I see forces me to watch closer, and appreciate things that maybe I didn't before.

If you'd rather not bother with it, that's fine. But maybe ask yourself why you feel the need to share with everyone how much you aren't interested in what they are interested in?

For me it's simple - do these stats describe hockey well or don't they? I think they do, in a way that the stats i knew as a kid never came remotely close to. I find they describe hockey massively better than most "expert" opinions we are forced to listen to or read.

See, you may not be interested in these stats.....but let me tell you what i'm not interested in - i'm not interested in what passes for "expert analysis" in the media. I don't read sports sections any more. I don't listen to talk radio. I don't watch pre game or intermission talking heads. I gave up on them years and years ago. Because their description of what's happening out there on the ice is generally bad. Much of it awful and completely backwards. They're rarely right about anything and are never held to account when they're inevitably shown to be wrong.

So maybe you're interested in listening to don cherry rant or greg millen try to make us dumber with every word - but for me, listening to that stuff is the real waste of time. That stuff doesn't actually inform us. Often it does the opposite.

These stats here though? I guarantee you that they will actually inform you about what has actually happened out there on the ice. They aren't a waste of time like 95% of the talking head air filler is.
 
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Ovate

Registered User
Dec 17, 2014
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Toronto
Bad starter, bad coach, bad defensive acumen in the forward lines, bad defense on the defense.

Great young offensive talent at forward. Good young offensive talent at D.

You'd think that a bad starting goalie, defensemen who are bad at defense, forwards who are bad at defense, and a bad coach would lead to worse than 11th best in the league for goals against. But I guess the 20 teams who let in more goals then us are just worse. And the 5 teams who are just 0.1 g/gm better are probably not that great either.
 
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613Leafer

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May 26, 2008
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We have a young team that's a legit contender. As long as we can maintain decent depth, we should have an open window for ~5 or more years.

I think with the emergence of Dermott and breakout season by Rielly, there's less pressure now to find a major upgrade to the blueline.

My main concern is draining the depth by repeatedly letting guys walk for nothing to free agency (Bozak, JVR, Komarov, etc), while simultaneously trading picks for depth rentals (Boyle & Plekanec). Do that for a few years, and you can quickly bleed the organizational depth.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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We have a young team that's a legit contender. As long as we can maintain decent depth, we should have an open window for ~5 or more years.

I think with the emergence of Dermott and breakout season by Rielly, there's less pressure now to find a major upgrade to the blueline.

My main concern is draining the depth by repeatedly letting guys walk for nothing to free agency (Bozak, JVR, Komarov, etc), while simultaneously trading picks for depth rentals (Boyle & Plekanec). Do that for a few years, and you can quickly bleed the organizational depth.

It's a legitimate concern for sure. Our "depth" may be pretty much gone already as it's hard to see how we can possibly spend as much as we did this season any time in the near future.
 

blueberrie

Registered User
Mar 23, 2010
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That sounds nice, but here's the thing - you use hockey stats all the time. They are always part of your hockey story. You just choose to prefer the stats you have always known. That's all. You're not anti stats - you're just anti new stats. So while this romantic anti-data ideal sounds nice, you don't actually believe in it. You know goals, you know assists, you know plus minus, you know GAA, and you use them and have always used them.

I'd go one step further and say everyone uses the new stats too. You think Marner and Kadri are having a great game because they are having lengthy shifts in the other teams zone with lots of shots = corsi. You think Matthews is going to score a couple tonight because he's gotten 3 chances right at the top of the crease so far = xGF.
 
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Skin Tape Session

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Oct 7, 2017
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Five years ago we had a lazy unmotivated num 1 right winger, a num 2 d man playing num 1 min, a shitty coach, shitty gm, shitty everything. We had some prospects and a few young guys like jvr producing.

Now we have a generational center, two num 1 centers playing wing. Kadri is turned his shit around to become one of the best second line centers in hockey. We have a Num 1 D man we drafted and almost ruined by rushing him. We have a true Num 1 goalie we have twenty year vetrens leaving their clubs to be apart of the action, we have one of the best coaches, Hall of famer as president, and somehow Lou left new jersey for us.Not to mention Hunter sniping guys in the second and later rounds.

I firmly believe C.E.R.N. Berenstain bears us into another reality that I can not understand or fathom
 

Beleafer4

Registered User
Apr 4, 2010
4,176
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Love what you did there, Zeke.


One comment though: you're underestimating Gardiner. He's been a beast with everyone but zaitsev (who's tanked the stats of every partner he's been with).
 
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