Salary Cap: The Salary Cap Thread | Nope, Still Nothing ...

[Empoleon8771]

In terms of long term cap structure I see two things happening this summer. We either move our Hagelin for cap, or we trade Rust because he is asking for money. I think Rust is clearly playing himself into the 4 million dollar range this year.

I honestly think we can resign Hornqvist fairly easily. The main worry with him is going to be term, not cost. I have no issues giving him a five year contract as I think he'll age like Kunitz did into his mid 30s.

I don't think Rust is going to get that much money, I think he'll end up closer to $3 million. If I had to guess, maybe $3.25 million a season over 4 years? Connor Brown got only a shade over $2 million with a contract taking up a bunch of RFA years, I think $3 million or so for Rust is a fair guess. I think he'll get a similar contract to Sheary, which is fine for a middle-6 energy forward.

 

[Andy99]

I have been thinking about this: Why not put Sheary on fourth line and help create offense? Creates depth and a Sheary-McKeeg/Rowney-Reaves line could actually be good. And it allows Sprong to be called up once/if we trade Wilson+1st for Haula.

Guentzel-Crosby-Hornqvist
Rust-Malkin-Sprong
Hagelin-Haula/McKeeg-Kessel
Sheary-McKeeg/Rowney-Reaves

I don't think we're getting Haula but I like that lineup better than the current lines...

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think Rust is going to get that much money, I think he'll end up closer to $3 million. If I had to guess, maybe $3.25 million a season over 4 years? Connor Brown got only a shade over $2 million with a contract taking up a bunch of RFA years, I think $3 million or so for Rust is a fair guess. I think he'll get a similar contract to Sheary, which is fine for a middle-6 energy forward.

Brown's contract is so dumb.

Rust is going to PK this year and put up 40+ while being a playoff contributor. He's definitely hitting 4 mil.

 

[Shaffer]

I don't think we're getting Haula but I like that lineup better than the current lines...

Yeah, but woah, that lineup with Haula is dynamic though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Brown's contract is so dumb.

Rust is going to PK this year and put up 40+ while being a playoff contributor. He's definitely hitting 4 mil.

I mean, that's certainly not a definite. You have players just like him taking less money than $4 million AAV. You also can't ignore he's a RFA after this contract, so he doesn't have the rights of other UFAs. He's also not really killing penalties all that much, he's only killing about a minute and a half of penalties per game.

Guys like Faksa, Brown, Hyman, Haula and Pageau (best comparable for Rust) are all making between $2 million and $3.25 million. The only guys like Rust who get $4 million on RFA contracts are guys who have proven more than Rust have, guys like Hagelin and Eakin who had multiple 35-40 point seasons.

 

[Gurglesons]

Plays all situations. 6 and 7 goals in two cup runs. Doesn't need to be tied to Crosby or Malkin to put up points. Rust is going to get money unless we take a short term contract where he'll probably still get money.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Plays all situations. 6 and 7 goals in two cup runs. Doesn't need to be tied to Crosby or Malkin to put up points. Rust is going to get money unless we take a short term contract where he'll probably still get money.

That does not invalidate what I said. Look at comparables for Rust, none of them get $4 million a year. He's just not proven enough yet. Players with only 1 season of 30+ points (assuming he doesn't get hurt this year) don't get $4 million per year.

The guys that get $4 million a year (or close to that) similar to Rust have 2 or 3 more seasons of being proven than Rust has. The guys that make that much money are guys like:

Eakin: 24 points in 48 games in the lockout season, 35 points in 81 games in 13-14, 40 points in 78 games in 14-15 and 35 points in 82 games in 15-16 before his 4 year, $3.85 million AAV contract started
Hagelin: 38 points in 64 games in 11-12, 24 points in 48 games in the lockout season, 33 points in 72 games in 13-14 and 35 points in 82 games in 14-15 before his 4 year, $4 million AAV contract started

Rust just doesn't have the track record that these guys have, just because he hasn't been in the NHL for long enough.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

Rust is on the verge of breaking out this year. I wouldn't be suprised to see him hit 40-50 points, also think he will get 3-3.5 for 3-5 years.

 

[Gurglesons]

That does not invalidate what I said. Look at comparables for Rust, none of them get $4 million a year. He's just not proven enough yet.

The only player that can say he had a comparable post season performance is Pageau.

If Rust hits 50 points this year he is going to get paid.

Also, we set a standard with Sheary. Rust is going to get paid more than him.

I mean if they take him to arbitration I could see your argument, but this strikes me a lot like the Schultz contract argument.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The only player that can say he had a comparable post season performance is Pageau.

That's not the only thing that determines player value. Players of Rust's resume just don't get $4 million AAV. It doesn't happen. Players who get $4 million AAV have 3 or 4 years of doing what Rust is expected to do this year.

If Rust hits 50 points this year he is going to get paid.

Why is he going to hit 50 points this year all of a sudden?

Also, we set a standard with Sheary. Rust is going to get paid more than him.

Sheary seems like an excellent comparison for Rust to use for his next contract. That's the standard, and Rust isn't better than Sheary to the point where he'd make a lot more money.

I can list like a ton of similar players with similar resumes to Rust that got $2-$3 million a year for a medium term deal. How many similar players to Rust can you list that got $4 million a year as a RFA with only 2 years of producing at a high level? I can't find anyone.

Rust is on the verge of breaking out this year. I wouldn't be suprised to see him hit 40-50 points, also think he will get 3-3.5 for 3-5 years.

I don't think he'll get that many points, but I think your guess for cap is a fair one. I don't think he gets higher than say $3.25 million on a 4 year deal. He just doesn't have the resume for it. A deal like what Pageau got is a perfect comparable for Rust.

 

[Gurglesons]

Rust is more versatile than Sheary and can use that in contract talks.

He has 8 points in 6 games. If he just plays his pace from the last two years he easily hits 38 pts. His pace from last year and he is at 44.

Whatever. Schultz was going to get around 4 according to most here. I don't see Rust taking a penny under 3.5 on a short term deal and likely getting exactly what Hags got 4x4 with a modified NTC.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Yeah, we can fit in both PH and Hags next year, including bumping Rust to about 3, but that only leaves about 2M for that 3C speo

I don't have an issue with Hornqvist on the 3rd line at all, that's probably where I'd ideally have him to be honest. Sheary and Hornqvist as a 3rd line wing duo is phenomenal. The issue is what impact having him has on the top-6. That basically locks Kessel with Malkin, which locks Sprong with Crosby (assuming Sprong is up by then and playing RW). That lineup could work, without a doubt. You just don't have many options if that lineup doesn't work, unless you're playing guys who don't mesh well together (Kessel and Crosby or Malkin and Hornqvist) or you move someone like Sprong to LW. Watching Sprong in WBS makes me really not want to move him to LW, he scores those 2013 Kessel goals from RW way too often.

We can fit in both PH and Hags next year, including bumping Rust to about 3m, but that only leaves about 2.25M for that 3C spot (assuming McKegg or someone at 4C for 1m). As long as the coaching staff is willing to slide up PH with Sid when needed (and they certainly seem to be), then we have lots of options on the RW:

Sid Sprong
Sid Sheary
Sid PH
Sid Rust

Geno Kessel
Geno Sprong
Geno Rust

3C Kessel
3C Sprong
3C PH

 

[Empoleon8771]

Rust is more versatile than Sheary and can use that in contract talks.

He has 8 points in 6 games. If he plays his pace from the last two years he easily hits 38 pts.

Whatever. Schultz was going to get around 4 according to most here. I don't see Rust taking a penny under 3.5 on a short term deal and likely getting exactly what Hags got 4x4 with a modified NTC.

I'm going to ask again. Who has a similar resume to Rust has gotten that kind of contract? Just answer that question. Because Pageau is almost as close of a comparable for Rust as you can get and he makes $3.1 million a year.

The Hagelin comparison doesn't work because Hagelin had been doing for 4 years what Rust did last year and is projected to do this year. Schultz had some comparables to hit $5.5 million. Rutherford paid him that much because he was likely going to get close to that on a shorter deal in arbitration. Rust doesn't have a comparable to be paid what Hagelin makes. He just doesn't have the track record.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'm going to ask again. Who has a similar resume to Rust has gotten that kind of contract? Just answer that question. Because Pageau is almost as close of a comparable for Rust as you can get and he makes $3.1 million a year.

I would say his comparable is Bickell. Hard to find a comparable given the playoff success we've had since he joined the team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would say his comparable is Bickell. Hard to find a comparable given the playoff success we've had since he joined the team.

Bickell had 3 years of performing at that level, with putting up 84 points in 197 games from 2010-2013. He also got paid based on an obscene cup run where he had 17 points in 23 playoff games. That comparison doesn't work at all.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I also think Rust's "clutchness" in the playoffs is getting a bit overplayed, in terms of it resulting in some massive bump in his salary.

Yes, he's scored some big goals. But at the end of the day, he's still produced less than 10 points each playoff run. It's not like he's been putting up 15+ point playoff runs each time. He's not Claude Lemieux/Justin Williams in terms of producing at a whole other level once the playoffs being or whatever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here's an actual comparison for Rust, Pageau:

Rookie season (14-15): 10 goals and 19 points in 50 games, 0 points in 6 playoff games
Sophomore season: 19 goals and 43 points in 82 games
Junior year: 12 goals and 33 points in 82 games, 8 goals and 10 points in 19 playoff games

He signed a 3 year, $3.1 million AAV contract this summer. He kills penalties, became famous for scoring big goals in the playoffs and he had about 2 years of putting up serious point totals. That contract ate up 1 UFA year (2019-2020), because the 2018-2019 contract year will be his 7th pro season. Now let's look at Rust:

Rookie season (15-16): 4 goals and 11 points in 41 games, 6 goals and 9 points in 23 playoff games
Sophomore season: 15 goals and 28 points in 57 games, 7 goals and 9 points in 23 playoff games
Junior season (projected): 20 goals and 40 points in 82 games

Him getting a 3 year contract would be eating up 2 UFA years, because he'll be 27 by July 1st, 2019. His production line looks very similar to what Pageau did, both in the regular season and playoffs. Both were known as clutch goal scorers and both PKed. In Pageau's UFA year, he's making $3.4 million, and in his RFA years, he's making an average of $2.95 million ($2.6 million in year 1, $3.3 million in year 2). Let's say he makes $3 million in his UFA year and $3.5 million in his 2 UFA years, that's a 3 year, $3.33 million AAV contract. I don't see anything wrong with saying that would be a fair guess for his new contract.

 

[Riptide]

Why can't we do both? Bring in Bjugstad, re-sign Horny to 5.5MM and move Hagelin.

I don't see why Florida moves Bjugstad, but if they would, I think the Pens can make it work with the cap.

Next year? And the year afterwards? They probably could make that work. Would be tight, but probably manageable.

But year 3 when Guentzel needs his raise... it would make things basically impossible without shipping out salary. And that's even assuming we could afford the raises to guys like Rust, Wilson, etc. Then there's the fact that Murray needs a new deal 3 years from now. So unless the plan is to try and move people in 2 years... I do not think that we should be looking to re-sign Hornqvist AND bring in a high priced #3C. We're going to have enough problems over the next couple of years... there's no point in making our problems worse.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Next year? And the year afterwards? They probably could make that work. Would be tight, but probably manageable.

But year 3 when Guentzel needs his raise... it would make things basically impossible without shipping out salary. And that's even assuming we could afford the raises to guys like Rust, Wilson, etc. Then there's the fact that Murray needs a new deal 3 years from now. So unless the plan is to try and move people in 2 years... I do not think that we should be looking to re-sign Hornqvist AND bring in a high priced #3C. We're going to have enough problems over the next couple of years... there's no point in making our problems worse.

I think as long as JR doesn't give out ridiculous contracts, he'll have no real issue unloading them at a future date if/when cap space becomes an issue. For instance, bringing on Bjugstad's $4 million wouldn't pose an issue unless he completely craps the bed. If JR has to move him in 3 years time, he probably could. Ditto for most of the guys currently locked up, and ditto for a guy like Hornqvist even if he's costing around $5.5 million per year.

 

[Riptide]

Oh and if you haven't heard me say this 49301934021 times, I would immediately re-sign Hornqvist. I think the energy he brings and how he gets those ugly goals is a difference maker on this team.

And the long term cap implications? And the unwillingness to play him with Crosby? Is spending 5.5m there over 5-6 years really the smart play?

 

[vodeni]

I know, that's a problem. That's definitely something that has to be considered, but that's not the only thing that needs to be considered. Like I said, I really don't think it's a black and white question, I don't think there's really a wrong answer here. Keeping either one has their pros and cons.

I personally think Guentzel can replace a lot of what Hornqvist did on the PP, but he won't be able to replace all of it. That's also not really an appropriate use of his talent either IMO, he's more suited for a Crosby type of PP role, not a Hornqvist type of PP role.

I personally think you are wrong. How many times we have to discuss this. No one can replace Horny. Guentzel is a totaly different player, not knock on Jake, but there are no Hornquists in NHL (at least not too many). Horny changed the identity of this hockey club, it is not by accident that he scores those goals against Capitals and Predators, with Geno, Sid and some others that have tendency at this stage of their career of slowing down and not showing for every game, Horny's presence and energy is even more important.

 

[Gurglesons]

And the long term cap implications? And the unwillingness to play him with Crosby? Is spending 5.5m there over 5-6 years really the smart play?

Is letting a player of Hornqvist's caliber and consistency go because of preconceived chemistry issues worth it?

Even if he is simply a power play weapon he is worth 4-5 million.

What winger outside of Jake and Kessel would you rather have here?

Sheary, Rust, Hags, etc are the players you let walk. Hornqvist is Kunitz when Kunitz got here in 2009 today.

 

[Peat]

Much as I like the different element Hornqvist brings to the roster, I am still not a big fan of bringing him back unless he's seen as a serious option for Sid again. But if he is, he's kinda must have. Tricky one.

 

[Riptide]

From purely looking at the team on paper, letting Hornqvist go and sliding Hagelin into the top-9 makes the most sense. You have a lot more roster flexibility, since Hagelin fits pretty well with any line, plus Hagelin would be a much shorter (and cheaper) commitment.

Hagelin could also likely be re-signed for less then what he's currently making. Sure maybe someone pays him 4m on his next deal... but even with his speed, how many teams are going to be lining up to pay 4m to someone who's likely only a 15g/35pt scorer? And then, would he really want to go there? Like Schultz, Hagelin experienced going to a new team where nothing panned out.

I'm not saying he's someone I'd automatically re-sign, but he does offer us more flexibility if that's a route we want to explore in the future.

 

[PensandCaps]

Everyone was wrong about the Schultz contract. People should just stop guessing what a player is gonna get.