TSN: The problems run deep in Ottawa

jbeck5

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Jan 26, 2009
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Because player B will be deployed differently than Player A, especially at home but even on the road. Not all minutes are equal or used for the same purpose.

Do you feel the same way with points per game as you do with points per 60mins?

Both are output divided by input.

What's more impressive?

A guy who has 20 points in 20 games playing 20 minutes a night or a guy with 20 points in 40 games playing 10 minutes a night? Hint, they both have 20 points over 400 minutes so they should be equally impressive but the other has half the points per game as the other one. Many would say points per 60 is more accurate of how much they accomplish while they're on the ice compared to the points per game.

One might argue that the guy playing 20 mins a night plays against harder competition but then they might be countered by the fact they also probably have better linemates to cancel it out.
 
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Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
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We do need to talk about Pageau. What's up with him? I wasn't actually opposed to having Hoff on his line assuming he could provide some offense, but that didn't work at all. I just don't see the explosiveness in him anymore, that ability he had to go after the puck holder, substitute himself with him and run away with the puck. IMO there's probably some injury nobody's talking about.

New contract effect. Seems to happen with a lot of guys. They play just a bit harder in the last year of a contract looking for a new deal, but once they get it, there's a letdown the next season.

Pageau definitely seems less feisty this season.
 

Brannstorm

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Feb 15, 2016
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Bigger picture.

All any coach or team ever says is we need to look at today, this year, this season, this series etc. and play our game, be ourselves.

So, how do we do that? That is the question we need to answer.

I don't know.

But I feel like there is so much pent up stuff and unsaid resentment that plagues this organisation.

I mean every second year we lose and the other year we make it all about being the pesky underdog and taking down the big dog.

It doesn't help that it is a new coach every year but that speaks to the pattern of mistrust and placing blame.

If the top is unaccountable, then why shouldn't the bottom be?
 
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JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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Why is using stats to back up your point a bad thing? If anything, more people should use stats to show what they mean.
I think the comm n compaint with Yost is that he picks the stats that support his view and chooses to ignore those that don'

Brassard and Ryan are both ahead of last year's pace. That isn't mentioned.

The team is on pace for 227. Last year they scored 212. I don' know what the rate of increased scoring is but it is higher. Our scoring is up 7% from last year and our leading scorer, ek, is off his usual numbers.

So imo the entire scoring premise of yost's article is problematic. The team is well ahead of last year's pace.

but I'm sure you can isolate a libe or a D Corp or a bottom 6 on just about any team and point out that group is down from last year
 

Langdon Alger

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Apr 19, 2006
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But that's exactly the problem. Management singled out and signed Thompson to a multi-year deal, when the role he plays is becoming redundant in today's NHL. He doesn't score and he doesn't drive possession, but for some reason management wanted him for multiple years?

Ditto for Dumont, especially at the expense of Didomenico, who actually did drive play as a 4th liner.

You can argue he shouldn’t have been given more than one year, you can argue he’s overpaid, but what do you want from a 4th line centre? They are supposed to kill penalties and win faceoffs. If they can chip in with the odd goal, great, but they aren’t there to provide a ton of offence. If you have a productive top 9 you don’t worry too much if your 4th line isn’t scoring.
 

50 in 07

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Feb 10, 2016
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I think the comm n compaint with Yost is that he picks the stats that support his view and chooses to ignore those that don'

Brassard and Ryan are both ahead of last year's pace. That isn't mentioned.

The team is on pace for 227. Last year they scored 212. I don' know what the rate of increased scoring is but it is higher. Our scoring is up 7% from last year and our leading scorer, ek, is off his usual numbers.

So imo the entire scoring premise of yost's article is problematic. The team is well ahead of last year's pace.

but I'm sure you can isolate a libe or a D Corp or a bottom 6 on just about any team and point out that group is down from last year
If you read the article he isn't saying Ottawa as a whole is worse offensively. He's saying that our bottom 6 relative to the rest of the league is trash offensively, which is a valid point. It's got nothing to do with last year vs. this year, and it has nothing to do with the top 6 forwards or with Karlsson. It's comparing this year's bottom 6 vs the rest of the league's bottom 6, and by that metric we're literally dead last.

A legit concern, and hardly one which you can discount by saying "cherry picked stats" given that all he did was add up every team's bottom 6 scoring and adjust for ice time.
 
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JD1

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If you read the article he isn't saying Ottawa as a whole is worse offensively. He's saying that our bottom 6 relative to the rest of the league is trash offensively, which is a valid point. It's got nothing to do with last year vs. this year, and it has nothing to do with the top 6 forwards or with Karlsson. It's comparing this year's bottom 6 vs the rest of the league's bottom 6, and by that metric we're literally dead last.

A legit concern, and hardly one which you can discount by saying "cherry picked stats" given that all he did was add up every team's bottom 6 scoring and adjust for ice time.

I read the article.

the point that I made was that you can go around the league and find a line or a top 4 or a bottom pair that is bad at something with just about every team.

is it bad? yes. but the team as a whole is scoring more and he left that out. he also only identified 2 guys ahead of pace up front and that's false.

Yost writes anti ottawa articles. he's been doing it for a few years.
 

50 in 07

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Feb 10, 2016
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I read the article.

the point that I made was that you can go around the league and find a line or a top 4 or a bottom pair that is bad at something with just about every team.

is it bad? yes. but the team as a whole is scoring more and he left that out. he also only identified 2 guys ahead of pace up front and that's false.

Yost writes anti ottawa articles. he's been doing it for a few years.
Okay well maybe you didn't read it that well. Here's the exact quote regarding guys pacing from last year.
Save the brilliance from Mark Stone at the top of the lineup and a surprising offensive outburst from speedster Ryan Dzingel, almost every Ottawa forward has taken a step backward – in some cases, considerably so.
So that clearly implies that there are other guys besides Stone and Dzingel that have improved offensively from last year.

Second, if you're going to disregard this article because Yost wrote it and he "writes anti-ottawa articles" then that's just extremely narrow minded. Look at the numbers he provides they don't lie. Our bottom 6 is worst in the entire league, at generating points. It's not like he found some random statistic that nobody's heard of before - he's talking about putting the puck in the net. The entire team being overall better offensively doesn't change the fact that when the top guys are off the ice, we suck. And the top guys can only play so much per game.
 
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JD1

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almost every ottawa forward

bottom 6 behind their pace

stone Dzingel Brassard ryan ahead of pace. Hoffman pacing at 57.

I wouldn't include Dumont because he hasn't. played much. he's
so I'd say that's 4 better 5 worse 1 the same.

I don't know I guess I have a different opinion than you on the meaning of "almost evey"

that said. ...had he simply said our bottom 6 sucks I'd have no issue with the article.

it's the almost every which to me shows Yost's colours.
 

L'Aveuglette

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almost every ottawa forward

bottom 6 behind their pace

stone Dzingel Brassard ryan ahead of pace. Hoffman pacing at 57.

I wouldn't include Dumont because he hasn't. played much. he's
so I'd say that's 4 better 5 worse 1 the same.

I don't know I guess I have a different opinion than you on the meaning of "almost evey"

that said. ...had he simply said our bottom 6 sucks I'd have no issue with the article.

it's the almost every which to me shows Yost's colours.

You're also disregarding that Brassard and Ryan being ahead of last year's pace doesn't mean much when they both had atrocious seasons in 16-17. So yeah, not much of an argument to counter Yost's here. Ryan has 5 goals so far for christ's sake.

Our top-6 isn't very good.
 

derriko

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Mar 7, 2009
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People that think bringing back Wingels and Stalberg would solve the problem are crazy.

They were both low 20 point players.

This is a systematic issue in Ottawa. There are a lot of guys that should be put on the market like Smith, Burrows, Pyatt, Dumont, and even Pageau. Pageau I would keep unless it was an overpayment though.

In the meanwhile, you could always spread out the offense. After Sweden I wasn’t paying too much attention. Has Smith-Pageau-Stone been tried much this year?

Hoffman-Duchene can’t be broken up because outside of Stone, they are the only ones that have been good recently.
 

Knave

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Mar 6, 2007
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Do you feel the same way with points per game as you do with points per 60mins?

Both are output divided by input.

What's more impressive?

A guy who has 20 points in 20 games playing 20 minutes a night or a guy with 20 points in 40 games playing 10 minutes a night? Hint, they both have 20 points over 400 minutes so they should be equally impressive but the other has half the points per game as the other one. Many would say points per 60 is more accurate of how much they accomplish while they're on the ice compared to the points per game.

One might argue that the guy playing 20 mins a night plays against harder competition but then they might be countered by the fact they also probably have better linemates to cancel it out.

No.

Coaches match wherever they can regardless of whether it's a home game or a road game. The guy playing 10 minutes a night is playing against easier opposition. His per 60 is useless because it's not going to scale or be relevant. You're better off going points per game and comparing to other players in his line-up position (4th line, 3rd line or even better - checking line, energy line players, etc...).

They're not equally impressive. The guy playing 20 minutes a night is doing it against tougher competition. Do people not see the changes on the fly as soon as the zone is cleared because the coach doesn't like the unfavorable matchup? They're not going to make that change for the 10min per night guy and he will receive 'easier' minutes which provides better opportunities to score.

So if you look at those two players in your example and go "wow equally impressive" and then scale him up to ~15 minutes or ~20 minutes... his points per 60 is going to drop. What do you think that implies? They're not equal achievements. They are not equal players.

And it gets much more complex than this... which is why points per 60 or anything per 60 is worthless. You could only use these numbers to compare with players in a similar situation and at that point... why not use PPG?

If anything all this amateur analysis by Yost proves is that Boucher overplays his 3rd and 4th line and gives them too many minutes... and not this 'not carrying their weight relative to the bottom 6 of other teams' narrative.

If you want a clear example of this: Tom Pyatt plays roughly the same amount as Kevin Fiala (2nd line Nashville). Tom Pyatt is not deciding to be on the ice that often. The coaching staff is. Tom Pyatt has played with some of our skilled players. He's played in the grinding role. He's not scoring like Kevin Fiala with talent, he's not scoring like him without talent.
 
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Upgrayedd

Earn'em and Burn'em
Oct 14, 2010
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Bottom 6 went from being a point of strength playing strong defensive hockey and chipping once and awhile to an absolute black hole for scoring and getting caved in most nights defensively, add that to EK and Andy no showing this year and finally the top 4/2 dman and top 6 forward being removed from the squad and never even being attempted to be replaced and finally add in an owner who nickel and dimes things which has likely put us in a bad spot contract wise going forward. All of this sets the scene for the perfect storm we are witnessing.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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Not adequaltdy preparing for MacArthur's retirement is also one of Dorion's many mistakes.


So Dorion would have had to have a crystal ball, in order to know when MacAuthur was going to suffer an injury, that would force him into retirement, before the endof his current contract.
I sure hope he uses that crystal ball to know when all other future major injuries are going to happen.
 

Langdon Alger

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Apr 19, 2006
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People that think bringing back Wingels and Stalberg would solve the problem are crazy.

They were both low 20 point players.

This is a systematic issue in Ottawa. There are a lot of guys that should be put on the market like Smith, Burrows, Pyatt, Dumont, and even Pageau. Pageau I would keep unless it was an overpayment though.

In the meanwhile, you could always spread out the offense. After Sweden I wasn’t paying too much attention. Has Smith-Pageau-Stone been tried much this year?

Hoffman-Duchene can’t be broken up because outside of Stone, they are the only ones that have been good recently.

They wouldn’t solve the problem, they’re just better than Burrows and Dumont. It’s not like we would be a drastically better team with them, but our 4th line would be less shitty if nothing else.
 

BatherSeason

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Losing Wideman also hurt

Wideman was very sheltered with GB, not sure it hurts as much as it should or as much as some are stating. If Wideman was healthy, he would be the d-man scratched most nights. Remember, Boucher played him as a forward on the 4th line when he got hurt. He had no defined rule within this team and that's on Boucher.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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So Dorion would have had to have a crystal ball, in order to know when MacAuthur was going to suffer an injury, that would force him into retirement, before the endof his current contract.
I sure hope he uses that crystal ball to know when all other future major injuries are going to happen.

Huh? People are talking about not replacing him this offseason, or signing some inexpensive backup plans last offseason (there were plenty of guys looking for a 1 year deal at the time, like Gagner, Eaves, Parenteau or Vanek two yeaers ago or this offseason, Cammalleri, Kunitz, or Vrbata. We knew he was a big risk last season having missed so much time, and we knew going into this season that he had a neck injury and opted not to get the required surgery, so clearly he was highly likely to fail the medical.

Now, you can argue that they couldn't afford him even if he was healthy, so we weren't actually anticipating him in the lineup in the first place, so there wasn't a mentality that he needed to be replaced, but even if that's the case, the team certainly wasn't open about it, instead they seemed to pretend that this was a surprise.
 

Indrew

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Feb 6, 2007
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Yost is bang on. How would you react to the article if was posted by 'anonymous'?

Our goaltending has declined sharply. No team is going to make the playoffs with an 89.3 save percentage.

Our bottom six is horrific. The only salvageable piece is Pageau. I feel bad that he is stapled to Pyatt and Smith because those two are possession black holes.

Here is an idea for a team that doesn't want to spend to the cap. Fill your bottom six with young players that can skate and handle the puck on cheap contracts. Have Guy Boucher and the staff coach them to put their stick in the right place or whatever. Finding guys like Pyatt out of the European leagues is okay too, I guess. If they exceed expectations, sign them to another one year deal so you don't get stuck with them. Don't shave a couple hundred thousands off their salary by giving them an extra year. We have kids like Chlapik, Paul and White who can fill these roles for cheap that only make the lineup when we have injuries. This is how you save money!

The end.
 
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BatherSeason

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So Dorion would have had to have a crystal ball, in order to know when MacAuthur was going to suffer an injury, that would force him into retirement, before the endof his current contract.
I sure hope he uses that crystal ball to know when all other future major injuries are going to happen.

Nope, not a crystal ball, just a little foresight.
You can't just assume that a player who has a history of concussion problems and missed close to 2 full seasons is going to be a permanent member of your top 6 until the end of his contract with absolutely no injury setbacks. The team would have been better served using the money they spent on Thompson/Oduya, what, close to 3.5 mill, to sign a forward who can play anywhere in the lineup. Instead, we get more "hard hockey players" that look as soft as butter.
 

Micklebot

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Wideman was very sheltered with GB, not sure it hurts as much as it should or as much as some are stating. If Wideman was healthy, he would be the d-man scratched most nights. Remember, Boucher played him as a forward on the 4th line when he got hurt. He had no defined rule within this team and that's on Boucher.

He missed 1 game before getting injured. Not sure he'd be the healthy scratch most nights as you suggest, particularly with Boro out all that time.

It's also telling that even when Boucher decided to go with 6 other Dmen, he'd rather keep Wideman in the lineup as a forward than scratch him. If he hadn't gotten injured, I suspect Dumont is still a mbr of the lightning. On the flip side, how many times has Claesson or Harpur been the healthy scratch?

As for what he brought, a lot was what Boucher tried to get Chabot to do, but now that Chabot is playing the left side on a more consistant basis, I think Wideman's spot would have been more secure as our bottom pair puck mover.

I was a proponent of moving Wideman at the deadline anyways, so I'm not too torn up about his absence.
 

BatherSeason

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He missed 1 game before getting injured. Not sure he'd be the healthy scratch most nights as you suggest, particularly with Boro out all that time.

It's also telling that even when Boucher decided to go with 6 other Dmen, he'd rather keep Wideman in the lineup as a forward than scratch him. If he hadn't gotten injured, I suspect Dumont is still a mbr of the lightning. On the flip side, how many times has Claesson or Harpur been the healthy scratch?

Chris Wideman's averaged 12 minutes of ice time in the month of November. In his last 5 games dressed as a d-man, he had games with 6:56, 7:40 and 9:44 of time on ice. His icetime was trending downwards quickly prior to the injury, not sure these numbers really show a guy who the coaching staff had a lot of faith in. Therefore, the argument that this team really misses him doesn't make much sense.
 

BatherSeason

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Jun 16, 2009
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almost every ottawa forward

bottom 6 behind their pace

stone Dzingel Brassard ryan ahead of pace. Hoffman pacing at 57.

I wouldn't include Dumont because he hasn't. played much. he's
so I'd say that's 4 better 5 worse 1 the same.

I don't know I guess I have a different opinion than you on the meaning of "almost evey"

that said. ...had he simply said our bottom 6 sucks I'd have no issue with the article.

it's the almost every which to me shows Yost's colours.

Our team has been terrible. Yost is pointing out that the main reasons are poor goaltending and a garbage bottom 6, he is also providing stats to back up his argument. No matter what you think of him, he is not wrong. Heck, even if Lee Versage or Steve Warne wrote this article I would agree with them.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
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Chris Wideman's averaged 12 minutes of ice time in the month of November. In his last 5 games dressed as a d-man, he had games with 6:56, 7:40 and 9:44 of time on ice. His icetime was trending downwards quickly prior to the injury, not sure these numbers really show a guy who the coaching staff had a lot of faith in. Therefore, the argument that this team really misses him doesn't make much sense.

And yet he wasn't coming out of the lineup. Coaching staff certainly wanted to shelter him, no argument there, but they also saw merit to what he brought. When we had a lead, he typically wasn`t involved in protecting it. When we needed offense though, he typically was. I suspect that during an prolonged offensive drought, he probably gets more icetime.

He rounded out the bottom pair nicely. We miss what he did for the bottom pair imo. When Chabot was on the bottom pair, he wasn't needed there, but now that Chabot has rightfully moved up, it sure would be nice to have the 10 mins Wideman could provide in games where we struggle to score.
 

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