It's still too early, but 3 main issues I see:
1. The power play hasn't been good enough (duh).
2. Goalies haven't been good enough (league average 5 on 5 SV%).
3. Faceoffs haven't been good enough (league average 5 on 5 FO%).
I don't think #3 will get better this year with Barzal and some combination of Nelson or Beau taking a half of our draws. I think we can overcome this if it stays at league average, though.
For #2, getting rocked in opening night certainly skews this with the small sample size, but the eye test shows both goalies have been pretty sub par. I think this will get better as well.
For #1, this is definitely a scary piece. It's not like we are getting unlucky. Sure, we aren't getting lucky either, but luck won't work over an 82 game season. It's scary that so many elements of it look like garbage. The entry is terrible. The movement when we are in the zone is non-existent. The personnel set up is all in the wrong spots. And the execution of any type of plan is trash. This absolutely has to get fixed for the team to overcome some of its other weaknesses. We could be 3-1 if we could score a damn PP goal.
Again, all small sample sizes, but the other stats are all positive and reminiscent of the 2014-15 team that looked good all year and were mostly dominating every game in terms of possession. We are top 10 in SAT%, USAT%, ZS%. We are outshooting and outchancing (and this includes getting destroyed in game 1). And this is with a pretty tough schedule -- I'm not seeing this posted much. 3 games in less than 4 nights to start the season, including STL and CBJ, and then a West Coast trip. Even the West Coast trip is tough on us this year going from Anaheim and then up to SJ and then back to LAK back to back. Then back to the east coast to play the Rangers at MSG. Not making an excuse here, all teams have tough patches and they need to overcome them and pick up points -- but I'm just factoring it into the initial analysis.
Lastly, outside of the goalies, three players are playing far below their expectations: Tavares, Leddy, and de Haan.
Tavares needs to be a lot better, period. He was terrible in Anaheim and has barely generated chances in most of the games he's played. He's been bad.
Leddy just doesn't seem like a difference maker on offense and frankly, I don't think he ever will be. He desperately needs a #1 defenseman ahead of him on the roster -- someone to take the attention and pressure off of him on the offensive side. He's more of a sneak attack type of player rather than a control the game and eat minutes type of player. And he is definitely not a PPQB. With the current personnel, the team needs to run the power play through a playmaker on the half wall and put someone who can shoot on the point. Leddy can't shoot and he can't create while standing still. I think Pulock is the shot answer but not the QB answer, and currently a liability mostly everywhere else. I'd like to see Tavares or Barzal set up on the half wall to QB (on their correct side god forbid), and look for options. Boychuk can rip it with Lee in front. Eberle can roam and make space, including below the goal line, as he's one of the only one's on our team that has the vision and hands to do it. And they really need to think about setting up Beau in the faceoff circles to blast one timers on seam passes (as opposed to the Boychuk screen shots). This gives us numerous options, and we never see the Beau play from this team. So many goals are created by that shot going in on its own or the side-to-side havoc it creates for the defense and goalie even if it is saved or blocked. Lee can clean up in front and Tavares can live on the opposite wall to bang in rebounds kicked out further.
de Haan just looks like a #7 defensman right now. Not just terrible for him and what we saw last year., but just terrible in general. If I put a tinfoil hat on, it almost looks like he threw the game against CBJ. He was downright awful and hasn't gotten much better since. He needs to pick his game up, quickly.
Way too early to draw too many conclusions, but I think this team is all what we thought it was: a middle of the pack playoff bubble team. The biggest issue facing this team is that after decades of losing and being clouded with doubt and ineptitude, any initial turbulence means doom for this team. Pittsburgh can let up a touchdown and a field goal in game 1 and be fine -- they have an above average team and know how to win. NYI can lose 4 of 5 to start the season and be toast before they are done trick-or-treating.