Speculation: The Official Tank Thread

[Bench]

Fair enough as that is true that was said, but i'm not sure that really matters in the big scope of things. if winnipeg wins a playoff round next season but and the Wings don't but in 2 years after that the Wings are championship contenders and the jets are back out of the playoffs does it matter?

I mean, the Dallas Stars have won a playoff round more recently than all but 7 teams in the NHL. HAsn't done them much good as they are now competing for a top 5 pick. So who cares?

This is some shifty stuff. Winning doesn't matter, but sometimes it does, except when it doesn't.

"Who cares?" Let's answer that. Well, they were a legitimate threat to win the Cup last year on the back of the most explosive offense in the league. And while their blueline and goaltending remain oh so uninspired, they still boast an extremely talented core of forwards.

Nobody is going to be surprised if the Stars return to being a threat in the Western Conference in a season or two. Benn and Seguin are too good. The surprise from that roster is that they are currently so far out of the playoffs.

Who cares that they won a playoffs? Well, I guess Stars fans did. But they got there on a backbone of young talent. They aren't done yet. Can we say the same about the Wings last playoff victory?

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's not. The argument is that usually you can spot the rising teams a mile away. His argument was "who knows" and that anything can happen between now and then, with people being wrong more often than they are right.

And while outliers exist, my argument remains the majority of the time it's been quite clear which teams are poised to take the next step. I don't think it's all that random or unpredictable at all. The momentum of a winning franchise isn't 0 to 60 all at once, it's a gradual acclimation of moves you see gaining steam each year.

I think it's more unpredictable than you say. Just a glance at the lower half of the league shows Calgary/Colorado/Carolina/Florida/Tampa/Buffalo... teams that most have seen "from a mile away" as only improving. Then among top teams you have some that were predicted to decline or simply struggle, such as SJ/NYR/Minny/CBJ.

It's not always that difficult to see that a team is starting to put together pieces to climb up the standings. But what is more difficult to know is who will sustain it. Who will stay in the playoffs, who will start to go on playoff runs. This is where people fall into the trap of thinking all young players improve along a linear path and young teams have nowhere to go but up. And that's also where I think the importance of keeping the culture of the 25 year playoff streak comes into play. You don't want this team to suddenly start thinking missing the playoffs every now and then is okay.

 

[SoupNazi]

Resume here.