The Official Tank Thread III

[Jaromir Blogger]

I feel like this board should be split into two separate ones: one for people who accept the reality of the state of the Red Wings organization and one for those who are in complete denial of it.

 

[Invictus12]

Do you know that scene in The 40 Year Old Virgin where he's at the speed dating thing and he just keeps asking that first lady questions? How she responds, that's how I feel right now.

What in the actual... is going on?

YOU are the one who brought up trades as a real possibility. I asked you to point out which trades Holland has made to make anyone believe that he's capable of it.

You respond with "welcome to the real world buddy... he's not playing EA sports"?

I mean, really?

I didn't make it past that part.

Here's all you need to know: we need elite players and Holland hasn't been doing a very good job at getting them.

He doesn't trade and we probably don't even have the pieces to make a necessary trade, top FA aren't coming here (they like to go to contenders or teams they see as going in that direction), and Holland hasn't drafted an elite player in nearly 20 years now.

So yeah, I'm a little concerned about the direction of the organization.

I said the option is open, I never said it was simple. Ironically, that's something a girl would often try and project to the virgin or inexperienced guy but he won't get it because he's too busy focusing on trying to get laid.

Just because you have the option to trade doesn't mean you should get trigger happy. I think at least on this principle, you'll agree. Again, difference between EA and real life. Just because most here agreed that Vanek is worth a late first doesn't automatically mean you get it. Demand and supply buddy. One or both were missing from the equation. With Smith, it might have been the very opposite. When either happens, one party will be, at the very least, questioning whether the move makes sense at all. That's just basic economics.

Nielsen and Green have proven to be pretty good players. They're not Stamkos, sure but just as drafting early, those players come as seldom in the free agency as they do in the draft. Difference being, your eggs are not all in one basket.

 

[Invictus12]

I feel like this board should be split into two separate ones: one for people who accept the reality of the state of the Red Wings organization and one for those who are in complete denial of it.

You don't even know what the actual argument is; and it's hard to take your assessment of things even remotely serious. Everyone recognizes that the team needs major improvement. The debate is about how the team should move forward.

 

[Red Stanley]

I feel like this board should be split into two separate ones: one for people who accept the reality of the state of the Red Wings organization and one for those who are in complete denial of it.

What is the state of the Red Wings organization?

 

[Pavels Dog]

He doesn't trade and we probably don't even have the pieces to make a necessary trade, top FA aren't coming here (they like to go to contenders or teams they see as going in that direction), and Holland hasn't drafted an elite player in nearly 20 years now.

Chicago and Pittsburgh haven't drafted an elite player in 10 years or more. Note: it's unbelievably difficult to draft elite players at all, and even more so when you're drafting in the 20-30 range and trying to compete for cups at the same time. The fact you look at it as this terrible thing that we didn't draft elite players for the last 20 years shows how off your priorities and expectations are. That's 20 years of playoffs, 4 cups, for the most part very successful seasons. I calculated the exact number of teams that have had a 20+ year run of contending (or even just playoffs) and then put together a new, elite core without some bad years first; the number was zero.
Some "mediocre" years on the last legs of an elite core comes with the territory, that's something you have to live with. Due to competent management we stretched the playoff streak longer than most teams are able to, but there was no way we were ever getting a top 5 pick while Datsyuk and Zetterberg were on the team so it made zero sense to kickstart a rebuild sooner. Even just now, Zetterberg was a bit too good for us to get a top 5 pick despite 90% of the rest of the team playing the worst hockey in their careers. But still, a top 10 pick is a huge increase in the odds of finding a good player compared to drafting #20. And we are trending down, so top 5 isn't out of the question next year. All you need is some patience. You can't expect a new house to be ready the day after the old one collapses. At least Holland & Co. have already started to land us some building blocks, even if the foundation is still missing.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I said the option is open, I never said it was simple. Ironically, that's something a girl would often try and project to the virgin or inexperienced guy but he won't get it because he's too busy focusing on trying to get laid.

Just because you have the option to trade doesn't mean you should get trigger happy. I think at least on this principle, you'll agree. Again, difference between EA and real life. Just because most here agreed that Vanek is worth a late first doesn't automatically mean you get it. Demand and supply buddy. One or both were missing from the equation. With Smith, it might have been the very opposite. When either happens, one party will be, at the very least, questioning whether the move makes sense at all. That's just basic economics.

Nielsen and Green have proven to be pretty good players. They're not Stamkos, sure but just as drafting early, those players come as seldom in the free agency as they do in the draft. Difference being, your eggs are not all in one basket.

Nobody is saying trading is simple. But to absolve Holland of responsibility to use trades to help the team the last however many years because "well it's hard" is strange.

And nobody has said to put the eggs in one basket. However the most tried and true method for acquiring elite players has been in the draft, hence why people want Holland to do a hard rebuild and get us the next franchise player. Right now it is very unlikely we have one. Upon acquiring said elite talent, using trades to supplement that talent and acquiring necessary pieces in free agency would be a solid way to build the team.

Right now, Holland doesn't appear to think that is a viable strategy, or the owners don't think so. Either way, someone in management seems to have the wrong idea on how to actually build a contending team at this point.

 

[Winger98]

Nobody is saying trading is simple. But to absolve Holland of responsibility to use trades to help the team the last however many years because "well it's hard" is strange.

And nobody has said to put the eggs in one basket. However the most tried and true method for acquiring elite players has been in the draft, hence why people want Holland to do a hard rebuild and get us the next franchise player. Right now it is very unlikely we have one. Upon acquiring said elite talent, using trades to supplement that talent and acquiring necessary pieces in free agency would be a solid way to build the team.

Right now, Holland doesn't appear to think that is a viable strategy, or the owners don't think so. Either way, someone in management seems to have the wrong idea on how to actually build a contending team at this point.

The organization doesn't want to take the most probable route to build a cup contending team. They can always strike gold, buck the massive odds against them, and get that franchise player or three in the third or fourth round. The chances of it happening are somewhere between slim to none, but it's there.

Perhaps a bit more troubling might be the belief that I'm now seeing drifted about here that you don't necessarily need elite players. I've seen some variation of the idea that top teams aren't as dominant as they used to be and/or that dominant players aren't as dominant as they used to be. That parity is making it possible to contend with a number of really good players rather than a team of good players led by a core of elite.

I'm hoping we're not trying to build a team of just good players thinking it will be a cup contender at some point without elite talent.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

What is the state of the Red Wings organization?

I would say it's lacking a replacement for their 37 year old #1 center. Lacking a #1 D-man (and let's be honest, probably a #2 as well). One goaltender who's played well but is 33 years old and injury prone, the other is 25 but hasn't put together a full solid season as a starter. A coach under whom almost every player has regressed.

They've got a decent group of supporting forwards and some promising young players, almost all who've been underperforming. They're saddled with a lot of big long term contracts that hinders their ability to make significant moves. And a GM who's been either unable or unwilling to make bold enough moves to address any of the core needs of the team for several seasons now.

 

[SirloinUB]

The organization doesn't want to take the most probable route to build a cup contending team. They can always strike gold, buck the massive odds against them, and get that franchise player or three in the third or fourth round. The chances of it happening are somewhere between slim to none, but it's there.

They are hoping their 1st round picks (not 4th round picks) turn into elite players. And there is no reason to believe they can't draft their own Trouba, Lindholm, Ristolainen, Hamilton, Provorov, Werenski, Fowler, etc. with a top 10 pick.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Can we save the unnecessary dramatizations for TLC?

They are hoping their 1st round picks (not 4th round picks) turn into elite players. And there is no reason to believe they can't draft their own Trouba, Hamilton, Provorov, Werenski, Fowler, etc. with a top 10 pick.

The problem is the Wings need multiple elite players, so that means they need 2-3 prospects to turn into those elite players.

That's basically impossible.

Especially if they are drafting in the 7-10 range over the next 2-3 years.

The amount of talent the Wings need requires the Wings to draft in the top three for multiple seasons to address that deficit in a reasonable time frame.

How many teams have drafted their entire core with no top five picks within 5-6 years? Because the Wings don't have a single potential core player in their system.

 

[Frk It]

They are hoping their 1st round picks (not 4th round picks) turn into elite players. And there is no reason to believe they can't draft their own Trouba, Lindholm, Hamilton, Provorov, Werenski, Fowler, etc. with a top 10 pick.

Except our GM doesn't want top 10 picks, and this year likely doesn't have any of the defenseman you listed above in it.

 

[Bondurant]

The problem is the Wings need multiple elite players, so that means they need 2-3 prospects to turn into those elite players.

That's basically impossible.

Especially if they are drafting in the 7-10 range over the next 2-3 years.

The amount of talent the Wings need requires the Wings to draft in the top three for multiple seasons to address that deficit in a reasonable time frame.

How many teams have drafted their entire core with no top five picks within 5-6 years? Because the Wings don't have a single potential core player in their system.

Agreed. Not only does it take a number of higher picks it also takes a GM that will acknowledge the writing on the wall. Our GM is busy being outshined by his former players.

 

[Winger98]

Except our GM doesn't want top 10 picks, and this year doesn't have any of the defenseman you listed above in it.

exactly. Hoping your 20th pick in the draft pans out is a lot different from hoping your 7th pick in the draft pans out. And even if your 20th pick pans out there is a reason he went 20th, and he's still unlikely to have the pure ceiling of a guy that went top10. Look at Larkin. Kid could still easly make good on his immense promise, but that's still a 2C on good teams.

I'm still hopeful we can get a D out of this draft that becomes our Trouba a few years down the line, though.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

The problem is the Wings need multiple elite players, so that means they need 2-3 prospects to turn into those elite players.

That's basically impossible.

Especially if they are drafting in the 7-10 range over the next 2-3 years.

The amount of talent the Wings need requires the Wings to draft in the top three for multiple seasons to address that deficit in a reasonable time frame.

How many teams have drafted their entire core with no top five picks within 5-6 years? Because the Wings don't have a single potential core player in their system.

This! This right here is what is totally being ignored by the anti-rebuild crowd. Even if we do get extremely lucky and draft a player in the mid-first round that turns out to be one of the top 20 players in the league, it still won't put us on the road to contender status unless we draft other elite players in a relatively condensed window. Our first re-build on the fly wasn't unique because we found an elite player outside of the top of the first round, but that we found two in short order.

 

[jkutswings]

They are hoping their 1st round picks (not 4th round picks) turn into elite players.

They can hope and wish for it all day long, but it's neither a reliable thing to bank on in concept, nor a realistic possibility with any of the players they've drafted in a long time. Here are their last 6 first rounders:
* Cholowski is years away from even playing in the NHL
* Svechnikov is tracking to be another Nyquist/Tatar level guy (not in style, but in tier of talent/value)
* Larkin is either a decent to good wing, or maybe a 2C
* Mantha could be a good 1W if he sorts out his work ethic, but elite is a big stretch
* Riley Sheahan. 'Nuff said.
* Brendan Smith, who is no longer with the team.

And none of their other prospects have shown anything that screams, "I'm the next stud of the league." (Some have been progressing very well, which is great, but nothing head and shoulders above the stats that guys like Kindl and Pulkkanen put up in the developmental leagues, so there's no reason to go crazy just yet.)

Hoping a top-5 pick becomes elite is setting the bar high. Hoping guys drafted 15-25 overall become elite is ridiculous.

 

[Frk It]

They can hope and wish for it all day long, but it's neither a reliable thing to bank on in concept, nor a realistic possibility with any of the players they've drafted in a long time. Here are their last 6 first rounders:
* Cholowski is years away from even playing in the NHL
* Svechnikov is tracking to be another Nyquist/Tatar level guy (not in style, but in tier of talent/value)
* Larkin is either a decent to good wing, or maybe a 2C
* Mantha could be a good 1W if he sorts out his work ethic, but elite is a big stretch
* Riley Sheahan. 'Nuff said.
* Brendan Smith, who is no longer with the team.

And none of their other prospects have shown anything that screams, "I'm the next stud of the league." (Some have been progressing very well, which is great, but nothing head and shoulders above the stats that guys like Kindl and Pulkkanen put up in the developmental leagues, so there's no reason to go crazy just yet.)

Hoping a top-5 pick becomes elite is setting the bar high. Hoping guys drafted 15-25 overall become elite is ridiculous.

They were working under the assumption we will be drafting in the 5-15 range, as opposed to the 15-30 range, like we have been.

 

[jkutswings]

I would say it's lacking a replacement for their 37 year old #1 center. Lacking a #1 D-man (and let's be honest, probably a #2 as well). One goaltender who's played well but is 33 years old and injury prone, the other is 25 but hasn't put together a full solid season as a starter. A coach under whom almost every player has regressed.

They've got a decent group of supporting forwards and some promising young players, almost all who've been underperforming. They're saddled with a lot of big long term contracts that hinders their ability to make significant moves. And a GM who's been either unable or unwilling to make bold enough moves to address any of the core needs of the team for several seasons now.

Pretty much.

Sometimes people like to scour for some fancy and elaborate explanation when things go wrong. But when a team wins very few hockey games without the shootout, and finishes toward the bottom of the standings, and nearly all the metrics rank them very low, and it wasn't because their Hart Trophy candidate missed half the season, it's probably the simple explanation:

They're a bad hockey team. And prioritizing short-term success with a bad hockey team isn't realistic.

 

[SirloinUB]

They were working under the assumption we will be drafting in the 5-15 range, as opposed to the 15-30 range, like we have been.

Exactly. Pretty unfair to suggest we can't get significantly better players inside the top 10 compared to what we got in the bottom 10.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Chicago and Pittsburgh haven't drafted an elite player in 10 years or more. Note: it's unbelievably difficult to draft elite players at all, and even more so when you're drafting in the 20-30 range and trying to compete for cups at the same time. The fact you look at it as this terrible thing that we didn't draft elite players for the last 20 years shows how off your priorities and expectations are. That's 20 years of playoffs, 4 cups, for the most part very successful seasons. I calculated the exact number of teams that have had a 20+ year run of contending (or even just playoffs) and then put together a new, elite core without some bad years first; the number was zero.
Some "mediocre" years on the last legs of an elite core comes with the territory, that's something you have to live with. Due to competent management we stretched the playoff streak longer than most teams are able to, but there was no way we were ever getting a top 5 pick while Datsyuk and Zetterberg were on the team so it made zero sense to kickstart a rebuild sooner. Even just now, Zetterberg was a bit too good for us to get a top 5 pick despite 90% of the rest of the team playing the worst hockey in their careers. But still, a top 10 pick is a huge increase in the odds of finding a good player compared to drafting #20. And we are trending down, so top 5 isn't out of the question next year. All you need is some patience. You can't expect a new house to be ready the day after the old one collapses. At least Holland & Co. have already started to land us some building blocks, even if the foundation is still missing.

you missed the point that was made.

he didn't look it as terrible thing that we've drafted zero elite players in almost two decades. and he's very much willing to be patient. based on kennys comments, he's the one who doesn't have patience if he's actually trying to build a team that makes the playoffs next year, instead of committing to rebuild.

 

[SirloinUB]

Except our GM doesn't want top 10 picks, and this year likely doesn't have any of the defenseman you listed above in it.

Honestly, as long as he doesn't trade 1st and 2nds for 30 year olds, I don't really care what Holland "wants."

I have no issue with playoffs as a goal for the current team. If you make it, awesome, I love playoff hockey regardless of our status as a "contender." If you miss, at worst you pick in the top 15 (probably top 10). And if this team is as bad as many on here want to believe, a top 10 pick is probably inevitable anyway.

 

[Retire91]

Holland has the easy part covered which is the host of good to great role players that can support elite talent, but he has no plan for acquisition of the actual elite talent needed to get past the first round. And somehow a team without any elite talent is spent to the cap. If a team spent to the cap with 0 elite talent doesn't scream incompetent GM I am not sure what does.

 

[Pavels Dog]

you missed the point that was made.

he didn't look it as terrible thing that we've drafted zero elite players in almost two decades. and he's very much willing to be patient. based on kennys comments, he's the one who doesn't have patience if he's actually trying to build a team that makes the playoffs next year, instead of committing to rebuild.

I know the point, but the outlook is just all wrong. It's like winning the cup and saying "damn, we're not getting a very good draft pick this year". The lack of elite players drafted by the Wings in the last 20 years is a direct result of us being so good. Anything but being in this situation would have been a miracle. In fact, it is a miracle that we didn't end up here 10-15 years ago. And Holland can try to build a playoff team, what matters is how he does it. I believe he has the patience to build through the draft and leave our best young players off the table in trade discussions but we'll see.

Holland has the easy part covered which is the host of good to great role players that can support elite talent, but he has no plan for acquisition of the actual elite talent needed to get past the first round. And somehow a team without any elite talent is spent to the cap. If a team spent to the cap with 0 elite talent doesn't scream incompetent GM I am not sure what does.

Z is paid like elite talent
Two goalies paid like #1s, no big deal, one will be moved or lost in expansion
Depth - again no big deal, you move some of it when you need to pay someone elite money
Green - big contract, but short term and easily moved
Franzen - his LTIR cap hit hurts more if we're not spending to the cap

Those are the big reasons we're a cap team. We should keep spending to the cap as long as ownership allows it, which is hopefully for the forseeable future.

 

[Red Stanley]

I would say it's lacking a replacement for their 37 year old #1 center. Lacking a #1 D-man (and let's be honest, probably a #2 as well). One goaltender who's played well but is 33 years old and injury prone, the other is 25 but hasn't put together a full solid season as a starter. A coach under whom almost every player has regressed.

They've got a decent group of supporting forwards and some promising young players, almost all who've been underperforming. They're saddled with a lot of big long term contracts that hinders their ability to make significant moves. And a GM who's been either unable or unwilling to make bold enough moves to address any of the core needs of the team for several seasons now.

This concerns mostly the team rather than the organization as a whole.

 

[Red Stanley]

This! This right here is what is totally being ignored by the anti-rebuild crowd. Even if we do get extremely lucky and draft a player in the mid-first round that turns out to be one of the top 20 players in the league, it still won't put us on the road to contender status unless we draft other elite players in a relatively condensed window. Our first re-build on the fly wasn't unique because we found an elite player outside of the top of the first round, but that we found two in short order.

The Wings have been in (very) slow rebuild mode for years now. Hopefully they'll accelerate this process rapidly now that the streak is over. That is an undeniable reality nobody on this board (to the best of my knowledge) has challenged. In other words: There. Is. No. Anti-rebuild. Crowd.

 

[jkutswings]

I know the point, but the outlook is just all wrong. It's like winning the cup and saying "damn, we're not getting a very good draft pick this year". The lack of elite players drafted by the Wings in the last 20 years is a direct result of us being so good. Anything but being in this situation would have been a miracle. In fact, it is a miracle that we didn't end up here 10-15 years ago. And Holland can try to build a playoff team, what matters is how he does it. I believe he has the patience to build through the draft and leave our best young players off the table in trade discussions but we'll see.


Z is paid like elite talent
Two goalies paid like #1s, no big deal, one will be moved or lost in expansion
Depth - again no big deal, you move some of it when you need to pay someone elite money
Green - big contract, but short term and easily moved
Franzen - his LTIR cap hit hurts more if we're not spending to the cap

Those are the big reasons we're a cap team. We should keep spending to the cap as long as ownership allows it, which is hopefully for the forseeable future.

If this were 2012, I'd be right there with you.

But since then, we've seen 5 years of an obvious decline in success, to the point that the team had no chance at getting anywhere near a championship, and were even heavy underdogs in the first round.

Now does that mean Detroit should have found an elite player by now? No. But I'm not frustrated with the front office simply because of the caliber of talent that has been added to the team over the last several years via the draft. It's the cumulative effect of:

* Significant decline in success
* Many underwhelming draft picks
* Far fewer trades than the rest of the league, including zero impact trades
* A stubborn insistence on retaining role players at excessive cost/term
* Even after falling out of contention, continuing to load up on average to mediocre veterans, rather than letting kids with legit potential get more ice time

Had there not been the Clearys and Legwands, and had there not been years on end of not managing to trade for a defenseman, and had there not been the bloated contracts...By itself, I'd have very little to complain about with Detroit's draft record.

But as people have said before, it's death by a thousand cuts, and all the factors get wrapped up in each other, into one giant mess of frustration.

So now, after having missed the playoffs altogether, and looking like a team that needs a major rebuild...If this front office goes back to the same well of risk-averse, low-ceiling, sneak-into-the-playoffs-and-anything-can-happen thinking ONCE AGAIN...

...I'll have no faith that this franchise will ever be great again until there's a major housecleaning.

And it's a huge shame, because I grew up loving this team, even before The Streak ever started. So I really really hope the philosophy meets reality before they head down the path that returns to the days of giving away a car at each home game to get fans to show up.